A risk scoring system to predict the individual incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer

Survival Analysis of Metastatic Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer Compared to Metastatic Average-Onset Colorectal Cancer: A SEER Database Analysis

BACKGROUND

Early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) is defined as colorectal cancer diagnosed before the age of 50 years, and its incidence has been increasing over the last decade, now accounting for 10% of all new CRC diagnoses. Average-onset colorectal cancer (AO-CRC) has shown a steady decline in its incidence and related mortality over the past 20 years. The disparities in outcomes and overall survival (OS) between EO-CRC and AO-CRC are controversial. Our study compared OS and cause-specific survival (CSS) between metastatic EO-CRC (mEO-CRC) and metastatic AO-CRC (mAO-CRC) and identified the associated factors.

METHODS

Data on patient characteristics, tumor characteristics, incidence, and mortality were obtained from the SEER database from 2010 to 2020. We identified 23,278 individuals aged > 18 years with a confirmed diagnosis of all histological subtypes of metastatic CRC (M1 on TNM stage) using ICD-O-3 site codes. mEO-CRC and mAO-CRC were compared. OS distributions and CCS were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test to assess differences. A Cox regression model was used to assess the associations between variables.

RESULTS

mEO-CRC constituted 17.79% of the cases, whereas 82.21% had mAO-CRC. Most patients with mEO-CRC were 45-49 years old (47.66%), male (52.16%) and White (72.57%) and had adenocarcinoma histology (87.30%). Left colon tumors were most prevalent in both groups (40.26%) but were more prevalent in mEO-CRC patients than in mAO-CRC patients (49.63% vs. 38.23%, p < 0.001). Patients with mEO-CRC had higher OS (p < 0.001) and CSS (p < 0.001) than those with mAO-CRC. Patients with mEO-CRC also had significantly better median overall survival (30 months vs. 18 months, p < 0.001). The factors associated with worse OS included mAO-CRC (p < 0.001), mucinous adenocarcinoma (p < 0.001), male sex (p = 0.003), and a lack of surgical intervention (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Most patients with mEO-CRC fall within the range of 45 to 49 years of age. Patients with mEO-CRC were more likely to receive cancer-directed therapy (including chemotherapy and radiotherapy) and had better OS and CSS than those with mAO-CRC. This is likely attributable to the better performance status, fewer comorbidities, and better tolerance to cancer-directed therapy in mEO-CRC patients. The factors associated with worse OS and CSS were age > 50 years, mucinous adenocarcinoma, male sex, and no surgical treatment.

Orbital Apex Metastases From Primary Colorectal Adenocarcinoma: A Rare Cause for Unilateral Vision Loss

Colorectal cancer is one of the most common causes of cancer-related death in the United States. Although it frequently metastasizes to adjacent structures such as the liver, orbital metastases are exceedingly uncommon. Additionally, the morbidity and mortality associated with colorectal cancer appear to be shifting to a younger population, a phenomenon that is exacerbated in minority populations. We present a case of orbital metastasis from colorectal carcinoma in a young Hispanic male. This uncommon presentation of disease emphasizes the link between healthcare disparity and differential outcomes of colorectal cancer.

Distinct clinical characteristics in stage III rectal cancer among different age groups and treatment outcomes after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

Background

There is a rapidly increasing incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) which threatens the survival of young people, while aging also represents a challenging clinical problem.

Objectives

We aimed to investigate the differences in the clinical characteristics and prognosis in stage III rectal cancer (RC), to help optimize treatment strategies.

Design and methods

This study included 757 patients with stage III RC, all of whom received neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and total mesorectal excision. The whole cohort was categorized as very early onset (VEO, ⩽30 years old), early onset (EO, >30 years old, ⩽50 years old), intermediate onset (IO, >50 years, ⩽70 years), or late onset (LO, >70 years old).

Results

There were more female VEO patients than males, more mucinous adenocarcinoma, signet-ring cell carcinoma, pre-treatment cT4 stage, and higher pre-treatment serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 compared with the other three groups. VEO patients had the worst survival with the highest RC-related mortality (34.5%), recurrence (13.8%), and metastasis (51.7%). LO patients had the highest non-RC-related mortality rate (16.6%). The Cox regression model showed VEO was a negative independent prognostic factor for disease-free survival [DFS, hazard ratio (HR): 2.830, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.633-4.904, p < 0.001], distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS, HR: 2.969, 95% CI: 1.720-5.127, p < 0.001), overall survival (OS, HR: 2.164, 95% CI: 1.102-4.249, p = 0.025), and cancer-specific survival (CSS, HR: 2.321, 95% CI: 1.145-4.705, p = 0.020). LO was a negative independent factor on DFS (HR: 1.800, 95% CI: 1.113-2.911, p = 0.017), DMFS (HR: 1.903, 95% CI: 1.150-3.149, p = 0.012), OS (HR: 2.856, 95% CI: 1.745-4.583, p < 0.001), and CSS (HR: 2.248, 95% CI: 1.282-3.942, p = 0.005). VEO patients had better survival in the total neoadjuvant therapy-like (TNT-like) pattern on DFS (p = 0.039). IO patients receiving TNT-like patterns had better survival on DFS, OS, and CSS (p = 0.006, p = 0.018, p = 0.006, respectively).

