A new machine learning approach for predicting likelihood of recurrence following ablation for atrial fibrillation from CT

Beyond Clinical Factors: Harnessing Artificial Intelligence and Multimodal Cardiac Imaging to Predict Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence Post-Catheter Ablation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of cardiac arrhythmia, with catheter ablation being a key alternative to medical treatment for restoring normal sinus rhythm. Despite advances in understanding AF pathogenesis, approximately 35% of patients experience AF recurrence at 12 months after catheter ablation. Therefore, accurate prediction of AF recurrence occurring after catheter ablation is important for patient selection and management. Conventional methods for predicting post-catheter ablation AF recurrence, which involve the use of univariate predictors and scoring systems, have played a supportive role in clinical decision-making. In an ever-changing landscape where technology is becoming ubiquitous within medicine, cardiac imaging and artificial intelligence (AI) could prove pivotal in enhancing AF recurrence predictions by providing data with independent predictive power and identifying key relationships in the data. This review comprehensively explores the existing methods for predicting the recurrence of AF following catheter ablation from different perspectives, including conventional predictors and scoring systems, cardiac imaging-based methods, and AI-based methods developed using a combination of demographic and imaging variables. By summarising state-of-the-art technologies, this review serves as a roadmap for developing future prediction models with enhanced accuracy, generalisability, and explainability, potentially contributing to improved care for patients with AF.

Utility of CT and MRI in Cardiac Electrophysiology

Cardiac electrophysiology involves the diagnosis and management of arrhythmias. CT and MRI play an increasingly important role in cardiac electrophysiology, primarily in preprocedural planning of ablation procedures but also in procedural guidance and postprocedural follow-up. The most common applications include ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF), ablation for ventricular tachycardia (VT), and for planning cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). For AF ablation, preprocedural evaluation includes anatomic evaluation and planning using CT or MRI as well as evaluation for left atrial fibrosis using MRI, a marker of poor outcomes following ablation. Procedural guidance during AF ablation is achieved by fusing anatomic data from CT or MRI with electroanatomic mapping to guide the procedure. Postprocedural imaging with CT following AF ablation is commonly used to evaluate for complications such as pulmonary vein stenosis and atrioesophageal fistula. For VT ablation, both MRI and CT are used to identify scar, representing the arrhythmogenic substrate targeted for ablation, and to plan the optimal approach for ablation. CT or MR images may be fused with electroanatomic maps for intraprocedural guidance during VT ablation and may also be used to assess for complications following ablation. Finally, functional information from MRI may be used to identify patients who may benefit from CRT, and cardiac vein mapping with CT or MRI may assist in planning access. ©RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article.

Use of artificial intelligence and I-Score for prediction of recurrence before catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Based solely on pre-ablation characteristics, previous risk scores have demonstrated variable predictive performance. This study aimed to predict the recurrence of AF after catheter ablation by using artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled pre-ablation computed tomography (PVCT) images and pre-ablation clinical data.

METHODS

A total of 638 drug-refractory paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) patients undergone ablation were recruited. For model training, we used left atria (LA) acquired from pre-ablation PVCT slices (126,288 images). A total of 29 clinical variables were collected before ablation, including baseline characteristics, medical histories, laboratory results, transthoracic echocardiographic parameters, and 3D reconstructed LA volumes. The I-Score was applied to select variables for model training. For the prediction of one-year AF recurrence, PVCT deep-learning and clinical variable machine-learning models were developed. We then applied machine learning to ensemble the PVCT and clinical variable models.

RESULTS

The PVCT model achieved an AUC of 0.63 in the test set. Various combinations of clinical variables selected by I-Score can yield an AUC of 0.72, which is significantly better than all variables or features selected by nonparametric statistics (AUCs of 0.66 to 0.69). The ensemble model (PVCT images and clinical variables) significantly improved predictive performance up to an AUC of 0.76 (sensitivity of 86.7% and specificity of 51.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

Before ablation, AI-enabled PVCT combined with I-Score features was applicable in predicting recurrence in paroxysmal AF patients. Based on all possible predictors, the I-Score is capable of identifying the most influential combination.

