The impact of aggregating serogroups in dynamic models of Neisseria meningitidis transmission

Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of universal meningitis b vaccination among college students prior to college entry

OBJECTIVES

University students are at significantly higher risk of serogroup B meningococcal (MenB) infection, which can result in debilitating sequelae and excessive healthcare usage. This study aimed to elucidate the impact of universal pre-enrollment vaccination on MenB outbreak probability and the cost-effectiveness in outbreak-only scenarios.

METHODS

We developed an infectious disease transmission model to determine the number of outbreaks averted under universal vaccination and a Markov model to simulate the costs accrued and QALYs lost associated with infection. The analysis was done on a hypothetical population of 40,000 college students over a four-year time frame. We used the outputs of these two models to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of universal MenB vaccination from a societal perspective.

RESULTS

We find that the vaccination strategy was estimated to reduce MenB incidence by 63% and outbreak frequency rate by 90%. Under base case assumptions, the ICER of universal vaccination was $748,129 per QALY and in outbreak-only scenarios, it was cost-saving.

CONCLUSIONS

Universal vaccination is not cost-effective at the current low MenB incidence levels and vaccine price in the U.S., but it is cost-saving if outbreak is imminent.

Protecting the most vulnerable age group: a review of MenACWY-TT immunogenicity and safety in infants

INTRODUCTION

Neisseria meningitidis causes invasive meningococcal disease (IMD), with the highest incidence observed in infants and young children. Meningococcal serogroups A, B, C, W, X, and Y account for almost all IMD cases worldwide. Available meningococcal vaccines targeting serogroups A, C, W, and Y (MenACWY) include those conjugated to diphtheria toxoid (MenACWY-D), diphtheria protein cross-reactive material 197 (MenACWY-CRM₁₉₇), and tetanus toxoid (MenACWY-TT). MenACWY-TT is indicated for use starting at 6 weeks of age.

AREAS COVERED

This review discusses data from the four primary studies assessing MenACWY-TT safety and immunogenicity in infants, which evaluated a variety of dosing schedules, short-term and long-term outcomes, and impact of coadministration on the immunogenicity of routine childhood vaccines. Remaining gaps in the field are addressed.

EXPERT OPINION

Robust data support the use of MenACWY-TT in infants starting as early as 6 weeks of age. MenACWY-TT was safe and well tolerated in infants, was immunogenic after priming and booster, and demonstrated persistent immunogenicity. Lower persistence for serogroup A relative to other serogroups based on serum bactericidal assays (SBAs) using human complement appears to be a class effect of MenACWY conjugate vaccines. Correlates of protection other than SBA are being explored, including immunologic responses associated with different carrier proteins.

Carriage rates and risk factors during an outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease due to Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C ST-11 (cc11) in Tuscany, Italy: a cross-sectional study

Background

During 2015–2016 an outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease due to N. meningitidis serogroup C ST-11 (cc11) occurred in Tuscany, Italy. The outbreak affected mainly the age group 20–30 years, men who have sex with men, and the area located between the cities of Firenze, Prato and Empoli, with discos and gay-venues associated-clusters. A cross-sectional-survey was conducted to assess the prevalence and risk factors for meningococcal-carriage, in order to address public health interventions.

Methods

A convenience sample of people aged 11–45 years provided oropharyngeal swab specimens and completed questionnaires on risk factors for meningococcal carriage during a 3 months study-period, conducted either in the outbreak-area and in a control-area not affected by the outbreak (cities of Grosseto and Siena). Isolates were tested by culture plus polymerase chain reaction. Serogroup C meningococcal isolates were further characterized using multilocus sequence typing. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to estimate adjusted odds ratios (AORs) for meningococcal carriage.

Results

A total of 2285 oropharyngeal samples were collected. Overall, meningococcal carriage prevalence was 4.8% (n = 110), with nonencapsulated meningococci most prevalent (2.3%; n = 52). Among encapsulated meningococci, serogroup B was the most prevalent (1.8%; n = 41), followed by serogroup Y (0.5%; n = 11) and serogroup C (0.2%; n = 4); one carrier of serogroup E and one of serogroup Z, were also found (0.04%). Three individuals from the city of Empoli were found to carry the outbreak strain, C:ST-11 (cc11); this city also had the highest serogroup C carriage prevalence (0.5%). At the multivariate analyses, risk factors for meningococcal carriage were: illicit-drugs consumption (AOR 6.30; p < 0.01), active smoking (AOR 2.78; p = 0.01), disco/clubs/parties attendance (AOR 2.06; p = 0.04), being aged 20–30 years (AOR 3.08; p < 0.01), and have had same-sex intercourses (AOR 6.69; p < 0.01).

