Neck pain patterns and subgrouping based on weekly SMS-derived trajectories

Development, validation and use of custom software for the analysis of pain trajectories

In chronic musculoskeletal conditions, the prognosis tends to be more informative than the diagnosis for the future course of the disease. Many studies have identified clusters of patients who seemingly share similar pain trajectories. In a dataset of low back pain (LBP) patients, pain trajectories have been identified, and distinct trajectory types have been defined, making it possible to create pattern recognition software that can classify patients into respective pain trajectories reflecting their condition. It has been suggested that the classification of pain trajectories may create clinically meaningful subgroups of patients in an otherwise heterogeneous population of patients with LBP. A software tool was created that combined the ability to recognise the pain trajectory of patients with a system that could create subgroups of patients based on their characteristics. This tool is primarily meant for researchers to analyse trends in large heterogeneous datasets without large losses of data. Prospective analysis of pain trajectories is not directly helpful for clinicians. However, the tool might aid in the identification of patient characteristics which have predictive capabilities of the most likely trajectory a patient might experience in the future. This will help clinicians to tailor their advice and treatment for a specific patient.

Chiropractic spinal manipulative therapy for acute neck pain: A 4-arm clinical placebo randomized controlled trial. A prospective study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Neck pain poses enormous individual and societal costs worldwide. Spinal manipulative therapy and Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug treatment are frequently used despite a lack of compelling efficacy data. This protocol describes a multicentre 4-arm, clinical placebo randomized controlled trial (RCT), investigating the efficacy of chiropractic spinal manipulative therapy (CSMT) versus sham CSMT, ibuprofen, and placebo medicine for acute neck pain. This superiority study will employ parallel groups, featuring a 1:1:1:1 allocation ratio.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We will randomize 320 participants equally into four groups: CSMT, sham CSMT, ibuprofen, or placebo medicine. CSMT groups are single-blinded, while the medicine groups are double-blinded. Data will be collected at baseline (Day 0), during treatment and post-treatment. The primary endpoint will assess the difference in mean pain intensity from Day 0 to Day 14 on a numeric rating scale 0-10; the CSMT group is compared to sham CSMT, ibuprofen, and placebo medicine groups, respectively. Secondary endpoints will assess mean pain intensity and mean duration at different time points, and adverse events, blinding success, and treatment satisfaction, including comparison between ibuprofen and placebo medicine. Power calculation is based on a mean neck pain rating of 5 at Day 0, with standard deviation of 1 in all groups. Mean pain reduction at Day 14 is expected to be 60% in the CSMT group, 40% in sham CSMT and ibuprofen groups, and 20% in the placebo medicine group. A linear mixed model will compare the mean values for groups with corresponding 95% confidence intervals. P values below 0.017 will be considered statistically significant. All analyses will be conducted blinded from group allocation.

DISCUSSION

This RCT aims towards the highest research standards possible for manual-therapy RCTs owing to its two placebo arms. If CSMT and/or ibuprofen proves to be effective, it will provide evidence-based support for CSMT and/or ibuprofen for acute neck pain.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT05374057. EU Clinical Trials Register: EudraCT number: 2021-005483-21.

Effectiveness of Exercise Interventions for Preventing Neck Pain: A Systematic Review With Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

OBJECTIVE: To update the evidence on the effectiveness of exercise interventions to prevent episodes of neck pain. DESIGN: Systematic review with meta-analysis. LITERATURE SEARCH: MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, CINAHL, SPORTDiscus, PEDro, and trial registries from inception to December 2, 2022. Forward and backward citation searches. STUDY SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that enrolled adults without neck pain at baseline and compared exercise interventions to no intervention, placebo/sham, attention control, or minimal intervention. Military populations and astronauts were excluded. DATA SYNTHESIS: Random-effects meta-analysis. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane RoB 2 tool. The certainty of evidence was judged according to the GRADE approach. RESULTS: Of 4703 records screened, 5 trials (1722 participants at baseline) were included and eligible for meta-analysis. Most (80%) participants were office workers. Risk of bias was rated as some concerns for 2 trials and high for 3 trials. There was moderate-certainty evidence that exercise interventions probably reduce the risk of a new episode of neck pain (OR, 0.49; 95% confidence interval: 0.31, 0.76) compared to no or minimal intervention in the short-term (≤12 months). The results were not robust to sensitivity analyses for missing outcome data. CONCLUSION: There was moderate-certainty evidence supporting exercise interventions for reducing the risk for an episode of neck pain in the next 12 months. The clinical significance of the effect is unclear. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2023;53(10):1-16. Epub: 8 September 2023. doi:10.2519/jospt.2023.12063.

