Predictive factors of viral load high-risk events for virological failure in HIV/AIDS patients receiving long-term antiviral therapy

Viral load suppression and its predictor among HIV seropositive people who receive enhanced adherence counseling at public health institutions in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia. Retrospective follow-up study

BACKGROUND

For those HIV seropositive people with high viral loads, the World Health Organization recommends more counseling before changing ART regimens. A high viral load can lead to increased HIV transmission and lower survival rates. Clients with viral loads above 1000 copies/mL should receive enhanced adherence counseling for 3-6 months before switching. Despite enhanced adherence counseling programs, most countries struggle with viral load suppression. Little is known about viral load suppression in Ethiopia and the research area after counseling.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to assess viral load suppression and its predictors among HIV-positive individuals receiving enhanced adherence counseling in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia, in 2022.

METHODS

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among randomly selected 546 clients on Enhanced Adherence Counseling at public health facilities in Bahir Dar city. The Epicollect5 mobile application was used to collect the data, which was then exported to Stata version 14 for analysis. A Log-Binomial regression model was fitted for each explanatory variable. Variables having a p-value <0.25 in bivariate analysis were entered into a multivariable Log-Binomial regression model. Finally, an adjusted risk ratio with a 95% confidence interval and a p-value <0.05 was used to measure the strength of the prediction.

RESULTS

Following enhanced adherence counseling, 312 (57.1%) people had their viral load suppressed. Absence of recurrent OI (ARR 1.40; CI 1.03-1.91), EAC stay less than 3 months (ARR 1.54; CI 1.19-1.99), EAC stay 3-6 months (ARR 1.38; CI 1.12-1.69), once-daily ARV dose regimen (ARR 1.28; CI 1.03-1.58), baseline viral load of 2879.00 copies/ml (ARR 1.30, CI 1.06-1.60), being orthodox Tewahido Christian (ARR 0.37; CI 0.18-0.75) were significant predictors of viral load suppression after Enhanced Adherence Counseling.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

Most importantly, this study found that most people had suppressed viral loads after receiving enhanced adherence counseling. Significant predictors of viral load suppression included recurrent OI, length of stay on EAC, daily ARV dosing regimen, baseline viral load, and religion. Clients with a high baseline viral load and those who experience recurring opportunistic infections should get extra care during EAC sessions.

Determinants of viral load suppression failure among HIV adults on ARV attending health care facilities: a retrospective study in Tanga region, Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Availability and accessibility of Antiretroviral drugs (ARV's) improve the lives of People living with HIV (PLHIV) by improving client's immune system to overcome infections and prevent the development of AIDS and other HIV complications. Combination therapy, early initiation of ART, newer ART drugs, single dosage and drug affordability significantly contribute in the reduction of viral multiplication and suppression of HIV to undetectable plasma levels.

METHODS

A retrospective longitudinal study design study was conducted from 1st October, 2018 to 30th June 2022 in all supported HIV care and treatment health facilities in Tanga region which were supported by Amref Health Africa, Tanzania. The participants were HIV adult patients aged 15 years and above on ART and attended the clinic at least once after ART initiation. Viral load suppression levels are defined with viral load <1,000 HIV RNA copies/ml (viral load suppression). Cox proportional hazard regression models were employed to identify risk factors for virological failure. P values were two-sided, and we considered a P<0.05 to be statistically significant.

RESULTS

Fifty-nine thousand five hundred three adult clients >15 years whom were on ART were included in the analysis to determine the level of plasma Viral Load suppression after being on ART. Female 41,304 (69.4%) and male 18,199 (30.6%). Only four percent (2,290) were found to be unsuppressed i.e having plasma Viral Load >1,000cp/ml while 96% (57,213) were virally suppressed. Several factors were independently associated with virologic failure that included; age between 15 - <25 years (HR: 2.82, 95% CI 1.96 - 4.04), BMI <18.5 (HR: 1.69, 95% CI 1.23 - 2.30), advanced WHO stage IV (HR: 1.60, 95% CI 1.12 - 2.24), CD4 cell count <350 (HR: 2.61, 95% CI 2.12 - 3.23), poor adherence (HR: 1.98, 95% CI 1.80 - 2.18) and not using DTG based drug (HR: 11.8, 95% CI 9.74 - 14.3).

