Individually optimal choices can be collectively disastrous in COVID-19 disease control

Antibody escape, the risk of serotype formation, and rapid immune waning: Modeling the implications of SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion

As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has ushered in a volatile era of viral immune evasion rather than the much-heralded stability of "endemicity" or "herd immunity." At this point, an array of viral strains has rendered essentially all monoclonal antibody therapeutics obsolete and strongly undermined the impact of vaccinal immunity on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this work, we demonstrate that antibody escape resulting in evasion of pre-existing immunity is highly evolutionarily favored and likely to cause waves of short-term transmission. In the long-term, invading strains that induce weak cross-immunity against pre-existing strains may co-circulate with those pre-existing strains. This would result in the formation of serotypes that increase disease burden, complicate SARS-CoV-2 control, and raise the potential for increases in viral virulence. Less durable immunity does not drive positive selection as a trait, but such strains may transmit at high levels if they establish. Overall, our results draw attention to the importance of inter-strain cross-immunity as a driver of transmission trends and the importance of early immune evasion data to predict the trajectory of the pandemic.

Vaccination dilemma in the thermodynamic limit

The vaccination game is a social dilemma that refers to the conundrum individuals face (to get immunized or not) when the population is exposed to an infectious disease. The model has recently gained much traction due to the COVID-19 pandemic since the public perception of vaccines plays a significant role in disease dynamics. This paper studies the vaccination game in the thermodynamic limit with an analytical method derived from the 1D Ising model called Nash equilibrium mapping. The individual dilemma regarding vaccination comes from an internal conflict wherein one tries to balance the perceived advantages of immunizing with the apparent risks associated with vaccination, which they hear through different news media. We compare the results of Nash equilibrium (NE) mapping from other 1D Ising-based models, namely, Darwinian evolution (DE) and agent-based simulation. This study aims to analyze the behavior of an infinite population regarding what fraction of people choose to vaccinate or not vaccinate. While Nash equilibrium mapping and agent-based simulation agree mostly, DE strays far from the two models. DE fails to predict the equilibrium behavior of players in the population reasonably. We apply the results of our study to analyze the AstraZeneca (AZ) COVID-19 vaccine risk vs disease deaths debate, both via NE mapping and the agent-based method. Both predict nearly 100% AZ vaccine coverage for people aged above 40, notwithstanding the risk. At the same time, younger people show a slight reluctance. We predict that while government intervention via vaccination mandates and/or advertisement campaigns are unnecessary for the older population, for the younger population (ages: 20-39), some encouragement from the government via media campaigns and/or vaccine mandates may be necessary.

Vaccine Allocation and Distribution: A Review with a Focus on Quantitative Methodologies and Application to Equity, Hesitancy, and COVID-19 Pandemic

This review focuses on vaccine distribution and allocation in the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic. The implications discussed are in the areas of equity in vaccine distribution and allocation (at a national level as well as worldwide), vaccine hesitancy, game-theoretic modeling to guide decision-making and policy-making at a governmental level, distribution and allocation barriers (in particular in low-income countries), and operations research (OR) mathematical models to plan and execute vaccine distribution and allocation. To conduct this review, we adopt a novel methodology that consists of three phases. The first phase deploys a bibliometric analysis; the second phase concentrates on a network analysis; and the last phase proposes a refined literature review based on the results obtained by the previous two phases. The quantitative techniques utilized to conduct the first two phases allow describing the evolution of the research in this area and its potential ramifications in future. In conclusion, we underscore the significance of operations research (OR)/management science (MS) research in addressing numerous challenges and trade-offs connected to the current pandemic and its strategic impact in future research.

COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy in Three Latin American Countries: Reasons Given for Not Becoming Vaccinated in Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela

Although vaccines have been developed to prevent COVID-19, vaccine hesitancy is a significant barrier for vaccination programs. Most research on COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy has blamed misinformation and misstated concerns about effectiveness, safety, and side effects of these vaccines. The preponderance of these studies has been performed in the Global North. Although Latin American has been substantially and negatively impacted by COVID-19, few studies have examined COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy there. We explored reasons volunteered for COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy from a sample of 1,173 Colombians, Ecuadorians, and Venezuelans. Overall, COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in these three countries is higher than desirable, but most people who are COVID-19 vaccine hesitant offered one reason or fewer. The reasons offered are diverse, including myths and exaggerations, but also individual-level contraindications for vaccination and structural barriers. Because of the diversity of reasons, single-issue mass campaigns are unlikely to bring about large shifts in COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela. Our data suggest that interpersonal communication, particularly in Ecuador, and addressing structural concerns, particularly in Venezuela, are likely to have the greatest impact on vaccine uptake.

