Prognostic survival model for people diagnosed with invasive cutaneous melanoma

Aquaporin 1, Aquaporin 8, and Aquaporin 9 Expressions in Malignant Melanoma: A Possible Correlation with Prognosis and Clinical Outcome

Aquaporins (AQPs) are small transmembrane proteins able to facilitate the passive transport of water and small molecules throughout cells. Several studies have demonstrated that modulation of AQPs' expression contributes to cancer development and progression. However, to date, very little is known about their involvement in malignant melanoma (MM) progression. In this retrospective observational study, we evaluated the correlation between AQP1, -8, and -9 expression and the clinical outcomes of 58 patients diagnosed with MM from 2014 to 2016, of which 14 were diagnosed as nodular melanoma (NM) and 44 as superficial spreading melanoma (SSM). In general, we found that AQPs were more highly expressed in SSM than NM, suggesting a potential correlation with prognosis. While analyzing the expression of each AQP, we discovered that AQP1 was associated with a specific body site and low mitotic index, AQP8 with a negative sentinel lymph node, and AQP9 with the Breslow thickness and lack of ulcerations. Together with the survival analysis performed in this study, our results suggest that the expression of AQP1, -8, and -9 could be correlated with a better prognosis for malignant melanoma.

Population-based prognostic instrument (SweMR 2.0) for melanoma-specific survival - An ideal tool for individualised treatment decisions for Swedish patients

INTRODUCTION

The prognosis for patients with melanoma has improved due to better treatments in recent years and updated tools to accurately predict an individual's risk are warranted. This study aims to describe a prognostic instrument for patients with cutaneous melanoma and its potential as a clinical device for treatment decisions.

METHODS

Patients with localised invasive cutaneous melanoma diagnosed in 1990-2021 with data on tumour thickness were identified from the population-based Swedish Melanoma Registry. The parametric Royston-Parmar (RP) method was used to estimate melanoma-specific survival (MSS) probabilities. Separate models were constructed for patients (≤1 mm) and (>1 mm) and prognostic groups were created based on all combinations of age, sex, tumour site, tumour thickness, absence/presence of ulceration, histopathologic type, Clark's level of invasion, mitoses and sentinel lymph node (SLN) status.

RESULTS

In total, 72 616 patients were identified, 41 764 with melanoma ≤1 mm and 30 852 with melanoma >1 mm. The most important variable was tumour thickness for both (≤1 mm) and (>1 mm), that explained more than 50% of the survival. The second most important variables were mitoses (≤1 mm) and SLN status (>1 mm). The prognostic instrument successfully created probabilities for >30 000 prognostic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The Swedish updated population-based prognostic instrument, predicts MSS survival up to 10 years after diagnosis. The prognostic instrument gives more representative and up-to-date prognostic information for Swedish patients with primary melanoma than the present AJCC staging. Additional to clinical use and the adjuvant setting, the information retrieved could be used to plan future studies.

Predictive accuracy of risk prediction models for recurrence, metastasis and survival for early-stage cutaneous melanoma: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To identify prognostic models for melanoma survival, recurrence and metastasis among American Joint Committee on Cancer stage I and II patients postsurgery; and evaluate model performance, including overall survival (OS) prediction.

DESIGN

Systematic review and narrative synthesis.

DATA SOURCES

Searched MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Science Citation Index and grey literature sources including cancer and guideline websites from 2000 to September 2021.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Included studies on risk prediction models for stage I and II melanoma in adults ≥18 years. Outcomes included OS, recurrence, metastases and model performance. No language or country of publication restrictions were applied.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two pairs of reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias using the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies checklist and the Prediction study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. Heterogeneous predictors prevented statistical synthesis.

RESULTS

From 28 967 records, 15 studies reporting 20 models were included; 8 (stage I), 2 (stage II), 7 (stages I-II) and 7 (stages not reported), but were clearly applicable to early stages. Clinicopathological predictors per model ranged from 3-10. The most common were: ulceration, Breslow thickness/depth, sociodemographic status and site. Where reported, discriminatory values were ≥0.7. Calibration measures showed good matches between predicted and observed rates. None of the studies assessed clinical usefulness of the models. Risk of bias was high in eight models, unclear in nine and low in three. Seven models were internally and externally cross-validated, six models were externally validated and eight models were internally validated.

