Han SY, Yoon HJ, Kim JH, Lee HS, Chun J, Youn YH, Park H. Nomogram for pre-procedural prediction of non-curative endoscopic resection in patients with early gastric cancer.
Surg Endosc 2023:10.1007/s00464-023-09949-0. [PMID:
36854797 DOI:
10.1007/s00464-023-09949-0]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2022] [Accepted: 02/12/2023] [Indexed: 03/02/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Non-curative resection (non-CR) after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) requires additional surgery due to the possibility of lymph node metastasis (LNM). Therefore, it is important to accurately predict the risk of non-CR to avoid unnecessary preoperative procedures. Thus, we aimed to develop and verify a nomogram to predict the risk of non-CR prior to ESD.
METHODS
Patients who underwent ESD for early gastric cancer (EGC) were divided into CR and non-CR groups based on the present ESD criteria. The pre-procedural factors, such as endoscopic features, radiologic findings, and pathology of the lesion, were compared between the groups to identify the risk factors associated with non-CR. A nomogram was developed using multivariate analysis, and its predictive value was assessed using an external validation group.
RESULTS
Among 824 patients, 682 were curative (82.7%) and 142 were non-curative (17.3%). By comparing two groups, endoscopic features including redness, whitish mucosal change, fold convergence, and large lesion size; histologic features such as moderately or poorly differentiated or signet ring cell carcinoma; and abnormal CT findings including non-specific lymph node enlargement and fold thickening were identified as significant predictors of non-CR. The nomogram was developed based on these predictors and showed good predictive performance in the external validation, with an area under the curve of 0.87.
CONCLUSIONS
We developed a nomogram to predict the risk of non-CR prior to ESD. These predictive factors in addition to the existing ESD criteria can help provide the best treatment option for patients with EGC.
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