Risk factors for hip fracture in New Zealand older adults seeking home care services: a national population cross-sectional study

A machine learning-based scoring system and ten factors associated with hip fracture occurrence in the elderly

Hip fractures are fragility fractures frequently seen in persons over 80-years-old. Although various factors, including decreased bone mineral density and a history of falls, are reported as hip fracture risks, few large-scale studies have confirmed their relevance to individuals older than 80, and tools to assess contributions of various risks to fracture development and the degree of risk are lacking. We recruited 1395 fresh hip fracture patients and 1075 controls without hip fractures and comprehensively evaluated various reported risk factors and their association with hip fracture development. We initially constructed a predictive model using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), a machine learning algorithm, incorporating all 40 variables and evaluated the model's performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), yielding a value of 0.87. We also employed SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values to evaluate each feature importance and ranked the top 20. We then used a stepwise selection method to determine key factors sequentially until the AUC reached a plateau nearly equal to that of all variables and identified the top 10 sufficient to evaluate hip fracture risk. For each, we determined the cutoff value for hip fracture occurrence and calculated scores of each variable based on the respective feature importance. Individual scores were: serum 25(OH)D levels (<10 ng/ml, score 7), femoral neck T-score (<-3, score 5), Barthel index score (<100, score 3), maximal handgrip strength (<18 kg, score 3), GLFS-25 score (≥24, score 2), number of falls in previous 12 months (≥3, score 2), serum IGF-1 levels (<50 ng/ml, score 2), cups of tea/day (≥5, score -2), use of anti-osteoporosis drugs (yes, score -2), and BMI (<18.5 kg/m2, score 1). Using these scores, we performed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and the resultant optimal cutoff value was 7, with a specificity of 0.78, sensitivity of 0.75, and AUC of 0.85. These ten factors and the scoring system may represent tools useful to predict hip fracture.

Rehabilitation interventions for persons with hip fracture and cognitive impairment: A scoping review

Background

Hip fractures are common fall-related injuries, with rehabilitation and recovery often complicated by cognitive impairment. Understanding what interventions exist, and in what settings, for people with hip fracture and co-occurring cognitive impairment is important in order to provide more evidence on rehabilitation and related outcomes for this population.

Objective

To examine the extent, nature, and range of literature on rehabilitation interventions for adults with hip fracture and cognitive impairment.

Methods

Articles were required to: include an adult population with hip fracture and cognitive impairment, include a rehabilitation intervention, and be published between January 1, 2000 and November 19, 2021. Articles were excluded if they were opinion pieces, study protocols, conference abstracts, or if they did not describe the rehabilitation intervention. Relevant articles were searched on the following electronic databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL Plus, APA PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and the Physiotherapy Evidence Database. All articles were double-screened by two reviewers and disagreements were resolved through consensus. Data were extracted and synthesized using descriptive approaches.

Results

Seventeen articles were included in this scoping review. We identified a variety of interventions targeting this population; about half were specific to physical rehabilitation, with the other half incorporating components that addressed multiple aspects of the care journey. Interventions had varying outcomes and no studies qualitatively explored patient or family experiences. All intervations were initiated in hospital, with less than half including cross-sectoral components. About half of the articles described modifying or tailoring the intervention to the participants’ needs, but there was limited information on how to adapt rehabilitation interventions for individuals with cognitive impairment.

Conclusions

More work is need to better understand patient, family, and provider experiences with rehabilitation interventions, how to tailor interventions for those with cognitive impairment, and how to successfully implement sustainable interventions across sectors.

Factors influencing performances and indicating risk of falls using the true Timed Up and Go test time of patients with hip fracture upon acute hospital discharge

OBJECTIVE

To examine the influence and risk of falls of individual factors on timed up and go test (TUG) times using standardized instructions in patients with hip fracture upon discharge from an acute orthopaedic hip fracture unit.

METHODS

Following instructions, the TUG was performed three times with a rollator (standardized aid), as fast as safely possible. Up to a 1-min rest was given after the first and second TUG trial. Multivariable linear regression analysis was used to investigate the factors influencing TUG-times and corresponding logistic analysis was used to investigate factors indicating risk of falls, using a cut-off of 24 s for TUG.

RESULTS

A total of 181 patients (122 women), 60 years or older, with a mean (SD) age of 78.1 (9.1) years were studied. The fastest of three TUG trials performed within a mean of 10.0 (5.2) post-surgery days and used in analyses reached a mean of 25.6 (11.0) s. Multivariable regression analysis showed that greater age (B = 0.24; 2.4s more per decade older), a low pre-fracture function level (New Mobility Score <7 points, B = 6.4s more than high level), having a trochanteric fracture (B = 6.2 s, vs. cervical), and the post-surgery day of testing (B = 0.42, 4.2s per 10 days later) were independently associated with using more time for performing the TUG. Correspondingly, the same four factors indicated an increased risk of falls in the logistic analysis. The linear model explained 28% of the variance on TUG, while the accuracy of the logistic model to predict patients having TUG≥24 s was 69%.

CONCLUSION

The age, pre-fracture function, fracture type and post-surgery day of TUG testing were identified as strong factors influencing TUG performances and TUG-times indicating risk of falls in patients with hip fracture. We suggest that these factors be considered when interpreting TUG test results and in further rehabilitation and fall prevention efforts.

The risk of hip and non-vertebral fractures in patients with Parkinson's disease and parkinsonism: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disorder that is common in older individuals. PD patients have an increased risk of fractures compared to the general population, perhaps due to multiple falls. However, the fracture risk has not been fully assessed. To assess the impact of PD on the risk of hip and non-vertebral fractures, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis. Comprehensive searches of three key bibliographic databases were conducted to identify reviews and primary studies relating to the risk of fractures in patients with PD. Search terms included all relevant terms for Parkinson's disease and for fractures. We selected observational studies with data on the risk of fractures in adults with PD compared to controls without the diagnosis. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale. The random-effects model was used to pool the results. Eighteen studies were included in the review. Seventeen independent studies (14 cohort and 3 case-control studies) were included in the hip fracture analysis. Nine studies (all cohorts, no case-control studies) were included in the non-vertebral fracture analysis. Study quality was judged to be moderate to good. Overall, PD patients had an increased risk for both hip fractures (2.40, 95% CI 2.04 to 2.82) and non-vertebral fractures (1.80, 95% CI 1.60 to 2.01) compared to controls. The relative risk for hip fractures was higher in men (2.93, 95% CI 2.05 to 4.18) than in women (1.81, 95% CI 1.61 to 2.04). There were no effects of the study design, geographical region, or criteria for diagnosing Parkinson's disease on these estimates of fracture risk. There is an increase in the risk of hip and non-vertebral fractures in patients with Parkinson's disease and we recommend a re-evaluation of the clinical guidelines on bone health in patients with PD to address this.