Conclusion

In stage III RC, VEO patients exhibited unique clinicopathological characteristics, with VEO a negative independent prognostic factor for DFS, DMFS, OS, and CSS. VEO and IO patients may benefit from a TNT-like treatment pattern.

Development and validation of a prediction model for early screening of people at high risk for colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a serious threat worldwide. Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC, the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic. In China, the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically, but few studies have been conducted. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.

AIM

To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.

METHODS

Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital, China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. The cohort comprised 64448 individuals, of which, 530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data. Of 63918, 7607 (11.9%) individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC, and 56311 (88.1%) were not. The participants were randomly allocated to a training set (44743) or validation set (19175). The discriminatory ability, predictive accuracy, and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis. Finally, the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.

RESULTS

Seven variables, including demographic, lifestyle, and family history information, were examined. Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age [odds ratio (OR): 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.03, P < 0.001], body mass index (BMI) (OR: 1.07, 95%CI: 1.06-1.08, P < 0.001), waist circumference (WC) (OR: 1.03, 95%CI: 1.02-1.03 P < 0.001), lifestyle (OR: 0.45, 95%CI: 0.42-0.48, P < 0.001), and family history (OR: 4.28, 95%CI: 4.04-4.54, P < 0.001) were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC. Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor, whereas family history was the most significant risk factor. The area under the curve was 0.734 (95%CI: 0.723-0.745) for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735 (95%CI: 0.728-0.742) for the training set ROC curve. The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.

CONCLUSION

The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age, BMI, WC, lifestyle, and family history exhibited high accuracy.

Multiethnic Trends in Early Onset Colorectal Cancer

Current characteristics of early onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) in the United States have been mainly studied in Whites, African Americans, and Hispanics, but little is known in regard to EOCRC in Asians and Native Hawaiians in the US. EOCRC was examined in Hawaii's multiethnic population. Data from the Hawaii Tumor Registry was used to analyze colorectal cancer (CRC) cases diagnosed in Hawaii from 2000-2019 by subsite, age, gender, ethnicity, and stage. Ethnicity analyses were limited to 3524 CRC cases, diagnosed between 2015-2019. Average annual 5-year age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates, average annual percent change over time, and 5-year survival were evaluated. Group comparisons utilized Chi-square and binomial proportion tests. Overall CRC incidence and mortality declined and were more pronounced for colon than rectal/rectosigmoid junction cancers. Colon cancer incidence rates significantly increased 1.46-fold for cases diagnosed under 45 years of age and rectal/rectosigmoid cancers significantly increased 1.54-fold for cases 45-54 years of age. CRC incidence increased sharply for females aged 45-54 years from 2000-2009 to 2010-2019, and increases in colon and rectal/rectosigmoid cancer among individuals aged 45-54 were higher for females. Among both sexes, the increase in rectal/rectosigmoid cancer incidence for individuals under 55 years was highest for stage I cancers. Overall, the mean (SD) age of CRC diagnosis was 5-10 years earlier for Native Hawaiians (60.6 [13.3] years) compared with Japanese, Chinese, Filipinos, Whites, and Other Asians (p < 0.001). Native Hawaiians constituted a greater proportion of CRC diagnosed under age 55 years and, conversely, a smaller proportion of cases 55 years and older compared with Japanese, Chinese, Filipinos, Whites, and Other Asians. Native Hawaiians had a significantly higher CRC-related mortality rate (14.5 per 100,000 [95% CI: 12.4, 16.8]) compared with Japanese (10.7 per 100,000 [95% CI: 9.3, 12.3]) and a significantly lower CRC survival rate (62.2% [95% CI: 59.1, 65.2]) compared with Japanese (71.9% [95% CI: 69.9, 73.8]), Filipinos (71.9% [95% CI: 69.2, 74.4]), Chinese (70.2% [95% CI: 65.5, 74.4]), Whites (69.3% [95% CI: 67.1, 71.4]), and Other Asians (71.7% [95% CI: 66.2, 76.5]). In our diverse US population, Native Hawaiians contribute disproportionately to EOCRC and present 5-10 years earlier than Whites, Japanese, Chinese, and Filipinos. EOCRCs are increasing faster in females than males in Hawaii, which differs from trends in the general US population. Emerging ethnic disparities in EOCRC in the US speak to the need for studies on targeted interventions and ethnic-specific risk factors for EOCRC.

