Nomograms to predict individual prognosis of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder

Prognostic Nomogram, Demographics and Comparative Analysis of Urinary Bladder Small Cell and Large Cell Neuroendocrine Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

This retrospective study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the demographics, survival rates, and therapeutic approaches of small-cell neuroendocrine carcinoma (SCNEC) and large-cell neuroendocrine carcinoma (LCNEC) while highlighting key differences compared to common urinary bladder cancers.

METHODS

Our analysis utilized the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (SEER), and data was collected from 2000-2020.

RESULTS

A total of 1040 cases of urinary bladder SCNEC and LCNEC were identified. Most patients were over the age of 80 years (33.2%), male (78.9%), and Caucasian (83.6%). Most tumors were over 4.1cm (47.4%) and in the lateral wall of the bladder (37.8%). The overall 5-year survival was 22.1% (95% confidence interval (95% CI):20.7-23.5). The 5-year survival by sex was greatest for the female population (28.0%; (95% CI: 24.5-35.0). For treatment modality, the 5-year survival for each was as follows: surgery, 12.5% (95% CI: 10.5-14.5) multimodality therapy (surgery and chemotherapy), 31.1% (95% CI: 28.5-33.7) and combination (surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation) 32.8% (95% CI: 29.1-36.5). On multivariable analysis, positive nodal status hazar ratio (HR)(HR3.65 [95% CI: 2.34-5.71], P < .001) was identified as a negative predictor for survival, and increasing age was nearly significant for a worse prognosis (P = .052). The prognostic nomogram that was created to predict patient survivability mirrored the findings from the statistical analysis, with a statistically significant difference found in race, treatment modality, and tumor stage.

CONCLUSIONS

SCNEC and LCNEC are rare yet highly intrusive subtypes of bladder cancer that usually affect Caucasian males over the age of 80 years old. The study identifies older age and positive nodal status as adverse prognostic indicators. Our findings offer crucial insights that can inform future clinical guidelines and serve as a basis for more tailored treatment strategies for these aggressive subtypes of bladder cancer.

International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) Consensus Conference on Current Issues in Bladder Cancer. Working Group 2: Grading of Mixed Grade, Invasive Urothelial Carcinoma Including Histologic Subtypes and Divergent Differentiations, and Non-Urothelial Carcinomas

The 2022 International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) Consensus Conference on Urinary Bladder Cancer Working Group 2 was tasked to provide evidence-based proposals on the applications of grading in noninvasive urothelial carcinoma with mixed grades, invasive urothelial carcinoma including subtypes (variants) and divergent differentiations, and in pure non-urothelial carcinomas. Studies suggested that predominantly low-grade noninvasive papillary urothelial carcinoma with focal high-grade component has intermediate outcome between low- and high-grade tumors. However, no consensus was reached on how to define a focal high-grade component. By 2004 WHO grading, the vast majority of lamina propria-invasive (T1) urothelial carcinomas are high-grade, and the rare invasive low-grade tumors show only limited superficial invasion. While by 1973 WHO grading, the vast majority of T1 urothelial carcinomas are G2 and G3 and show significant differences in outcome based on tumor grade. No consensus was reached if T1 tumors should be graded either by the 2004 WHO system or by the 1973 WHO system. Because of the concern for underdiagnosis and underreporting with potential undertreatment, participants unanimously recommended that the presence of urothelial carcinoma subtypes and divergent differentiations should be reported. There was consensus that the extent of these subtypes and divergent differentiations should also be documented in biopsy, transurethral resection, and cystectomy specimens. Any distinct subtype and divergent differentiation should be diagnosed without a threshold cutoff, and each type should be enumerated in tumors with combined morphologies. The participants agreed that all subtypes and divergent differentiations should be considered high-grade according to the 2004 WHO grading system. However, participants strongly acknowledged that subtypes and divergent differentiations should not be considered as a homogenous group in terms of behavior. Thus, future studies should focus on individual subtypes and divergent differentiations rather than lumping these different entities into a single clinicopathological group. Likewise, clinical recommendations should pay attention to the potential heterogeneity of subtypes and divergent differentiations in terms of behavior and response to therapy. There was consensus that invasive pure squamous cell carcinoma and pure adenocarcinoma of the bladder should be graded according to the degree of differentiation. In conclusion, this summary of the International Society of Urological Pathology Working Group 2 proceedings addresses some of the issues on grading beyond its traditional application, including for papillary urothelial carcinomas with mixed grades and with invasive components. Reporting of subtypes and divergent differentiation is also addressed in detail, acknowledging their role in risk stratification. This report could serve as a guide for best practices and may advise future research and proposals on the prognostication of these tumors.

Nomogram to predict overall survival in patients with primary bladder neuroendocrine carcinoma: a population-based study

Aim: To develop a prognostic model to predict the overall survival of primary bladder neuroendocrine carcinoma (BNEC) patients. Methods: Using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, a nomogram was constructed. Calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic curves and C-index were utilized to evaluate the performance. Results: The study enrolled 906 BNEC patients. The following variables were incorporated in the nomogram: age, marital status, Tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage, chemotherapy and surgery. The nomogram had a C-index of 0.702 in the training cohort and 0.724 in the validation cohort. Conclusion: Compared with the TNM staging system, the proposed nomogram exhibits superior prognostic discrimination and survival prediction.