CONCLUSION

Virologic failure was observed in this study among clients with young age, advanced WHO stage IV, not using DTG based regimen, poor drug adherence and second line regime. To improve Viral Load Suppression among these clients; the existing HIV intervention strategies should be taken care by targeting the identified risk factors.

Factors Associated with Low-Level Viremia in People Living with HIV in the Italian Antiviral Response Cohort Analysis Cohort: A Case-Control Study

Despite effective antiretroviral therapies (ARTs), a subset of people living with HIV (PLWH) still experience low-level viremia (LLV, i.e., 50-1,000 copies/mL). The present study compared PLWH experiencing LLV with those maintaining virological suppression (VS) and explored the potential impact of preexisting drug resistance and other factors on LLV. We conducted a retrospective, 1:1 matched case-control study within a cohort of drug-experienced VS subjects from the Italian Antiviral Response Cohort Analysis database, followed in the period 2009-2019. Cases were individuals experiencing LLV, while controls were those who maintained VS. Matching was for calendar year of first ART regimen. Preexisting drug resistance was calculated as cumulative genotypic susceptibility score (GSS) according to regimen administered at the observational period start. To explore the effect of cumulative GSS, treated as a binary variable (≥2 and <2) and other factors on LLV, we performed a logistic regression analysis. Within a main population of 3,455 PLWH, 337 cases were selected. Cases were comparable to the controls for both gender and age. However, cases showed that they had experienced a longer time since HIV diagnosis, a higher number of drugs previously administered, lower baseline CD4+ T cell count and a higher zenith viral load (VL). By multivariate analysis, we found that higher zenith VL [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) 1.30 (1.14-1.48)], a cumulative usage of both PI [aOR (95% CI): 2.03 (1.19-3.48)] and InSTI [aOR (95% CI): 2.23 (1.47-3.38)] and a cumulative GSS <2 [aOR (95% CI) 0.67 (0.46-0.98)], were associated with a higher risk in developing LLV. In current high-efficacy ART era, in drug-experienced PLWH, the predictors of increased risk of LLV were the presence of preexisting drug resistance, higher zenith VL, and previous PI, and InSTI exposure.

Population-level prevalence of detectable HIV viremia in people who inject drugs (PWID) in Ukraine: Implications for HIV treatment and case finding interventions

Achievement of viral load suppression among people living with HIV is one of the most important goals for effective HIV epidemic response. In Ukraine, people who inject drugs (PWID) experience the largest HIV burden. At the same time, this group disproportionally missed out in HIV treatment services. We performed a secondary data analysis of the national-wide cross-sectional bio-behavioral surveillance survey among PWID to assess the population-level prevalence of detectable HIV viremia and identify key characteristics that explain the outcome. Overall, 11.4% of PWID or 52.6% of HIV-positive PWID had a viral load level that exceeded the 1,000 copies/mL threshold. In the group of HIV-positive PWID, the detectable viremia was attributed to younger age, monthly income greater than minimum wage, lower education level, and non-usage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and opioid agonistic therapy. Compared with HIV-negative PWID, the HIV-positive group with detectable viremia was more likely to be female, represented the middle age group (35-49 years old), had low education and monthly income levels, used opioid drugs, practiced risky injection behavior, and had previous incarceration history. Implementing the HIV case identification and ART linkage interventions focused on the most vulnerable PWID sub-groups might help closing the gaps in ART service coverage and increasing the proportion of HIV-positive PWID with viral load suppression.

Impact factors of Blastocystis hominis infection in persons living with human immunodeficiency virus: a large-scale, multi-center observational study from China

BACKGROUND

Blastocystis hominis (Bh) is zoonotic parasitic pathogen with a high prevalent globally, causing opportunistic infections and diarrhea disease. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection disrupts the immune system by depleting CD4+ T lymphocyte (CD4+ T) cell counts, thereby increasing Bh infection risk among persons living with HIV (PLWH). However, the precise association between Bh infection risk and HIV-related biological markers and treatment processes remains poorly understood. Hence, the purpose of the study was to explore the association between Bh infection risk and CD4+ T cell counts, HIV viral load (VL), and duration of interruption in antiviral therapy among PLWH.

