Estimating long-term clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HPV 16/18 vaccine in China

Informing HPV vaccine pricing for government-funded vaccination in mainland China: a modelling study

Background

The high price of HPV vaccines remains a significant barrier to vaccine accessibility in China, hindering the country's efforts toward cervical cancer elimination and exacerbating health inequity. We aimed to inform HPV vaccine price negotiations by identifying threshold prices that ensure that a government-funded HPV vaccination programme is cost-effective or cost-saving.

Methods

We used a previously validated transmission model to estimate the health and economic impact of HPV vaccination over a 100-year time horizon from a healthcare payer perspective. Threshold analysis was conducted considering different settings (national, rural, and urban), cervical cancer screening scenarios (cytology-based or HPV DNA-based, with different paces of scale-up), vaccine types (four types available in China), vaccine schedules (two-dose or one-dose), mode of vaccination (routine vaccination with or without later switching to high-valency vaccines), willingness-to-pay thresholds, and decision-making criteria (cost-effective or cost-saving). Furthermore, we examined the budget impact of introducing nationwide vaccination at the identified threshold prices.

Findings

Using the current market price, national routine HPV vaccination with any currently available vaccine is unlikely cost-effective. Under a two-dose schedule, the prices of the four available HPV vaccine types cannot exceed $26-$36 per dose (44.1%-80.2% reduction from current market prices) depending on vaccine type to ensure the cost-effectiveness of the national programme. Adopting vaccination at threshold prices would require an annual increase of 72.18%-96.95% of the total annual National Immunization Programme (NIP) budget in China. A cost-saving routine vaccination programme requires vaccine prices of $5-$10 per dose (depending on vaccine type), producing a 21.38%-34.23% increase in the annual NIP budget. Adding the second dose is unlikely to be cost-effective compared to a one-dose schedule, with the threshold price approaching or even falling below zero. Rural pilot vaccination programmes require lower threshold prices compared with a national programme.

Interpretation

Our study could inform vaccine price negotiation and thus facilitate nationwide scale-up of current HPV vaccination pilot programmes in China. The evidence may potentially be valuable to other countries facing HPV introduction barriers due to high costs. This approach may also be adapted for other contexts that involve the introduction of a pricy vaccine.

Funding

CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS); Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

HPV vaccination strategy for 14-year-old females and economic returns for cervical cancer prevention in Wuxi City, China: a cost effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Since December 2021, Wuxi, China has offered a two-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to 14-year-old females for free. This study evaluated the costs and benefits of this vaccination scheduled in the Expanded Program on Immunization in Wuxi from the perspective of the cities' demographic characteristics, economic development, and policy support.

METHODS

The model-based economic evaluation used TreeAge Pro software to construct a decision tree-Markov model for the vaccination strategy in which 100,000 14-year-old females received two doses of bivalent HPV vaccine or no vaccination. Costs and effects of the strategy were assessed from a societal perspective through literature research and data obtained from the Wuxi Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. Univariate, multivariate, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses assessed the stability of the findings.

RESULTS

The cost of the bivalent HPV vaccine in Wuxi is 711.3 CNY. The two-dose of bivalent HPV vaccine for 100,000 14-year-old females would cost an additional 658,016 CNY compared to no vaccination, but would result in 1,960 Quality Adjustment Years of Life (QALYs). Using the per capita gross domestic product of 187,415 CNY in 2021 in Wuxi as the willingness-to-pay threshold, the vaccination strategy costs 3,357.37 CNY per QALY gained, which is much lower than the threshold, suggesting that it is a very cost-effective strategy. In addition, the vaccine strategy reduced the incidence of cervical cancer by 300 cases and cervical cancer deaths by 181 cases, representing a benefit-cost ratio of 2.86 (> 1) when health output outcomes were measured in monetary terms. These results suggested that the vaccination strategy was advantageous. Sensitivity analyses showed that changes in the parameters did not affect the conclusions and that the findings were robust.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to no vaccination, the delivery of two doses of bivalent HPV vaccine for 14-year-old females was a more highly cost-effective and optimal strategy.

Effect of vaccine hesitancy on female college students' willingness to receive the HPV vaccine in China: a multicenter cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the influencing factors of vaccine hesitancy on HPV vaccination willingness of female college students in order to promote the promotion of HPV vaccine in female college student population.