Nonbilharzial Squamous Cell Bladder Cancer: An Indian Experience

Anand RajaBackground  Squamous cell carcinoma represents the second most common histological type of bladder cancer. Nonbilharzial squamous cell carcinomas of bladder are rare histological variant with limited experience. Objective  We aimed to review our experience to determine various treatment patterns and survival outcomes for this malignancy. Methods  Data from patients treated at our center from 1995 to 2016 was collected from patient records and analyzed. Clinicopathological variables, treatment patterns, and follow-up data were extracted. Results  A total of 32 patients were included in the study with a median age of 55.5 years. Hematuria was the most common presentation. Overall, 16 patients underwent radical cystectomy, 8 underwent definitive radiotherapy (RT), 4 received palliative RT, and 4 patients defaulted for any treatment. Surgery conferred better survival rates as compared with RT (31.9 vs. 7.45 months). In the surgical group, only pathological TNM staging was a significant prognostic factor. Conclusion  In localized nonbilharzial squamous cell bladder cancer, radical cystectomy with bilateral pelvic node dissection appears to be treatment modality of choice. Larger series are needed to validate the role of other perioperative modalities.

Construction of a novel mRNA-signature prediction model for prognosis of bladder cancer based on a statistical analysis

Background

Bladder cancer (BC) is a common malignancy neoplasm diagnosed in advanced stages in most cases. It is crucial to screen ideal biomarkers and construct a more accurate prognostic model than conventional clinical parameters. The aim of this research was to develop and validate an mRNA-based signature for predicting the prognosis of patients with bladder cancer.

Methods

The RNA-seq data was downloaded from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were screened in three datasets, and prognostic genes were identified from the training set of TCGA dataset. The common genes between DEGs and prognostic genes were narrowed down to six genes via Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression, and stepwise multivariate Cox regression. Then the gene-based risk score was calculated via Cox coefficient. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival analysis were used to assess the prognostic power of risk score. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was applied to construct a nomogram. Decision curve analysis (DCA), calibration curves, and time-dependent ROC were performed to assess the nomogram. Finally, functional enrichment of candidate genes was conducted to explore the potential biological pathways of candidate genes.

Results

SORBS2, GPC2, SETBP1, FGF11, APOL1, and H1–2 were screened to be correlated with the prognosis of BC patients. A nomogram was constructed based on the risk score, pathological stage, and age. Then, the calibration plots for the 1-, 3-, 5-year OS were predicted well in entire TCGA-BLCA patients. Decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated that the clinical value of the nomogram was higher than the stage model and TNM model in predicting overall survival analysis. The time-dependent ROC curves indicated that the nomogram had higher predictive accuracy than the stage model and risk score model. The AUC of nomogram time-dependent ROC was 0.763, 0.805, and 0.806 for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year, respectively. Functional enrichment analysis of candidate genes suggested several pathways and mechanisms related to cancer.

Conclusions

In this research, we developed an mRNA-based signature that incorporated clinical prognostic parameters to predict BC patient prognosis well, which may provide a novel prognosis assessment tool for clinical practice and explore several potential novel biomarkers related to the prognosis of patients with BC.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08611-z.

A prognostic nomogram for women with primary ovarian signet-ring cell carcinoma

Background

Primary ovarian signet-ring cell carcinoma (POSRCC) is a rare subtype of ovarian carcinoma that is characterized by abundant mucin accumulation. POSRCC is aggressive, and the prognostic factors associated with its clinical outcome remain poorly defined. This study aimed to elucidate the clinical characteristics and survival of patients with POSRCC, and to establish an effective prognostic nomogram and risk stratification model to predict the risks associated with patient outcomes.

Methods

Data of patients with POSRCC from the period 1975 to 2016 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariable and multivariable analyses of demographic factors, clinicopathological characteristics, and treatments were conducted to identify significant prognostic parameters. The identified independent variables were integrated to develop a nomogram and risk stratification model. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were assessed with the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and calibration curves.

Results

A total of 172 patients were identified as being eligible to participate in this study. The median overall survival (OS) time was 7 months [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.6-9.4 months]. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 35.5%, 15.3%, and 6%, respectively. A multivariable analysis of the primary patients identified the independent predictors for survival as age at diagnosis, race, marital status, T (primary tumor size) stage, and chemotherapy, which were all incorporated into the nomogram. The C-index was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.66-0.75), which was statistically higher than that of the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system (0.58; 95% CI, 0.53-0.63). ROC curve analysis also showed that the nomogram had good discrimination, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.74, 0.62, and 0.71 for 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival, respectively. The calibration curves showed good agreement between the prediction by the nomogram and actual observations. A risk stratification model was further used to classify patients into a low-risk or high-risk group. The median OS time for the low- and high-risk groups was 13.0 months (95% CI, 9.33-16.67) and 2.0 months (95% CI, 1.12-2.89), respectively. Surgery did not significantly prolong survival in either group [low-risk group: hazard ratio (HR), 0.69; 95% CI, 0.45-1.07; P=0.09; high-risk group: HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.46-0.67; P=0.18].