The effectiveness of aerobic versus strengthening exercise therapy in individuals with chronic whiplash-associated disorder: a randomised single case experimental design study

PURPOSE

Recent RCTs and meta-analyses compare the effectiveness of different types of exercise for chronic whiplash associated disorder (WAD). This study aimed to verify whether the results of these studies translate to statistically significant and clinically meaningful effects in individual participants.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A series of replicated randomised single case experimental design studies (SCEDs) with A-B design (A: baseline, B: intervention). Eight participants with chronic WAD (8 female, mean [SD] age 47 [10] years) were randomised into one of four baseline durations (5, 8, 11, and 14 days) and to one of two eight-week exercise interventions (aerobic or strengthening). Daily measures of pain intensity, bothersomeness, and interference were collected during the baseline phase and the intervention phase.

RESULTS

Visual analyses indicated that three participants in the aerobic exercise group meaningfully improved. No improvements were found in the strengthening group. Effect sizes favoured the aerobic exercise group, yet randomisation tests of pooled effects did not show a difference in between-intervention effectiveness.

CONCLUSION

Contrary to our expectations, three out of four participants were nearly pain-free at the end of the aerobic exercise intervention, whereas none of the participants in the strengthening group improved meaningfully. This suggests that aerobic exercise may be favourable for WAD.Implications for RehabilitationOur results suggest that aerobic exercises are favourable over strengthening exercises and may be the preferred option for patients with chronic WAD.We found substantial variability in self-reported outcomes within participants, clinicians should be aware of this in the judgement of treatment effectiveness.

Clinical indicators for recommending continued care to patients with neck pain in chiropractic practice: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Chiropractors' clinical indicators for recommending preventive continued care to patients with low back pain include previous pain episodes, a history of long pain duration and improvement after initial treatment. Our objectives were, in a cohort of patients with neck pain, to examine whether these clinical indicators were associated with being recommended continued care beyond 4 weeks, and if so whether this recommendation was dependent of chiropractor characteristics, as well as if the number of clinical indicators influenced this recommendation.

METHODS

In this multi-center observational study, 172 patients seeking care for a new episode of neck pain in chiropractic practice in Norway were included between September 2015 and May 2016. The chiropractors treated their patients as per usual, and for this study, baseline data and 4-week follow-up data were used. Patient data included the clinical indicators (1) previous episodes of neck pain, (2) a history of long duration neck pain and (3) improvement four weeks after initial treatment. The recruiting chiropractors were asked at 4-week follow-up if each patient was recommended continued care, defined as care planned beyond the first 4 weeks. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models investigated the association between clinical indicators and the continued care recommendation, as well as the influence of chiropractor characteristics on this recommendation. Cross tabulations investigated the relationship between the number of indicators present and recommendation of continued care.

RESULTS

Long duration of neck pain was the strongest clinical indicator for being recommended continued care 4 weeks after the initial treatment. Chiropractor characteristics were not associated with this recommendation. In patients with all three clinical indicators present, 39% were recommended continued care. When two and one indicators were present, the percentages of those recommended continued care were 25% and 10%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Chiropractors recommended continued care for patients experiencing neck pain based on their history of long pain duration, and this was not influenced by characteristics of the chiropractor. This differs from previous studies of indicators for maintenance care in patients with low back pain.