CONCLUSIONS

All models are effective in their predictive performance, however the low quality of the evidence raises concern as to whether current follow-up recommendations following surgical treatment is adequate. Future models should incorporate biomarkers for improved accuracy.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018086784.

A prognostic survival model for women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer in Queensland, Australia

PURPOSE

Prognostic models can help inform patients on the future course of their cancer and assist the decision making of clinicians and patients in respect to management and treatment of the cancer. In contrast to previous studies considering survival following treatment, this study aimed to develop a prognostic model to quantify breast cancer-specific survival at the time of diagnosis.

METHODS

A large (n = 3323), population-based prospective cohort of women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer in Queensland, Australia between 2010 and 2013, and followed up to December 2018. Data were collected through a validated semi-structured telephone interview and a self-administered questionnaire, along with data linkage to the Queensland Cancer Register and additional extraction from medical records. Flexible parametric survival models, with multiple imputation to deal with missing data, were used.

RESULTS

Key factors identified as being predictive of poorer survival included more advanced stage at diagnosis, higher tumour grade, "triple negative" breast cancers, and being symptom-detected rather than screen detected. The Harrell's C-statistic for the final predictive model was 0.84 (95% CI 0.82, 0.87), while the area under the ROC curve for 5-year mortality was 0.87. The final model explained about 36% of the variation in survival, with stage at diagnosis alone explaining 26% of the variation.

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to confirming the prognostic importance of stage, grade and clinical subtype, these results highlighted the independent survival benefit of breast cancers diagnosed through screening, although lead and length time bias should be considered. Understanding what additional factors contribute to the substantial unexplained variation in survival outcomes remains an important objective.

Characteristics, Prognosis, and Competing Risk Nomograms of Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma: Evidence for Pigmentary Disorders

Purpose

Cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) always presents as a complex disease process with poor prognosis. The objective of the present study was to explore the influence of solitary or multiple cancers on the prognosis of patients with CMM to better understand the landscape of CMM.

Methods

We reviewed the records of CMM patients between 2004 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. The cumulative incidence function was used to represent the probabilities of death. A novel causal inference method was leveraged to explore the risk difference to death between different types of CMM, and nomograms were built based on competing risk models.

Results

The analysis cohort contained 165,043 patients with CMM as the first primary malignancy. Patients with recurrent CMM and multiple primary tumors had similar overall survival status (p = 0.064), while their demographics and cause-specific death demonstrated different characteristics than those of patients with solitary CMM (p < 0.001), whose mean survival times are 75.4 and 77.3 months and 66.2 months, respectively. Causal inference was further applied to unveil the risk difference of solitary and multiple tumors in subgroups, which was significantly different from the total population (p < 0.05), and vulnerable groups with high risk of death were identified. The established competing risk nomograms had a concordance index >0.6 on predicting the probabilities of death of CMM or other cancers individually across types of CMM.

Conclusion

Patients with different types of CMM had different prognostic characteristics and different risk of cause-specific death. The results of this study are of great significance in identifying the high risk of cause-specific death, enabling targeted intervention in the early period at both the population and individual levels.

Personalized Model to Predict Keratoconus Progression From Demographic, Topographic, and Genetic Data

PURPOSE

To generate a prognostic model to predict keratoconus progression to corneal crosslinking (CXL).

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

We recruited 5025 patients (9341 eyes) with early keratoconus between January 2011 and November 2020. Genetic data from 926 patients were available. We investigated both keratometry or CXL as end points for progression and used the Royston-Parmar method on the proportional hazards scale to generate a prognostic model. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for each significant covariate, with explained variation and discrimination, and performed internal-external cross validation by geographic regions.

RESULTS

After exclusions, model fitting comprised 8701 eyes, of which 3232 underwent CXL. For early keratoconus, CXL provided a more robust prognostic model than keratometric progression. The final model explained 33% of the variation in time to event: age HR (95% CI) 0.9 (0.90-0.91), maximum anterior keratometry 1.08 (1.07-1.09), and minimum corneal thickness 0.95 (0.93-0.96) as significant covariates. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with keratoconus (n=28) did not significantly contribute to the model. The predicted time-to-event curves closely followed the observed curves during internal-external validation. Differences in discrimination between geographic regions was low, suggesting the model maintained its predictive ability.