Data-driven classification of left atrial morphology and its predictive impact on atrial fibrillation catheter ablation

INTRODUCTION

Various left atrial (LA) anatomical structures are correlated with postablative recurrence for atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. Comprehensively integrating anatomical structures, digitizing them, and implementing in-depth analysis, which may supply new insights, are needed. Thus, we aim to establish an interpretable model to identify AF patients' phenotypes according to LA anatomical morphology, using machine learning techniques.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Five hundred and nine AF patients underwent first ablation treatment in three centers were included and were followed-up for postablative recurrent atrial arrhythmias. Data from 369 patients were regarded as training set, while data from another 140 patients, collected from different centers, were used as validation set. We manually measured 57 morphological parameters on enhanced computed tomography with three-dimensional reconstruction technique and implemented unsupervised learning accordingly. Three morphological groups were identified, with distinct prognosis according to Kaplan-Meier estimator (p < .001). Multivariable Cox model revealed that morphological grouping were independent predictors of 1-year recurrence (Group 1: HR = 3.00, 95% CI: 1.51-5.95, p = .002; Group 2: HR = 4.68, 95% CI: 2.40-9.11, p < .001; Group 3 as reference). Furthermore, external validation consistently demonstrated our findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study illustrated the feasibility of employing unsupervised learning for the classification of LA morphology. By utilizing morphological grouping, we can effectively identify individuals at different risks of postablative recurrence and thereby assist in clinical decision-making.

Early Detection of Atrial Fibrillation in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important medical problem, as it significantly affects patients' quality of life and prognosis. AF often complicates the course of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a widespread disease with heavy economic and social burdens. A growing body of evidence suggests multiple links between COPD and AF. This review considers the common pathogenetic mechanisms (chronic hypoxia, persistent inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and myocardial remodeling) of these diseases and describes the main risk factors for the development of AF in patients with COPD. The most effective models based on clinical, laboratory, and functional indices are also described, which enable the identification of patients suffering from COPD with a high risk of AF development. Thus, AF in COPD patients is a frequent problem, and the search for new tools to identify patients at a high risk of AF among COPD patients remains an urgent medical problem.

Uplift modeling to identify patients who require extensive catheter ablation procedures among patients with persistent atrial fibrillation

Identifying patients who would benefit from extensive catheter ablation along with pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) among those with persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) has been a subject of controversy. The objective of this study was to apply uplift modeling, a machine learning method for analyzing individual causal effect, to identify such patients in the EARNEST-PVI trial, a randomized trial in patients with persistent AF. We developed 16 uplift models using different machine learning algorithms, and determined that the best performing model was adaptive boosting using Qini coefficients. The optimal uplift score threshold was 0.0124. Among patients with an uplift score ≥ 0.0124, those who underwent extensive catheter ablation (PVI-plus) showed a significantly lower recurrence rate of AF compared to those who received only PVI (PVI-alone) (HR 0.40; 95% CI 0.19-0.84; P-value = 0.015). In contrast, among patients with an uplift score < 0.0124, recurrence of AF did not significantly differ between PVI-plus and PVI-alone (HR 1.17; 95% CI 0.57-2.39; P-value = 0.661). By employing uplift modeling, we could effectively identify a subset of patients with persistent AF who would benefit from PVI-plus. This model could be valuable in stratifying patients with persistent AF who need extensive catheter ablation before the procedure.

Artificial intelligence in cardiac computed tomography

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a broad discipline of computer science and engineering. Modern application of AI encompasses intelligent models and algorithms for automated data analysis and processing, data generation, and prediction with applications in visual perception, speech understanding, and language translation. AI in healthcare uses machine learning (ML) and other predictive analytical techniques to help sort through vast amounts of data and generate outputs that aid in diagnosis, clinical decision support, workflow automation, and prognostication. Coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) is an ideal union for these applications due to vast amounts of data generation and analysis during cardiac segmentation, coronary calcium scoring, plaque quantification, adipose tissue quantification, peri-operative planning, fractional flow reserve quantification, and cardiac event prediction. In the past 5 years, there has been an exponential increase in the number of studies exploring the use of AI for cardiac computed tomography (CT) image acquisition, de-noising, analysis, and prognosis. Beyond image processing, AI has also been applied to improve the imaging workflow in areas such as patient scheduling, urgent result notification, report generation, and report communication. In this review, we discuss algorithms applicable to AI and radiomic analysis; we then present a summary of current and emerging clinical applications of AI in cardiac CT. We conclude with AI's advantages and limitations in this new field.

Predictive Value of Machine Learning for Recurrence of Atrial Fibrillation after Catheter Ablation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Accurate detection of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after catheter ablation is crucial. In this study, we aimed to conduct a systematic review of machine-learning-based recurrence detection in the relevant literature.

Methods

We conducted a comprehensive search of PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, and Web of Science databases from 1980 to December 31, 2022 to identify studies on prediction models for AF recurrence risk after catheter ablation. We used the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST) to assess the risk of bias, and R4.2.0 for meta-analysis, with subgroup analysis based on model type.

