Growth rates of malignant and benign thyroid nodules in an ultrasound follow-up study: a retrospective cohort study

Cost-Effectiveness of the ACR TIRADS Compared to the ATA 2015 Risk Stratification Systems in the Evaluation of Incidental Thyroid Nodules

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

Thyroid nodules are a common incidental imaging finding and prone to overdiagnosis. Several risk stratification systems have been developed to reduce unnecessary work-up, with two of the most utilized including the American Thyroid Association 2015 (ATA2015) and the newer American College of Radiology Thyroid Imaging, Reporting and Data System (TIRADS) guidelines. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the ATA2015 versus the TIRADS guidelines in the management of incidental thyroid nodules.

METHODS

A cost-utility analysis was conducted using decision tree modeling, evaluating adult patients with incidental thyroid nodules < 4 cm. Model inputs were populated using published literature, observational data, and expert opinion. Single-payer perspective, Canadian dollar currency, five-year time horizon, willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of $50,000, and discount rate of 1.5% per annum were utilized. Scenario, deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) expressed as incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.

RESULTS

For the base case scenario, TIRADS dominated the ATA2015 strategy by a slim margin, producing 0.005 more QALYs at $25 less cost. Results were sensitive to the malignancy rate of biopsy and the utilities of a patient with a benign nodule/subclinical malignancy or under surveillance. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that TIRADS was the more cost-effective option 79.7% of the time.

CONCLUSION

The TIRADS guidelines may be the more cost-effective strategy by a small margin compared to ATA2015 in most scenarios when used to risk stratify incidental thyroid nodules.

Diagnostic performance rates of the ACR-TIRADS and EU-TIRADS based on histopathological evidence

PURPOSE

In this study, we aimed to assess the effectiveness of malignancy stratification algorithms of the American College of Radiology (ACR) and European Thyroid Association (ETA) in the delineation of thyroid nodules using a database of nodules that were unequivocally diagnosed by means of histopathological examination and meticulously matched with the imaged nodules.

METHODS

A total of 165 patients having 251 thyroid nodules with histopathologically proven definitive diagnoses during a 5-year period were included in this study. All patients had preoperatively undergone ultrasonography (US) examination, and US characteristics of the thyroid nodules were retrospectively analyzed and assigned in compliance with the thyroid imaging reporting and data system categories recommended by the ACR (ACR-TIRADS) and ETA (EU-TIRADS). The diagnostic effectiveness in the delineation of thyroid nodules and unnecessary fine-needle aspiration (FNAB) rates were evaluated.

RESULTS

Overall, 189 nodules (75.30%) were diagnosed as benign, while 62 nodules (24.70%) were reported to be malignant based on histopathological assessment. Sensitivity and specificity rates were 71% and 75% for ACR-TIRADS and 73% and 80% for EU-TIRADS. The area under the curve values were 0.78 and 0.80 for ACR-TIRADS and EU-TIRADS, respectively. The unnecessary FNAB rates were 61% for ACR-TIRADS and 64% for EU-TIRADS as per the recommended criteria of each algorithm.

CONCLUSION

The diagnostic performance of both malignancy stratification systems was signified to be moderate and sufficient in a cohort of nodules with definite histopathological diagnosis. In light of our results, we demonstrated the strengths and weaknesses of the ACR- and EU-TIRADS for physicians who should be familiar with them for optimal management of thyroid nodules.

Ultrasound Parameters of Thyroid Nodules and the Risk of Malignancy: A Retrospective Analysis

Ultrasonography-guided fine-needle aspiration biopsy is the common choice for diagnosis of the suspected thyroid nodule. An algorithm(s) that finds the malignant potential of a nodule preoperatively, to overcome unnecessary diagnostic methods, does not exist. The objective of the study was to correlate thyroid nodule sizes measured by ultrasonography and risk of malignancy assessed by cytologic and histologic examinations. Data regarding fine-needle aspiration cytology and the results of histologic examinations of surgical specimens of 260 nodules were collected and analyzed. The macro or multiple calcifications, the complex echo pattern, and posterior region homogeneity were considered suspicious in ultrasonography. Bethesda system for classification of thyroid nodules was used for cytopathology. Histopathology performed as per the 2004 World Health Organization classification system. The benefit score analysis was performed for determination of clinical usefulness. Twenty-eight of 49 malignant nodules and 46 of 68 malignant nodules detected through ultrasound following fine-needle aspiration cytopathology and histopathology were <2 cm in size. A correlation was found for malignancy rate detected by ultrasonography-guided fine-needle aspiration cytology and those of the surgical specimen (r = 0.945, P = .015, R² = 0.894). Ultrasonography-guided fine-needle aspiration cytology had 0.994 sensitivities, 0.721 accuracies, and 0.08 to 0.945 diagnostic confidence for the detection of malignant nodules. Nodule size less than 2 mm (P = .011) was associated with the malignancy potential of thyroid nodules. Ultrasonography-guided fine-needle aspiration cytology had 19 (7%) results as a false negative and 1 (1%) results were false positive. Ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration cytopathology reported oversize of thyroid nodule than original but can predict the risk of malignancy. Level of Evidence: III.