Incidence of tuberculosis in HIV-infected adults on first- and second-line antiretroviral therapy in India

Clayton copula for survival data with dependent censoring: An application to a tuberculosis treatment adherence data

Ignoring the presence of dependent censoring in data analysis can lead to biased estimates, for example, not considering the effect of abandonment of the tuberculosis treatment may influence inferences about the cure probability. In order to assess the relationship between cure and abandonment outcomes, we propose a copula Bayesian approach. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to introduce a Bayesian survival regression model, capable of taking into account the dependent censoring in the adjustment. So, this proposed approach is based on Clayton's copula, to provide the relation between survival and dependent censoring times. In addition, the Weibull and the piecewise exponential marginal distributions are considered in order to fit the times. A simulation study is carried out to perform comparisons between different scenarios of dependence, different specifications of prior distributions, and comparisons with the maximum likelihood inference. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to a tuberculosis treatment adherence dataset of an HIV cohort from Alvorada-RS, Brazil. Results show that cure and abandonment outcomes are negatively correlated, that is, as long as the chance of abandoning the treatment increases, the chance of tuberculosis cure decreases.

Nutritional Supplementation Would Be Cost-Effective for Reducing Tuberculosis Incidence and Mortality in India: The Ration Optimization to Impede Tuberculosis (ROTI-TB) Model

BACKGROUND

Undernutrition is the leading cause of tuberculosis (TB) in India and is associated with increased TB mortality. Undernutrition also decreases quality of life and economic productivity.

METHODS

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of providing augmented rations to undernourished Indians through the government's Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS). We used Markov state transition models to simulate disease progression and mortality among undernourished individuals in 3 groups: general population, household contacts (HHCs) of people living with TB, and persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The models calculate costs and outcomes (TB cases, TB deaths, and disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) associated with a 2600 kcal/day diet for adults with body mass index (BMI) of 16-18.4 kg/m2 until they attain a BMI of 20 kg/m2 compared to a status quo scenario wherein TPDS rations are unchanged. We employed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to test result robustness.

RESULTS

Over 5 years, augmented rations could avert 81% of TB cases and 88% of TB deaths among currently undernourished Indians. Correspondingly, this intervention could forestall 78% and 48% of TB cases and prevent 88% and 70% of deaths among undernourished HHCs and persons with HIV, respectively. Augmented rations resulted in 10-fold higher resolution of undernutrition and were highly cost-effective with (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] of $470/DALY averted). ICER was lower for HHCs ($360/DALY averted) and the HIV population ($250/DALY averted).

CONCLUSIONS

A robust nutritional intervention would be highly cost-effective in reducing TB incidence and mortality while reducing chronic undernutrition in India.

Effects of undernutrition on opportunistic infections among adults living with HIV on ART in Northwest Ethiopia: Using inverse-probability weighting

BACKGROUND

Opportunistic infections (OIs) are the leading causes of hospitalization, morbidity, and mortality (accounting for 94.1% of all deaths) in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV). Despite evidence suggested that undernutrition significantly increases the risk of OIs in PLHIV, to our knowledge, no study has examined the actual effects of undernutrition on OIs in this population, particularly in low-income countries. Thus, this study examined the effects of undernutrition on OIs in adults living with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART).

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among 841adults living with HIV receiving ART between June 2014 and June 2020 at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. Study participants were selected using a simple random sampling technique. Data from participants' medical records were extracted using a project-specific data extraction checklist. The Kaplan Meier survival curve estimated the OIs free survival time. The effects of undernutrition on time to develop OIs was estimated using inverse-probability weighting. Finally, regression coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were reported, with a statistical significance of p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Of 841 study participants, 262 (31.2%) developed OIs, and the overall incidence rate was 16.7 (95% CI: 14.8, 18.8) per 100 person-years. The incWidence of OIs in undernourished participants (21/100 person-years, 95% CI: 17.8, 27.4) was higher than well-nourished participants (15.0/100 person-years, 95% CI: 12.9, 17.4). When everyone in the population of interest is well-nourished, average time to develop OIs is estimated as 26.5 (coefficient: 26.5, 95% CI: 20.6, 32.4, p < 0.001) months. When everyone in the population of interest is undernourished, average time to develop OIs is estimated as 17.7 (95% CI: 12.8, 22.6) months. However, when everyone is undernourished, average time to develop OIs decreases by 8.8 (coefficient: -8.8, 95% CI: -16.6, -1.0, p = 0.026) months. Lastly, exposure to undernourishment (intervention) (ratio of average treatment effects to well-nourished potential outcome means in this study was a 32.5% reduction in OIs among adults living with HIV on ART.

