Trends and seasonality in cause-specific mortality among children under 15 years in Guangzhou, China, 2008-2018

Coastal mortality burden on school holidays 2004-2021: an Australian perspective

INTRODUCTION

School holidays are a known period of increased risk of paediatric drowning. However, the risk of coastal death for all age groups is unknown.

METHODS

This case-control study aimed to identify high-risk demographics and behaviours relating to coastal deaths during the school holidays. We address this knowledge gap by comparing unintentional coastal deaths (drowning deaths and other coastal fatalities) in Australia between 1 July 2004-30 June 2021 to a survey sample representative of the Australian population.

RESULTS

School holidays increased the risk of coastal death increased overall by 1.39 times (95% CI 1.32 to 146, p=0.00019). This increased risk differed across activities, behaviours and demographics. Few between-group differences were detected, indicating that school holidays pose an increased risk to the wider Australian population on the coast, regardless of demographics and practices. Increased school holiday mortality risk was identified broadly across groups, but notably for young adults (risk ratio, RR 1.41, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.53, p<0.001), when attempting a rescue (RR 1.85, 95% CI 1.42 to 2.39, p=0.0002), scuba diving (RR 1.82, 95% CI 1.48 to 2.23, p<0.0001) and swimming/wading (RR 1.72, 95% CI 1.56 to 1.89, p<0.0001). Children did not have a significantly increased risk of death (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.87, p=0.054).

CONCLUSION

These results highlight that while school holiday risk research regarding drowning has focused on the safety of children, these time periods also pose significant safety concerns to the rest of the population for both drowning deaths and other fatalities. Overall, the research highlights ongoing need for public education for all carers of children, as well as continuing to extend risk education to the broader community. Mitigation strategies, that is, advocacy for extending life-saving service and engaging with accommodation providers during school holidays are proposed.

Trends, influencing factors and prediction analysis of under-five and maternal mortality rates in China from 1991 to 2020

Introduction

Under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and maternal mortality rate (MMR) are important indicators for evaluating the quality of perinatal health and child health services in a country or region, and are research priorities for promoting maternal and infant safety and maternal and child health. This paper aimed to analysis and predict the trends of U5MR and MMR in China, to explore the impact of social health services and economic factors on U5MR and MMR, and to provide a basis for relevant departments to formulate relevant policies and measures.

Methods

The JoinPoint regression model was established to conduct time trend analysis and describe the trend of neonatal mortality rate (NMR), infant mortality rate (IMR), U5MR and MMR in China from 1991 to 2020. The linear mixed effect model was used to assess the fixed effects of maternal health care services and socioeconomic factors on U5MR and MMR were explored, with year as a random effect to minimize the effect of collinearity. Auto regressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) were built to predict U5MR and MMR from 2021 to 2025.

Results

The NMR, IMR, U5MR and MMR from 1991 to 2020 in China among national, urban and rural areas showed continuous downward trends. The NMR, IMR, U5MR and MMR were significantly negatively correlated with gross domestic product (GDP), the proportion of the total health expenditure (THE) to GDP, system management rate, prenatal care rate, post-natal visit rate and hospital delivery rate. The predicted values of national U5MR from 2021 to 2025 were 7.3 ‰, 7.2 ‰, 7.1 ‰, 7.1 ‰ and 7.2 ‰ and the predicted values of national MMR were 13.8/100000, 12.1/100000, 10.6/100000, 9.6/100000 and 8.3/100000.

Conclusion

China has made great achievements in reducing the U5MR and MMR. It is necessary for achieving the goals of Healthy China 2030 by promoting the equalization of basic public health services and further optimizing the allocation of government health resources. China's experience in reducing U5MR and MMR can be used as a reference for developing countries to realize the SDGs.

Mortality Risk and Burden From a Spectrum of Causes in Relation to Size-Fractionated Particulate Matters: Time Series Analysis

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence regarding the adverse impact of particulate matters (PMs) on multiple body systems from both epidemiological and mechanistic studies. The association between size-fractionated PMs and mortality risk, as well as the burden of a whole spectrum of causes of death, remains poorly characterized.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to examine the wide range of susceptible diseases affected by different sizes of PMs. We also assessed the association between PMs with an aerodynamic diameter less than 1 µm (PM1), 2.5 µm (PM2.5), and 10 µm (PM10) and deaths from 36 causes in Guangzhou, China.

METHODS

Daily data were obtained on cause-specific mortality, PMs, and meteorology from 2014 to 2016. A time-stratified case-crossover approach was applied to estimate the risk and burden of cause-specific mortality attributable to PMs after adjusting for potential confounding variables, such as long-term trend and seasonality, relative humidity, temperature, air pressure, and public holidays. Stratification analyses were further conducted to explore the potential modification effects of season and demographic characteristics (eg, gender and age). We also assessed the reduction in mortality achieved by meeting the new air quality guidelines set by the World Health Organization (WHO).