CONCLUSIONS

A prognostic model to predict keratoconus progression could aid patient empowerment, triage, and service provision. Age at presentation is the most significant predictor of progression risk. Candidate SNPs associated with keratoconus do not contribute to progression risk.

Optimal surveillance strategies for patients with stage 1 cutaneous melanoma post primary tumour excision: three systematic reviews and an economic model

BACKGROUND

Malignant melanoma is the fifth most common cancer in the UK, with rates continuing to rise, resulting in considerable burden to patients and the NHS.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of current and alternative follow-up strategies for stage IA and IB melanoma.

REVIEW METHODS

Three systematic reviews were conducted. (1) The effectiveness of surveillance strategies. Outcomes were detection of new primaries, recurrences, metastases and survival. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration's Risk-of-Bias 2.0 tool. (2) Prediction models to stratify by risk of recurrence, metastases and survival. Model performance was assessed by study-reported measures of discrimination (e.g. D-statistic, Harrel's c-statistic), calibration (e.g. the Hosmer-Lemeshow 'goodness-of-fit' test) or overall performance (e.g. Brier score, R ²). Risk of bias was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). (3) Diagnostic test accuracy of fine-needle biopsy and ultrasonography. Outcomes were detection of new primaries, recurrences, metastases and overall survival. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool. Review data and data from elsewhere were used to model the cost-effectiveness of alternative surveillance strategies and the value of further research.

RESULTS

(1) The surveillance review included one randomised controlled trial. There was no evidence of a difference in new primary or recurrence detected (risk ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.43 to 1.31). Risk of bias was considered to be of some concern. Certainty of the evidence was low. (2) Eleven risk prediction models were identified. Discrimination measures were reported for six models, with the area under the operating curve ranging from 0.59 to 0.88. Three models reported calibration measures, with coefficients of ≥ 0.88. Overall performance was reported by two models. In one, the Brier score was slightly better than the American Joint Committee on Cancer scheme score. The other reported an R ² of 0.47 (95% confidence interval 0.45 to 0.49). All studies were judged to have a high risk of bias. (3) The diagnostic test accuracy review identified two studies. One study considered fine-needle biopsy and the other considered ultrasonography. The sensitivity and specificity for fine-needle biopsy were 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.97) and 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.97), respectively. For ultrasonography, sensitivity and specificity were 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.03 to 1.00) and 0.99 (95% confidence interval 0.96 to 0.99), respectively. For the reference standards and flow and timing domains, the risk of bias was rated as being high for both studies. The cost-effectiveness results suggest that, over a lifetime, less intensive surveillance than recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence might be worthwhile. There was considerable uncertainty. Improving the diagnostic performance of cancer nurse specialists and introducing a risk prediction tool could be promising. Further research on transition probabilities between different stages of melanoma and on improving diagnostic accuracy would be of most value.

LIMITATIONS

Overall, few data of limited quality were available, and these related to earlier versions of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging. Consequently, there was considerable uncertainty in the economic evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite adoption of rigorous methods, too few data are available to justify changes to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommendations on surveillance. However, alternative strategies warrant further research, specifically on improving estimates of incidence, progression of recurrent disease; diagnostic accuracy and health-related quality of life; developing and evaluating risk stratification tools; and understanding patient preferences.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018086784.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol 25, No. 64. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Evaluation of the efficacy of 3D total-body photography with sequential digital dermoscopy in a high-risk melanoma cohort: protocol for a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Melanoma is Australia's fourth most common cancer. Early detection is fundamental in maximising health outcomes and minimising treatment costs. To date, population-based screening programmes have not been justified in health economic studies. However, a skin surveillance approach targeting high-risk individuals could improve the cost-benefit ratio.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This paper describes a 2-year longitudinal randomised controlled trial (RCT) to compare routine clinical care (control) with an intensive skin surveillance programme (intervention) consisting of novel three-dimensional (3D) total-body photography (TBP), sequential digital dermoscopy and melanoma-risk stratification, in a high-risk melanoma cohort. Primary outcomes will evaluate clinical, economic and consumer impact of the intervention. Clinical outcomes will evaluate differences in the rate of lesion excisions/biopsies per person, benign to malignant ratio for excisions and thickness of melanomas diagnosed. A health economic analysis using government data repositories will capture healthcare utilisation and costs relating to skin surveillance. Consumer questionnaires will examine intervention acceptability, the psychological impact, and attitudes towards melanoma risk and sun protective behaviour. Secondary outcomes include the development of a holistic risk algorithm incorporating clinical, phenotypic and genetic factors to facilitate the identification of those most likely to benefit from this surveillance approach. Furthermore, the feasibility of integrating the intervention with teledermatology to enhance specialist care in remote locations will be evaluated. This will be the first RCT to compare a targeted surveillance programme utilising new 3D TBP technology against current routine clinical care for individuals at high risk of melanoma.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has received Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC) approval from both Metro South Health HREC (HREC/17/QPAH/816) and The University of Queensland HREC (2018000074).

