Development and validation of a novel competing risk model for predicting survival of esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma: a SEER population-based study and external validation

Fibrinogen-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Was an Independent Predictor of Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients with Clinically Node-Negative Advanced-Stage Gastric Cancer

Purpose

Various hematological indicators have been reported to predict lymph node metastasis (LNM) in gastric cancer (GC) patients, but the relationship between FLR and LNM has not been studied. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the role of preoperative fibrinogen-to-lymphocyte ratio (FLR) in predicting LNM in patients with clinically node-negative (cN0) advanced gastric cancer (AGC).

Patients and Methods

We retrospectively reviewed 571 eligible patients with primary AGC adenocarcinoma who underwent radical gastrectomy (discovery cohort). Patients were divided into high and low FLR groups according to the optimal cutoff value determined by Youden index. FLR is an independent predictor of LNM determined by logistic regression and validated in the validation cohort of 207 patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to evaluate the predictive value of FLR for LNM. The nonlinear relationship between FLR and LNM risk was assessed using restricted cubic spline. Sensitivity analyses were performed according to FLR quartiles to further assess the robustness of the results. The nomogram was built based on FLR and clinicopathological characteristics, and was evaluated by calibration curves, ROC curve analysis and decision curve analysis.

Results

In the discovery cohort, the area under the curve (AUC) value for FLR to predict LNM was 0.592. There is a linear relationship between the FLR value and the risk of LNM, and the risk of LNM increased with FLR value. High FLR level is an independent risk factor for LNM, and the results of sensitivity analysis robust this finding. The nomogram for individual risk assessment performed well. Furthermore, we verified the FLR was an independent predictor of LNM in the validation cohort.

Conclusion

FLR was an independent predictor of LNM in patients with cN0 AGC.

Application of computed tomography-based radiomics in differential diagnosis of adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma at the esophagogastric junction

BACKGROUND

The biological behavior of carcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (CEGJ) is different from that of gastric or esophageal cancer. Differentiating squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (SCCEG) from adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG) can indicate Siewert stage and whether the surgical route for patients with CEGJ is transthoracic or transabdominal, as well as aid in determining the extent of lymph node dissection. With the development of neoadjuvant therapy, preoperative determination of pathological type can help in the selection of neoadjuvant radiotherapy and chemotherapy regimens.

AIM

To establish and evaluate computed tomography (CT)-based multiscale and multiphase radiomics models to distinguish SCCEG and AEG preoperatively.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the preoperative contrasted-enhanced CT imaging data of single-center patients with pathologically confirmed SCCEG (n = 130) and AEG (n = 130). The data were divided into either a training (n = 182) or a test group (n = 78) at a ratio of 7:3. A total of 1409 radiomics features were separately extracted from two dimensional (2D) or three dimensional (3D) regions of interest in arterial and venous phases. Intra-/inter-observer consistency analysis, correlation analysis, univariate analysis, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, and backward stepwise logical regression were applied for feature selection. Totally, six logistic regression models were established based on 2D and 3D multi-phase features. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used for assessing model discrimination performance. Calibration and decision curves were used to assess the calibration and clinical usefulness of the model, respectively.

RESULTS

The 2D-venous model (5 features, AUC: 0.849) performed better than 2D-arterial (5 features, AUC: 0.808). The 2D-arterial-venous combined model could further enhance the performance (AUC: 0.869). The 3D-venous model (7 features, AUC: 0.877) performed better than 3D-arterial (10 features, AUC: 0.876). And the 3D-arterial-venous combined model (AUC: 0.904) outperformed other single-phase-based models. The venous model showed a positive improvement compared with the arterial model (NRI > 0, IDI > 0), and the 3D-venous and combined models showed a significant positive improvement compared with the 2D-venous and combined models (P < 0.05). Decision curve analysis showed that combined 3D-arterial-venous model and 3D-venous model had a higher net clinical benefit within the same threshold probability range in the test group.

CONCLUSION

The combined arterial-venous CT radiomics model based on 3D segmentation can improve the performance in differentiating EGJ squamous cell carcinoma from adenocarcinoma.

Nomograms for Predicting Disease-Free Survival in Patients With Siewert Type II/III Adenocarcinoma of the Esophagogastric Junction Receiving Neoadjuvant Therapy and Radical Surgery

Objective

This study aimed to develop prognostic prediction models for patients with Siewert type II/III adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG) who received neoadjuvant therapy (neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy or neoadjuvant chemotherapy) and radical surgery. A baseline nomogram and a post-operative nomogram were constructed before neoadjuvant therapy and after surgery. The predictive performance of the constructed nomograms was internally validated and compared to the TNM staging system.

Materials and Methods

A total of 245 patients diagnosed with Siewert type II/III AEG and treated with neoadjuvant therapy followed by radical surgery at The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University between January 2011 and December 2017 were enrolled. The variables before neoadjuvant therapy were defined as baseline factors, while the variables of baseline factors along with the variables of treatment and postoperative pathology were defined as post-operative factors. To construct the corresponding nomograms, independent predictors of baseline and post-operative factors were identified. The C-index and a time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the model’s discrimination ability. The calibration ability of the model was determined by comparing the probability of predicted free-recurrence to the actual free-recurrence. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to determine the clinical usefulness of the nomogram.

