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Fang J, Zhang F, Lu J, Deng Z, Li X, Chen X, Huang C, Chen Y, Lian L, Peng J, Chen S. Prognostic factors and the necessity of chemotherapy for stage II gastric cancer: a model based on multicenter retrospective study. Discov Oncol 2023; 14:58. [PMID: 37154867 PMCID: PMC10167061 DOI: 10.1007/s12672-023-00663-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2023] [Accepted: 04/17/2023] [Indexed: 05/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study aimed to construct a prognostic model for prognosis prediction and assess the response to adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) of stage II gastric cancer (GC) patients on high and low survival risk stratifications. METHODS We retrospectively reviewed 547 stage II gastric cancer patients who underwent D2 radical gastrectomy from January 2009 to May 2017 in Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University (SAH-SYSU), the Fujian Medical University Union Hospital (FJUUH), and the Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC).The propensity score matching (PSM) of all variables was performed to balance selective bias between ACT and surgery alone (SA) groups. Kaplan-Meier survival and multivariate Cox regression analyses were carried out to identify independent prognostic factors. Independent factors selected by the Cox regression were integrated into the nomogram. The nomogram points stratified patients into high-risk and low-risk groups by the optimal cut-off value. RESULTS 278 patients were selected after PSM. Age, tumor site, T stage and lymph-nodes-examined (LNE) selected by Cox regression as independent prognostic factors were integrated into the nomogram. The nomogram performed well with a C-index of 0.76 and with C-indexes of 0.73 in and 0.71 in two validate cohorts. AUCs of the 3 year and 5 year ROC curves were 0.81 and 0.78. High- and low-risk groups stratified by the cut-off value demonstrated different responses to ACT. CONCLUSIONS The nomogram performed well in prognosis prediction. Patients in high- and low-risk groups demonstrated different responses to ACT, and high-risk patients might need ACT.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiaming Fang
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Department of General Surgery, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, No 26, YuanCun ErHeng Road, TianHe District, Guangzhou, 510655, People's Republic of China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510655, China
| | - Feiyang Zhang
- Department of Gastric Surgery, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jun Lu
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, No. 29 Xinquan Road, Fuzhou, 350001, China
| | - Zijian Deng
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Department of General Surgery, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, No 26, YuanCun ErHeng Road, TianHe District, Guangzhou, 510655, People's Republic of China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510655, China
| | - Xianzhe Li
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Department of General Surgery, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, No 26, YuanCun ErHeng Road, TianHe District, Guangzhou, 510655, People's Republic of China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510655, China
| | - Xijie Chen
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Department of General Surgery, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, No 26, YuanCun ErHeng Road, TianHe District, Guangzhou, 510655, People's Republic of China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510655, China
| | - Changming Huang
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, No. 29 Xinquan Road, Fuzhou, 350001, China
| | - Yingbo Chen
- Department of Gastric Surgery, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, China
| | - Lei Lian
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Department of General Surgery, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, No 26, YuanCun ErHeng Road, TianHe District, Guangzhou, 510655, People's Republic of China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510655, China
| | - Junsheng Peng
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Department of General Surgery, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, No 26, YuanCun ErHeng Road, TianHe District, Guangzhou, 510655, People's Republic of China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510655, China
| | - Shi Chen
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Department of General Surgery, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, No 26, YuanCun ErHeng Road, TianHe District, Guangzhou, 510655, People's Republic of China.
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510655, China.
