Predictive nomogram based on serum tumor markers and clinicopathological features for stratifying lymph node metastasis in breast cancer

Construction and validation of a nomogram prediction model for axillary lymph node metastasis of cT1 invasive breast cancer

OBJECTIVE

Based on the ultrasonic characteristics of the breast mass and axillary lymph nodes as well as the clinicopathological information, a model was developed for predicting axillary lymph node metastasis in cT1 breast cancer, and relevant features associated with axillary lymph node metastasis were identified.

METHODS

Our retrospective study included 808 patients with cT1 invasive breast cancer treated at the Second Affiliated Hospital and the Cancer Hospital Affiliated with Harbin Medical University from February 2012 to August 2021 (250 cases in the positive axillary lymph node group and 558 cases in the negative axillary lymph node group). We allocated 564 cases to the training set and 244 cases to the verification set. R software was used to compare clinicopathological data and ultrasonic features between the two groups. Based on the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis, a nomogram prediction model was developed and verified for axillary lymph node metastasis of cT1 breast cancer.

RESULTS

Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that palpable lymph nodes ( P  = 0.003), tumor location ( P  = 0.010), marginal contour ( P  < 0.001), microcalcification ( P  = 0.010), surrounding tissue invasion ( P  = 0.046), ultrasonic detection of lymph nodes ( P  = 0.001), cortical thickness ( P  < 0.001) and E-cadherin ( P  < 0.001) are independently associated with axillary lymph node metastasis. Using these features, a nomogram was developed for axillary lymph node metastasis. The training set had an area under the curve of 0.869, while the validation set had an area under the curve of 0.820. Based on the calibration curve, the model predicted axillary lymph node metastases were in good agreement with reality ( P  > 0.05). Nomogram's net benefit was good based on decision curve analysis.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram developed in this study has a high negative predictive value for axillary lymph node metastasis in invasive cT1 breast c ancer. Patients with no axillary lymph node metastases can be accurately screened using this nomogram, potentially allowing this group of patients to avoid invasive surgery.

Value of Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound Combined with Immune-Inflammatory Markers in Predicting Axillary Lymph Node Metastasis of Breast Cancer

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the diagnostic performance of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) combined with immune-inflammatory markers in predicting axillary lymph node metastasis (ALNM) in breast cancer patients.

METHODS

From January 2020 to June 2023, the clinicopathological data and ultrasound features of 401 breast cancer patients who underwent biopsy or surgery were recorded. Patients were randomly divided into a training set (321 patients) and a validation set (80 patients). The risk factors for ALNM were determined using univariate, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and prediction models were constructed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess their diagnostic performance.

RESULTS

Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that systemic immunoinflammatory index (SII), CA125, Ki67, pathological type, lesion size, enhancement pattern and Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) category were significant risk factors for ALNM. Three different models were constructed, and the combined model yielded an AUC of 0.903, which was superior to the clinical model (AUC=0.790) and ultrasound model (AUC=0.781). A nomogram was constructed based on the combined model, calibration curves and DCA demonstrated its satisfactory performance in predicting ALNM.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram combining ultrasound features and immune-inflammatory markers could serve as a valuable instrument for predicting ALNM in breast cancer patients.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article. Further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding authors.

Development and validation of a novel preoperative clinical model for predicting lymph node metastasis in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUD

We aimed to develop a novel preoperative nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis (LNM) in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) patients.

METHODS

160 pCCA patients were enrolled at Lihuili Hospital from July 2006 to May 2022. A novel nomogram model was established to predict LNM in pCCA patients based on the independent predictive factors selected by the multivariate logistic regression model. The precision of the nomogram model was evaluated through internal and external validation with calibration curve statistics and the concordance index (C-index). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate and determine the clinical utility of the nomogram.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that age (OR = 0.963, 95% CI: 0.930-0.996, P = 0.030), CA19-9 level (> 559.8 U/mL vs. ≤559.8 U/mL: OR = 3.162, 95% CI: 1.519-6.582, P = 0.002) and tumour diameter (OR = 1.388, 95% CI: 1.083-1.778, P = 0.010) were independent predictive factors of LNM in pCCA patients. The C-index was 0.763 (95% CI: 0.667-0.860) and 0.677 (95% CI: 0.580-0.773) in training cohort and validation cohort, respectively. ROC curve analysis indicated the comparative stability and adequate discriminative ability of nomogram. The sensitivity and specificity were 0.820 and 0.652 in training cohort and 0.704 and 0.649 in validation cohort, respectively. DCA revealed that the nomogram model could augment net benefits in the prediction of LNM in pCCA patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel prediction model is useful for predicting LNM in pCCA patients and showed adequate discriminative ability and high predictive accuracy.

The Ongoing Necessity of Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy for cT1-2N0 Breast Cancer Patients

Background

Recent clinical trials attempt to determine whether it is appropriate to omit axillary lymph node surgery in patients with cT1-2N0 breast cancer. The study aimed to investigate the true extent of axillary node disease in patients with clinically negative nodes and explore the differences between negative axillary ultrasound (AUS-cN0) and suspicious axillary ultrasound with negative fine-needle aspiration (FNA-cN0).

Methods

Pathologically identified T1-2 invasive breast cancer patients with clinically negative nodes were retrospectively analyzed at our center between January 2019 and December 2022. Patients who received any systematic treatment before surgery were excluded from this study.

Results

A total of 538 patients were enrolled in this study. 134 (24.9%) patients had pathologically positive nodes, and 404 (75.1%) patients had negative nodes. Univariate analysis revealed that tumor size, T stage, Ki67 level, and vascular invasion (VI) were strongly associated with pathological axillary lymph node positivity. In multivariate analysis, VI was the only independent risk factor for node positivity in patients with cT1-2N0 disease (OR: 3.723, confidence interval [CI]: 2.380-5.824, p < 0.001). Otherwise, pathological node positivity was not significantly different between AUS-cN0 and FNA-cN0 groups (23.4% vs. 28.8%, p = 0.193). However, the rate of high nodal burden (≥3 positive nodes) was significantly higher in FNA-cN0 group. Further investigation revealed that FNA-cN0 and VI were independently associated with a high nodal burden (OR: 2.650, CI: 1.081-6.496, p = 0.033; OR: 3.521, CI: 1.249-9.931, p = 0.017, respectively).

Conclusions

cT1-2 breast cancer patients with clinically negative axillary lymph nodes may have pathologically positive lymph nodes and even a high nodal burden. False negatives in AUS and AUS-guided FNA should not be ignored, and sentinel lymph node biopsy remains an ongoing necessity for cT1-2N0 breast cancer patients.