Mortality estimates among adult patients with severe acute respiratory infections from two sentinel hospitals in southern Arizona, United States, 2010-2014

Post-discharge mortality among patients hospitalised with severe acute respiratory infection, Bangladesh, 2012-2019: a prospective observational study

Background

Enhancing outcomes post-hospitalisation requires an understanding of predictive factors for adverse events. This study aimed to estimate post-discharge mortality rates among patients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Bangladesh, identify associated factors, and document reported causes of death.

Methods

From January 2012 to December 2019, we conducted follow-up calls to patients or their families 30 days after discharge to assess the status of patients with SARI. Proportions of deaths within 30 days of discharge were estimated, and a comparative analysis of demographics, clinical characteristics, and influenza illness between decedents and survivors was performed using multivariable Cox regression models.

Findings

Among 23,360 patients with SARI (median age: 20 years, IQR: 1.5-48, 65% male), 351 (1.5%) died during hospitalisation. Of 23,009 patients alive at discharge, 20,044 (87%) were followed, with 633 (3.2%) deaths within 30 days of discharge. In children (<18 years), difficulty breathing (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.8; 95% CI 1.1-3.0), longer hospital stay (aHR 1.1; 95% CI 1.1-1.1), and heart diseases (aHR 8.5; 95% CI 3.2-23.1) were associated with higher post-discharge death risk. Among adults (≥18 years), difficulty breathing (aHR 2.3; 95% CI 1.7-3.0), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aHR 1.7; 95% CI 1.4-2.2), and intensive care unit admission (aHR 5.2; 95% CI 1.9-14.0) were linked to elevated post-discharge death risk. Influenza virus was detected in 13% (46/351) of in-hospital SARI deaths and 10% (65/633) of post-discharge SARI deaths.

Interpretation

Nearly one in twenty patients with SARI died during hospitalisation or within 1 month of discharge, with two-thirds of deaths occurring post-discharge. Seasonal influenza vaccination is recommended to mitigate influenza-associated mortality. To enhance post-discharge outcomes, hospitals should consider developing safe-discharge algorithms, reinforcing post-discharge care plans, and establishing outpatient monitoring for recently discharged patients.

Funding

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia, USA [U01GH002259].

Predictors of Severity of Influenza-Related Hospitalizations: Results From the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network (GIHSN)

BACKGROUND

The Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network (GIHSN) has since 2012 provided patient-level data on severe influenza-like-illnesses from >100 participating clinical sites worldwide based on a core protocol and consistent case definitions.

METHODS

We used multivariable logistic regression to assess the risk of intensive care unit admission, mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital death among hospitalized patients with influenza and explored the role of patient-level covariates and country income level.

RESULTS

The data set included 73 121 patients hospitalized with respiratory illness in 22 countries, including 15 660 with laboratory-confirmed influenza. After adjusting for patient-level covariates we found a 7-fold increase in the risk of influenza-related intensive care unit admission in lower middle-income countries (LMICs), compared with high-income countries (P = .01). The risk of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death also increased by 4-fold in LMICs, though these differences were not statistically significant. We also find that influenza mortality increased significantly with older age and number of comorbid conditions. Across all severity outcomes studied and after controlling for patient characteristics, infection with influenza A/H1N1pdm09 was more severe than with A/H3N2.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides new information on influenza severity in underresourced populations, particularly those in LMICs.

Characterizing deaths among adult patients with severe acute respiratory infection: during the pre- and COVID-19 pandemic periods in Bangladesh, 2018-2022

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) is a leading cause of mortality globally, peaking during the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed SARI-associated deaths during the pre-and-pandemic periods in Bangladesh to identify the contributing factors.

METHODS

We analyzed data from hospital-based influenza surveillance at nine tertiary-level hospitals in Bangladesh. We considered March 2018-February 2020 as the pre-pandemic period and March 2020-February 2022 as the pandemic period and included adult (≥ 18 years) participants in our study. Surveillance physicians identified WHO-SARI case definition meeting inpatients and collected demographics, clinical characteristics, and outcomes at hospital discharge and 30 days post-discharge. We performed rRT-PCR for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses on collected nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs. We used multivariable Cox's regression models to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) for factors associated with SARI deaths in these adult patients.

