Competing risk analyses of overall survival and cancer-specific survival in patients with combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma after surgery

Disparities in Survival Outcomes Among Patients With Metastatic Melanoma in Texas: Implications for Policy and Interventions in the Era of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors

OBJECTIVES

Disparities exist in the length and quality of survival from melanoma. This study evaluated, in a Texas cohort, patient factors associated with melanoma survival and examined if newer immune-oncologic agents extend survival compared with conventional therapies.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of patients diagnosed with metastatic melanoma from 2011 to 2018 in the Texas Cancer Registry database. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression was used to evaluate patient characteristics associated with cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). The patient cohort was then grouped based on receipt of first-line immunotherapy or other therapies. The association between receipt of immunotherapy and survival was assessed with Kaplan-Meier analysis and inverse probability treatment weighted Cox regression.

RESULTS

There were 1372 patients with metastatic melanoma. Factors associated with increased melanoma mortality risk (CSS) included being male (HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.02-1.26), non-Hispanic black (HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.13-1.45), living in poorer counties (HR: 1.40, 95%CI: 1.20-1.64), and having multimorbidity (HR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.05-1.74). All minority races and Hispanics had poorer OS compared with non-Hispanic Whites. Patients who received first-line immunotherapy had significantly longer median (interquartile range) survival (CSS: 27.00 [21.00 to 42.00] mo vs. 16.00 [14.00 to 19.00] mo; OS: 22.00 [17.00 to 27.00] mo vs. 12.00 [11.00 to 14.00] mo). They also had reduced mortality risk (HR for CSS: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.73-0.88; P<0.0001; HR for OS: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.69-0.83; P<0.0001) compared with the nonimmunotherapy cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed differences in risks from melanoma survival based on patient demographic and clinical characteristics. Low socioeconomic status increased mortality risk, and first-line immunotherapy use favored survival. Health policies and tailored interventions that will promote equity in patient survival and survivorship are essential for managing metastatic melanoma.

Development and validation of two nomograms for predicting overall survival and Cancer-specific survival in prostate cancer patients with bone metastases: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer with bone metastasis has significant invasiveness and markedly poorer prognosis. The purpose of this study is to establish two nomograms for predicting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of prostate cancer patients with bone metastasis.

METHODS

From January 2000 to December 2018, a total of 2683 prostate adenocarcinoma with bone metastasis patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database. These patients were then divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort, with OS and CSS as the study endpoints. Correlation analyses were employed to assess the relationship between variables. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were utilized to ascertain the independent prognostic factors. Calibration curves and the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (time-dependent AUC) were employed to evaluate discrimination and calibration of the nomogram. DCA was applied to examine accuracy and clinical benefits. The clinical utility of the nomogram and the AJCC Stage System was compared using net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Lastly, the risk stratifications of the nomogram and the AJCC Stage System were compared.

RESULTS

There was no collinearity among the variables that were screened. The results of multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that seven variables (age, surgery, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, Gleason score, marital status) and six variables (age, surgery, lung metastasis, liver metastasis, Gleason score, marital status) were identified to establish the nomogram for OS and CSS, respectively. The calibration curves, time-dependent AUC curves, and DCA revealed that both nomograms had pleasant predictive power. Furthermore, NRI and IDI confirmed that the nomogram outperformed the AJCC Stage System.

CONCLUSION

Both nomograms had satisfactory accuracy and were validated to assist clinicians in evaluating the prognosis of PABM patients.

Incidental combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma in liver transplant patients: Does it have a worse prognosis?

Background and Aim

Combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma (CHC) requires attention clinically and pathologically after liver transplantation (LT) because of its unique biology, difficulties in diagnosis, and being rare. We aimed to present our single-center experience for this incidental combined tumor. It is aimed to present our single-center experience for this incidental combined tumor.

Materials and Methods

Seventeen patients with CHC were included in the study. There were 260 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients determined as the control group. Patients were evaluated for demographic, etiological, pathological features, and survival.