METHODS

From September-October 2022, a convenience sampling method was used to conduct a questionnaire survey among freshman female students from four higher vocational colleges in Henan Province, China. The survey comprised a general information questionnaire, as well as inquiries regarding vaccine hesitancy and willingness to receive the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine. In PSM analyses, vaccine-hesitant students were matched with non-vaccine-hesitant students at a 1:1 ratio; subsequently, both univariate and multivariatble logistic regression analyses were applied to assess the impact of vaccine hesitancy on female university students' willingness to receive the HPV vaccine.

RESULTS

The results revealed a vaccine hesitancy rate of 44.75% among female university students, with 82.9% expressing willingness to receive the HPV vaccine. The results of the multivariable ordinal logistic regression analysis indicated vaccine hesitancy is a risk factor for HPV vaccination intentions among female university students [OR = 4.38, 95% CI (2.74, 6.99), P < 0.001]. Furthermore, the field of study (P = 0.01) and independently seeking information about the HPV vaccine (P = 0.04) were identified as factors influencing female university students' willingness to receive the HPV vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-vaccine-hesitant students were more likely to be willing to receive the HPV vaccine than vaccine-hesitant students. Healthcare providers and educators should focus on vaccine attitudes among female college students to reduce vaccine hesitancy and enhance community education on cervical cancer, HPV infection and prevention through multichannel campaigns.

Inclusion of marginalized populations in HPV vaccine modeling: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Models simulating the potential impacts of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine have been used globally to guide vaccination policies and programs. We sought to understand how and why marginalized populations have been incorporated into HPV vaccine simulation models.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, and Embase to identify studies using simulation models of HPV vaccination incorporating one or more marginalized population through stratification or subgroup analysis. We extracted data on study characteristics and described these overall and by included marginalized groups.

RESULTS

We identified 36 studies that met inclusion criteria, which modeled vaccination in 21 countries. Models included men who have sex with men (MSM; k = 16), stratification by HIV status (k = 9), race/ethnicity (k = 6), poverty (k = 5), rurality (k = 4), and female sex workers (k = 1). When evaluating for a marginalized group (k = 10), HPV vaccination was generally found to be cost-effective, including for MSM, individuals living with HIV, and rural populations. In studies evaluating equity in cancer prevention (k = 9), HPV vaccination generally advanced equity, but this was sensitive to differences in HPV vaccine uptake and use of absolute or relative measures of inequities. Only one study assessed the impact of an intervention promoting HPV vaccine uptake.

DISCUSSION

Incorporating marginalized populations into decision models can provide valuable insights to guide decision making and improve equity in cancer prevention. More research is needed to understand the equity impact of HPV vaccination on cancer outcomes among marginalized groups. Research should emphasize implementation - including identifying and evaluating specific interventions to increase HPV vaccine uptake.

Do women with high-risk HPV E6/E7 mRNA test positivity and NILM cytology need colposcopy?

PURPOSE

This study aimed to assess the value of an HPV E6/E7 mRNA assay and HPV 16 18/45 genotype assay combined with age stratification for triaging women negative for intraepithelial lesions or malignancy (NILM) cytology.

METHODS

From January 2017 to December 2021, a total of 162,309 eligible women underwent cervical cancer screening at the Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University, China. Excluding those with negative HPV E6/E7 mRNA, abnormal and unsatisfactory cytology, and those who failed to undergo colposcopy, 6,845 women were ultimately included in our study. We analysed the triage guidance for different subtypes of HPV in the presence of NILM cytology.

RESULTS

Among 162,309 women, 19,834 (12.2%) were positive for HPV E6/E7 mRNA. Of the 6,845 women included in the study, 1,941 (28.4%), 561 (8.2%), 55 (0.8%) and 4,288 (62.6%) tested positive for HPV 16, HPV 18/45, HPV16/18/45 or other HR-HPV genotypes, respectively. The proportions of LSIL+ (including LSIL, HSIL and ICC) and HSIL+ (including HSIL and ICC) pathological results in the HPV 16/18/45 + group were 57% and 34.1%, respectively, higher than 36.3% and 11% in the other HR-HPV + group (χ2 = 653.214, P < 0.001). The percentages of LSIL + and HSIL + in the HPV16 + group (61.3% and 42.8%, respectively) and HPV16+/18/45 + group (76.3% and 41.9%, respectively) were much higher than those in the HPV18 + group (40.6% and 13.1%, respectively) (P < 0.001). However, there was no significant difference in the percentage of histopathological results between the HPV16 + group and HPV16+/18/45 + groups (P > 0.05). The above results were consistent after stratification according to age.

