Estimating the causal effect of embryo transfer day on clinical in vitro fertilization outcomes using propensity score matching

Causal inference indicates that poor responders have similar outcomes with the antagonist protocol compared with flare

OBJECTIVE

To use causal inference to investigate whether the flare or antagonist protocol is better for poor responders going through controlled ovarian stimulation.

DESIGN

A retrospective study.

SETTING

Retrieval cycles from the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcomes Reporting System.

PATIENTS

Patients in the United States underwent autologous in vitro fertilization cycles from 2014 to 2019 using either the flare or antagonist protocol.

INTERVENTION

Not applicable.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Primary outcomes included oocytes retrieved, fertilized oocytes (2PNs), blastocysts, the cumulative live birth rate (CLBR), and cycle cancelation rate.

RESULTS

After propensity score matching, patients with a predicted poor response (antimüllerian hormone, <0.5) on their first in vitro fertilization cycle had similar outcomes on the antagonist protocol (CLBR of 14.2%, 95% confidence intervals [CIs]: 13.6%, 14.8%) compared with flare (CLBR of 13.6%, 95% CIs: 12.4%, 14.8%). We evaluated patients undergoing a second cycle after having a poor response (<4 oocytes retrieved) on their first cycle. Patients in the antagonist-to-antagonist group had a similar change in outcomes between the first and second cycles (average CLBR improvement of 13.9%, 95% CIs: 12.1%, 15.6%) compared with the antagonist-to-flare group (average CLBR improvement of 14.4%, 95% CIs: 10.9%, 18.3%). In addition, patients in the flare-to-antagonist group had a similar change in outcomes between the first and second cycles (average CLBR improvement of 10.4%, 95% CIs: 6.6%, 14.5%) compared with the flare-to-flare group (average CLBR improvement of 9.0%, 95% CIs: 5.1%, 13.4%).

CONCLUSION

Poor responders have similar outcomes on an antagonist protocol compared with a flare protocol for both the first and second cycles.

Elevated estradiol levels on hCG trigger day adversely effects on the clinical pregnancy rates of blastocyst embryo transfer but not cleavage-stage embryo transfer in fresh cycles: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Elevated estradiol (E₂) levels are an inevitable outcome of the controlled ovulation hyperstimulation. However, the effect of this change on pregnancy is still uncertain. Our study aimed to analyze the impact of increased serum E₂ at the day of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) administration on the clinical outcomes of women with fresh embryo transfer (ET) cycles.

Methods

This study included 3,009 fresh ET cycles from October 2015 to September 2021. Based on the stage of embryos transferred, these cycles were categorized into the cleavage group and blastocyst group. Both groups were then divided into four sets according to E₂ levels when hCG was administered: set 1 (E₂ ≤ 2,000 pg/ml), set 2 (E₂ = 2,001-3,000 pg/ml), set 3 (E₂ = 3,001-4,000 pg/ml), and set 4 (E₂ > 4,000 pg/ml). The primary outcome was the clinical pregnancy rate (CPR). Binary logistics regression analysis was established to explore the association between CPR and E2 levels. Specifically, the threshold effect of serum E2 on CPR was revealed using the two-piecewise linear regression analyses.

Results

The multivariate regression model in the cleavage group showed that patients' CPR in set 4 was 1.59 times higher than those in reference set 1, but the statistical difference was insignificant (P = 0.294). As for the blastocyst group, patients in set 4 had a lower CPR with adjusted ORs of 0.43 (P = 0.039) compared to patients in set 1. The inflection point for the blastocyst group was 39.7 pg/dl according to the results of the two-piecewise linear regression model. When E₂ levels were over the point, the CPR decreased by 17% with every 1 pg/dl increases in serum E₂ (adjusted OR = 0.83, 95% CI [0.72-0.96], P = 0.012).

Conclusions

Elevated E₂ levels (>39.7 pg/dl) on hCG trigger day were associated with decreased CPR in patients with fresh blastocyst ET. However, it had no similar effect on the CPR of patients with fresh cleavage-stage ET.