Prognostic impact of tumor length in esophageal Cancer: a systematic review and Meta-analysis

Nomogram based on a novel nutritional immune-inflammatory status score to predict postoperative outcomes in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The relationship between patient nutritional, immune, and inflammatory status is linked to tumor progression and prognosis. However, there are limited studies on the prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) after surgery based on the comprehensive indicators of these factors.

AIM

To develop and validate a novel nomogram based on a nutritional immune-inflammatory status (NIIS) score for predicting postoperative outcomes in ESCC.

METHODS

This retrospective study examined 829 patients with ESCC who underwent radical surgery between June 2016 and June 2020, with 568 patients in the training cohort and 261 patients in the validation cohort. We incorporated comprehensive indicators related to nutrition, immunity, and inflammation to develop the NIIS score, using LASSO regression. Subsequently, a nomogram combining the NIIS score and other clinicopathological parameters was developed and validated using calibration curves, time-dependent area under curves, and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

We identified eight indicators that constitute the NIIS score. High-risk scores emerged as an independent risk factor for overall survival [training set HR 2.497 (1.802, 3.458), P < 0.001]. A NIIS nomogram for personalized prognostic prediction was developed by integrating the NIIS score with clinicopathological variables, yielding enhanced predictive value relative to individual indicators and the UICC/TNM staging system.

CONCLUSION

The NIIS score provides strong predictive value for postoperative outcomes in ESCC, thus offering a valuable tool for clinical decision-making.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for esophageal cancer patients based on SEER Asian population

This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) in Asian patients with Esophageal Cancer (EC). Data from Asian EC patients were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression was used for initial variable selection, followed by multivariate Cox regression analysis to identify independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was subsequently constructed based on these factors. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves, while the clinical utility of the nomogram was assessed through decision curve analysis (DCA). The LASSO regression and multivariate Cox regression analysis identified age, sex, marital status, tumor size, M stage, surgery, and chemotherapy as independent prognostic factors. The ROC curve results demonstrated that the area under the curve (AUC) values for predicting 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS in the training cohort were 0.770, 0.756, and 0.783, respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUC values were 0.814, 0.763, and 0.771, respectively. Calibration curves indicated a high concordance between predicted and actual OS. The DCA demonstrated that the nomogram has significant clinical applicability. This nomogram provides reliable predictions and valuable guidance for personalized survival estimates and high-risk patient identification.

A computed tomography-based nomogram for neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus immunotherapy response prediction in patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Objective

To develop a CT-based nomogram to predict the response of advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus immunotherapy.

Methods

In this retrospective study, 158 consecutive patients with advanced ESCC receiving contrast-enhanced CT before neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus immunotherapy were randomized to a training cohort (TC, n = 121) and a validation cohort (VC, n = 37). Response to treatment was assessed with response evaluation criteria in solid tumors. Patients in the TC were divided into the responder (n = 69) and non-responder (n = 52) groups. For the TC, univariate analyses were performed to confirm factors associated with response prediction, and binary analyses were performed to identify independent variables to develop a nomogram. In both the TC and VC, the nomogram performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration slope, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

In the TC, univariate analysis showed that cT stage, cN stage, gross tumor volume, gross volume of all enlarged lymph nodes, and tumor length were associated with the response (all P < 0.05). Binary analysis demonstrated that cT stage, cN stage, and tumor length were independent predictors. The independent factors were imported into the R software to construct a nomogram, showing the discriminatory ability with an AUC of 0.813 (95% confidence interval: 0.735-0.890), and the calibration curve and DCA showed that the predictive ability of the nomogram was in good agreement with the actual observation.

Conclusion

This study provides an accurate nomogram to predict the response of advanced ESCC to neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus immunotherapy.

Analysis of the influencing factors in the long-term survival of esophageal cancer

Background

To analyze the prognosis and diagnostic value of relevant hematological indexes on the survival status of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after radical surgery.

Methods

This study included 206 patients with esophageal cancer who underwent surgical R0 resection. The data, including the basic information, preoperative blood routine, albumin, fibrinogen, surgery-related information, postoperative pathology, and overall survival, of the patients were compared.

Results

The survival and death groups showed a significant difference in overall survival (OS), the degree of differentiation, depth of infiltration, pathological stage, vascular infiltration, nerve infiltration, fibrinogen, white blood cell, neutrophils, platelet, and platelet hematocrit (P<0.05). Tumor located in the middle thorax, larger lesion length, deeper invasion, later pathological stage, vascular infiltration, nerve infiltration, lymph node metastasis, cardiovascular disease, and higher smoking grade were risk factors for poor prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) (P<0.05). Cardiovascular disease, lower differentiation, tumor located in the middle thorax, and nerve infiltration were independent risk factors for the reduction of survival time of patients with ESCC (P<0.05).