Results

Among the baseline factors, age, cT stage, cN stage, Borrmann type, and staging laparoscopy were independent prognostic predictors. In contrast, among the post-operative factors, age, cN stage, staging laparoscopy, ypT stage, clinical response, number of positive lymph nodes, number of negative lymph nodes, laurén classification, and lymphatic, or perineural invasion (VELPI) were independent prognostic predictors. The two nomograms were constructed using the independent predictors of prognosis. The C-indexes for the baseline and post-operative nomograms were 0.690 (95% CI, 0.644-0.736) and 0.817 (95% CI, 0.782-0.853), respectively. The AUCs of the baseline nomogram at 3 and 5 years were both greater than cTNM (73.1 vs 58.8, 76.1 vs 55.7). Similarly, the AUCs of the post-operative nomogram were both greater than ypTNM (85.2 vs 69.1, 88.2 vs 71.3) at 3 and 5 years. The calibration curves indicated that both models had a high degree of calibration ability. By comparing the DCA at 3 and 5 years, we determined that the two nomograms constructed had better clinical utility than the TNM staging system.

Conclusions

The constructed nomograms have a more accurate predictive ability than the eighth edition TNM staging system, which can be useful for treatment selection and follow-up monitoring of patients.

A Novel Overall Survival Nomogram Prediction of Secondary Primary Malignancies after Hypopharyngeal Cancer: A Population-Based Study

Objectives

We aimed to construct a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) of patients with secondary primary malignancies (SPMs) after hypopharyngeal cancer (HPC).

Methods

613 HPC patients were included in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2000 and 2018, which were divided into training and validation cohorts. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operation (LASSO) and stepwise Cox regression were used to determine the variables by which a nomogram model was established.

Results

After the LASSO and stepwise Cox regression analysis, the age, year of diagnosis, sites of SPMs, SEER stage of SPMs, surgery for SPMs, and radiotherapy for SPMs were included for model establishment. The ROC curve showed good discrimination for the 3- and 5-year AUC values in the training (0.774 and 0.779, respectively) and validation (0.758 and 0.763, respectively) cohorts. The calibration curve indicated good prognostic accuracy, especially in the 5-year survival prediction for this model. The DCA also demonstrated clinical efficacy over a wide range of threshold probabilities. Lastly, the risk group classified by the individual nomogram values showed significantly different survival outcomes in both training and validation cohorts.

Conclusions

We constructed a nomogram to predict the OS of SPMs after HPC with good clinical values.

Treatment Options for T1 Stage Adenocarcinoma of Esophagogastric Junction: A Real-World Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

The number of patients diagnosed with T1 stage adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction (AEGJ) has been increasing. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of different treatment options (surgery, chemoradiation, and surgery+chemoradiation) on long-term survival in patients with T1-stage AEGJ.

Methods

We searched the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to identify the records of patients with T1-stage AEGJ between 2010 and 2018. Patient demographics and cancer parameters were compared among the three groups. The Kaplan–Meier method and Cox proportional hazard modeling were used to compare long-term survival.

Results

Data from 925 T1 stage AEGJ patients (surgery: n=516, surgery+chemoradiation: n=206, chemoradiation: n=203) were collected. We found that the OS and CSS rates of three treatment options had significant difference. Besides, positive nodal status also showed lower OS and CSS rat. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that surgery group has much lower risk of death compared with chemoradiation group and similar risk of death compared with surgery+chemoradiation group. Subgroup analysis suggested that in patients with N1–N3 status had higher OS and CSS rates in surgery+chemoradiation group.

Conclusion

Using SEER data, we identified a significant survival advantage with the use of surgery compared to chemoradiation in patients with T1-stage AEGJ while the long-term survival of patients after surgery+chemoradiation group was not significantly different and low risk of death in positive nodal status.

A novel risk score system for prognostic evaluation in adenocarcinoma of the oesophagogastric junction: a large population study from the SEER database and our center

Background

The incidence rate of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagogastric junction (AEG) has significantly increased over the past decades, with a steady increase in morbidity. The aim of this study was to explore a variety of clinical factors to judge the survival outcomes of AEG patients.

Methods

We first obtained the clinical data of AEG patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database. Univariate and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression models were used to build a risk score system. Patient survival was analysed using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test. The specificity and sensitivity of the risk score were determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Finally, the internal validation set from the SEER database and external validation sets from our center were used to validate the prognostic power of this model.

Results

We identified a risk score system consisting of six clinical features that can be a good predictor of AEG patient survival. Patients with high risk scores had a significantly worse prognosis than those with low risk scores (log-rank test, P-value < 0.0001). Furthermore, the areas under ROC for 3-year and 5-year survival were 0.74 and 0.75, respectively. We also found that the benefits of chemotherapy and radiotherapy were limited to stage III/IV AEG patients in the high-risk group. Using the validation sets, our novel risk score system was proven to have strong prognostic value for AEG patients.

Conclusions

Our results may provide new insights into the prognostic evaluation of AEG.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08558-1.