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Ye Y, Zhang Q, Wei X, Cao Z, Yuan HY, Zeng DD. Equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines makes a life-saving difference to all countries. Nat Hum Behav 2022; 6:207-216. [PMID: 35102361 PMCID: PMC8873023 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-022-01289-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 61] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2021] [Accepted: 01/05/2022] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
Despite broad agreement on the negative consequences of vaccine inequity, the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines is imbalanced. Access to vaccines in high-income countries (HICs) is far greater than in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). As a result, there continue to be high rates of COVID-19 infections and deaths in LMICs. In addition, recent mutant COVID-19 outbreaks may counteract advances in epidemic control and economic recovery in HICs. To explore the consequences of vaccine (in)equity in the face of evolving COVID-19 strains, we examine vaccine allocation strategies using a multistrain metapopulation model. Our results show that vaccine inequity provides only limited and short-term benefits to HICs. Sharper disparities in vaccine allocation between HICs and LMICs lead to earlier and larger outbreaks of new waves. Equitable vaccine allocation strategies, in contrast, substantially curb the spread of new strains. For HICs, making immediate and generous vaccine donations to LMICs is a practical pathway to protect everyone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yang Ye
- School of Data Science, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Qingpeng Zhang
- School of Data Science, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
| | - Xuan Wei
- Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Zhidong Cao
- The State Key Laboratory of Management and Control for Complex Systems, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.,School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Hsiang-Yu Yuan
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.,Centre for Applied One Health Research and Policy Advice, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Daniel Dajun Zeng
- The State Key Laboratory of Management and Control for Complex Systems, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. .,School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dan Yamin
- Laboratory for Epidemic Modeling and Analysis, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel. .,Center for Combatting Pandemics, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
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