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ANZCTR12618000267257; Pre-results.

A Population-Based Comparison of the AJCC 7th and AJCC 8th Editions for Patients Diagnosed with Stage III Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma in Sweden

BACKGROUND

Cutaneous melanoma is steadily increasing worldwide. The new AJCC 8th edition was recently launched and introduced several changes in melanoma staging, particularly for stage III. We conducted a population-based registry study with the purpose to evaluate the impact and prognostic accuracy of the new classification in Sweden.

METHODS

Consecutive patients diagnosed with stage III melanoma between January 2005 and September 2017 were identified by the Swedish Melanoma Registry (SMR) and included for analyses. Patients with multiple primary melanomas were excluded. Patients were classified according to the AJCC 7th as well as the 8th edition. Melanoma-specific survival (MSS) was retrieved from the Swedish Cause of Death Registry.

RESULTS

A total of 2067 eligible patients were identified from the SMR; 1150 patients (57%) changed stage III subgroup when reclassified according to the AJCC 8th edition. The median 5- and 10-year MSS for the whole cohort of stage III melanoma patients was 59% and 51% respectively. The MSS for substage IIIA, B, and C were all improved when patients were reclassified by using to the AJCC 8th edition. The newly defined substage IIID had the worst prognosis with a 10-year MSS of 16%.

CONCLUSIONS

A high proportion of patients diagnosed with stage III melanoma in Sweden between 2005 and 2017 was restaged to another subgroup, when they were reclassified according to the AJCC 8th of staging manual. We established an improved MSS for all substages compared with the former AJCC 7th edition. This may have implications on decisions about adjuvant treatment.

The existence of early stage oral mucosal melanoma: A 10-year retrospective analysis of 170 patients in a single institute

BACKGROUND

Oral mucosal melanoma (OMM) is an aggressive tumor with an extremely low incidence, and the current TNM Staging System has classified all OMMs as high stage. However, controversy remains regarding the existence of early stage OMMs.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The clinical and pathological features, treatments and outcomes of 170 OMM patients treated in a single institution from January 2007 to July 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify significant prognostic factors for overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis identified positive cervical lymph nodes (p < 0.0001), nodular OMMs (p < 0.0001), ulceration (p = 0.002), and level III or level IV invasion (p < 0.0001) as independent poor prognostic factors for OS. Nodular OMM patients with a tumor size ≤1 cm had a better outcome than those with a tumor size >1 cm (p < 0.0001). Twenty-two patients with superficial invasion had a favorable survival without the need of adjuvant therapy (postoperative chemotherapy or radiotherapy), and the current TNM Staging System was not suitable for those patients. Patients with deep invasion were more likely to suffer from recurrence and distant metastasis.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumor size ≤1 cm and OMM in situ, although extremely rare, do exist. It is advisable for AJCC to consider tumor size ≤1 cm and OMM in situ as the early stage of OMM when updating the new Oral Melanoma Staging System.

The current application of the Royston-Parmar model for prognostic modeling in health research: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Prognostic models incorporating survival analysis predict the risk (i.e., probability) of experiencing a future event over a specific time period. In 2002, Royston and Parmar described a type of flexible parametric survival model called the Royston-Parmar model in Statistics in Medicine, a model which fits a restricted cubic spline to flexibly model the baseline log cumulative hazard on the proportional hazards scale. This feature permits absolute measures of effect (e.g., hazard rates) to be estimated at all time points, an important feature when using the model. The Royston-Parmar model can also incorporate time-dependent effects and be used on different scales (e.g., proportional odds, probit). These features make the Royston-Parmar model attractive for prediction, yet their current uptake for prognostic modeling is unknown. Thus, the objectives were to conduct a scoping review of how the Royston-Parmar model has been applied to prognostic models in health research, to raise awareness of the model, to identify gaps in current reporting, and to offer model building considerations and reporting suggestions for other researchers.

