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Tschiderer L, Seekircher L, Willeit P, Peters SAE. Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk in Women: Progress so Far and Progress to Come. Int J Womens Health 2023; 15:191-212. [PMID: 36798791 PMCID: PMC9926980 DOI: 10.2147/ijwh.s364012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2022] [Accepted: 02/03/2023] [Indexed: 02/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in women worldwide. Nonetheless, there exist several uncertainties in the prediction, diagnosis, and treatment of cardiovascular disease in women. A cornerstone in the prediction of cardiovascular disease is the implementation of risk scores. A variety of pregnancy- and reproductive-factors have been associated with lower or higher risk of cardiovascular disease. Consequently, the question has been raised, whether these female-specific factors also provide added value to cardiovascular risk prediction. In this review, we provide an overview of the existing literature on sex differences in the association of established cardiovascular risk factors with cardiovascular disease and the relation between female-specific factors and cardiovascular risk. Furthermore, we systematically reviewed the literature for studies that assessed the added value of female-specific factors beyond already established cardiovascular risk factors. Adding female-specific factors to models containing established cardiovascular risk factors has led to little or no significant improvement in the prediction of cardiovascular events. However, analyses primarily relied on data from women aged ≥40 years. Future investigations are needed to quantify whether pregnancy-related factors improve cardiovascular risk prediction in young women in order to support adequate treatment of risk factors and enhance prevention of cardiovascular disease in women.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lena Tschiderer
- Institute of Health Economics, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria,Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands,Correspondence: Lena Tschiderer, Institute of Health Economics, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria, Tel +43 50 504 26272, Email
| | - Lisa Seekircher
- Institute of Health Economics, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Peter Willeit
- Institute of Health Economics, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria,Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Sanne A E Peters
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands,The George Institute for Global Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK,The George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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Maharjan J, Ektefaie Y, Ryan L, Mataraso S, Barnes G, Shokouhi S, Green-Saxena A, Calvert J, Mao Q, Das R. Enriching the Study Population for Ischemic Stroke Therapeutic Trials Using a Machine Learning Algorithm. Front Neurol 2022; 12:784250. [PMID: 35145468 PMCID: PMC8823366 DOI: 10.3389/fneur.2021.784250] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2021] [Accepted: 12/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Strokes represent a leading cause of mortality globally. The evolution of developing new therapies is subject to safety and efficacy testing in clinical trials, which operate in a limited timeframe. To maximize the impact of these trials, patient cohorts for whom ischemic stroke is likely during that designated timeframe should be identified. Machine learning may improve upon existing candidate identification methods in order to maximize the impact of clinical trials for stroke prevention and treatment and improve patient safety. Methods A retrospective study was performed using 41,970 qualifying patient encounters with ischemic stroke from inpatient visits recorded from over 700 inpatient and ambulatory care sites. Patient data were extracted from electronic health records and used to train and test a gradient boosted machine learning algorithm (MLA) to predict the patients' risk of experiencing ischemic stroke from the period of 1 day up to 1 year following the patient encounter. The primary outcome of interest was the occurrence of ischemic stroke. Results After training for optimization, XGBoost obtained a specificity of 0.793, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.194, and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.985. The MLA further obtained an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.88. The Logistic Regression and multilayer perceptron models both achieved AUROCs of 0.862. Among features that significantly impacted the prediction of ischemic stroke were previous stroke history, age, and mean systolic blood pressure. Conclusion MLAs have the potential to more accurately predict the near risk of ischemic stroke within a 1-year prediction window for individuals who have been hospitalized. This risk stratification tool can be used to design clinical trials to test stroke prevention treatments in high-risk populations by identifying subjects who would be more likely to benefit from treatment.
