Long-term care use after a stroke or femoral fracture and the role of family caregivers

Establishment and validation of a nomogram for predicting the risk of hip fracture in patients with stroke: A multicenter retrospective study

PURPOSE

There are currently no models for predicting hip fractures after stroke. This study wanted to investigate the risk factors leading to hip fracture in stroke patients and to establish a risk prediction model to visualize this risk.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We reviewed 439 stroke patients with or without hip fractures admitted to the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from June 2014 to June 2017 as the training set, and collected 83 patients of the same type from the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University and the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from June 2020 to June 2023 as the testing set. Patients were divided into fracture group and non-fracture group based on the presence of hip fractures. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen for meaningful factors. Nomogram predicting the risk of hip fracture occurrence were created based on the multifactor analysis, and performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). A web calculator was created to facilitate a more convenient interactive experience for clinicians.

RESULTS

In training set, there were 35 cases (7.9 %) of hip fractures after stroke, while in testing set, this data was 13 cases (15.6 %). In training set, univariate analysis showed significant differences between the two groups in the number of falls, smoking, hypertension, glucocorticoids, number of strokes, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), visual acuity level, National Institute of Health stroke scale (NIHSS), Berg Balance Scale (BBS), and Stop Walking When Talking (SWWT) (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that number of falls [OR=17.104, 95 % CI (3.727-78.489), P = 0.000], NIHSS [OR=1.565, 95 % CI (1.193-2.052), P = 0.001], SWWT [OR=12.080, 95 % CI (2.398-60.851), P = 0.003] were independent risk factors positively associated with new fractures. BMD [OR = 0.155, 95 % CI (0.044-0.546), P = 0.012] and BBS [OR = 0.840, 95 % CI (0.739-0.954), P = 0.007] were negatively associated with new fractures. The area under the curve (AUC) of nomogram were 0.939 (95 % CI: 0.748-0.943) and 0.980 (95 % CI: 0.886-1.000) in training and testing sets, respectively, and the calibration curves showed a high agreement between predicted and actual status with an area under the decision curve of 0.034 and 0.109, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of falls, fracture history, low BBS score, high NIHSS score, and positive SWWT are risk factors for hip fracture after stroke. Based on this, a nomogram with high accuracy was developed and a web calculator (https://stroke.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/) was created.

Factors Associated with the Utilization of Home and Community-Based Services (HCBS) Among Older Adults: A Systematic Review of the Last Decade

Home and community-based services (HCBS) for older adults have been promoted worldwide to address the growing problems of aging. This systematic review included 59 studies published from 2013 to 2023 to explore factors influencing the utilization of HCBS among older adults. The review identified 15 common factors grouped into four levels of influence: individual, inter-relationship, community, and social contextual levels. The findings suggest that HCBS utilization is a dynamic process influenced by multiple factors at different levels. Gerontological social work should incorporate ecological thinking to improve practice and strengthen caregiver-recipient relationships.

Trajectories of Disability and Long-Term Care Utilization After Acute Health Events

Hip fractures, strokes, and heart attacks are common acute health events that can lead to long-term disability, care utilization, and unmet needs. However, such impacts, especially in the long term, are not fully understood. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, 1992-2018, this study examines the long-term trajectories of individuals suffering such health shocks, comparing with individuals not experiencing health shocks. Hip fracture, stroke, and heart attack are confirmed to have severe implications for disability. In most cases of stroke and heart attack, informal caregivers provide the daily support needed by survivors, whereas following hip fracture, nursing home care is more relevant. These health shocks put individuals on worse trajectories of disability, care utilization, and unmet needs. There is no long-term recovery or convergence with individuals who do not suffer shocks. Unmet need is prevalent, even pre-shock and among individuals who do not experience health shocks, emphasizing the importance of preventative care measures. These findings support policy action to ensure hospitalized individuals, especially those aged 50 and above, receive rehabilitative services and other post-acute care. Furthermore, hospitalization is an event that requires the detection and addressing of unmet care needs beyond the short run.

Well-being right before and after a permanent nursing home admission

Permanent nursing home (NH) admissions are a frequent and major life event aimed at maintaining quality of life in old age. Yet, insights into the impact of a NH admission on well-being are scarce and inconclusive. We evaluate the effect of a NH admission on domains of well-being among those who are admitted using event study methodology for cross-sections combined with inverse probability weighting. We apply this doubly robust approach to Dutch survey data on well-being linked to extensive administrative data on NH admissions, health, and socio-economic status. We find that a NH admission leads to a temporary increase in loneliness, the risk of anxiety and depression, and a loss of control over one's life. However, these scores revert to pre-admission levels after 6 months. These findings may contribute to better-informed individual-level and policy decisions about potential NH entry and aging in place policies.

Application of machine learning model to predict lacunar cerebral infarction in elderly patients with femoral neck fracture before surgery

BACKGROUND

Femoral neck fracture and lacunar cerebral infarction (LCI) are the most common diseases in the elderly. When LCI patients undergo a series of traumas such as surgery, their postoperative recovery results are often poor. Moreover, few studies have explored the relationship between LCI and femoral neck fracture in the elderly. Therefore, this study will develop a ML (machine learning)-based model to predict LCI before surgery in elderly patients with a femoral neck fracture.