Results

After screening, 40 papers were eligible for synthesis. The pooled concordance index (C-index) in the training set was 0.760 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.739 to 0.781), the sensitivity was 0.74 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.77), and the specificity was 0.76 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.80). The combined C-index in the validation set was 0.787 (95% CI 0.752 to 0.821), the sensitivity was 0.78 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.83), and the specificity was 0.75 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.82). The subgroup analysis revealed no significant difference in the pooled C-index between models constructed based on radiomics features and those based on clinical characteristics. However, radiomics based showed a slightly higher sensitivity (training set: 0.82 vs. 0.71, validation set: 0.83 vs. 0.73). Logistic regression, one of the most common machine learning (ML) methods, exhibited an overall pooled C-index of 0.785 and 0.804 in the training and validation sets, respectively. The Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) models outperformed these results with an overall pooled C-index of 0.862 and 0.861. Age, radiomics features, left atrial diameter, AF type, and AF duration were identified as the key modeling variables.

Conclusions

ML has demonstrated excellent performance in predicting AF recurrence after catheter ablation. Logistic regression (LR) being the most widely used ML algorithm for predicting AF recurrence, also showed high accuracy. The development of risk prediction nomograms for wide application is warranted.

Incremental predictive utility of a radiomics signature in a nomogram for the recurrence of atrial fibrillation

Background

Recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) after catheter ablation (CA) remains a challenge today. Although it is believed that evaluating the structural and functional remodeling of the left atrium (LA) may be helpful in predicting AF recurrence, there is a lack of consensus on prediction accuracy. Ultrasound-based radiomics is currently receiving increasing attention because it might aid in the diagnosis and prognosis prediction of AF recurrence. However, research on LA ultrasound radiomics is limited.

Objective

We aim to investigate the incremental predictive utility of LA radiomics and construct a radiomics nomogram to preoperatively predict AF recurrence following CA.

Methods

A training cohort of 232 AF patients was designed for nomogram construction, while a validation cohort (n = 100) served as the model performance test. AF recurrence during a follow-up period of 3-12 months was defined as the endpoint. The radiomics features related to AF recurrence were extracted and selected to create the radiomics score (rad score). These rad scores, along with other morphological and functional indicators for AF recurrence, were included in the multivariate Cox analysis to establish a nomogram for the prediction of the likelihood of AF recurrence within 1 year following CA.

Results

In the training and validation cohorts, AF recurrence rates accounted for 32.3% (75/232) and 25.0% (25/100), respectively. We extracted seven types of radiomics features associated with AF recurrence from apical four-chamber view echocardiography images and established a rad score for each patient. The radiomics nomogram was built with the rad score, AF type, left atrial appendage emptying flow velocity, and peak atrial longitudinal strain. It outperformed the nomogram building without the rad score in terms of the predictive efficacy of CA outcome and showed favorable performance in both cohorts.

Conclusion

We revealed the incremental utility of a radiomics signature in the prediction of AF recurrence and preliminarily developed and validated a radiomics nomogram for identifying patients who were at high risk of post-CA recurrence, which contributed to an appropriate management strategy for AF.

Value of Imaging in the Non-Invasive Prediction of Recurrence after Catheter Ablation in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: An Up-to-Date Review

Catheter ablation (CA) is the first-line treatment for atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. However, the risk of recurrence associated with CA treatment should not be ignored. Therefore, the preoperative identification of patients at risk of recurrence is essential for identifying patients who will benefit from non-invasive surgery. Echocardiography, computed tomography (CT), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are essential for the preoperative non-invasive prediction of AF recurrence after CA. Compared to laboratory examinations and other examination methods, these modalities can identify structural changes in the heart and assess functional variations. Accordingly, in past studies, morphological features, quantitative parameters, and imaging information of the heart, as assessed by echocardiography, CT, and MRI, have been used to predict AF recurrence after CA noninvasively. This review summarizes and discusses the current research on echocardiography, CT, MRI, and machine learning for predicting AF recurrence following CA. Recommendations for future research are also presented.

State of the art paper: Cardiac computed tomography of the left atrium in atrial fibrillation

The clinical spectrum of atrial fibrillation means that a patient-individualized approach is required to ensure optimal treatment. Cardiac computed tomography can accurately delineate atrial structure and function and could contribute to a personalized care pathway for atrial fibrillation patients. The imaging modality offers excellent spatial resolution and has been utilised in pre-, peri- and post-procedural care for patients with atrial fibrillation. Advances in temporal resolution, acquisition times and analysis techniques suggest potential expanding roles for cardiac computed tomography in the future management of patients with atrial fibrillation. The aim of the current review is to discuss the use of cardiac computed tomography in atrial fibrillation in pre-, peri- and post-procedural settings. Potential future applications of cardiac computed tomography including atrial wall thickness assessment and epicardial fat volume quantification are discussed together with emerging analysis techniques including computational modelling and machine learning with attention paid to how these developments may contribute to a personalized approach to atrial fibrillation management.

