Early renal function trajectories, cytomegalovirus serostatus and long-term graft outcomes in kidney transplant recipients

Stratification of Kidney Transplant Recipients Into Five Subgroups Based on Temporal Disease Trajectories

Background

Kidney transplantation is the treatment of choice for patients with end-stage renal disease. Considerable clinical research has focused on improving graft survival and an increasing number of kidney recipients die with a functioning graft. There is a need to improve patient survival and to better understand the individualized risk of comorbidities and complications. Here, we developed a method to stratify recipients into similar subgroups based on previous comorbidities and subsequently identify complications and for a subpopulation, laboratory test values associated with survival.

Methods

First, we identified significant disease patterns based on all hospital diagnoses from the Danish National Patient Registry for 5752 kidney transplant recipients from 1977 to 2018. Using hierarchical clustering, these longitudinal patterns of diseases segregate into 3 main clusters of glomerulonephritis, hypertension, and diabetes. As some recipients are diagnosed with diseases from >1 cluster, recipients are further stratified into 5 more fine-grained trajectory subgroups for which survival, stratified complication patterns as well as laboratory test values are analyzed.

Results

The study replicated known associations indicating that diabetes and low levels of albumin are associated with worse survival when investigating all recipients. However, stratification of recipients by trajectory subgroup showed additional associations. For recipients with glomerulonephritis, higher levels of basophils are significantly associated with poor survival, and these patients are more often diagnosed with bacterial infections. Additional associations were also found.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that disease trajectories can confirm known comorbidities and furthermore stratify kidney transplant recipients into clinical subgroups in which we can characterize stratified risk factors. We hope to motivate future studies to stratify recipients into more fine-grained, homogenous subgroups to better discover associations relevant for the individual patient and thereby enable more personalized disease-management and improve long-term outcomes and survival.

Costs in the Year Following Deceased Donor Kidney Transplantation: Relationships With Renal Function and Graft Failure

Relationships between renal function and medical costs for deceased donor kidney transplant recipients are not fully quantified post-transplant. We describe these relationships with renal function measured by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and graft failure. The United States Renal Data System identified adults receiving single-organ deceased donor kidneys 2012–2015. Inpatient, outpatient, other facility costs and eGFRs at discharge, 6 and 12 months were included. A time-history of costs was constructed for graft failures and monthly costs in the first year post-transplant were compared to those without failure. The cohort of 24,021 deceased donor recipients had a 2.4% graft failure rate in the first year. Total medical costs exhibit strong trends with eGFR. Recipients with 6-month eGFRs of 30–59 ml/min/1.73m² have total costs 48% lower than those <30 ml/min/1.73m². For recipients with graft failure monthly costs begin to rise 3–4 months prior to failure, with incremental costs of over $38,000 during the month of failure. Mean annual total incremental costs of graft failure are over $150,000. Total costs post-transplant are strongly correlated with eGFR. Graft failure in the first year is an expensive, months-long process. Further reductions in early graft failures could yield significant human and economic benefits.

Immunosenescence: an unexplored role in glomerulonephritis

Immunosenescence is a natural ageing phenomenon with alterations in innate and especially adaptive immunity and contributes to reduced antimicrobial defence and chronic low‐grade inflammation. This is mostly reflected by an increase in organ‐directed and/or circulating reactive and cytolytic terminally differentiated T cells that have lost their expression of the costimulatory receptor CD28. Apart from being induced by a genetic predisposition, ageing or viral infections (particularly cytomegalovirus infection), immunosenescence is accelerated in many inflammatory diseases and uraemia. This translates into an enhancement of vascular inflammation and cardiovascular disease varying from endothelial dysfunction to plaque rupture. Emerging data point to a mechanistic role of CD28^null T cells in glomerulonephritis, where they initiate and propagate local inflammation in concordance with dendritic cells and macrophages. They are suitably equipped to escape immunological dampening by the absence of homing to lymph nodes, anti‐apoptotic properties and resistance to suppression by regulatory T cells. Early accumulation of senescent CD28^null T cells precedes glomerular or vascular injury, and targeting these cells could open avenues for early treatment interventions that aim at abrogating a detrimental vicious cycle.

Effect of the Interrelation between CYP3A5 Genotype, Concentration/Dose Ratio and Intrapatient Variability of Tacrolimus on Kidney Graft Function: Monte Carlo Simulation Approach

Background: Tacrolimus (Tac) is characterized by large between- and within-patient (IPV) variability in pharmacokinetics and exposure. Aim: This study aimed to assess and validate the effect of Tac IPV and trough concentration-to-dose ratio (C₀/D) over 6–12 months on reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values in the late period after kidney transplantation (Tx), applying Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. Methods: The previously published linear regression was the basis for MC simulation, performed to determine how variations in significant predictors affect the distribution of eGFR from 13 to 36 months post-transplantation. The input C₀/D values were derived from CYP3A5 genotype subgroups. Results: Patients characterized by high Tac IPV and low mean C₀/D over 6–12 months could have been at greater risk of lower eGFR values in a three-year period following Tx compared to the other patient groups. This effect was more pronounced in patients with a lower eGFR at the 6th month and a history of acute rejection. The proven contribution of CYP3A5 expresser genotype to low C₀/D values may suggest its indirect effect on long-term graft function. Conclusion: The findings indicate that simultaneous assessment of Tac IPV, C₀/D, and CYP3A5 genotype may identify patients at risk of deterioration of graft function in the long-term post-transplantation period.