METHODS

Five electronic databases and gray literature indexed in web sources from 2001 to 2016 were searched to identify articles for inclusion in the scoping review. Two reviewers independently screened 1429 articles, and after applying exclusion criteria through a two-step screening process, data from 12 studies were abstracted.

RESULTS

Since 2001, only 12 studies were identified that used the Royston-Parmar model in some capacity for prognostic modeling, 10 of which used the model as the basis for their prognostic model. The restricted cubic spline varied across studies in the number of interior knots (range 1 to 6), and only three studies reported knot placement. Three studies provided details about the baseline function, with two studies using a figure and the third providing coefficients. However, no studies provided adequate information on their restricted cubic spline to permit others to validate or completely use the model.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the advantages of the Royston-Parmar model for prognostic models, they are not widely used in health research. Better reporting of details about the restricted cubic spline is needed, so the prognostic model can be used and validated by others.

REGISTRATION

The protocol was registered with Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/r3232/).

Reduced disease-specific survival following a diagnosis of multiple primary cutaneous malignant melanomas-a nationwide, population-based study

Outcome data comparing patients with multiple primary invasive cutaneous malignant melanomas (MPMs) to single primary invasive cutaneous malignant melanomas (SPMs) show conflicting results. We have analyzed differences in disease-specific survival between these patients in a nationwide population-based setting. From the Swedish Melanoma Register, 27,235 patients were identified with a first invasive cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) between 1990 and 2007, followed-up through 2013. Of these, 700 patients developed MPMs. Cox proportional hazard regression was used for adjusted cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs). An interval of ≤5 years between CMM diagnoses was significantly correlated to a decreased CMM-specific survival in Stage I-II MPM- vs. SPM-patients (HR 1.32; 95% CI 1.04-1.67; p = 0.02). MPM-patients with longer time interval between diagnoses experienced similar risk of CMM-death as SPM-patients. The risk of CMM-death increased by almost 50% above the expected outcome according to stage of the index CMM by the diagnosis of a second CMM (HR 1.48; 95% CI 1.19-1.85; p < 0.001). MPM vs. SPM-patients had a worse outcome (HR 1.38; 95% CI 1.05-1.83; p = 0.001). This emphasizes the importance of prevention efforts in SPM-patients to decrease the risk of subsequent CMMs and has implications for more vigilant follow-up in MPM-patients.

Societal preferences for adjuvant melanoma health states: UK and Australia

BACKGROUND

No studies have measured preference-based utility weights for specific toxicities and outcomes associated with approved and investigational adjuvant treatments for patients with resected high-risk melanoma.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted in the United Kingdom and Australia to obtain utilities for 14 adjuvant melanoma health states. One-on-one interviews were conducted using standard gamble; utility weights range from 0.0, dead, to 1.0, full health. Supplemental risk questions also were asked.

RESULTS

Among 155 participants (52% male; mean age, 46 years) "adjuvant treatment no toxicities" (0.89) was most preferred, followed by "induction treatment" (0.88), and "no treatment" (0.86). Participants least preferred "cancer recurrence" (0.62); the utility for "cancer recurrence and 10-year survival with treatment" was 0.70. Disutilities for grade 2 toxicities ranged from -0.06 for fatigue to -0.13 for hypophysitis. The mean maximum acceptable risk of a life-threatening event ranged from 30% for a 6% increase in the chance of remaining cancer free over 3 years to 40% for an 18% increase; Australian respondents were willing to take higher risks.

CONCLUSION

Reproducible health utilities for adjuvant melanoma health states were obtained from the general population in two countries. These utilities can be incorporated into treatment-specific cost-effectiveness evaluations.

Systematic review of psychosocial outcomes for patients with advanced melanoma

BACKGROUND

New advanced melanoma therapies are associated with improved survival; however, quality of survivorship, particularly psychosocial outcomes, for patients overall and those treated with newer therapies is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

Synthesize qualitative and quantitative evidence about psychosocial outcomes for advanced (stage III/IV) melanoma patients.

METHODS

Five databases were searched (01/01/1980 to 31/01/2016). Inclusion criteria were as follows: advanced melanoma patients or sub-group analysis; assessed psychosocial outcomes; and English language.