RESULTS

Positive and monotonic associations were generally observed between PMs and mortality. For every 10 μg/m3 increase in 4-day moving average concentrations of PM1, PM2.5, and PM10, the risk of all-cause mortality increased by 2.00% (95% CI 1.08%-2.92%), 1.54% (95% CI 0.93%-2.16%), and 1.38% (95% CI 0.95%-1.82%), respectively. Significant effects of size-fractionated PMs were observed for deaths attributed to nonaccidental causes, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, neoplasms, chronic rheumatic heart diseases, hypertensive diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, stroke, influenza, and pneumonia. If daily concentrations of PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 reached the WHO target levels of 10, 15, and 45 μg/m3, 7921 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4454-11,206), 8303 (95% eCI 5063-11,248), and 8326 (95% eCI 5980-10690) deaths could be prevented, respectively. The effect estimates of PMs were relatively higher during hot months, among female individuals, and among those aged 85 years and older, although the differences between subgroups were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed positive and monotonical exposure-response curves between PMs and deaths from several diseases. The effect of PM1 was stronger on mortality than that of PM2.5 and PM10. A substantial number of premature deaths could be preventable by adhering to the WHO's new guidelines for PMs. Our findings highlight the importance of a size-based strategy in controlling PMs and managing their health impact.

Medicolegal study of Egyptian suspicious childhood deaths during 2020-2021

BACKGROUND

Pediatric autopsy is an effective tool for identifying the cause and the manner of death in suspicious childhood deaths.

AIM OF THE STUDY

To explore the pattern of suspicious childhood deaths during the recent years (2020-2021) in the Egyptian community and to identify the risk factors to avoid them during the childhood period.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

One hundred and fifty Egyptian suspicious child death cadavers (less than 18 years old) were autopsied in Zeinhom Morgue during one-year period (2020-2021). Demographic data, circumstances of death, causes and manner of death were defined and statistically analyzed.

RESULTS

Identity was known in 77.3% of the studied cases, and male to female ratio was 2.2:1. Most of cases were recruited from Cairo and Giza governorates. Adolescents contributed to about one third of the cases. Deaths at home or in hospital were more than outdoor deaths. Seasonal variation was observed as more cases were autopsied during spring and summer. Homicidal deaths (32%) were more in toddlers and adolescents mostly by blunt trauma (58.3%) with signs of violence and resistance or child abuse, mainly in males. The perpetrator was known to be a family member in more than half of the studied cases (56.25%). Accidental deaths (17.3%) were mainly by firearm injuries or poisoning. Suicidal deaths (13.3%) were represented more in adolescents by hanging or by aluminum phosphide poisoning. Natural deaths (13.3%) by bronchopneumonia or leukemia were found in neonates and adolescents. Sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) (6.7%) was diagnosed by exclusion among neonates and infants only during spring, with equal gender distribution (1:1). Malpractice (6%) leads to death by sepsis or hemorrhage.

CONCLUSIONS

All manners of death contribute to suspicious death during childhood period, especially during summer and spring. Family members are the perpetrator for most of accidental, homicidal or suicidal deaths.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Training courses are recommended to parents for proper care and protection of their children to avoid violence, abuse and accidents at home or outdoor.

Changes and Trend Disparities in Life Expectancy and Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy Attributed to Disability and Mortality From 1990 to 2019 in China

Objective

This study aims to investigate sex, age, and cause-specific contributions to changes and trend disparities in life expectancy (LE) and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) attributed to disability and mortality from 1990 to 2019 in China, which provides insight into policy-making, health systems planning, and resource allocation.

Methods

Contributions of disability and mortality to changes and trend disparities in LE and HALE were estimated with standard abridged life table, Sullivan's method, and decomposition method, using retrospective demographic analysis based on mortality and years lived with disability (YLD) rates extracted from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019).

Results

From 1990 to 2019, LE and HALE increased by 10.49 and 8.71 years for both sexes, mainly due to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) (5.83 years, 55.58% for LE and 6.28 years, 72.10% for HALE). However, HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections had negative effects on changes in LE (−0.03 years, −0.29%) and HALE (−0.05 years, −0.57%). Lung cancer and ischemic heart disease caused the biggest reduction in LE (−0.14 years, −1.33%) and HALE (−0.42 years, −4.82%). Also, cardiovascular diseases (−0.08 years, −0.92%), neurological disorders (−0.08 years, −0.92%), diabetes and kidney diseases (−0.06 years, −0.69%), and transport injuries (−0.06 years, −0.69%) had main negative disability effects in HALE. Moreover, life expectancy lived with disability (LED) increased by 1.78 years, mainly attributed to respiratory infections and tuberculosis (1.04 years, 58.43%) and maternal and neonatal disorders (0.78 years, 43.82%).

Conclusion

The LE and HALE in China have grown rapidly over the past few decades, mainly attributed to NCDs. It is necessary to further reduce the negative mortality effect of HIV/AIDS, lung cancer, colon and rectum cancer, pancreatic cancer, and ischemic heart disease and the negative disability effect of stroke, diabetes mellitus, and road injuries. In addition, the signs of disparities in mortality and disability of different sexes and ages call for targeted and precise interventions for key groups such as males and the elderly. According to the decomposition results, we may better determine the key objects of health policies that take into account substantial cause-specific variations to facilitate the realization of “healthy China 2030” plan.