Results

Macrovascular and microvascular invasion levels were significantly higher in the CHC group (p<0.05). P53, CK19, and CK7 levels were significantly higher in the CHC group (p<0.05). Hepatocyte-specific antigen level was significantly higher in the HCC group. The mean overall survival was significantly higher in the HCC group (p<0.05).

Conclusion

Even though CHC is a rare liver tumor, it has features that need to be clarified regarding both survival and tumor biology. İnvestigating prognostic factors, especially in terms of survival and recurrence, will be very beneficial to identify candidates who will benefit from LT and be included in the indications for LT for CHC. This study evaluated the outcomes of patients showing combined HCC-intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in explant pathology.

A Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis of Advanced Schistosomiasis japonica in Dongzhi County-A Case Study

BACKGROUNDS

Advanced schistosomiasis is the late stage of schistosomiasis, seriously jeopardizing the quality of life or lifetime of infected people. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting mortality of patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica, taking Dongzhi County of China as a case study.

METHOD

Data of patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica were collected from Dongzhi Schistosomiasis Hospital from January 2019 to July 2022. Data of patients were randomly divided into a training set and validation set with a ratio of 7:3. Candidate variables, including survival outcomes, demographics, clinical features, laboratory examinations, and ultrasound examinations, were analyzed and selected by LASSO logistic regression for the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by concordance index (C-index), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). The calibration of the nomogram was evaluated by the calibration plots, while clinical benefit was evaluated by decision curve and clinical impact curve analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 628 patients were included in the final analysis. Atrophy of the right liver, creatinine, ascites level III, N-terminal procollagen III peptide, and high-density lipoprotein were selected as parameters for the nomogram model. The C-index, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of the nomogram were 0.97 (95% [CI]: [0.95-0.99]), 0.78 (95% [CI]: [0.64-0.87]), 0.97 (95% [CI]: [0.94-0.98]), 0.78 (95% [CI]: [0.64-0.87]), 0.97 (95% [CI]: [0.94-0.98]) in the training set; and 0.98 (95% [CI]: [0.94-0.99]), 0.86 (95% [CI]: [0.64-0.96]), 0.97 (95% [CI]: [0.93-0.99]), 0.79 (95% [CI]: [0.57-0.92]), 0.98 (95% [CI]: [0.94-0.99]) in the validation set, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the model fitted well between the prediction and actual observation in both the training set and validation set. The decision and the clinical impact curves showed that the nomogram had good clinical use for discriminating patients with high risk of death.

CONCLUSIONS

A nomogram was developed to predict prognosis of advanced schistosomiasis. It could guide clinical staff or policy makers to formulate intervention strategies or efficiently allocate resources against advanced schistosomiasis.

Development and validation of nomogram to predict very early recurrence of combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma after hepatic resection: a multi-institutional study

Background and objectives

Combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC) has a high incidence of early recurrence. The objective of this study is to construct a model predicting very early recurrence (VER) (i.e., recurrence within 6 months after surgery) of cHCC.

Methods

One hundred thirty-one consecutive patients from Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital served as a development cohort to construct a nomogram predicting VER by using multi-variable logistic regression analysis. The model was internally and externally validated in a validation cohort of 90 patients from Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital using the C concordance statistic, calibration analysis, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The VER nomogram contains microvascular invasion (MiVI), macrovascular invasion (MaVI), and CA19-9 > 25 mAU/mL. The model shows good discrimination with C-indexes of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.69–0.85) and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.66–0.86) in the development cohort and validation cohort respectively. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the model is clinically useful and the calibration of our model was favorable. Our model stratified patients into two different risk groups, which exhibited significantly different VER.

Conclusions

Our model demonstrated favorable performance in predicting VER in cHCC patients.

Clinicopathologic features, treatment, survival, and prognostic factors of combined hepatocellular and cholangiocarcinoma: A nomogram development based on SEER database and validation in multicenter study

PURPOSE

The aim of the study was to comprehensively understand the combined hepatocellular and cholangiocarcinoma (CHC) and develop a nomogram for prognostic prediction of CHC.