RESULTS

Fifty-two studies met review criteria (4 qualitative, 48 quantitative). Trials comprise mostly medical not psychosocial interventions, with psychosocial outcomes assessed within broader quality of life measures. Patients receiving chemotherapy or IFN-alpha showed decreased emotional and social function and increased distress. Five trials of newer therapies appeared to show improvements in emotional and social function. Descriptive studies suggest that patients with advanced, versus localized disease, had decreased emotional and social function and increased distress. Contributors to distress were largely unexplored, and no clear framework described coping/adjustment trajectories. Patients with advanced versus localized disease had more supportive care needs, particularly amount, quality, and timing of melanoma-related information, communication with and emotional support from clinicians. Limitations included: lack of theoretical underpinnings guiding study design; inconsistent measurement approaches; small sample sizes; non-representative sampling; and cross-sectional design.

CONCLUSIONS

Quality trial evidence is needed to clarify the impact of treatment innovations for advanced melanoma on patients' psychosocial well-being. Survivorship research and subsequent translation of that knowledge into programs and services currently lags behind gains in the medical treatment of advanced melanoma, a troubling circumstance that requires immediate and focused attention.

Ten-Year Survival after Multiple Invasive Melanomas Is Worse than after a Single Melanoma: a Population-Based Study

The prognosis of melanoma patients who are diagnosed with multiple primary lesions remains controversial. We used a large population-based cohort to re-examine this issue, applying a delayed entry methodology to avoid survival bias. Of 32,238 eligible patients diagnosed between 1995 and 2008, 29,908 (93%) had a single invasive melanoma, 2,075 (6%) had two, and 255 (1%) had three. Allowing for differences in entry time, 10-year cause-specific survival for these three groups was 89% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 88-90%), 83% (95% CI = 80-86%), and 67% (95% CI = 54-81%), respectively. After adjustment for key prognostic factors, the hazard ratio of death within 10 years from melanoma was two times higher for those with two melanomas (hazard ratio = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.57-2.59; P < 0.001) and nearly three times higher when three melanomas were diagnosed (hazard ratio = 2.91, 95% CI = 1.64-5.18; P < 0.001) compared with people with a single melanoma. Melanoma-specific mortality remained elevated after adjusting for maximum thickness or ulceration of any melanoma regardless of the index tumor. After appropriately accounting for the interval between diagnosis of the first and subsequent melanomas, patients with multiple invasive melanomas have significantly poorer survival than patients with a single invasive melanoma.

Melanoma burden and recent trends among non-Hispanic whites aged 15-49years, United States

Melanoma is among the most common cancers for adolescents and young adults. Updated information on melanoma among adults <50 is needed. The objective of this study was to examine invasive melanoma in the United States among people aged 15-49years for the group at highest risk, non-Hispanic whites. In 2015, we analyzed population-based cancer registry data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Program of Cancer Registries and the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to examine melanoma incidence and death rates and trends among non-Hispanic whites aged 15-49years by sex and age. We also present incidence trends with regard to thickness and site on the body. Among non-Hispanic whites aged 15-49years, rates were higher among females. Thin melanomas increased among both sexes during 1992-2006 and stabilized during 2006-2012. For the period 1992-2012, melanomas thicker than 4mm increased among males and melanomas 1.01-2.00mm thick increased among females. Melanomas were most commonly diagnosed on the trunk and lower extremity among females and on the trunk and upper extremity among males. Increases in melanoma incidence among non-Hispanic whites aged 15-49years across various thicknesses suggest that melanoma trends are not solely related to increased screening but are, in part, related to true increases. Declines in melanoma rates of about 3% a year from the mid-2000s to 2012 in the youngest age groups offer hope that melanoma incidence may decline in future generations.

Clinical and biological determinants of melanoma progression: Should all be considered for clinical management?

Cutaneous melanoma is a heterogeneous disease affecting the regulation of multiple genes and proteins that contribute to melanoma progression. Survival for patients with locally invasive disease varies greatly, even within tumour stages based on current prognostic criteria. This has prompted investigations into the value of additional clinical or biological parameters predicting survival. In particular, the improved knowledge of tumour biology has fed the hope that the outcome may be predicted at the molecular level. The prognostic value of numerous potential biomarkers has therefore been evaluated in protein and gene expression studies, and genomic associations with melanoma prognosis are beginning to emerge. These potential biomarkers interrogate key tumour and host processes important for tumour development and progression, such as proliferation, invasion and migration through epithelial mesenchymal transition or the host immune or vascular responses. This research may allow more individualised information on prognosis if the challenges regarding the quality and validation of studies are overcome.