CONCLUSION

The rate of histopathological abnormalities was still high for the other HR-HPV subtypes with NILM cytology, although the rate of histopathological abnormalities was much higher for the HPV 16/18/45 positive subtypes. Therefore, colposcopy should be performed in women with HPV E6/E7 mRNA positivity and NILM cytology, regardless of age and HPV genotype.

Vaccinating women previously treated for human papillomavirus-related cervical precancerous lesions is highly cost-effective in China

Background

The 2021 Chinese Expert Consensus on the Clinical Application of the Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccine recommended vaccination for women who previously received ablative or excisional treatment for high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL). This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in women previously treated for cervical precancerous lesions.

Methods

We used a Markov model to simulate the disease progression of both low- and high-risk HPV subtypes. We followed a cohort of 100,000 women aged 18-45 years who received treatment for cervical precancerous lesions for a lifetime (80 years). We used the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICER) with a 5% discount rate to measure the cost-effectiveness of nine vaccination strategies, including a combination of HPV bivalent (HPV-2), quadrivalent (HPV-4) and nonavalent vaccine (HPV-9), each with three vaccination doses (one-, two- and three-dose). We conducted one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We followed the CHEERS 2022 guidelines.

Results

Compared to the status quo, the nine vaccination strategies would result in $3.057-33.124 million incremental cost and 94-1,211 incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in 100,000 women previously treated for cervical precancerous lesions. Three vaccination strategies were identified on the cost-effectiveness frontier. In particular, ICER for one-dose HPV-4 vaccination was US$10,025/QALY compared to the status quo (no vaccination); ICER for two-dose HPV-4 vaccination was US$17,641//QALY gained compared to one-dose HPV-4 vaccination; ICER for three-dose HPV-4 vaccination was US$27,785/QALY gained compared with two-dose HPV-4 vaccination. With a willingness-to-pay of three times gross domestic product per capita (US$37655), three-dose HPV-4 vaccination was the most cost-effective vaccination strategy compared with the lower-cost non-dominated strategy on the cost-effectiveness frontier. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed a 99.1% probability of being cost-effective. If the cost of the HPV-9 is reduced to 50% of the current price, three-dose HPV-9 vaccination would become the most cost-effective strategy.

Discussion

Three-dose HPV-4 vaccination is the most cost-effective vaccination strategy for women treated for precancerous cervical lesions in the Chinese setting.

The cost-effectiveness of bivalent, quadrivalent, and nine-valent HPV vaccination in Asia: a systematic review

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to systematically review the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in Asia.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of papers indexed in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science covering the period from 1 January 2000 to 13 August 2020.

RESULTS

Sixteen studies were included in the review. Half of them (8 studies) evaluated the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in high-income countries and regions (HICs) while the other eight studies were set in low- and middle-income countries and regions (LMICs). In HICs, the implementation of bivalent, quadrivalent and nine-valent HPV vaccination was all shown to be cost-effective. Most studies (7/8) also showed that it was cost-effective to implement bivalent, quadrivalent, and nine-valent HPV vaccines in LMICs. However, one study concluded that it was not cost-effective to implement bivalent HPV vaccination in Thailand.

CONCLUSION

In general, the implementation of bivalent, quadrivalent and nine-valent HPV vaccination for adolescent girls was cost-effective in both high-income countries and regions and low- and middle-income countries and regions in Asia. Policy makers in HICs could consider expanding the target vaccinated population, while for LMICs it is essential to reduce HPV vaccine price to a level at which the implementation of HPV vaccination is cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccine in China: a systematic review of modelling studies

OBJECTIVES

China suffers from high burdens of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer, whereas the uptake of HPV vaccine remains low. The first Chinese domestic HPV vaccine was released in 2019. However, collective evidence on cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in China has yet to be established. We summarised evidence on the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccine in China.

DESIGN

Systematic review and narrative synthesis DATA SOURCES: PubMed, EMBASE, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang Data were searched through 2 January 2021 ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: Cost-effectiveness studies using a modelling approach focusing on HPV vaccination interventions in the setting of China were included for review.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

We extracted information from the selected studies focusing on cost-effectiveness results of various vaccination programmes, key contextual and methodological factors influencing cost-effectiveness estimates and an assessment of study quality.