RESULTS

We enrolled 4392 SARI patients during the pre-pandemic and 3824 SARI patients during the pandemic period. Case fatality ratio was higher during the pandemic: 13.62% (521) [in-hospital: 6.45% (247); post-discharge: 7.17% (274)] compared to pre-pandemic, 6.01% (264) [in-hospital: 2.01% (89), post-discharge: 4% (175)] (p < 0.001). Pre-pandemic, influenza was detected in 14% (37/264) of SARI deaths. Influenza was detected during the pandemic in 2.3% (12/521), SARS-CoV-2 in 41.8% (218/521), and both viruses in only one SARI death. History of smoking and the presence of 1 or more co-morbid conditions independently attributed to SARI deaths in adults in the pre-pandemic period. SARI deaths in such patients were also associated with respiratory difficulties on admission in both pre-pandemic (aHR 2.36; 95% CI:1.65-3.36) and pandemic period (aHR 2.30; 95% CI: 1.57-3.35) after accounting for age, sex, smoking status, presence of 1 or more co-morbid conditions, and detection of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses.

CONCLUSIONS

During the pandemic, SARI mortality increased; influenza-associated mortality declined, and SARS-CoV-2 caused over a third of SARI deaths. Post-discharge mortality was higher than in-hospital mortality during both periods. Limiting premature discharge and strengthening post-discharge monitoring and nursing services could reduce unexpected deaths. Formative research to better understand post-discharge mortality is essential to reduce SARI deaths.

Efficacy and Safety of Vaccinations in Geriatric Patients: A Literature Review

With the progressive lengthening of the average age of the population, especially in some countries such as Italy, vaccination of the elderly is a fixed point on which most of the public health efforts are concentrating as epidemic infectious diseases, especially those of the winter, have a major impact on the progression of severe disease, hospitalization, and death. The protection of the elderly against acute infectious diseases should not only limit mortality but also have a positive impact on the fragility of these people in terms of less disability and fewer care needs. However, vaccination of the elderly population differs in efficacy and safety compared to that of other population categories since aging and the consequent loss of efficiency of the immune system lead to a reduction in the immunogenicity of vaccines without achieving a lasting antibody coverage. There are various strategies to avoid the failure of immunization by vaccines such as resorting to supplementary doses with adjuvant vaccines, increasing the dosage of the antigen used, or choosing to inoculate the serum relying on various routes of administration of the vaccine. Vaccination in the elderly is also an important factor in light of growing antibiotic resistance because it can indirectly contribute to combating antibiotic resistance, reducing theoretically the use of those agents. Furthermore, vaccination in old age reduces mortality from infectious diseases preventable with vaccines and reduces the same rate of resistance to antibiotics. Given the importance and complexity of the topic, in this review, we will deal with the main aspects of vaccination in the elderly and how it can influence mortality and healthcare costs, especially in those countries where population aging is more evident. Therefore, we conducted a systematic literature search in PubMed to identify all types of studies published up to 31 May 2023 that examined the association between vaccination and the elderly. Data extraction and quality assessment were conducted by two reviewers (PC and TC) who independently extracted the following data and assessed the quality of each study.

The Use of Death Certificate Data to Characterize Mortality Associated With Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Unspecified Bronchiolitis, and Influenza in the United States, 1999-2018

BACKGROUND

Death certificate data can improve our understanding of the mortality burden associated with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza.

METHODS

We used International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes listed on death certificates to characterize deaths from 1999 to 2018 as RSV, influenza, and unspecified bronchiolitis. We described the distribution of each cause of death by age, sex, race/ethnicity, place of death, and contributing causes of death.