METHODS

A large-scale multi-center cross-sectional study was conducted in China from June 2020 to December 2022. The genetic presence of Bh in fecal samples was detected by real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction, the CD4+ T cell counts in venous blood was measured using flowcytometry, and the HIV VL in serum was quantified using fluorescence-based instruments. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) was applied to assess the non-linear association between Bh infection risk and CD4+ T cell counts, HIV VL, and duration of interruption in highly active antiretroviral therapy (HARRT).

RESULTS

A total of 1245 PLWH were enrolled in the study, the average age of PLWH was 43 years [interquartile range (IQR): 33, 52], with 452 (36.3%) being female, 50.4% (n = 628) had no immunosuppression (CD4+ T cell counts > 500 cells/μl), and 78.1% (n = 972) achieved full virological suppression (HIV VL < 50 copies/ml). Approximately 10.5% (n = 131) of PLWH had interruption. The prevalence of Bh was found to be 4.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.8-6.4%] among PLWH. Significant nonlinear associations were observed between the Bh infection risk and CD4+ T cell counts (Pfor nonlinearity < 0.001, L-shaped), HIV VL (Pfor nonlinearity < 0.001, inverted U-shaped), and duration of interruption in HARRT (Pfor nonlinearity < 0.001, inverted U-shaped).

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed that VL was a better predictor of Bh infection than CD4+ T cell counts. It is crucial to consider the simultaneous surveillance of HIV VL and CD4+ T cell counts in PLWH in the regions with high level of socioeconomic development. The integrated approach can offer more comprehensive and accurate understanding in the aspects of Bh infection and other opportunistic infections, the efficacy of therapeutic drugs, and the assessment of preventive and control strategies.

The Influence of Age-Associated Comorbidities on Responses to Combination Antiretroviral Therapy Among People Living with HIV, at the ART Clinic of Jimma Medical Center, Ethiopia: A Hospital-Based Nested Case-Control Study

Introduction

Despite the high prevalence of age-associated comorbidities in HIV patients in sub-Saharan Africa, there is a lack of data on their influence on treatment outcomes in HIV patients. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the impact of age-associated comorbidities on responses to antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people living with HIV.

Methods

A hospital-based nested case-control study was conducted among adult HIV-infected patients at the Jimma Medical Center from January 3 to June 2, 2022. Data were recorded by interviewing the patients and their medical chart and analyzed using The Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) v. 23, and at p <0.05.

The Results

The overall immunological and virologic failure rates were 13.8% and 13.4%, respectively. Being male [AOR = 3.079,95% CI (1.139-8.327)], having age-associated comorbidity [AOR:10.57,95% CI (2.810-39.779)], age ≥ 50 years [AOR = 2.855, 95% CI (1.023-7.9650)], alcohol intake [AOR = 3.648,95% CI (1.118-11.897)], and having a baseline CD4+ count of < 200 cells/uL [AOR:3.862, 95% CI (1.109-13.456) were an independent predictor of immunological failure; Whereas Being alcoholic [AOR:3.11, 95% CI (1.044-9.271)], having a baseline CD4+ count of < 200 cells/uL [AOR:5.11, 95% CI (1.547-16.892)], a low medication adherence [AOR:5.92, 95% CI (1.81-19.36)], bedridden baseline functional status [AOR:3.902, 95% CI (1.237-12.307)], and lack of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis [AOR:2.735,95% CI (1.084-6.902)] were found to be an independent predictor of virologic treatment failure, but being younger (age < 50 years) was protective for virologic failure.