METHODS

Data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database (year 2004-2014). Propensity-score matching (PSM) was used to match the demographic characteristic of the CHC versus hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). A nomogram model was established to predict the prognosis in terms of cancer specific survival (CSS). The established nomogram was externally validated by a multicenter cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 71,756 patients enrolled in our study including 62,877 HCC patients, 566 CHC patients, and 8303 ICC patients. The CHC, HCC, and ICC are not exactly similar in clinical characteristic. After PSM, the CSS of CHC was better than HCC but comparable to ICC. Tumor size, M stage, surgery, chemotherapy, and surgery were independently prognostic factors of CHC and were included in the establishment of novel nomogram. The c-index of the novel nomogram in SEER training set and multicenter validation was 0.779 and 0.780, respectively, which indicated that the model was with better discrimination power. In addition, decision curve analyses proved the favorable potential clinical effect of the predictive model. Lastly, a risk classification based on nomogram also verified the reliability of the model.

CONCLUSION

CHC had better survival than HCC but was comparable to ICC. The nomogram was established based on tumor size, M stage, chemotherapy, surgery, and radiotherapy and well validated by external multicenter cohort.

Morbidity, Prognostic Factors, and Competing Risk Nomogram for Combined Hepatocellular-Cholangiocarcinoma

Background

Combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma (CHC) is a rare and heterogeneous histological subtype of primary liver cancer, which is still poorly understood. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological and clinical features, investigate the prognostic indicators, and develop a competing risk nomogram for CHC.

Methods

The study cohort was taken from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The annual percent change (APC) in incidence was calculated using the joinpoint regression. The nomogram was developed based on multivariate competing risk survival analyses and validated by calibration curves. Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, Harrell's C-index, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were obtained to compare prognostic performance. Decision curve analysis was introduced to examine the clinical value of the models.

Results

The overall incidence of CHC was 0.062 per 100,000 individuals in 2004 and 0.081 per 100,000 individuals in 2018, with an APC of 1.0% (P > 0.05). CHC displayed intermediate clinicopathological features of hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Race, tumor size, vascular invasion, extrahepatic invasion, distant metastasis, grade, surgery, and Metavir stage were confirmed as the independent predictors of cancer-specific survival. The constructed nomogram was well calibrated, which showed better discrimination power and higher net benefits than the current American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system. Patients with liver transplantation had better survival than those with hepatectomy, especially patients within the Milan Criteria (P=0.022 and P=0.015). There was no survival difference between liver transplantation and hepatectomy in patients beyond the Milan Criteria (P=0.340).

Conclusion

The morbidity of CHC remained stable between 2004 and 2018. The constructed nomogram could predict the prognosis with good performance, which was meaningful to individual treatment strategies optimization. CHC patients should also be considered as potential liver transplantation recipients, especially those within the Milan Criteria, but the finding still needs more evidence to be further confirmed.

Prediction of Survival and Analysis of Prognostic Factors for Patients With Combined Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Cholangiocarcinoma: A Population-Based Study

Background

Combined hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma (CHC) is an uncommon subtype of primary liver cancer. Because of limited epidemiological data, prognostic risk factors and therapeutic strategies for patients with CHC tend to be individualized. This study aimed to identify independent prognostic factors and develop a nomogram-based model for predicting the overall survival (OS) of patients with CHC.

Methods

We recruited eligible individuals from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2004 and 2015 and randomly divided them into the training or verification cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify independent variables associated with OS. Based on multivariate analysis, the nomogram was established, and its prediction performance was evaluated using the consistency index (C-index) and calibration curve.

Results

In total, 271 patients with CHC were included in our study. The median OS was 14 months, and the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 52.3%, 27.1%, and 23.3%, respectively. In the training cohort, multivariate analysis showed that the pathological grade (hazard ratio [HR], 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96–1.66), TNM stage (HR, 1.21; 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.44), and surgery (HR, 0.26; 95% CI: 0.17 - 0.40) were independent indicators of OS. The nomogram-based model related C-indexes were 0.76 (95% CI: 0.72 - 0.81) and 0.72 (95% CI: 0.66 - 0.79) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration of the nomogram showed good consistency of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates between the actual observed survival and predicted survival in both cohorts. The TNM stage (HR, 1.23; 95% CI: 1.01 - 1.49), and M stage (HR, 1.87; 95% CI: 1.14 3.05) were risk factors in the surgical treatment group. Surgical resection and liver transplantation could significantly prolong the survival, with no statistical difference observed.