Explainable machine learning model reveals its decision-making process in identifying patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation at high risk for recurrence after catheter ablation

BACKGROUND

A number of models have been reported for predicting atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after catheter ablation. Although many machine learning (ML) models were developed among them, black-box effect existed widely. It was always difficult to explain how variables affect model output. We sought to implement an explainable ML model and then reveal its decision-making process in identifying patients with paroxysmal AF at high risk for recurrence after catheter ablation.

METHODS

Between January 2018 and December 2020, 471 consecutive patients with paroxysmal AF who had their first catheter ablation procedure were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were randomly assigned into training cohort (70%) and testing cohort (30%). The explainable ML model based on Random Forest (RF) algorithm was developed and modified on training cohort, and tested on testing cohort. In order to gain insight into the association between observed values and model output, Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis was used to visualize the ML model.

RESULTS

In this cohort, 135 patients experienced tachycardias recurrences. With hyperparameters adjusted, the ML model predicted AF recurrence with an area under the curve of 66.7% in the testing cohort. Summary plots listed the top 15 features in descending order and preliminary showed the association between features and outcome prediction. Early recurrence of AF showed the most positive impact on model output. Dependence plots combined with force plots showed the impact of single feature on model output, and helped determine high risk cut-off points. The thresholds of CHA₂DS₂-VASc score, systolic blood pressure, AF duration, HAS-BLED score, left atrial diameter and age were 2, 130 mmHg, 48 months, 2, 40 mm and 70 years, respectively. Decision plot recognized significant outliers.

CONCLUSION

An explainable ML model effectively revealed its decision-making process in identifying patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation at high risk for recurrence after catheter ablation by listing important features, showing the impact of every feature on model output, determining appropriate thresholds and identifying significant outliers. Physicians can combine model output, visualization of model and clinical experience to make better decision.

Role of advanced imaging with cardiac computed tomography and MRI in atrial and ventricular ablation

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Increasing evidence supports the use of advanced imaging with cardiac computed tomography (CCT) and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) in the work-up of patients with arrythmias being considered for ablation.

RECENT FINDINGS

Advances in imaging technology and postprocessing are facilitating the use of advanced imaging before, during and after ablation in patients with both atrial and ventricular arrhythmias.In atrial arrythmias, quantitative assessment of left atrial wall thickness on CCT and quantification of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) on CMR identify patients more likely to develop recurrent atrial arrythmias following ablation. In addition, in patients with recurrent arrythmia post ablation, LGE CMR can potentially identify targets for repeat ablation.In ventricular arrythmias, qualitative assessment of LGE can aide in determining the optimal ablation approach and predicts likelihood of ventricular arrythmias inducibility. Quantitative assessment of LGE can identify conduction channels that can be targeted for ablation. On CCT, quantitative assessment of left ventricular wall thickness can demonstrate myocardial ridges associated with re-entrant circuits for ablation.

SUMMARY

This review focuses on the utility of CCT and CMR in identifying key anatomical components and arrhythmogenic substrate contributing to both atrial and ventricular arrhythmias in patients being considered for ablation. Advanced imaging has the potential to improve procedural outcomes, decrease complications and shorten procedural time.

Machine learning applications in cardiac computed tomography: a composite systematic review

Artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) models are rapidly being applied to the analysis of cardiac computed tomography (CT). We sought to provide an overview of the contemporary advances brought about by the combination of ML and cardiac CT. Six searches were performed in Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library up to November 2021 for (i) CT-fractional flow reserve (CT-FFR), (ii) atrial fibrillation (AF), (iii) aortic stenosis, (iv) plaque characterization, (v) fat quantification, and (vi) coronary artery calcium score. We included 57 studies pertaining to the aforementioned topics. Non-invasive CT-FFR can accurately be estimated using ML algorithms and has the potential to reduce the requirement for invasive angiography. Coronary artery calcification and non-calcified coronary lesions can now be automatically and accurately calculated. Epicardial adipose tissue can also be automatically, accurately, and rapidly quantified. Effective ML algorithms have been developed to streamline and optimize the safety of aortic annular measurements to facilitate pre-transcatheter aortic valve replacement valve selection. Within electrophysiology, the left atrium (LA) can be segmented and resultant LA volumes have contributed to accurate predictions of post-ablation recurrence of AF. In this review, we discuss the latest studies and evolving techniques of ML and cardiac CT.