RESULTS

Over the 20-year study period, RSV, bronchiolitis, and influenza were listed as the underlying causes of death on 932, 1046, and 52 293 death certificates, respectively. Children <1 year of age accounted for 39% of RSV and bronchiolitis deaths, while 72% of influenza deaths were in adults ≥65 years. Children <1 year were more likely to die outside of the hospital from RSV, bronchiolitis, or influenza compared to all causes (P < .01), and black infants had the highest mortality rate for all 3 causes. Most infants dying from RSV did not have a high-risk condition listed on the death certificate. Death certificates captured 20%-60% of estimated excess RSV-attributable mortality in infants and <1% in seniors.

CONCLUSIONS

Thorough reporting on death certificates is an important public health goal, especially as new therapeutics become available. Infants had higher odds of dying out of hospital from respiratory pathogens compared to other causes, and race/ethnicity alone did not explain this disparity.

Behavior of hospitalized severe influenza cases according to the outcome variable in Catalonia, Spain, during the 2017-2018 season

Influenza is an important cause of severe illness and death among patients with underlying medical conditions and in the elderly. The aim of this study was to investigate factors associated with ICU admission and death in patients hospitalized with severe laboratory-confirmed influenza during the 2017–2018 season in Catalonia. An observational epidemiological case-to-case study was carried out. Reported cases of severe laboratory-confirmed influenza requiring hospitalization in 2017–2018 influenza season were included. Mixed-effects regression analysis was used to estimate the factors associated with ICU admission and death. A total of 1306 cases of hospitalized severe influenza cases were included, of whom 175 (13.4%) died and 217 (16.6%) were ICU admitted. Age 65–74 years and ≥ 75 years and having ≥ 2 comorbidities were positively associated with death (aOR 3.19; 95%CI 1.19–8.50, aOR 6.95, 95%CI 2.76–1.80 and aOR 1.99; 95%CI 1.12–3.52, respectively). Neuraminidase inhibitor treatment and pneumonia were negatively associated with death. The 65–74 years and ≥ 75 years age groups were negatively associated with ICU admission (aOR 0.41; 95%CI 0.23–0.74 and aOR 0.30; 95%CI 0.17–0.53, respectively). A factor positively associated with ICU admission was neuraminidase inhibitor treatment. Our results support the need to investigate the worst outcomes of hospitalized severe cases, distinguishing between death and ICU admission.

Education and pneumonia mortality: a trend analysis of its inequalities in Colombian adults

OBJECTIVE

To explore the existence and trends of social inequalities related to pneumonia mortality in Colombian adults using educational level as a proxy of socioeconomic status.

METHODS

We obtained individual and anonymised registries from death certificates due to pneumonia for 1998-2015. Educational level data were gathered from microdata of the Colombian Demography Health Surveys. Rate ratios (RR) were estimated by using Poisson regression models, comparing mortality of educational groups with mortality in the highest education group. Relative index of inequality (RII) was measured to assess changes in disparities, regressing mortality on the midpoint of the cumulative distribution of education, thereby considering the size of each educational group.

RESULTS

For adults 25+ years, the risk of dying was significantly higher among lower educated. The RRs depict increased risks of dying comparing lower and highest education level, and this tendency was stronger in woman than in men (RR for primary education=2.34 (95% CI 2.32 to 2.36), RR for secondary education=1.77 (95% CI 1.75 to 1.78) versus RR for primary education=1.83 (95% CI 1.81 to 1.85), RR for secondary education=1.51 (95% CI 1.50 to 1.53)). According to age groups, young adults (25-44 years) showed the largest inequality in terms of educational level; RRs for pneumonia mortality regarding the tertiary educated groups show increased mortality in the lower and secondary educated, and these differences decreased with ages. RII in pneumonia mortality among adult men was 2.01 (95% CI 2.00 to 2.03) and in women 2.46 (95% CI 2.43 to 2.48). The RII was greatest at young ages, for both sexes. Time trends showed steadily significant increases for RII in both men and women (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC)men=3.8; EAPCwomen=2.6).

CONCLUSION

A significant increase on the educational inequalities in mortality due to pneumonia during all period was found among men and women. Efforts to reduce pneumonia mortality in adults improving population health by raising education levels should be strengthened with policies that assure widespread access to economic and social opportunities.