Conclusion

Out of the eight patients who were treated for HIV at least one patient had developed immunological and/or virological failure. Age-associated comorbid chronic non-communicable diseases highly influence immunological outcomes compared with virological outcomes. Health providers should pay attention to age-associated comorbidities, encourage lifestyle modifications, and counsel on medication adherence to improve clinical outcomes in patients with HIV.

Machine learning to predict virological failure among HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy in the University of Gondar Comprehensive and Specialized Hospital, in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, 2022

BACKGROUND

Treatment with effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces viral load as well as HIV-related morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive patients. Despite the expanded availability of antiretroviral therapy around the world, virological failure remains a serious problem for HIV-positive patients. Thus, Machine learning predictive algorithms have the potential to improve the quality of care and predict the needs of HIV patients by analyzing huge amounts of data, and enhancing prediction capabilities. This study used different machine learning classification algorithms to predict the features that cause virological failure in HIV-positive patients.

METHOD

An institution-based secondary data was used to conduct patients who were on antiretroviral therapy at the University of Gondar Comprehensive and Specialized Hospital from January 2020 to May 2022. Patients' data were extracted from the electronic database using a structured checklist and imported into Python version three software for data pre-processing and analysis. Then, seven supervised classification machine-learning algorithms for model development were trained. The performances of the predictive models were evaluated using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, f1-score, and AUC. Association rule mining was used to generate the best rule for the association between independent features and the target feature.

RESULT

Out of 5264 study participants, 1893 (35.06%) males and 3371 (64.04%) females were included. The random forest classifier (sensitivity = 1.00, precision = 0.987, f1-score = 0.993, AUC = 0.9989) outperformed in predicting virological failure among all selected classifiers. Random forest feature importance and association rules identified the top eight predictors (Male, younger age, longer duration on ART, not taking CPT, not taking TPT, secondary educational status, TDF-3TC-EFV, and low CD4 counts) of virological failure based on the importance ranking, and the CD-4 count was recognized as the most important predictor feature.

CONCLUSION

The random forest classifier outperformed in predicting and identifying the relevant predictors of virological failure. The results of this study could be very helpful to health professionals in determining the optimal virological outcome.

Trends of HIV indicators in Egypt from 1990 to 2021: time-series analysis and forecast toward UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets

BACKGROUND

Infection with Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and the development of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) pose severe threats to public health across the world. This study aimed to describe and forecast the trend of HIV indicators, including progress towards the 90-90-90 targets in Egypt since 1990.

METHODS

The HIV indicators were graphically described, where the X axis is the time in a year and the Y axis is the value of the selected indicator for each year using data retrieved from UNAIDS. We used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast different HIV indicators from 2022 to 2024.

RESULTS

Since 1990, HIV prevalence has been < 0.01, the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) has increased from < 500 to 30,000 with a higher male predominance since 2010, and the number of children living with HIV has increased from < 100 to 1100. The number of pregnant women who needed antiretroviral treatment (ART) to prevent maternofetal HIV transmission increased from < 500 during 2010-2014 to 780 in 2021, the percentage of women who received ART increased from 3% in 2010 to 18% in 2021, the number of children exposed to HIV who did not get infection increased from < 100 in 1990-1991 to 4900 in 2021. The number of AIDS-related deaths increased from < 100 in 1990 to < 1000 in 2021. Based on forecasting, we expect that by 2024 the number of PLHIV will be 39,325(95%CI, 33,236-37,334), 22% (95%CI, 13.0%-32.0%) of pregnant females will have access to ART, 6100(95%CI, 5714-6485) HIV exposed children will not be infected, 77.0%(95% CI 66.0%-86.0%) of the population who knew their HIV status, and 71.0% (95%CI, 61.0%-81.0%) among those who know their HIV status will be on ART.

CONCLUSION

HIV is moving forward fast, however, the Egyptian health authority implements different control measures to control its spread.

Influencing factors and adverse outcomes of different virologic rebound states in antiretroviral treated HIV/AIDS patients

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) aims to inhibit HIV replication, decrease CD4 T cell loss, and immune function recovery in order to reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with the infection. Treatment should also, improve quality of life and control HIV spread. However, incomplete viral suppression still occurs during ART. Viral suppression and virological failure (VF) thresholds vary between studies in terms of virological rebound (VR) states using different detection thresholds. Further understanding of influencing factors and adverse outcomes in various VR states should provide important guidance for HIV treatment.