Conclusions

The pathological grade, TNM stage, and surgery were independent prognostic factors for patients with CHC. We developed a nomogram model, in the form of a static nomogram or an online calculator, for predicting the OS of patients with CHC, with a good predictive performance.

Prediction of Prognosis for cHCC-CC Patients After Surgery: Comparison of Tumor Marker Score Based on AFP, CEA, CA19-9, and Other Clinical Stages

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of clinical stage as a prognostic factor in combined hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC-CC) patients is controversial.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Medical records of all pathologically confirmed cHCC-CC patients from 2000 to 2017 at West China Hospital were retrieved. Tumor marker score (TMS) was determined from optimal AFP, CEA, and CA19-9 cutoff values. Interaction and subgroup analysis were conducted according to potential confounders. Prognostic value of TMS and other prognostic models were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier (K-M) analysis, c-index, and time-dependent receiver operating curves (td-ROC).

RESULTS

Optimal cutoff values for preoperative AFP, CEA, and CA19-9 were 10.76 ng/mL, 5.24 ng/mL, and 31.54 U/mL, respectively. Among 128 patients, 24, 58, and 46 were classified into TMS 0, TMS 1, and TMS ≥ 2, respectively. TMS could stratify our series into groups of statistically different prognosis. Subgroup analysis according to potential confounders and test for interactions showed that TMS 1 and TMS ≥ 2 were stable risk factors relative to TMS 0. Univariate (HR: TMS1 = 2.30, p = 0.014; TMS ≥ 2 = 5.1, p < 0.001) and multivariate Cox regression analyses (HR: TMS1 = 1.72, p = 0.124; TMS ≥ 2 = 4.15, p < 0.001) identified TMS as an independent prognostic risk factor. TMS had good discrimination (c-index 0.666, 95% CI 0.619-0.714), and calibration plots revealed favorable consistency. Area under the curve (AUC) value of td-ROC for TMS and integrated AUC was higher than for other clinical stages at any month within 5 years postoperation.

CONCLUSION

TMS exhibited optimal prognostic value over other widely used clinical stages for cHCC-CC after surgery and may guide clinicians in prognostic prediction.

A New Scoring Method for Personalized Prognostic Prediction in Patients with Combined Hepatocellular and Cholangiocarcinoma After Surgery

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Combined hepatocellular and cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC-CCA) is a rare but aggressive primary liver cancer with dismal prognosis. We aim to develop a new scoring method for personalized prognostic prediction in patients with cHCC-CCA undergoing surgical resection.

METHODS

Between January 1993 and December 2015, a total of 296 Allen type C cHCC-CCA patients who had received surgical resection in Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital were retrospectively enrolled. A novel prognostic scoring method for cHCC-CCA (PSM-CHCC model) was established and validated. The predictive value of the new model was compared with current prognostic staging systems.

RESULTS

The scoring model was developed based on the independent prognostic variables identified by Cox regression model. Based on the PSM-CHCC model, patients were stratified into three prognostic subgroups according to their individual score: A (scoring 0-2), B (scoring 3-5), and C (scoring > 5). The prediction performance of the PSM-CHCC model outperformed the widely accepted TNM staging system and other staging systems in both training and validation cohorts. Subgroup analysis also verified the discrimination efficacy of the PSM-CHCC model.

CONCLUSIONS

The newly established PSM-CHCC model may facilitate prognostic stratification and clinical decision-making in patients with cHCC-CCA.

Combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma: An update on epidemiology, classification, diagnosis and management

BACKGROUND

Combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma (CHC) is a rare subtype of primary hepatic malignancies, with variably reported incidence between 0.4%-14.2% of primary liver cancer cases. This study aimed to systematically review the epidemiological, clinicopathological, diagnostic and therapeutic data for this rare entity.