Is Mexico's population hesitant towards COVID-19 vaccines? A 2021 survey on different levels of hesitancy and its determinants

Vaccine hesitancy is a well-known phenomenon whereby individuals in a population reject or delay being vaccinated despite having access to vaccine services. This phenomenon is especially problematic in the current context of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) pandemic because vaccine hesitancy can decrease vaccination rates. In Mexico, vaccine hesitancy has been less thoroughly studied than in other countries such as the United States despite its importance and the potential impact of overlooking the problem. Understanding and effectively tackling this problem requires a more in-depth analysis of the defining characteristics of vaccination hesitancy. For this purpose, the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Vaccine Hesitancy Determinants Matrix (VHDM in this study) is highly useful. In the present study, a digital survey was conducted using Google Forms to assess the level of vaccine hesitancy in the Mexican population and the vaccine determinants of the VHDM model associated with the respondents' different levels of vaccine hesitancy. The sample consisted of 1,195 people divided into four levels of vaccine hesitancy based on their answers. Tests for association were performed, identifying an association between some determinants of the VHDM model and the levels of vaccine hesitancy. Based on the analysis of the survey results, areas of opportunity for addressing COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in Mexico were found and discussed; these included the importance of studying vaccine hesitancy as a complex and changing gradient, the high connectivity of people with high level of vaccine hesitancy to networks of people with vaccine hesitancy, the relatively high trust in physicians at all levels of vaccine hesitancy, the low trust in government authorities at high and moderate levels of vaccine hesitancy, and the strong association of the fear of suffering side effects and knowing people who have suffered them with the level of vaccine hesitancy.

•

Non-binary classification of hesitancy is essential for vaccine hesitancy studies.

•

Determinants from all domains of the WHO VHDM were identified in the population.

•

Trust in physicians has a high potential to help address Mexico’s vaccine hesitancy.

•

Mistrust in government and previous experiences should be considered.

Determinants of COVID-19 skepticism and SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy: findings from a national population survey of U.S. adults

BACKGROUND

The enduring presence of COVID-19 skepticism and SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy is an ongoing impediment to the global response effort to the current pandemic. This study seeks to identify determinants of skepticism and vaccine hesitancy in U.S. adults.

METHODS

Data are from the Values and Beliefs of the American Public Survey, conducted in 2021 by the Gallup Organization in conjunction with Baylor University. The survey used stratified random probability sampling of the U.S. adult population (N = 1222). Outcome measures were respective single items assessing COVID-19 skepticism and SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy. Exposure variables included political, religious, and sociodemographic indicators, and moderators assessed personal history of COVID-19 and losing a relative or close friend to COVID-19.

RESULTS

Skepticism and vaccine hesitancy were strongly associated with conservative and Republican political preference and conservative religious beliefs, and less so with socioeconomic status. Personal experience with COVID-19 did not mitigate the effect of politics on skepticism and barely reduced the odds for hesitancy. Results confirm that attitudes toward COVID-19 are politically and religiously conditioned, and are especially a product of conservative political preference.

CONCLUSION

Skepticism about COVID-19 and hesitancy regarding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination are highest among the political and religious right. Efforts to increase immunization through public education may be inadequate; resistance appears ideological. Other solutions may need to be considered, which risk widespread pushback both politically and religiously motivated.

COVID-19 Pandemic and Individuals With Intellectual Disability: Special Olympics as an Example of Organizational Responses and Challenges

The COVID-19 pandemic is a worldwide crisis. It has been, and is, an extreme challenge for our health care and prevention systems, and for society as a whole. Among many facets of life, physical activity and sport has been heavily impacted. The aim of this viewpoint article is to highlight the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on individuals with an intellectual disability, with a particular focus on physical activity and Special Olympics. Specific objectives are (a) to share what the literature reveals about the impact of COVID-19 on the health and well-being of individuals with an intellectual disability, (b) to examine what is known about the impact of the pandemic on physical activity of individuals with an intellectual disability, (c) to describe Special Olympics program responses during the pandemic, and (d) to recommend areas for future research.