Conclusions

The proposed nomogram and risk stratification model showed accurate prognostic prediction for POSRCC. These methods could improve individualized evaluations of survival and therapeutic decisions for patients with POSRCC.

Marital Status and Prognostic Nomogram for Bladder Cancer With Distant Metastasis: A SEER-Based Study

Background

To investigate the impact of marital status on overall survival (OS) and create a prognostic nomogram predicting OS in distant-metastatic bladder cancer (DMBC) patients.

Methods

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was explored to recruit DMBC patients from 2010 to 2015. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was used to compare survival differences among different marital status. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to screen for prognostic factors and then constructed the nomogram based on Cox proportional hazard regression models. Calibration plot diagrams and concordance index (C-index) were used to verify the prognostic nomogram.

Results

Kaplan–Meier curves suggested the significant differences of OS among different marital status existed in total (P < 0.001), female (P = 0.011) and male (P = 0.001) DMBC patients, respectively. Multivariate analysis indicated marital status was an independent prognostic factor for OS of DMBC patients. Nomogram showed the contribution of marital status to predicting OS was small. Other independent prognostic factors included age, grade, histology type, surgery of primary site, chemotherapy, and metastasis pattern. By combining seven factors, we constructed a prognostic nomogram for DMBC patients. The C-index of this nomogram for OS prediction was 0.722 (95% CI 0.712–0.732). The calibration curves showed perfect consistency between observed and predictive survival.

Conclusions

Marital status was an independent prognostic factor for OS of DMBC patients, but its contribution to predicting OS was small. The prognostic nomogram will provide an individualized evaluation of OS and guidance for suitable treatments in DMBC patients.

Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomograms to Predict Overall and Cancer-Specific Survival for Patients with Adenocarcinoma of the Urinary Bladder: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUNDS

Adenocarcinoma of the bladder (ACB) rarely occurs but is associated with poor outcome. We aim to establish reliable nomograms for estimating cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) of ACB patients.

METHODS

ACB patients were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2004-2015). A total of 1,149 patients were randomly divided into training cohort (n = 692) and validation cohort (n = 457). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were employed to identify independent prognostic factors. Nomograms predicting OS and CSS were constructed utilizing screened factors. The performance of nomograms was internally and externally validated by calibration curves, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, concordance index (C-index), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

OS nomogram incorporated age, race, histologic grade, American Joint Committee of Cancer (AJCC) stage, metastasis, surgery, chemotherapy, and tumor size. The C-indices were 0.754 (95% CI: 0.732-0.775) for training set and 0.743 (95% CI: 0.712-0.767) for validation set. Meanwhile, the calibration plots for 3- and 5-year OS displayed fine concordance between actual and predicted outcomes. In addition, higher areas under the curve (AUCs) were seen in training cohort (3-year: 0.799 vs. 0.630; 5-year: 0.797 vs. 0.648) and validation cohort (3-year: 0.802 vs. 0.662; 5-year: 0.752 vs. 0.660). Finally, DCA curves of the nomograms exhibited larger net benefits than AJCC stage. CSS nomogram showed similar results.

CONCLUSION

Our study constructed and validated nomograms with improved discriminative abilities and clinical benefits to predict the survival outcomes of ACB patients. The models might assist clinicians in optimizing therapeutic management on individual levels.

Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Bladder Is Not Associated With High-risk HPV

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the clinical features, pathologic features, and prevalence of human papilloma virus (HPV) in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the bladder. SCC of the bladder is known to be associated with conditions that cause chronic inflammation/irritation. The literature is inconsistent regarding the association of HPV with pure SCC of the bladder.

METHODS

A multi-institutional study identified cases of SCC of the bladder. Pure squamous histology and the absence of urothelial carcinoma in situ were required for inclusion. Clinical and pathologic features were collected, and tissues were evaluated for high-risk HPV using p16 immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridization.

RESULTS

We identified 207 cases of SCC of the bladder. Risk factors for bladder cancer included smoking (133/207, 64%) and chronic bladder irritation (83/207, 40%). The majority (155/207, 75%) of patients had > pT2 disease. Mean tumor size was 5.6 ± 3.0 cm and 36/207 (17%) patients had lymph node positive disease. p16 immunohistochemistry was positive in 52/204 (25%) cases but high-risk HPV was identified with in situ hybridization in only 1 (0.5%) case. Tumor size, stage, number of lymph nodes removed, number of positive lymph nodes, lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion, and positive margins each were associated with cancer-specific mortality when adjusted for demographic factors. A multivariate analysis of variable importance further revealed sex and race as important factors in predicting cancer-specific mortality.

CONCLUSION

SCC of the bladder is an aggressive histologic subtype. Although bladder SCC can express p16, it is not typically associated with high-risk HPV, although rare cases can occur.