METHODS

Professional medical staff retrospectively collected the data of 161 patients with unilateral femoral neck fracture who underwent surgery in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University database from January 1, 2015, to January 1, 2020. Patients were divided into two groups based on LCI (diagnosis based on cranial CT image): the LCI group and the non-LCI group. Preoperative clinical characteristics and preoperative laboratory data were collected for all patients. Features were selected by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, with age, white blood cell (WBC), prealbumin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total protein, globulin, serum creatinine (Scr), blood urea nitrogen (Bun)/Scr, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), serum sodium and fibrinogen as the features of the ML model. Five machine learning algorithms, Logistic regression (LR), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Decision tree (DT), were used in combination with preoperative clinical characteristics and laboratory data to establish a predictive model of LCI in patients with a femoral neck fracture. Furthermore, indices like the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were calculated to test the models' performance.

RESULTS

The AUROC of 5 ML models ranged from 0.76 to 0.95. It turned out that the RF model demonstrated the highest performance in predicting LCI for femoral neck fracture patients before surgery, whose AUROC was 0.95, sensitivity 1.00, specificity 0.81, and accuracy 0.90 in validation sets. Furthermore, the top 4 high-ranking variables in the RF model were prealbumin, fibrinogen, globulin and Scr, in descending order of importance.

CONCLUSION

In this study, 5 ML models were developed and validated for patients with femoral neck fracture to predict preoperative LCI. RF model provides an excellent predictive value with an AUROC of 0.95. Clinicians can better conduct multidisciplinary perioperative management for patients with femoral neck fractures through this model and accelerate the postoperative recovery of patients.

Patients experience a need for informal care after a fragility fracture

In this qualitative secondary analysis, patients with a fragility fracture described needing informal care post-fracture. A significant proportion reported receiving no care or not enough care, often devising strategies to care for themselves. Requesting help from multiple individuals allowed patients to minimize the burden to family and friends.

INTRODUCTION

In individuals with fragility fractures, our objectives were to examine (1) the experience of receiving informal care post-fracture; and (2) how these care experiences influenced post-fracture recovery and subsequent management of bone health.

METHODS

A secondary analysis of six primary qualitative studies was conducted. Individuals in the primary studies were English-speaking women and men, 45 years and older, who were living in the community and had sustained a recent fragility fracture or reported a history of previous fragility fractures. Participants who reported at least one instance of needing informal care were categorized as receiving "enough care", "insufficient care", or "no care".

RESULTS

Of 145 participants in the primary studies, 109 (75%) described needing informal care after their fracture. Of those needing care, 62 (57%) were categorized as receiving enough care while 47 (43%) were categorized as receiving insufficient or no care. The care needed affected the management of participants' fracture and bone health, including access to health care services. Participants who received insufficient or no care, especially those living alone, devised strategies to care for themselves and often requested help from multiple individuals to minimize the burden to family and friends. Compared with men, women appeared to report needing help with personal daily activities, such as bathing, and transportation to appointments related to bone health.

CONCLUSION

Informal care needs are an additional burden of fragility fractures. Post-fracture interventions should consider the broader context of patients' lives and potentially support the care needs of patients as part of their services.

Association Between Cemented vs Cementless Hemiarthroplasty and Short-Term Change of In-Hospital Mortality in Elderly Patients with Femoral Neck Fracture: A Propensity-Score Matching Analysis in a Multicenter Database

Objective

Cemented hemiarthroplasty is recommended for the vulnerable hip fracture population because of beneficial long-term outcomes. However, the association between cemented hemiarthroplasty and short-term mortality is controversial. To increase a preparedness of potential complication after cemented hemiarthroplasty, we aimed to evaluate the trajectory of the effect of cemented hemiarthroplasty on short-term in-hospital outcomes.

Methods

We investigated in-hospital mortality and complications between cemented hemiarthroplasty and cementless hemiarthroplasty using a nationwide multicenter database from 2010 to 2016 with a propensity-score matching analysis. We analyzed in-hospital mortality from 1 to 14 days after surgery. We also investigated in-hospital complications that may associate with mortality.

Results

After matching of 31,322 cases, we found no significant difference in 30-day in-hospital mortality between the cemented and cementless hemiarthroplasty groups (hazard ratio, HR [95% confidence interval, CI], 1.2 [0.89-1.6], p = 0.23). However, the 1- to 10-day postoperative mortality rates were significantly higher in the cemented group and the association becomes weaker as the postoperative period increased (day 1; HR [95% CI]: 3.5 [1.6-7.68]; day 10; HR [95% CI]: 1.59 [1.07-2.37]). The incidence of stroke and intensive care unit (ICU) admission was also significantly higher in the cemented group.

Conclusion

Cemented hemiarthroplasty was not significantly associated with an increase in overall in-hospital mortality but was significantly associated with short-term mortality from 1-day to 10-day after surgery. The incidence of stroke and ICU admission was also significantly higher in the cemented group. Surgeons should pay more attention to the risk of mortality and stroke in patients undergoing cemented hemiarthroplasty, especially in the early days of hospitalization.