Predictors of progression from subjective cognitive decline to objective cognitive impairment: A systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies

BACKGROUND

Subjective cognitive decline is one of the first symptoms of dementia. With increasing awareness of brain health and a rising prevalence of dementia, a growing number of individuals seek medical assistance for purely subjective cognitive decline. However, only individuals with specific characteristics tend to experience clinical progression.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to summarize the predictors of objective cognitive impairment in individuals with subjective cognitive decline and to identify those at higher risk of clinical progression.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

We systematically searched 11 electronic databases from inception to February 1, 2023, for longitudinal studies investigating factors associated with the clinical progression of subjective cognitive decline. Effect sizes were pooled using fixed-effects and random-effects models. Leveraging the results of the meta-analysis, we developed two risk prediction models for objective cognitive impairment.

RESULTS

Forty-six cohort studies were included in the systematic review, of which 28 met the meta-analysis criteria. Fifteen predictors were identified, including 4 biomarkers (amyloid β deposition, lower Hulstaert Formula scores, apolipoprotein e4, and hippocampus atrophy), four epidemiological factors (older age at baseline, impaired instrumental activity of daily living, depression, and anxiety), and seven neuropsychological factors (participants in clinical settings, older age at onset, stable symptom, concerns, cognitive decline confirmed by informant, severe symptoms, and poor performance on Trail Making Test B). Based on the meta-analysis results, we developed two risk prediction models. The first model (Model1) incorporates epidemiological and neuropsychological factors, distinguishing individuals with low and medium risk. The second model (Model2) includes additional biomarkers to enhance predictive performance and identify individuals at high risk.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a comprehensive characterization of individuals undergoing clinical progression from subjective cognitive decline to mild cognitive impairment or dementia. The developed models support the prediction of progression risk in both memory clinic and community settings, aiding in the early identification of individuals at risk of disease conversion and facilitating the translation of evidence into clinical practice.

REGISTRATION

The systematic review and meta-analysis have been registered in PROSPERO (CRD 42023392476).

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Factors for predicting progression from subjective cognitive decline to objective cognitive impairment: evidence from longitudinal studies.

Risk Stratification for Early-onset Colorectal Cancer Screening: Are We Ready for Implementation?

Early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) is increasing at alarming rates and identifying risk factors is a high priority. There is a need to develop risk stratification approaches for colorectal cancer screening among younger populations. Although there is a growing body of evidence identifying risk factors for EOCRC, including the report by Imperiale and colleagues in this issue, risk stratification for EOCRC screening has not been implemented into practice. This publication highlights how essential it is to bring research findings into practice and bridge the gaps between developing risk prediction modeling in epidemiology and implementation science. While encouraging, we are still a long way off from having a clinically applicable risk prediction tool. See related article by Imperiale et al., p. 513.

Field Synopsis of Environmental and Genetic Risk Factors of Sporadic Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer and Advanced Adenoma

BACKGROUND

To systematically appraise and synthesize available epidemiologic evidence on the associations of environmental and genetic factors with the risk of sporadic early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) and early-onset advanced colorectal adenoma (EOCRA).

METHODS

Multiple databases were comprehensively searched to identify eligible observational studies. Genotype data from UK Biobank were incorporated to examine their associations with EOCRC in a nested case-control design. Meta-analyses of environmental risk factors were performed, and the strength of evidence was graded based on predefined criteria. Meta-analyses of genetic associations were conducted using the allelic, recessive, and dominant models, respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 61 studies were included, reporting 120 environmental factors and 62 genetic variants. We found 12 risk factors (current overweight, overweight in adolescence, high waist circumference, smoking, alcohol, sugary beverages intake, sedentary behavior, red meat intake, family history of colorectal cancer, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and metabolic syndrome) and three protective factors (vitamin D, folate, and calcium intake) for EOCRC or EOCRA. No significant associations between the examined genetic variants and EOCRC risk were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent data indicate that the changing patterns of traditional colorectal cancer risk factors may explain the rising incidence of EOCRC. However, research on novel risk factors for EOCRC is limited; therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of EOCRC having different risk factors than late-onset colorectal cancer (LOCRC).

IMPACT

The potential for the identified risk factors to enhance the identification of at-risk groups for personalized EOCRC screening and prevention and for the prediction of EOCRC risk should be comprehensively addressed by future studies.

Risk assessment and stratification of mild cognitive impairment among the Chinese elderly: attention to modifiable risk factors

BACKGROUND

The early identification of individuals at risk of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) has major public health implications for Alzheimer's disease prevention.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to develop and validate a risk assessment tool for MCI with a focus on modifiable factors and a suggested risk stratification strategy.