Conclusions

A low prevalence of meningococcal serogroup C carriage in an area affected by an outbreak due to the hypervirulent N. meningitidis serogroup C ST-11 (cc11) strain was found. The city of Empoli had the highest attack-rate during the outbreak and also the highest meningococcal serogroup C carriage-prevalence due to the outbreak-strain. Multivariate analyses underlined a convergence of risk factors, which partially confirmed those observed among meningococcal outbreak-cases, and that should be considered in targeted immunization campaigns.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3598-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Impact of meningococcal C conjugate vaccination programs with and without catch-up campaigns in adolescents: Lessons learned from Bahia, Brazil

The significant increase in the incidence rates and ongoing outbreaks of serogroup C meningococcal (MenC) disease, associated with the sequence type-103 complex, motivated the incorporation of the meningococcal C conjugate (MCC) vaccine in the routine immunization program in the State of Bahia, Brazil in early 2010, targeting children younger than 5 years of age. In its capital, Salvador, the program also included a catch-up campaign for individuals 10-24 years of age. We performed an observational, ecological study, analyzing data collected from 2007 to 2015, to compare the impact of these two immunization strategies on meningococcal disease incidence and mortality rates. In Salvador, following the vaccination program, a dramatic early impact on MenC disease and mortality rates could be observed, with significant reductions in incidence rates of MenC disease in all age groups, including individuals that were too old to have been vaccinated, indicating the presence of herd protection. Compared to the pre-vaccine period, a virtual disappearance of MenC disease was observed in 2015. However, in the state of Bahia (excluding the city of Salvador), no herd protection could be observed, with significant impact only among vaccine-eligible children within 5 years of introduction of the MCC vaccination program. These results highlight the importance of catch-up campaigns, including adolescents and young adults, to induce herd protection compared to immunization strategies restricted to infants and young children. This information is crucial for identifying optimal immunization policies and future strategies, focused on adolescents, to optimize the impact of MCC vaccination programs.

Lessons from a decade of individual-based models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2006-2015)

Background

Individual-based models (IBMs) are useful to simulate events subject to stochasticity and/or heterogeneity, and have become well established to model the potential (re)emergence of pathogens (e.g., pandemic influenza, bioterrorism). Individual heterogeneity at the host and pathogen level is increasingly documented to influence transmission of endemic diseases and it is well understood that the final stages of elimination strategies for vaccine-preventable childhood diseases (e.g., polio, measles) are subject to stochasticity. Even so it appears IBMs for both these phenomena are not well established. We review a decade of IBM publications aiming to obtain insights in their advantages, pitfalls and rationale for use and to make recommendations facilitating knowledge transfer within and across disciplines.

Methods

We systematically identified publications in Web of Science and PubMed from 2006-2015 based on title/abstract/keywords screening (and full-text if necessary) to retrieve topics, modeling purposes and general specifications. We extracted detailed modeling features from papers on established vaccine-preventable childhood diseases based on full-text screening.

Results

We identified 698 papers, which applied an IBM for infectious disease transmission, and listed these in a reference database, describing their general characteristics. The diversity of disease-topics and overall publication frequency have increased over time (38 to 115 annual publications from 2006 to 2015). The inclusion of intervention strategies (8 to 52) and economic consequences (1 to 20) are increasing, to the detriment of purely theoretical explorations. Unfortunately, terminology used to describe IBMs is inconsistent and ambiguous. We retrieved 24 studies on a vaccine-preventable childhood disease (covering 7 different diseases), with publication frequency increasing from the first such study published in 2008. IBMs have been useful to explore heterogeneous between- and within-host interactions, but combined applications are still sparse. The amount of missing information on model characteristics and study design is remarkable.

Conclusions

IBMs are suited to combine heterogeneous within- and between-host interactions, which offers many opportunities, especially to analyze targeted interventions for endemic infections. We advocate the exchange of (open-source) platforms and stress the need for consistent “branding”. Using (existing) conventions and reporting protocols would stimulate cross-fertilization between research groups and fields, and ultimately policy making in decades to come.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-017-2699-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Fast and accurate dynamic estimation of field effectiveness of meningococcal vaccines

BACKGROUND

Estimating the effectiveness of meningococcal vaccines with high accuracy and precision can be challenging due to the low incidence of the invasive disease, which ranges between 0.5 and 1 cases per 100,000 in Europe and North America. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) is usually estimated with a screening method that combines in one formula the proportion of meningococcal disease cases that have been vaccinated and the proportion of vaccinated in the overall population. Due to the small number of cases, initial point estimates are affected by large uncertainties and several years may be required to estimate VE with a small confidence interval.

METHODS

We used a Monte Carlo maximum likelihood (MCML) approach to estimate the effectiveness of meningococcal vaccines, based on stochastic simulations of a dynamic model for meningococcal transmission and vaccination. We calibrated the model to describe two immunization campaigns: the campaign against MenC in England and the Bexsero campaign that started in the UK in September 2015. First, the MCML method provided estimates for both the direct and indirect effects of the MenC vaccine that were validated against results published in the literature. Then, we assessed the performance of the MCML method in terms of time gain with respect to the screening method under different assumptions of VE for Bexsero.

RESULTS

MCML estimates of VE for the MenC immunization campaign are in good agreement with results based on the screening method and carriage studies, yet characterized by smaller confidence intervals and obtained using only incidence data collected within 2 years of scheduled vaccination. Also, we show that the MCML method could provide a fast and accurate estimate of the effectiveness of Bexsero, with a time gain, with respect to the screening method, that could range from 2 to 15 years, depending on the value of VE measured from field data.

CONCLUSIONS

Results indicate that inference methods based on dynamic computational models can be successfully used to quantify in near real time the effectiveness of immunization campaigns against Neisseria meningitidis. Such an approach could represent an important tool to complement and support traditional observational studies, in the initial phase of a campaign.