RESULTS

A total of 14 studies were included for review. Considerable heterogeneity was found in terms of the methodologies used, HPV vaccination strategies evaluated and study quality. The reviewed studies generally supported the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccine in China, although some reached alternative conclusions, particularly when assessed incremental to cervical cancer screening. Cost of vaccination was consistently identified as a key determinant for the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination programmes.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing HPV vaccination programmes should be complemented with expanded cervical cancer screening, while the release of lower-priced domestic vaccine offers more promising potential for initiating public HPV vaccination programmes. Findings of this study contributes important evidence for policies for cervical cancer prevention in China and methodological implications for future modelling efforts.

The Lifetime Cost Estimation of Human Papillomavirus-related Diseases in China: A Modeling Study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the lifetime treatment costs of patients with human papillomavirus (HPV) infection-related diseases in China and to provide cost estimates for the economic evaluation of HPV intervention strategies.

METHODS

We extracted real-world hospital data from 2012 to 2019 and screened for subjects who met the criteria of clinical diagnosis of HPV-related diseases to obtain country-specific inputs into a Markov decision model. The model simulated lifetime treatment costs for HPV from the perspective of a national payer. A 5% discount rate was applied. Costs were converted and inflated to 2020 US dollars (USD).

RESULTS

Using 2021 as the base year, the lifetime costs per patient for carcinoma in situ, local metastasis, and distant metastasis cervical cancer are $24,208 (95%CI: 18,793-30,897), $19,562 (95%CI: 14,456-25,567), and $17,599 (95%CI: 10,604-25,807), respectively. For carcinoma in situ, local metastasis, and distant metastasis vaginal cancer, the lifetime costs are $17,593 (95%CI: 14,962-23,596), $17,120 (95%CI: 13,215-22,417), and $22,411 (95%CI: 12,172-22,249), respectively. The base-case lifetime cost per patient for different stages of vulvar cancer/penile cancer/anal cancer/oral cancer/oropharyngeal cancer/laryngeal cancer falls within $17,120-$58,236.

CONCLUSIONS

Using real-world data, we calculated lifetime treatment costs of HPV-related cancer in China and found that the lifetime cost for patients exceeded $17,000 for various stages of disease. The national burden of HPV-related disease could be significantly reduced by eliminating HPV infection.

Modeling the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of a combined schoolgirl HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening program among Chinese women

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is common in women and also the main cause of cervical cancer. Based on a dynamic compartmental model, we aimed to evaluate the population impact and cost-effectiveness of strategies that combined cervical cancer screening and HPV schoolgirl vaccination for Chinese women. The effectiveness of interventions was assessed by comparing modeled scenarios to the status quo, where a 3-y cervical cancer screening program remained at a 20% coverage and without a universal HPV vaccination program. Our study demonstrated that increasing screening coverage from 20% to 50% would reduce the high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) prevalence to 5.4%, whereas a universal schoolgirl vaccination program using the quadrivalent vaccine (qHPV) with a coverage of 50% would reduce the prevalence to 2.9% by 2069. Scaling-up the cervical screening coverage to 50% will prevent 16,012 (95% CI: 8,791 to 25,913) Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) per year, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$ 10,958 (95% CI: $169 to $26,973)/DALY prevented. At the current qHPV price, vaccinating 50% of school girls will prevent 13,854 (95% CI: 8,355 to 20,776) DALYs/year, but the corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, US$ 83,043, 95% CI: $52,234 to $138,025) exceeds cost-effectiveness threshold (i.e., 3 times GDP per-capita of China: $30,792). The qHPV vaccine requires at least a 50% price reduction to be cost-effective. Vaccinating schoolgirls will result in a large population health benefit in the long term, but such a universal HPV vaccination program can only be cost-effective with a substantial price reduction.

Economic evaluation of human papillomavirus vaccination in the Global South: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Many reviews have been conducted on the economic evaluation of the HPV vaccine in global north countries. But there is a dearth of such reviews in the Global South countries. Hence, this systematic review aims to summarize studies done in these countries.

METHODS

Four databases PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar from 2009 to 2019 were searched for economic evaluations on HPV vaccination in the Global South countries. PRISMA guidelines were followed to include full-text articles. 40 original articles were shortlisted for full-text review.

RESULTS

Studies had varied models, assumptions, and results according to different scenarios. Most studies concluded HPV vaccination to be cost-effective under varied scenarios and vaccine cost was the most influential parameter affecting the sensitivity analyses, consequently incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. A wide range in the cost-effectiveness ratio was observed in the included studies due to different study settings, populations, and inconsistencies in modeling practices (variations in methodological approaches).