METHODS

Modifiable risk factors were selected from recent reviews, and risk scores were obtained from the literature or calculated based on the Rothman-Keller model. Simulated data of 10 000 subjects with the exposure rates of the selected factors were generated, and the risk stratifications were determined by the theoretical incidences of MCI. The performance of the tool was verified using cross-sectional and longitudinal datasets from a population-based Chinese elderly cohort.

RESULTS

Nine modifiable risk factors (social isolation, less education, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, diabetes, smoking, drinking, physical inactivity and depression) were selected for the predictive model. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.71 in the training set and 0.72 in the validation set for the cross-sectional dataset. The AUCs were 0.70 and 0.64 in the training and validation sets, respectively, for the longitudinal dataset. A combined risk score of 0.95 and 1.86 was used as the threshold to categorise MCI risk as 'low', 'moderate' and 'high'.

CONCLUSION

A risk assessment tool for MCI with appropriate accuracy was developed in this study, and risk stratification thresholds were also suggested. The tool might have significant public health implications for the primary prevention of MCI in elderly individuals in China.

Delphi Initiative for Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer (DIRECt) International Management Guidelines

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with early-onset colorectal cancer (eoCRC) are managed according to guidelines that are not age-specific. A multidisciplinary international group (DIRECt), composed of 69 experts, was convened to develop the first evidence-based consensus recommendations for eoCRC.

METHODS

After reviewing the published literature, a Delphi methodology was used to draft and respond to clinically relevant questions. Each statement underwent 3 rounds of voting and reached a consensus level of agreement of ≥80%.

RESULTS

The DIRECt group produced 31 statements in 7 areas of interest: diagnosis, risk factors, genetics, pathology-oncology, endoscopy, therapy, and supportive care. There was strong consensus that all individuals younger than 50 should undergo CRC risk stratification and prompt symptom assessment. All newly diagnosed eoCRC patients should receive germline genetic testing, ideally before surgery. On the basis of current evidence, endoscopic, surgical, and oncologic treatment of eoCRC should not differ from later-onset CRC, except for individuals with pathogenic or likely pathogenic germline variants. The evidence on chemotherapy is not sufficient to recommend changes to established therapeutic protocols. Fertility preservation and sexual health are important to address in eoCRC survivors. The DIRECt group highlighted areas with knowledge gaps that should be prioritized in future research efforts, including age at first screening for the general population, use of fecal immunochemical tests, chemotherapy, endoscopic therapy, and post-treatment surveillance for eoCRC patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The DIRECt group produced the first consensus recommendations on eoCRC. All statements should be considered together with the accompanying comments and literature reviews. We highlighted areas where research should be prioritized. These guidelines represent a useful tool for clinicians caring for patients with eoCRC.

Bibliometric analysis of global research on physical activity and sedentary behavior in the context of cancer

Objective

Numerous studies focusing on sedentary behavior (SB) and physical activity (PA) in the context of cancer have been reported in recent years. We analyzed and visualized studies on SB and PA in patients with cancer over the last 20 years using scientometric methods, to provide insights on gaps and deficiencies in the literature, and to inform future research guidelines.

Methods

All relevant studies in the field from 2001 to October 2022 were reviewed using bibliometric tools, including VOSviewer, Bibliometric online analysis platform, and biblioshiny, to determine the most influential countries, institutions, journals, and authors. We explored current research hotpots and potential research trends, based on keyword clustering and dynamic changes. Our research focuses on PA, SB, and cancer across the entire cancer continuum, from primary prevention to treatment to cancer survivorship.

Results

Scientometric analysis identified 4,382 relevant manuscripts on SB and PA in the context of cancer, with a 10-fold increase in articles over the past 20 years. The United States, Canada, and Australia were the most influential countries. The journal, Supportive Care in Cancer, had the highest number of publications, while Clinical Oncology had the highest H-index. K.S. Courneya was the most influential author in this field, with the highest number of publications, total citations, and H-index. Keyword analysis revealed that current research is focused on PA and SB in patients with breast cancer, quality of life, and aerobic exercise. Future frontiers include cancer prehabilitation programs and cardiorespiratory fitness, and remote intervention and social support.

Conclusion

By using bibliometrics, we conducted a comprehensive review of SB and PA in cancer-related studies. The current research focused on exercise and sedentariness in breast cancer patients and the role of PA in improving quality of life in survivorship. Emerging research foci were generally around cancer prehabilitation programs and remote intervention issues for PA. In addition, some publication deficits are noted: studies of PA and SB in less common cancers; the recommended doses and intensities of exercise for cancer; the timing of interventions for prehabilitation and the establishment of individualized exercise protocols. These deficiencies align with the needs for future research topics.