Conclusions

History of cardiovascular disease, tumor located in the middle chest, poorly differentiated esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, visible nerve cancer invasion, hematocrit (HCT), mean erythrocyte hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), and hemoglobin (HB) are independent risk factors for the long-term survival of patients with ESCC.

The Impact of Economic Status on Cause-Specific Survival in Patients with Esophageal Adenocarcinoma in the United States: A Retrospective Analysis

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to evaluate the impact of economic status on the cause-specific survival (CSS) of patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC).

METHODS

Using propensity score matching (PSM), we analyzed data from 4676 patients with EAC, categorized into low household income (LHI) and high household income (HHI), sourced from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Significant pre-PSM differences in age, gender, race, and tumor stage (T stage) were observed, necessitating PSM adjustment. The PSM incorporated these variables along with radiotherapy to balance the groups effectively. Kaplan-Meier curves and accelerated failure time (AFT) and random survival forest (RSF) models were used to assess the prognostic impacts.

RESULTS

According to the pre-PSM data, a significant difference in CSS was observed between the LHI and HHI groups (median CSS = 1.25 years vs 1.50 years, P < .05). Post-PSM analysis maintained the result (P < .05). Using the AFT model, HHI was found to significantly enhance CSS (pre-PSM time ratio [TR] = 1.145, post-PSM TR = 1.146). Male gender (pre-PSM TR = 0.762, post-PSM TR = 0.819) and certain non-single marital statuses (such as divorced, pre- and post-TRs <1.000) are also prognostic risk factors for EAC (P values <.05). Additional significant prognostic risk factors for EAC included advanced American Joint Committee on Cancer stages (III and IV), higher tumor stages (T3 and T4), higher node stages (N1-N3), without surgery, and without chemotherapy, as identified using the AFT and/or RSF mothods. The results derived from the RSF model are consistent with those of the AFT model.

CONCLUSION

Higher economic status is positively related to EAC CSS. Beyond standard clinical treatments, interventions such as enhancing socioeconomic support and preventive aspects, including intensive health education and EAC screening, could play a crucial role in improving EAC prognosis.

Predicting response to CCRT for esophageal squamous carcinoma by a radiomics-clinical SHAP model

BACKGROUND

Radical concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) is frequently used as the first-line treatment for patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer. Unfortunately, some patients respond poorly. To predict response to radical concurrent chemoradiotherapy in pre-treatment patients with esophageal squamous carcinoma (ESCC), and compare the predicting efficacies of radiomics features of primary tumor with or without regional lymph nodes, we developed a radiomics-clinical model based on the positioning CT images. Finally, SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) was used to explain the models.

METHODS

This retrospective study enrolled 105 patients with medically inoperable and/or unresectable ESCC who underwent radical concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) between October 2018 and May 2023. Patients were classified into responder and non-responder groups with RECIST standards. The 11 recently admitted patients were chosen as the validation set, previously admitted patients were randomly split into the training set (n = 70) and the testing set (n = 24). Primary tumor site (GTV), the primary tumor and the uninvolved lymph nodes at risk of microscopic disease (CTV) were identified as Regions of Interests (ROIs). 1762 radiomics features from GTV and CTV were respectively extracted and then filtered by statistical differential analysis and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO). The filtered radiomics features combined with 13 clinical features were further filtered with Mutual Information (MI) algorithm. Based on the filtered features, we developed five models (Clinical Model, GTV Model, GTV-Clinical Model, CTV Model, and CTV-Clinical Model) using the random forest algorithm and evaluated for their accuracy, precision, recall, F1-Score and AUC. Finally, SHAP algorithm was adopted for model interpretation to achieve transparency and utilizability.

RESULTS

The GTV-Clinical model achieves an AUC of 0.82 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 0.76-0.99 on testing set and an AUC of 0.97 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 0.84-1.0 on validation set, which are significantly higher than those of other models in predicting ESCC response to CCRT. The SHAP force map provides an integrated view of the impact of each feature on individual patients, while the SHAP summary plots indicate that radiomics features have a greater influence on model prediction than clinical factors in our model.

CONCLUSION

GTV-Clinical model based on texture features and the maximum diameter of lesion (MDL) may assist clinicians in pre-treatment predicting ESCC response to CCRT.

miR-1301-3p promotes invasion and migration and EMT progression in esophageal cancer by downregulating NBL1 expression

BACKGROUND

Esophageal cancer (ESCA) is one of the most aggressive and lethal human malignant cancers. MicroRNA-1301-3p (miR-1301-3p) plays vital roles in a majority of malignancies. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of miR-1301-3p/NBL1 axis on ESCA cell invasion, migration, epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) process, as well as its association with prognosis of ESCA patients.