Combination of health care service use and the relation to demographic and socioeconomic factors for patients with musculoskeletal disorders: a descriptive cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients with musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) access health care in different ways. Despite the high prevalence and significant costs, we know little about the different ways patients use health care. We aim to fill this gap by identifying which combinations of health care services patients use for new MSDs, and its relation to clinical characteristics, demographic and socioeconomic factors, long-term use and costs, and discuss what the implications of this variation are.

METHODS

The study combines Norwegian registers on health care use, diagnoses, comorbidities, demographic and socioeconomic factors. Patients (≥ 18 years) are included by their first health consultation for MSD in 2013-2015. Latent class analysis (LCA) with count data of first year consultations for General Practitioners (GPs), hospital consultants, physiotherapists and chiropractors are used to identify combinations of health care use. Long-term high-cost patients are defined as total cost year 1-5 above 95th percentile (≥ 3 744€).

RESULTS

We identified seven latent classes: 1: GP, low use; 2: GP, high use; 3: GP and hospital; 4: GP and physiotherapy, low use; 5: GP, hospital and physiotherapy, high use; 6: Chiropractor, low use; 7: GP and chiropractor, high use. Median first year health care contacts varied between classes from 1-30 and costs from 20€-838€. Eighty-seven percent belonged to class 1, 4 or 6, characterised by few consultations and treatment in primary care. Classes with high first year use were characterised by higher age, lower education and more comorbidities and were overrepresented among the long-term high-cost users.

CONCLUSION

There was a large variation in first year health care service use, and we identified seven latent classes based on frequency of consultations. A small proportion of patients accounted for a high proportion of total resource use. This can indicate the potential for more efficient resource use. However, the effect of demographic and socioeconomic variables for determining combinations of service use can be interpreted as the health care system transforming unobserved patient needs into variations in use. These findings contribute to the understanding of clinical pathways and can help in the planning of future care, reduction in disparities and improvement in health outcomes for patients with MSDs.

Temporal stability of self-reported visual back pain trajectories

ABSTRACT

Low back pain (LBP) follows different pain trajectories, and patients seem to recognize their trajectory. This allows self-reported visual pain trajectories (SRVTs) to support patient-provider communication. Pain trajectories appear stable over time for many patients, but the evidence is sparse. Our objectives were to investigate the (1) temporal stability of SRVTs over 1 year concerning pain intensity and course patterns and (2) association of transitions between SRVTs and changes in pain and disability. This study used data from 2 prospective primary care cohorts: the Danish Chiropractic LBP Cohort (n = 1323) and the GLA:D Back cohort (n = 1135). Participants identified one of the 8 SRVTs at baseline and 12-month follow-up, each asking about LBP trajectories the preceding year. Trajectories were described using 2 subscales (intensity and pattern). Temporal stability was quantified by "stability odds ratios" (ORs), depicting the likelihood of staying in the same SRVT after 12 months compared with baseline, and by "preference ORs," depicting the likelihood of choosing a specific alternative SRVT at follow-up. Both ORs compare the observed proportion with the chance level. Finally, we examined associations between transitioning to a different trajectory and changes in clinical outcomes. Approximately 30% stayed in the same SRVT. The stability ORs were all >1. The preference ORs indicated that transitions occurred mainly to similar SRVTs differing in only 1 subscale. Transitions to less or more intense SRVTs were associated with changes in clinical outcomes in the expected direction. Despite distinctly different SRVTs identified, individuals reported relatively stable LBP phenotypes but with potential for change.

Are changes in pain associated with changes in heart rate variability in patients treated for recurrent or persistent neck pain?

BACKGROUND

Persistent or recurrent neck pain is associated with perturbations in the autonomic nervous system balance, and nociceptive stimulation has been seen to influence this balance. However, very few prospective studies have addressed the extent to which changes in pain associate with changes in autonomic cardiac regulation. Therefore, we investigated if changes in pain vary with changes in heart rate variability in a cohort of patients treated for persistent or recurrent neck pain.