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Chen YF, Chen MY, Le PH, Chen TH, Kuo CJ, Wang SY, Huang SC, Chou WC, Yeh TS, Hsu JT. Prognostic Factors and the Role of Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Pathological Node-Negative T3 Gastric Cancer. J Pers Med 2023; 13:jpm13030553. [PMID: 36983734 PMCID: PMC10054452 DOI: 10.3390/jpm13030553] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2023] [Revised: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 03/18/2023] [Indexed: 03/30/2023] Open
Abstract
The role of adjuvant chemotherapy in pathological T3N0M0 (pT3N0M0) gastric cancer (GC) remains unclear. The aim of this study was to analyze the prognostic factors of patients with pT3N0M0 GC and to clarify which ones could benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. A total of 137 patients with pT3N0M0 GC were recruited between 1994 and 2020. Clinicopathological factors and adjuvant chemotherapy regimens were retrospectively collected. Prognostic factors of disease-free survival (DFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were determined using univariate and multivariate analyses. The chemotherapy group was younger (p = 0.012), had had more lymph nodes retrieved (p = 0.042) and had higher percentages of vascular invasion (p = 0.021) or perineural invasion (p = 0.030) than the non-chemotherapy group. There were no significant differences in DFS (p = 0.222) and CSS (p = 0.126) between patients treated with or without adjuvant chemotherapy. Stump cancer, tumor size and perineural invasion were associated with higher rates of recurrence. Tumor size was an independent prognostic factor for DFS (hazard ratio, 4.55; confidence interval, 1.59-12.99; p = 0.005) and CSS (hazard ratio, 3.97; confidence interval, 1.38-11.43; p = 0.011). Tumor size independently influenced survival outcomes in pT3N0M0 patients who underwent radical surgery with and without adjuvant chemotherapy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi-Fu Chen
- Department of General Surgery, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Linkou, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 33305, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Yang Chen
- Department of General Surgery, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Linkou, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 33305, Taiwan
| | - Puo-Hsien Le
- Department of Gastroenterology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Linkou, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 33305, Taiwan
| | - Tsung-Hsing Chen
- Department of Gastroenterology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Linkou, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 33305, Taiwan
| | - Chia-Jung Kuo
- Department of Gastroenterology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Linkou, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 33305, Taiwan
| | - Shang-Yu Wang
- Department of General Surgery, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Linkou, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 33305, Taiwan
| | - Shih-Chiang Huang
- Department of Pathology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Linkou, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 33305, Taiwan
| | - Wen-Chi Chou
- Department of Hematology-Oncology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Linkou, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 33305, Taiwan
| | - Ta-Sen Yeh
- Department of General Surgery, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Linkou, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 33305, Taiwan
| | - Jun-Te Hsu
- Department of General Surgery, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Linkou, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 33305, Taiwan
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Deng ZJ, Lu J, Nie RC, Fang JM, Chen XJ, Liu JJ, Li XZ, Chen YB, Huang CM, Lian L, Peng JS, Chen S. Indications for Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Stage II Gastric Cancer After D2 Gastrectomy-A Chinese Multicenter Study. Ann Surg Oncol 2022; 29:8214-8224. [PMID: 35798893 DOI: 10.1245/s10434-022-12108-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2022] [Accepted: 06/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) for patients with stage II gastric cancer remains controversial. This study aimed to explore the indications for adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with stage II gastric cancer by constructing an individual prediction model. PATIENTS AND METHODS In this Chinese multicenter study, a total of 1012 patients with stage II gastric cancer after D2 radical gastrectomy were retrospectively analyzed. All patients were randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 674) or a validation cohort (n = 338). A nomogram was constructed according to the training cohort. Concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were applied to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. ROC curves and stratified survival were used to determine the patients' cutoff score for a benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. An additional 338 patients were used as a validation cohort to validate the feasibility of using this nomogram to guide individualized therapy for patients with stage II gastric cancer. RESULTS Univariate and multivariate analyses illustrated that age, sex, tumor location, size, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), hemoglobin (HB), and T stage were independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS), and they were used to establish a nomogram. The cutoff value was determined by ROC curve analysis, and patients were divided into a high-risk group (< 239 points) and a low-risk group (≥ 239 points). There was no significant difference in the OS of low-risk patients in either the training cohort or the validation cohort. However, the OS of high-risk patients in the AC group was better than that of patients in the surgery-only group. CONCLUSIONS This prediction model can be applied to guide treatment of patients with stage II gastric cancer. High-risk patients (< 239 points) are likely to benefit from AC after D2 radical gastrectomy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zi-Jian Deng
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.,Guangdong Institute of Gastroenterology, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.,Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Jun Lu
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Run-Cong Nie
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Jia-Ming Fang
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.,Guangdong Institute of Gastroenterology, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.,Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Xi-Jie Chen
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.,Guangdong Institute of Gastroenterology, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.,Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Jun-Jie Liu
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.,Guangdong Institute of Gastroenterology, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.,Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Xian-Zhe Li
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.,Guangdong Institute of Gastroenterology, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.,Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Ying-Bo Chen
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Chang-Ming Huang
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Lei Lian
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China. .,Guangdong Institute of Gastroenterology, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China. .,Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.
| | - Jun-Sheng Peng
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China. .,Guangdong Institute of Gastroenterology, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China. .,Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.
| | - Shi Chen
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China. .,Guangdong Institute of Gastroenterology, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China. .,Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.