Sensitive and Quantitative Point-of-Care HIV Viral Load Quantification from Blood Using a Power-Free Plasma Separation and Portable Magnetofluidic Polymerase Chain Reaction Instrument

Point-of-care (POC) HIV viral load (VL) tests are needed to enhance access to HIV VL testing in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and to enable HIV VL self-testing at home, which in turn have the potential to enhance the global management of the disease. While methods based on real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) are highly sensitive and quantitatively accurate, they often require bulky and expensive instruments, making applications at the POC challenging. On the other hand, although methods based on isothermal amplification techniques could be performed using low-cost instruments, they have shown limited quantitative accuracies, i.e., being only semiquantitative. Herein, we present a sensitive and quantitative POC HIV VL quantification method from blood that can be performed using a small power-free three-dimensional-printed plasma separation device and a portable, low-cost magnetofluidic real-time RT-PCR instrument. The plasma separation device, which is composed of a plasma separation membrane and an absorbent material, demonstrated 96% plasma separation efficiency per 100 μL of whole blood. The plasma solution was then processed in a magnetofluidic cartridge for automated HIV RNA extraction and quantification using the portable instrument, which completed 50 cycles of PCR in 15 min. Using the method, we achieved a limit of detection of 500 HIV RNA copies/mL, which is below the World Health Organization's virological failure threshold, and a good quantitative accuracy. The method has the potential for sensitive and quantitative HIV VL testing at the POC and at home self-testing.

The influence of low-level viremia on CD4+ cell count in human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients

BACKGROUND

Following initiation of combined antiretroviral therapy, the majority of human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients experience immune reconstitution indicated by virologic suppression and an increase in peripheral CD4+ T-cell counts. Some patients may suffer from low-level viremia, which was reported to be significantly associated with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome cases, virologic failure, and death. We aimed to further investigate the influence of low-level viremia on CD4+ T-cell count.

METHODS

In our study, we included human immunodeficiency virus-seropositive patients on combined antiretroviral therapy, for at least 6 months, who received at least one assessment of human immunodeficiency virus plasma viral load and CD4+ cell count every 6 months, from January 2009 to January 2019. The copy-year viremia was determined by calculating the area under the curve of the plasma human immunodeficiency virus viral load.

RESULTS

When comparing patients with a mean CD4+ cell count <200 cells/μL, there was no significant difference between patients with a mean viral load <1000 copies/mL and patients with a mean viral load ≥1000 copies/mL (p = 0.219). Among those with a mean viral load <1000 copies/mL, a higher proportion of patients had a mean CD4+ cell count ≥500 cells/µL (p < 0.001). The mean CD4+ cell count of patients with copy-years viremia (log10) <4 (577.7, interquartile range 429.2-736.7) was significantly higher than that of patients with copy-years viremia (log10) ≥4 (443.3, interquartile range 319.0-558.4) (p < 0.001). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, we observed that malignancy without history, lower copy-years viremia, and high nadir CD4+ cell count were independent predictors of mean CD4+ cell count ≥500 cells/µL.

CONCLUSION

Human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients with a history of malignancy, high copy-year viremia, and lower nadir CD4+ cell counts should be monitored carefully in clinical settings.

Low-level viremia in treated HIV-1 infected patients: advances and challenges

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can effectively suppress HIV-1 replication, improving quality of life and restoring the lifespan of persons living with HIV (PLWH) to near normal levels. However, after standardized ART, a low level of HIV-1 RNA, i.e., low-level viremia (LLV), may still be identified in 3% to 10% of the patients. LLV is capable of impacting the immunological and clinical outcome of patients and serves as a risk factor for transmission. The underlying mechanism of LLV is not yet certain, and the effects of LLV on patient outcomes remain under evaluation. Understanding LLV will allow effective prevention and control strategies to be designed for the benefit of PLWH.