METHODS

The expression levels of miR-1301-3p and NBL1 were predicted by bioinformatics and further verified by RT-qPCR assays. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) plotter analysis and univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to evaluate the relationship between miR-1301-3p and clinicopathological variables and prognosis. The role of miR-1301-3p on cell invasion, migration was detected by transwell invasion, and wound healing assays, respectively. The EMT-related proteins were detected by western blot. The target genes and the target binding sites were predicted by bioinformatics and further determined by RT-qPCR assay.

RESULTS

MiR-1301-3p was remarkably upregulated in ESCA tissues and cells, and its high expression was associated with poor prognosis of ESCA. Overexpression of miR-1301-3p promoted ESCA cell invasion, migration and mediated EMT process in vitro, whereas knockdown of miR-1301-3p showed the opposite effects. Moreover, NBL1 was predicted as a target gene of miR-1301-3p. NBL1 was lowly expressed in ESCA cells and significantly decreased after upregulation of miR-1301-3p. Meanwhile, we found that low expression of NBL1 was significantly associated with poor prognosis of ESCA patients.

CONCLUSION

MiR-1301-3p is a potential biomarker for predicting the prognosis of ESCA patients. It may promote ESCA invasion, migration and EMT progression by regulating NBL1 expression.

EUS-derived maximum tumor thickness and tumor shrinkage rate as independent prognostic factors in locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

Background and Objectives

EUS-derived maximum tumor thickness (MTT) pre- and post-neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (LA-ESCC) indicates treatment response. However, the accuracy of predicting long-term survival remains uncertain. This study aimed to investigate the association between EUS-derived MTT pre- and post-NCRT and tumor shrinkage rate as well as long-term survival in patients with LA-ESCC receiving NCRT.

Methods

We retrospectively enrolled patients with LA-ESCC who underwent EUS examination from 2017 to 2021. Tumor shrinkage rate was the ratio of the difference between pre- and post-MTT to pre-MTT. The most fitted cutoff values were determined by the receiver operating characteristic curve. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to calculate overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival. Data from another center were also used for external validation testing.

Results

Two hundred thirty patients were enrolled. Of the patients, 178 completed the first EUS pre-NCRT and obtained pre-MTT, 200 completed the reexamined EUS post-NCRT and obtained post-MTT, and 148 completed both EUS and achieved tumor shrinkage. For all the patients, the 1- and 3-year OS rates were 93.9% and 67.9%, and progression-free survival rates were 77.7% and 54.1%, respectively. The median follow-up period was 30.6 months. Thinner post-MTT (≤8.8 mm) and EUS responder (tumor shrinkage rate ≥52%) were independently associated with better OS.

Conclusions

EUS-derived MTT and tumor shrinkage post-NCRT are independent prognostic factors for long-term survival and may be an alternative method for evaluating tumor response in patients with LA-ESCC after NCRT.

Association of survival with adjuvant radiotherapy for pN0 esophageal cancer

INTRODUCTION

This study was conducted to elucidate the link between adjuvant radiotherapy and survival in pathologic node-negative (pN0) esophageal cancer patients with upfront esophagectomy.

METHODS

From 2000 to 2016, patients with pN0 esophageal cancer who underwent upfront esophagectomy were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The association of high-risk covariates with survival after adjuvant radiotherapy was evaluated using propensity score matching and multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 3197 patients, 321 (10.0%) underwent postoperative radiotherapy and 2876 (90.0%) underwent esophagectomy alone. In the unmatched cohort, postoperative radiotherapy was associated with a statistically significant but modest absolute decrease in survival outcomes (P < 0.001). In the matched cohort, the survival differences disappeared. Additionally, adjuvant radiotherapy was linked to a 5-year overall survival (OS) benefit for patients with the pT3-4N0 disease (34.8% vs. 27.7%; P = 0.008). Adjuvant radiotherapy for pT3-4N0 disease with tumor length ≥3 cm, adenocarcinoma, and evaluated lymph node count <12 was shown to independently function as a risk factor for improved OS, as per a multivariate analysis (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

This population-based trial showed that high-risk patients with pT3-4N0 esophageal cancer had better OS following upfront esophagectomy followed by radiotherapy therapy. This discovery may have major significance in the use of adjuvant radiotherapy following upfront esophagectomy in patients with pN0 esophageal cancer.

Prognostic significance of tumor regression grade in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after neoadjuvant chemoradiation

Backgrounds

Trimodal therapy (neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by esophagectomy) for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is associated with a significant survival benefit. Modified Ryan score is an effective tool to evaluated the tumor regression grade (TRG) after neoadjuvant therapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of TRG for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in ESCC patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiation.