DATA SOURCES

We reviewed the literature of diagnostic approach of CHC with special reference to its clinical, molecular and histopathological characteristics. Additional analysis of the recent literature in order to evaluate the results of surgical and systemic treatment of this entity has been accomplished.

RESULTS

The median age at CHC's diagnosis appears to be between 50 and 75 years. Evaluation of tumor markers [alpha fetoprotein (AFP), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA)] along with imaging patterns provides better opportunities for CHC's preoperative diagnosis. Reported clinicopathologic prognostic parameters possibly correlated with increased tumor recurrence and grimmer survival odds include advanced age, tumor size, nodal and distal metastases, vascular and regional organ invasion, multifocality, decreased capsule formation, stem-cell features verification and increased GGT as well as CA19-9 and CEA levels. In case of inoperable or recurrent disease, combinations of cholangiocarcinoma-directed systemic agents display superior results over sorafenib. Liver-directed methods, such as transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), percutaneous ethanol injection (PEI), hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC), radioembolization and ablative therapies, demonstrate inferior efficacy than in cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) due to CHC's common hypovascularity.

CONCLUSIONS

CHC demonstrates an overlapping clinical and biological pattern between its malignant ingredients. Natural history of the disease seems to be determined by the predominant tumor element. Gold standard for diagnosis is histology of surgical specimens. Regarding therapeutic interventions, major hepatectomy is acknowledged as the cornerstone of treatment whereas minor hepatectomy and liver transplantation may be applied in patients with advanced cirrhosis. Despite all therapeutic attempts, prognosis of CHC remains dismal.

Integrated nomograms to predict overall survival and recurrence-free survival in patients with combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC) after liver resection

The current clinical classification of primary liver cancer is unable to efficiently predict the prognosis of combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC). Accurate satellite nodules (SAT) and microvascular invasion (MVI) prediction in cHCC patients is very important for treatment decision making and prognostic evaluation. The aim of this work was to explore important factors affecting the prognosis of cHCC patients after liver resection and to develop preoperative nomograms to predict SAT and MVI in cHCC patients. The nomogram was developed using the data from 148 patients who underwent liver resection for cHCC patients at our hospital between January 2006 and December 2014. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis, a nomogram integrating all significant independent factors affecting overall survival and recurrence-free survival was constructed to predict the prognosis of cHCC. Next, risk factors for SAT and MVI were evaluated with logistic regression. Blood signatures were established using the LASSO regression, and then, we combined the clinical risk factors and blood signatures of the patients to establish predictive models for SAT and MVI. The C-index of the nomogram for predicting survival was 0.685 (95% CI, 0.638 to 0.732), which was significantly higher than the C-index for other liver cancer classification systems.

Impact of nonspecific death on overall survival in early-stage epithelial ovarian cancer patients

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the impacts of nonovarian cancer-specific death (non-OCSD) and ovarian cancer-specific death (OCSD) on early-stage patients, and to determine which statistical method yielded survival results most similar to real-world situations.

METHODS

Data of patients with early-stage epithelial ovarian cancer from 1988 to 2015 registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database were analyzed. The primary outcome events of epithelial ovarian cancer were OCSD, non-OCSD, or alive. Incidences of non-OCSD and OCSD with different clinicopathological factors, cumulative incidences of non-OCSD and OCSD, and overall survival impact of non-OCSD were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 1606 non-OCSD (8.9%) and 3022 OCSDs (16.8%) were analyzed. Several independent features were associated with non-OCSD, including age (>60 years), radiotherapy, and marital status. In patients with histology (eg, endometrioid or mucinous), well-differentiated cells, stage I disease, or widowed marital status, as well as age older than 60, non-OCSD rates of all causes of death notably distorted overall survival, resulting in inaccurate and biased interpretations.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall survival was greatly influenced by non-OCSD in early epithelial ovarian cancer. Future clinical trials should consider non-OCSD as a competing risk event, especially among patients older than 60 years and those with well-differentiated cells, no chemotherapy, and widowed marital status.