CONCLUSION

We found that undernutrition significantly shortened time to develop OIs in adults living with HIV. This implies that the occurrence of OIs in this vulnerable population can be improved through different cost-effective nutritional interventions, such as routine nutritional assessments and education.

Incidence Rate and Risk Factors for Tuberculosis among People Living with HIV: A 2015-2017 Cohort from Tashkent, Uzbekistan

People living with the human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) have a higher risk of developing active tuberculosis (TB) disease, and TB remains a major cause of death in PLHIV. Uzbekistan is facing a substantial TB epidemic, which increases the risk of PLHIV developing active TB. Our retrospective cohort study aimed to evaluate the incidence rate and assess the risk factors for developing active TB among PLHIV. We collected secondary data extracted from medical charts of all patients, newly diagnosed at the AIDS Center in Tashkent, during the period of 2015–2017. The incidence rate of TB among PLHIV was 5.1 (95% CI: 4.5–6.0) per 1000 person/month. Adjusted regression analysis showed three major risk factors for TB, namely, being less than 15 years old (hazard ratio (HR) 5.83; 95% CI: 3.24–10.50, p value = 0.001),low CD4 count (adjusted hazard ratio(aHR) 21.0; 95% CI: 9.25–47.7, p value < 0.001), and antiretroviral therapy (ART) interruption/not receiving ART (aHR 5.57; 95% CI: 3.46–8.97 and aHR 6.2; 95% CI: 3.75–10.24, p value < 0.001, respectively) were significantly associated with developing active TB among PLHIV. Our findings indicate that taking prescribed ART without interruptions and maintaining CD4cell counts higher than 320 cells/μL are essential to prevent the development of active TB among PLHIV.

Incidence and predictors of tuberculosis among HIV patients after initiation of antiretroviral treatment in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Tuberculosis is the oldest infectious disease and it is still the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Even though several primary studies have been conducted on the incidence of tuberculosis among HIV-infected individuals in Ethiopia, national-level tuberculosis incidence is unknown. Therefore, this study is aimed to assess the TB incidence rate and its predictors among HIV-infected individuals after the initiation of ART in Ethiopia.

Methods

We conducted an extensive search of literature as indicated in the guideline of reporting systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA). The databases used were PubMed, Google Scholar, and HINARI literature. We used the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Meta-Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instrument for critical appraisal of studies. The meta-analysis and Meta regressions were conducted using STATA 14 software. Met-analysis and meta-regression were computed to present the pooled incidence rate and predictors of tuberculosis among HIV-infected patients after initiation of ART with a 95% confidence interval.

Results

Among a total of 189 studies, 11 studies were included in this analysis. The estimated pooled incidence rate of TB per 100-person year observation (PYO) among HIV-infected patients after initiation of ART therapy was 4.8(95% CI 3.69–5.83). In subgroup analysis, the estimated pooled incidence of tuberculosis showed a slight difference between adults and children after initiation of ART treatment, which was 4.3 (95% CI 2.96, 5.71) and 5.0 (95% CI 3.51, 6.50), respectively. Significantly pooled estimates of predictors of TB incidence by a meta-analysis were being anemic (2.30, 95% CI 1.75, 3.02); on clinical stages III and IV (2.26, 95% CI 1.70, 3.02); and not on cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (CPT) (2.16, 95% CI 1.23, 3.72). Besides, a meta-regression revealed that CD4 <200 cells/mm³ (2.12, 95% CI 1.17, 3.86) was a positive significant predictor of TB among HIV patients after the initiation of ART.

Conclusions

The current study showed that the pooled incidence of TB among HIV patients was found to be lower than the WHO 2018 national estimate. Being anemic, WHO stages III and IV, not on CPT, CD4<200cells/μl, and being male were significant predictors of tuberculosis. Therefore, the existing strategies to decrease TB should be strengthening.

Study protocol registration

CRD42020155573.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41182-021-00306-2.