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Xu W, Huang J, Yu Q, Yu H, Pu Y, Shi Q. A systematic review of the status and methodological considerations for estimating risk of first ever stroke in the general population. Neurol Sci 2021; 42:2235-2247. [PMID: 33783660 DOI: 10.1007/s10072-021-05219-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2020] [Accepted: 03/23/2021] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
AIMS The methodological quality of development, validation, and modification of those models have not been evaluated via a thoroughly literature review. This study aims to describe the overall status and evaluate the methodological quality of risk prediction models for stroke incidence in the general population. METHODS We searched the database of EMBASE and MEDLINE by the combination of subject words and key words to collect the research on stroke risk prediction model in the general population. The retrieval time was from the establishment of the database to September 2019. It should be mentioned that risk of bias for each model was assessed, and data on population characteristics and model performance was also extracted. RESULTS The search screened 11,386 peer-reviewed publications and 57 citation searching, of which 48 were included in the review, describing the development of 51 prediction models, 47 external validation models, and 12 modification models. Among 51 development models, the predicted outcome concentrated on fatal or non-fatal stroke (n = 37, 73%). Thirty-nine development models (76%) were without internal validation. C-statistic or AUC was adopted for discrimination in 80% models, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test (n = 25, 49%) was also performed for calibration. Twenty-six development models (53%) were externally validated, among which only 2 (8%) were validated by independent researchers. Risk prediction performance was improved when models were modified by adding novel risk factors, such as the internal carotid artery plaque and intima-media thickness. CONCLUSION Models for predicting stroke occurrence need further external validation, recalibration, or modification in different populations, to help interpret those models in the practice of stroke prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Xu
- School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China
| | - Jiuyi Huang
- Community Prevention Research Unit, Shanghai Institute of Cerebrovascular Disease Prevention, Shanghai, 201203, China
| | - Qingsong Yu
- School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China
| | - Hongfan Yu
- School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China
| | - Yang Pu
- School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China
| | - Qiuling Shi
- School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China.
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Baart SJ, Dam V, Scheres LJJ, Damen JAAG, Spijker R, Schuit E, Debray TPA, Fauser BCJM, Boersma E, Moons KGM, van der Schouw YT. Cardiovascular risk prediction models for women in the general population: A systematic review. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0210329. [PMID: 30620772 PMCID: PMC6324808 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0210329] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2018] [Accepted: 12/20/2018] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
AIM To provide a comprehensive overview of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models for women and models that include female-specific predictors. METHODS We performed a systematic review of CVD risk prediction models for women in the general population by updating a previous review. We searched Medline and Embase up to July 2017 and included studies in which; (a) a new model was developed, (b) an existing model was validated, or (c) a predictor was added to an existing model. RESULTS A total of 285 prediction models for women have been developed, of these 160 (56%) were female-specific models, in which a separate model was developed solely in women and 125 (44%) were sex-predictor models. Out of the 160 female-specific models, 2 (1.3%) included one or more female-specific predictors (mostly reproductive risk factors). A total of 591 validations of sex-predictor or female-specific models were identified in 206 papers. Of these, 333 (56%) validations concerned nine models (five versions of Framingham, SCORE, Pooled Cohort Equations and QRISK). The median and pooled C statistics were comparable for sex-predictor and female-specific models. In 260 articles the added value of new predictors to an existing model was described, however in only 3 of these female-specific predictors (reproductive risk factors) were added. CONCLUSIONS There is an abundance of models for women in the general population. Female-specific and sex-predictor models have similar predictors and performance. Female-specific predictors are rarely included. Further research is needed to assess the added value of female-specific predictors to CVD models for women and provide physicians with a well-performing prediction model for women.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara J. Baart
- Department of Cardiology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- Netherlands Heart Institute, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Veerle Dam
- Netherlands Heart Institute, Utrecht, the Netherlands
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Luuk J. J. Scheres
- Netherlands Heart Institute, Utrecht, the Netherlands
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
- Department of Vascular Medicine, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Johanna A. A. G. Damen
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, the Netherlands
| | - René Spijker
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, the Netherlands
- Clinical Library, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Ewoud Schuit
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, the Netherlands
| | - Thomas P. A. Debray
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, the Netherlands
| | - Bart C. J. M. Fauser
- Department of Reproductive Medicine & Gynaecology, University Medical Center, Utrecht University, the Netherlands
| | - Eric Boersma
- Department of Cardiology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Karel G. M. Moons
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, the Netherlands
| | - Yvonne T. van der Schouw
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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