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Zeng L, Liao Q, Zeng X, Ye J, Yang X, Zhu S, Tang H, Liu G, Cui W, Ma S, Cui S. Noncoding RNAs and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy in advanced gastric cancer. Bioengineered 2022; 13:2623-2638. [PMID: 35089117 PMCID: PMC8973587 DOI: 10.1080/21655979.2021.2021348] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Gastric cancer (GC) is one of the most common malignant tumors globally. About 20-30% of patients with gastric cancer show peritoneal implantation metastasis at the first diagnosis. Peritoneal metastasis is responsible for 70% of deaths of patients with advanced gastric cancer. Although there are many ways to treat advanced gastric cancer, the prognosis of patients with recurrence is unsatisfactory. An auxiliary treatment with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC), is an internationally recognized recommended treatment for advanced gastric cancer. A series of clinical trials have shown that HIPEC significantly improves the overall survival of patients with cancer. Compared with the cytoreductive surgery (CRS) alone, HIPEC combined with CRS markedly reduced the rate of peritoneal metastasis in patients with ovarian cancer and colorectal cancer. It has been demonstrated that HIPEC alters transcription of many genes by affecting non-coding RNAs, which may contribute to the suppressive effect of HIPEC on the synthesis of nucleic acids and proteins in cancer cells. This paper reviews the recent advances in understanding the role of non-coding RNAs in tumor invasion and metastasis of advanced gastric cancer. We also consider changes in noncoding RNA levels and other molecules in advanced gastric cancer cases treated with HIPEC. We hope that our review will provide a reference for future research on molecular epidemiology and etiology of advanced gastric cancer and promote precise treatment of this malignancy using HIPEC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lisi Zeng
- Institute of Oncology, Affiliated Cancer Hospital & Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Quanxing Liao
- Department of the Second Area of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Affiliated Cancer Hospital & Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xiaohui Zeng
- Institute of Oncology, Affiliated Cancer Hospital & Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jiacai Ye
- Department of Radiotherapy, Affiliated Cancer Hospital and Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xianzi Yang
- Department of Medical Oncology, Affiliated Cancer Hospital and Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Siyu Zhu
- Department of Medical Oncology, Affiliated Cancer Hospital and Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Hongsheng Tang
- Department of the Second Area of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Affiliated Cancer Hospital & Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Gaojie Liu
- Department of the Second Area of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Affiliated Cancer Hospital & Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Weiwen Cui
- Department of Bioengineering, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Shaohua Ma
- Institute of Biopharmaceutical and Health Engineering, Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, China.,Tsinghua-Berkeley Shenzhen Institute (TBSI), Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, China
| | - Shuzhong Cui
- Department of the Second Area of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Affiliated Cancer Hospital & Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.,State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
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5
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Deng ZJ, Nie RC, Lu J, Chen XJ, Xiang J, Huang CM, Chen YB, Peng JS, Chen S. Survival analysis of stage II gastric cancer patients after D2 gastrectomy: a Chinese people-based research. BMC Gastroenterol 2021; 21:363. [PMID: 34620108 PMCID: PMC8496033 DOI: 10.1186/s12876-021-01937-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2021] [Accepted: 09/20/2021] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective The benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy is still controversial for stage II gastric cancer patients. This study aims to identify prognostic factors to guide individualized treatment for stage II gastric cancer patients. Methods We retrospectively reviewed 1121 stage II gastric cancer patients who underwent D2 radical gastrectomy from 2007 to 2017 in the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, FuJian Medical School Affiliated Union Hospital and Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center. Propensity score matching was used to ensure that the baseline data were balanced between the adjuvant chemotherapy group and surgery-only group. Kaplan–Meier survival and multivariate Cox regression analyses were carried out to identify independent prognostic factors. Results In univariate analysis, after propensity score matching, age, tumor location, tumor size, CEA, T stage and N stage were associated with overall survival (OS). Multivariate analysis illustrated that age ≥ 60 years old, linitis plastica and T4 were independent risk factors for OS, but lower location and adjuvant chemotherapy were protective factors. Conclusion Stage II gastric cancer patients with adverse prognostic factors (age ≥ 60, linitis plastica and T4) have poor prognosis. Adjuvant chemotherapy may be more beneficial for these patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zi-Jian Deng
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, Guangdong Institute of Gastroenterology, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, No 26, Yuancun Erheng Road, Tianhe District, Guangzhou, 510655, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.,Department of Gastric Surgery, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510655, People's Republic of China
| | - Run-Cong Nie
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Jun Lu
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, No. 29 Xinquan Road, Fuzhou, 350001, People's Republic of China
| | - Xi-Jie Chen
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, Guangdong Institute of Gastroenterology, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, No 26, Yuancun Erheng Road, Tianhe District, Guangzhou, 510655, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.,Department of Gastric Surgery, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510655, People's Republic of China
| | - Jun Xiang
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, Guangdong Institute of Gastroenterology, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, No 26, Yuancun Erheng Road, Tianhe District, Guangzhou, 510655, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.,Department of Gastric Surgery, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510655, People's Republic of China
| | - Chang-Ming Huang
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, No. 29 Xinquan Road, Fuzhou, 350001, People's Republic of China
| | - Ying-Bo Chen
- Department of Gastric Surgery, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Jun-Sheng Peng
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, Guangdong Institute of Gastroenterology, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, No 26, Yuancun Erheng Road, Tianhe District, Guangzhou, 510655, Guangdong, People's Republic of China. .,Department of Gastric Surgery, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510655, People's Republic of China.