Methods

The study retrospectively reviewed 523 ESCC patients who underwent neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and radical esophagectomy at Jinling Hospital from January 2014 to July 2020. Kaplan-Meier curves with log-rank test and Cox regression model were used to evaluate the prognostic factor of TRG based on modified Ryan scoring system on OS and DFS.

Results

After application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, 494 patients with ESCC following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and radical esophagectomy were available for analysis. The TRG scores are significantly associated with smoke history (p = 0.02), lymphovascular invasion (LVI) and/or peripheral nerve invasion (PNI) (p < 0.01), and postoperative adjuvant therapy (p < 0.01). Meanwhile, tumor characteristics including tumor length (p < 0.01) and tumor differentiation grade (p < 0.01) are also significantly associated with TRG score. The results of multivariable Cox regression modal showed that TRG is not an independently prognostic factor for OS (p = 0.922) or DFS (p = 0.526) but tumor length is an independently prognostic factor for DFS (p = 0.046).

Conclusions

This study evaluated the prognostic value of modified Ryan scoring system for ESCC after trimodal therapy and concluded that modified Ryan scoring system can predict survival and recurrence rates but is not an independently prognostic factor for OS and DFS.

Construction a new nomogram prognostic model for predicting overall survival after radical resection of esophageal squamous cancer

Background

Esophageal cancer is one of the deadliest malignancies in the world, and 5-year overall survival (OS) of esophageal cancer ranges from 12% to 20%. Surgical resection remains the principal treatment. The American Joint Commission on Cancer (AJCC) TNM (tumor, node, and metastasis) staging system is a key guideline for prognosis and treatment decisions, but it cannot fully predict outcomes. Therefore, targeting the molecular and biological features of each patient's tumor, and identifying key prognostic biomarkers as effective survival predictors and therapeutic targets are highly important to clinicians and patients.

Methods

In this study, three different methods, including Univariate Cox regression, Lasso regression, and Randomforest regression were used to screen the independent factors affecting the prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and construct a nomogram prognostic model. The accuracy of the model was verified by comparing with TNM staging system and the reliability of the model was verified by internal cross validation.

Results

Preoperative neutrophil lymphocyte ratio(preNLR), N-stage, p53 level and tumor diameter were selected to construct the new prognostic model. Patients with higher preNLR level, higher N-stage, lower p53 level and larger tumor diameter had worse OS. The results of C-index, Decision Curve Analysis (DCA), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) showed that the new prognostic model has a better prediction than the TNM staging system.

Conclusion

The accuracy and reliability of the nomogram prognostic model were higher than that of TNM staging system. It can effectively predict individual OS and provide theoretical basis for clinical decision making.

Gross Tumor Volume Predicts Survival and Pathological Complete Response of Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

Background

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (neo-CRT) plus surgery has greatly improved the prognosis of locally advanced esophageal cancer (EC) patients. But which factors may influence the pathological tumor response and long-term survival remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to identify the prognostic biomarkers of locally advanced EC patients receiving neo-CRT.

Methods

We reviewed the data of 72 patients with cT2-4N0-3M0 EC who underwent neo-CRT at our hospital. The patients received intensity-modulated radiation therapy with a total radiation dose of 41.4–60.0 Gy. Most patients received platinum + paclitaxel-based combination regimens every three weeks for 2–4 cycles. The recorded data included age, sex, smoking history, alcohol use, histology, tumor location, clinical TNM stage, tumor length, gross tumor volume (GTV), GTV of primary tumor (GTVp), GTV of lymph nodes (GTVn), radiation dose, and number of chemotherapy cycles. Overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and pathological complete response (pCR) were analyzed.

Results

The 3-year OS and PFS rates of these patients who underwent neo-CRT were 51.14% and 43.28%, respectively. In the univariate analyses, smoking history, clinical stage, GTV, GTVp, and GTVn were significantly associated with OS, whereas alcohol use, GTV, GTVp, and GTVn were significantly associated with PFS. Furthermore, in the multivariate analysis, GTV was an independent prognostic predictor of OS (hazard ratio (HR): 14.14, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.747–53.33, P < 0.0001) and PFS (HR: 6.090, 95% CI: 2.398–15.47, P < 0.0001). In addition, GTV < 60.50 cm³ compared to > 60.50 cm³ was significantly associated with higher pCR rate (59.3% and 27.8%, respectively, P = 0.038). High dose (> 50 Gy) and increased number of chemotherapy cycles (≥ 3) didn’t improve the OS or PFS in patients with GTV > 60.50 cm³.

Conclusion

GTV was an independent prognostic factor of long-term survival in EC patients, which may be because GTV is associated with histological response to neo-CRT. Additionally, patients with GTV > 60.50 cm³ didn’t benefit from increased radiation dose or increased number of chemotherapy cycles.