Machine Learning Model-Based Simple Clinical Information to Predict Decreased Left Atrial Appendage Flow Velocity

Background: Transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) is the first technique of choice for evaluating the left atrial appendage flow velocity (LAAV) in clinical practice, which may cause some complications. Therefore, clinicians require a simple applicable method to screen patients with decreased LAAV. Therefore, we investigated the feasibility and accuracy of a machine learning (ML) model to predict LAAV. Method: The analysis included patients with atrial fibrillation who visited the general hospital of PLA and underwent transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) between January 2017 and December 2020. Three machine learning algorithms were used to predict LAAV. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was measured to evaluate diagnostic accuracy. Results: Of the 1039 subjects, 125 patients (12%) were determined as having decreased LAAV (LAAV < 25 cm/s). Patients with decreased LAAV were fatter and showed a higher prevalence of persistent AF, heart failure, hypertension, diabetes and stroke, and the decreased LAAV group had a larger left atrium diameter and a higher serum level of NT-pro BNP than the control group (p < 0.05). Three machine-learning models (SVM model, RF model, and KNN model) were developed to predict LAAV. In the test data, the RF model performs best (R = 0.608, AUC = 0.89) among the three models. A fivefold cross-validation scheme further verified the predictive ability of the RF model. In the RF model, NT-proBNP was the factor with the strongest impact. Conclusions: A machine learning model (Random Forest model)-based simple clinical information showed good performance in predicting LAAV. The tool for the screening of decreased LAAV patients may be very helpful in the risk classification of patients with a high risk of LAA thrombosis.

Big Data in electrophysiology

The quantity of data produced and captured in medicine today is unprecedented. Technological improvements and automation have expanded the traditional statistical methods and enabled the analysis of Big Data. This has permitted the discovery of new associations with a granularity that was previously hidden to human eyes. In the first part of this review, the authors would like to provide an overview of basic Machine Learning (ML) principles and techniques in order to better understand their application in recent publications about cardiac arrhythmias. In the second part, ML-enabled advances in disease detection and diagnosis, outcome prediction, and novel disease characterization in topics like electrocardiography, atrial fibrillation, ventricular arrhythmias, and cardiac devices are presented. Finally, the limitations and challenges of applying ML in clinical practice, such as validation, replication, generalizability, and regulatory issues, are discussed. More carefully designed studies and collaborations are needed for ML to become feasible, trustworthy, accurate, and reproducible and to reach its full potential for patient-oriented precision medicine.

Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation Using Machine Learning: A Review

There has been recent immense interest in the use of machine learning techniques in the prediction and screening of atrial fibrillation, a common rhythm disorder present with significant clinical implications primarily related to the risk of ischemic cerebrovascular events and heart failure. Prior to the advent of the application of artificial intelligence in clinical medicine, previous studies have enumerated multiple clinical risk factors that can predict the development of atrial fibrillation. These clinical parameters include previous diagnoses, laboratory data (e.g., cardiac and inflammatory biomarkers, etc.), imaging data (e.g., cardiac computed tomography, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, echocardiography, etc.), and electrophysiological data. These data are readily available in the electronic health record and can be automatically queried by artificial intelligence algorithms. With the modern computational capabilities afforded by technological advancements in computing and artificial intelligence, we present the current state of machine learning methodologies in the prediction and screening of atrial fibrillation as well as the implications and future direction of this rapidly evolving field.

Atrial remodeling and atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation : Past, present, and future developments

The term "atrial remodeling" is used to describe the electrical, mechanical, and structural changes associated with the presence of an arrhythmogenic substrate for atrial fibrillation. Rhythm control therapy may slow down or even reverse progressive atrial remodeling. Atrial remodeling has long been recognized as an important predictor of clinical outcomes and therapeutic success, but recent advances have highlighted its clinical relevance and revealed the implications of specific anatomical changes such as atrial asymmetry or shape. This has opened the path to computational precision medicine that captures these data in detail and combines them with other factors, to provide patient-specific solutions. The goal of precision medicine lies in improving clinical outcomes, reducing costs, and avoiding unnecessary procedures. In this article, we review the history of atrial remodeling and we summarize the insights from our research on anatomical atrial remodeling and its association with rhythm outcomes after catheter ablation. Finally, we present recent advances in the field, reflecting the beginning of a new technological era that will enable us to improve patient care by personalized patient-specific medicine.