The clinicopathological features of combined primary hepatic adenosquamous-hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To explore the pathological features of combined primary hepatic adenosquamous carcinoma (ASC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

The clinicopathological data of one case of cASC-HCC was collected, and the features were analyzed through a literature review.

RESULTS

The male patient was 59 years old and had suffered from inconsistent, upper abdominal pain without any obvious cause for one year. MRI and B-Mode ultrasound images of the upper abdomen showed abnormal signals in the posterior segment of the right lobe of the liver, measuring 12.2 × 7.7 cm. A right hepatectomy was performed. A gross examination revealed an irregular, gray-white infiltrating growing mass, with a partially grayish-yellow area. The histological morphology and immunohistochemical results showed that the tumor was composed of ASC in the gray-white area, accounting for about 80%, and HCC in the grayish yellow area, accounting for about 20%.

CONCLUSION

cASC-HCC is a rare, malignant tumor with high rates of recurrence and metastasis. It mainly occurs in the right lobe of the liver, especially in older men with a history of hepatitis or intrahepatic cholangiolithiasis. Surgery is the main treatment method.

Nomograms to predict 2-year overall survival and advanced schistosomiasis-specific survival after discharge: a competing risk analysis

Background

The prognosis of patients with advanced schistosomiasis is poor. Pre-existing prognosis studies did not differentiate the causes of the deaths. The objectives were to evaluate the 2-year overall survival (OS) and advanced schistosomiasis-specific survival (ASS) in patients with advanced schistosomiasis after discharge through competing risk analysis and to build predictive nomograms.

Methods

Data was extracted from a previously constructed database from Hubei province. Patients were enrolled from September 2014 to January 2015, with follow up to January 2017. OS and ASS were primary outcome measures. Nomograms for estimating 2-year OS and ASS rates after discharge were established based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression model and Fine and Gray’s model. Their predictive performances were evaluated using C-index and validated in both internal and external validation cohorts.

Results

The training cohort included 1487 patients with advanced schistosomiasis. Two-year mortality rate of the training cohort was 8.27% (123/1487). Competing events accounted for 26.83% (33/123). Older age, splemomegaly clinical classification, abnormal serum DBil, AST, ALP and positive HBsAg were significantly associated with 2-year OS. Older age, splemomegaly clinical classification, abnormal serum AST, ALP and positive HBsAg were significantly associated with 2-year ASS. The established nomograms were well calibrated, and had good discriminative ability, with a C-index of 0.813 (95% CI 0.803–0.823) for 2-year OS prediction and 0.834 (95% CI 0.824–0.844) for 2-year ASS prediction. Their predictive performances were well validated in both internal and external validation cohorts.

Conclusion

The effective predictors of 2-year OS and ASS were discovered through competing risk analysis. The nomograms could be used as convenient predictive tools in clinical practice to guide follow-up and aid accurate prognostic assessment.

Score for the Overall Survival Probability of Patients With Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma of the Body and Tail After Surgery: A Novel Nomogram-Based Risk Assessment

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma of the body and tail often has a dismal prognosis and lacks a specific prognostic stage. The aim of this study was to construct a nomogram for predicting survival of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma of the body and tail after surgery. Data of patients were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and from medical records of Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC). In a multivariate analysis for overall survival (OS), the following six variables were identified as independent predictors and incorporated into the nomogram: age, tumor differentiation, tumor size, lymph node ratio (LNR), and chemotherapy. A nomogram was built based on independent risk predictors. The concordance index (C-index) for nomogram, Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) 7th and 8th stage system were 0.775 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.731–0.819], 0.617 (95%CI, 0.575–0.659), and 0.632 (95%CI, 0.588–0.676), respectively. The calibrated nomogram predicted survival rates which closely corresponded to the actual survival rates. Furthermore, the values of the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC) of the nomograms were higher than those of the TNM 7th or 8th stage system in predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival of patients in training and external validation cohorts. The well-calibrated nomogram could be used to predict prognosis for patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma of the body and tail after surgery.