Molecular markers to complement sentinel node status in predicting survival in patients with high-risk locally invasive melanoma

Sentinel lymph node status is a major prognostic marker in locally invasive cutaneous melanoma. However, this procedure is not always feasible, requires advanced logistics and carries rare but significant morbidity. Previous studies have linked markers of tumour biology to patient survival. In this study, we aimed to combine the predictive value of established biomarkers in addition to clinical parameters as indicators of survival in addition to or instead of sentinel node biopsy in a cohort of high-risk melanoma patients. Patients with locally invasive melanomas undergoing sentinel lymph node biopsy were ascertained and prospectively followed. Information on mortality was validated through the National Death Index. Immunohistochemistry was used to analyse proteins previously reported to be associated with melanoma survival, namely Ki67, p16 and CD163. Evaluation and multivariate analyses according to REMARK criteria were used to generate models to predict disease-free and melanoma-specific survival. A total of 189 patients with available archival material of their primary tumour were analysed. Our study sample was representative of the entire cohort (N = 559). Average Breslow thickness was 2.5 mm. Thirty-two (17%) patients in the study sample died from melanoma during the follow-up period. A prognostic score was developed and was strongly predictive of survival, independent of sentinel node status. The score allowed classification of risk of melanoma death in sentinel node-negative patients. Combining clinicopathological factors and established biomarkers allows prediction of outcome in locally invasive melanoma and might be implemented in addition to or in cases when sentinel node biopsy cannot be performed.

Prognostic instrument for survival outcome in melanoma patients: based on data from the population-based Swedish Melanoma Register

BACKGROUND

Several major analyses have identified a consistent set of independent risk factors for cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). A few prognostic models have been presented but some are based on a limited number of patients and others are based on selected groups of patients referred to major institutions. No nationwide population-based prognostic instrument for survival of CMM has been presented. The Swedish Melanoma Register (SMR) database covers 99% of CMM diagnosed in Sweden and includes today >50,000 cases.

OBJECTIVES

To create a prognostic instrument based on SMR data to give highly reliable risk profiles for patients diagnosed with localised CMM.

METHODS

Clinicopathological data were linked to the cause of death registry for calculation of CMM-specific survival. A generalised gamma method was used to derive 1, 5 and 10year probabilities of death for each combination of patient and tumour data: age, sex, tumour site, tumour thickness, tumour ulceration, Clark's level of invasion and when applicable also outcome of sentinel node biopsy (SNB).

RESULTS

Tumour thickness had the highest prognostic impact, explaining 77% of the model. Women had 30% lower risk of death because of CMM than men. Presence of ulceration nearly doubled the risk. If the patient had a positive SNB status the risk of death due to CMM increased three times versus a negative SNB status.

CONCLUSION

This unique population-based prognostic model for primary CMM shows better survival than the American Joint Commission on Cancer prognostic model widely used. The reason is probably that the referral bias is eliminated in a population-based cohort.

mfpa: Extension of mfp using the ACD covariate transformation for enhanced parametric multivariable modeling

In a recent article, Royston (2015, Stata Journal 15: 275-291) introduced the approximate cumulative distribution (acd) transformation of a continuous covariate x as a route toward modeling a sigmoid relationship between x and an outcome variable. In this article, we extend the approach to multivariable modeling by modifying the standard Stata program mfp. The result is a new program, mfpa, that has all the features of mfp plus the ability to fit a new model for user-selected covariates that we call fp1(p₁, p₂). The fp1(p₁, p₂) model comprises the best-fitting combination of a dimension-one fractional polynomial (fp1) function of x and an fp1 function of acd (x). We describe a new model-selection algorithm called function-selection procedure with acd transformation, which uses significance testing to attempt to simplify an fp1(p₁, p₂) model to a submodel, an fp1 or linear model in x or in acd (x). The function-selection procedure with acd transformation is related in concept to the fsp (fp function-selection procedure), which is an integral part of mfp and which is used to simplify a dimension-two (fp2) function. We describe the mfpa command and give univariable and multivariable examples with real data to demonstrate its use.