Electronic Health Record Use in Public Health Infectious Disease Surveillance, USA, 2018-2019

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Electronic health records (EHRs) are an excellent source of data for disease symptoms, laboratory results, and medical treatments. Thus, EHR data may improve the completeness of notifiable disease case reporting and enable longitudinal collection of disease data. The purpose of this review is to examine the current state of EHR use in public health infectious disease surveillance in the USA.

RECENT FINDINGS

A wide variety of EHR data is used in infectious disease surveillance. EHR data were used to assess the incidence of Lyme disease and identify newly diagnosed HIV infections. EHR disease detection algorithms combined laboratory reports, diagnosis codes, and medication orders to identify cases and, in the case of Lyme disease, found incidence rates 4-7 times higher than those from traditional surveillance. EHR data were also used to evaluate temporal trends in sexually transmitted disease testing, positivity, and re-testing in several primary care settings. Multiple studies were also able to control for additional confounders in multivariable models, such as number of sexual partners and concurrent infections, because of the breadth of data available in EHR systems. Studies highlighted in this review demonstrate that EHR data enhance provider-based and laboratory-based disease reports and may facilitate more complete case reporting. EHR data also provides corollary patient information that enables longitudinal disease reporting and analysis of important health outcomes. As public health infrastructure and investment allow health departments to establish closer relationships with healthcare providers, EHR data use in public health surveillance activities should continue to increase.

Utility of predictive tools for risk stratification of elderly individuals with all-cause acute respiratory infection

PURPOSE

A number of scoring tools have been developed to predict illness severity and patient outcome for proven pneumonia, however, less is known about the utility of clinical prediction scores for all-cause acute respiratory infection (ARI), especially in elderly subjects who are at increased risk of poor outcomes.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed risk factors and outcomes of individuals ≥ 60 years of age presenting to the emergency department with a clinical diagnosis of ARI.

RESULTS

Of 276 individuals in the study, 40 had proven viral infection and 52 proven bacterial infection, but 184 patients with clinically adjudicated ARI (67%) remained without a proven microbial etiology despite extensive clinical (and expanded research) workup. Patients who were older, had multiple comorbidities, or who had proven bacterial infection were more likely to require hospital and ICU admission. We identified a novel model based on 11 demographic and clinical variables that were significant risk factors for ICU admission or mortality in elderly subjects with all-cause ARI. As comparators, a modified PORT score was found to correlate more closely with all-cause ARI severity than a modified CURB-65 score (r, 0.54, 0.39). Interestingly, modified Jackson symptom scores were found to inversely correlate with severity (r, - 0.34) but show potential for differentiating viral and bacterial etiologies.

CONCLUSIONS

Modified PORT, CURB-65, Jackson symptom scores, and a novel ARI scoring tool presented herein all offer predictive ability for all-cause ARI in elderly subjects. Such broadly applicable scoring metrics have the potential to assist in treatment and triage decisions at the point of care.

Severe acute respiratory infection surveillance in Montenegro, 2014-2017

AIM

The study aim was to analyze the epidemiology and clinical characteristics of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) cases and to compare demographic and clinical characteristics as well as outcomes of influenza-positive SARI cases to those of influenza-negative SARI cases in Montenegro.

METHODS

SARI surveillance was established in 2014 in nine healthcare institutions. Retrospective analysis of case-based surveillance data pertaining to all reported SARI cases during three seasons was conducted.

RESULTS

Among the 90 identified SARI cases, 64 (71%) were influenza positive. Death outcome was reported in 25 (28%) of all registered SARI cases. Cardiovascular disease was more prevalent among the patients in the influenza-positive SARI group (36% vs. 12%, p = .021), as was concurrence of two or more chronic medical conditions (57% vs. 30%, p = .042). These patients were also more likely to be immunocompromised (16% vs. 0%, p = .057) and have viral pneumonia (14.4% vs. 20.3%, p = .017), compared to those in the influenza-negative SARI group. Younger age, presence of cardiovascular disease and being immunocompromised were patient characteristics independently associated with SARI related to influenza.

CONCLUSION

Continued and extended monitoring of SARI is necessary in order to fully assess the burden of flu disease, define risk groups and establish better control measures.