| | - Shi Chen
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Diseases, Guangdong Institute of Gastroenterology, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, No 26, Yuancun Erheng Road, Tianhe District, Guangzhou, 510655, Guangdong, People's Republic of China. .,Department of Gastric Surgery, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510655, People's Republic of China.
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Barbour SJ, Canney M, Coppo R, Zhang H, Liu ZH, Suzuki Y, Matsuzaki K, Katafuchi R, Induruwage D, Er L, Reich HN, Feehally J, Barratt J, Cattran DC. Improving treatment decisions using personalized risk assessment from the International IgA Nephropathy Prediction Tool. Kidney Int 2020; 98:1009-1019. [PMID: 32464215 DOI: 10.1016/j.kint.2020.04.042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/31/2019] [Revised: 03/30/2020] [Accepted: 04/02/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Immunosuppression in IgA nephropathy (IgAN) should be reserved for patients at high-risk of disease progression, which KDIGO guidelines determine based solely on proteinuria 1g or more/day. To investigate if treatment decisions can be more accurately accomplished using individualized risk from the International IgAN Prediction Tool, we simulated allocation of a hypothetical immunosuppression therapy in an international cohort of adults with IgAN. Two decision rules for treatment were applied based on proteinuria of 1g or more/day or predicted risk from the Prediction Tool above a threshold probability. An appropriate decision was defined as immunosuppression allocated to patients experiencing the primary outcome (50% decline in eGFR or ESKD) and withheld otherwise. The net benefit and net reduction in treatment are the proportion of patients appropriately allocated to receive or withhold immunosuppression, adjusted for the harm from inappropriate decisions, calculated for all threshold probabilities from 0-100%. Of 3299 patients followed for 5.1 years, 522 (15.8%) experienced the primary outcome. Treatment allocation based solely on proteinuria of 1g or more/day had a negative net benefit (was harmful) because immunosuppression was increasingly allocated to patients without progressive disease. Compared to using proteinuria, treatment allocation using the Prediction Tool had a larger net benefit up to 23.4% (95% confidence interval 21.5-25.2%) and a larger net reduction in treatment up to 35.1% (32.3-37.8%). Thus, allocation of immunosuppression to high-risk patients with IgAN can be substantially improved using the Prediction Tool compared to using proteinuria.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sean J Barbour
- University of British Columbia, Division of Nephrology, Vancouver, Canada; BC Renal, Vancouver, Canada.
| | - Mark Canney
- University of British Columbia, Division of Nephrology, Vancouver, Canada; BC Renal, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Rosanna Coppo
- Molinette Research Foundation, Regina Margherita Hospital, Turin, Italy
| | - Hong Zhang
- Peking University Institute of Nephrology, Beijing, China
| | - Zhi-Hong Liu
- Nanjing University School of Medicine, Nanjing, China
| | - Yusuke Suzuki
- Juntendo University, Faculty of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | | | - Ritsuko Katafuchi
- National Hospital Organization Fukuokahigashi Medical Center, Fukuoka, Japan
| | | | - Lee Er
- BC Renal, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Heather N Reich
- University of Toronto, Division of Nephrology, Toronto, Canada
| | - John Feehally
- The John Walls Renal Unit, Leicester General Hospital, Leicester, UK
| | - Jonathan Barratt
- Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
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