CONCLUSIONS

This review suggests the introduction of HPV vaccination alone or in combination with screening according to different countries. The price of the vaccine should be economical and funds for the vaccine should be provided by public sector firms.

Cost-effectiveness of 2-dose human papillomavirus vaccination for 12-year-old girls in Zhejiang Province: implications for China's expanded program on immunization

BACKGROUND

The high cost and insufficient supply of HPV vaccines have substantially slowed their implementation in lower-income countries. This study aimed to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness of two doses of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination (bivalent 16/18 vaccine; 2vHPV) compared to a no-vaccination scenario and a three-dose scenario in one province in China.

METHODS

A static Markov model was used to model a lifetime cohort of 100,000 girls aged 12 years at the start of vaccination. A two-dose vaccination schedule was assumed to be non-inferior to a three-dose schedule in terms of vaccine efficacy, and both vaccination schemes were assumed to provide lifelong protection. Incremental costs, health effects and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were used to measure the outcomes when comparing the different strategies.

RESULTS

Compared to no vaccination, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (Chinese yuan per quality-adjusted life year) of the two-dose vaccination strategy is 12,472, and the 2-dose strategy is calculated to be cost saving relative to the 3-dose vaccination strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Introducing the 2vHPV vaccine would be highly cost effective at a per-dose vaccine price of CNY 500, which has implications for cervical cancer control in China and other resource-limited countries.

Development and application of a framework to estimate health care costs in China: The cervical cancer example

Objectives

Information on healthcare costs in low-and-middle-income countries is limited. This study presents a framework to perform healthcare cost estimates for each province in China.

Methods

This study has two aims. Using cervical cancer as an example, the first aim is to use data (including micro-costing data) from one province to derive estimates for other provinces in China. This used provincial and national Chinese-language statistical reports and considered levels of service delivery, hospital-seeking behaviour, and the urban/rural population distribution. The second aim is to characterise the relationship between the reference costs estimated using the method mentioned above and two sets of cost estimates derived using simplified cost-scaling method with per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the Human Development Index (HDI). For simplified methods, regression modelling characterised the relationship between province-specific healthcare costs and macro-economic indicators, then we used the exponential fit to extrapolate costs.

Results

Using the reference method, the estimated costs were found to vary substantially by urban/rural regions and between provinces; the ratios of highest to lowest provincial costs were 3.5 for visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA), 4.4 for cold knife conisation (CKC) and 4.6 for stage II cancer treatment. The HDI-based scaling method generally resulted in a better fit to reference costs than the GDP method.

Conclusions

These reference costs for cervical cancer can inform cost-effectiveness evaluation of cervical screening and HPV vaccination in China. HDI-based methods for cost-scaling-based on social, as well as purely economic, factors-have potential to provide more accurate estimates.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of different types of human papillomavirus vaccination combined with a cervical cancer screening program in mainland China

BACKGROUND

China has a high prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) and a consequently high burden of disease with respect to cervical cancer. The HPV vaccine has proved to be effective in preventing cervical cancer and is now a part of routine immunization programs worldwide. It has also proved to be cost effective. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of 2-, 4-, and 9-valent HPV vaccines (hereafter, HPV2, 4 or 9) combined with current screening strategies in China.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed for a cohort of 100,000 HPV-free girls to simulate the natural history to HPV infection. Three recommended screening methods (1. liquid-based cytology test + HPV DNA test; 2. pap smear cytology test + HPV DNA test; 3. visual inspection with acetic acid) and three types of HPV vaccination program (HPV2/4/9) were incorporated into 15 intervention options, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated to determine the dominant strategies. Costs, transition probabilities and utilities were obtained from a review of the literature and national databases. One-way sensitivity analyses and threshold analyses were performed for key variables in different vaccination scenarios.

RESULTS

HPV9 combined with screening showed the highest health impact in terms of reducing HPV-related diseases and increasing the number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Under the current thresholds of willingness to pay (WTP, 3 times the per capita GDP or USD$ 23,880), HPV4/9 proved highly cost effective, while HPV2 combined with screening cost more and was less cost effective. Only when screening coverage increased to 60% ~ 70% did the HPV2 and screening combination strategy become economically feasible.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of the HPV4/9 vaccine with current screening strategies for adolescent girls was highly cost-effective and had a significant impact on reducing the HPV infection-related disease burden in Mainland China.