METHOD

This analysis is based on data from a randomized controlled trial in which participants were given home stretching exercises with or without spinal manipulative therapy for two weeks. As the effectiveness of the intervention (home stretching exercises and spinal manipulative therapy) was found to be equal to the control (home stretching exercises alone), all 127 participants were studied as one cohort in this analysis. During the intervention, pain levels were recorded using daily text messages, and heart rate variability was measured in the clinics three times over two weeks. Two approaches were used to classify patients based on changes in pain intensity: 1) Clinically important changes in pain were categorized as either "improved" or "not improved" and, 2) Pain development was measured using pain trajectories, constructed in a data driven approach. The association of pain categories and trajectories with changes in heart rate variability indices over time were then analysed using linear mixed models.

RESULTS

Heart rate variability did not differ significantly between improved and not-improved patients, nor were there any associations with the different pain trajectories.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, changes in pain after home stretching exercises with or without spinal manipulative therapy over two weeks were not significantly associated with changes in heart rate variability for patients with persistent or recurrent neck pain. Future studies should rely on more frequent measurements of HRV during longer treatment periods.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, registration number: NCT03576846.

Exploring visual pain trajectories in neck pain patients, using clinical course, SMS-based patterns, and patient characteristics: a cohort study

Background

The dynamic nature of neck pain has so far been identified through longitudinal studies with frequent measures, a method which is time-consuming and impractical. Pictures illustrating different courses of pain may be an alternative solution, usable in both clinical work and research, but it is unknown how well they capture the clinical course. The aim of this study was to explore and describe self-reported visual trajectories in terms of details of patients’ prospectively reported clinical course, their SMS-based pattern classification of neck pain, and patient’s characteristics.

Methods

Prospective cohort study including 888 neck pain patients from chiropractic practice, responding to weekly SMS-questions about pain intensity for 1 year from 2015 to 2017. Patients were classified into one of three clinical course patterns using definitions based on previously published descriptors. At 1-year follow-up, patients selected a visual trajectory that best represented their retrospective 1-year course of pain: single episode, episodic, mild ongoing, fluctuating and severe ongoing.

Results

The visual trajectories generally resembled the 1-year clinical course characteristics on group level, but there were large individual variations. Patients selecting Episodic and Mild ongoing visual trajectories were similar on most parameters. The visual trajectories generally resembled more the clinical course of the last quarter.

Discussion

The visual trajectories reflected the descriptors of the clinical course of pain captured by weekly SMS measures on a group level and formed groups of patients that differed on symptoms and characteristics. However, there were large variations in symptoms and characteristics within, as well as overlap between, each visual trajectory. In particular, patients with mild pain seemed predisposed to recall bias. Although the visual trajectories and SMS-based classifications appear related, visual trajectories likely capture more elements of the pain experience than just the course of pain. Therefore, they cannot be seen as a proxy for SMS-tracking of pain over 1 year.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12998-022-00443-3.

The association between different outcome measures and prognostic factors in patients with neck pain: a cohort study

Background

Health domains like pain, disability, and health-related quality of life are commonly used outcomes for musculoskeletal disorders. Most prognostic studies include only one outcome, and it is unknown if prognostic factors and models may be generic across different outcomes. The objectives of this study were to examine the correlation among commonly used outcomes for neck pain (pain intensity, disability, and health-related quality of life) and to explore how the predictive performance of a prognostic model differs across commonly used outcomes.

Methods

We conducted an observational prospective cohort study with data from patients with neck pain aged 18–84 years consulting Norwegian chiropractors. We used three different outcomes: pain intensity (Numeric Pain Rating Scale), the Neck Disability Index (NDI), and health-related quality of Life (EQ-5D). We assessed associations between change in outcome scores at 12-weeks follow-up with Pearson’s correlation coefficient. We used multivariable linear regression models to explore differences in explained variance and relationship between predictors and outcomes.

Results

The study sample included 1313 patients and 941 (72%) completed follow-up at 12 weeks. The strongest correlation was between NDI and EQ-5D (r = 0.57) while the weakest correlation was between EQ-5D and pain intensity (r = 0.39). The correlation between NDI and pain intensity was moderate (r = 0.53) In the final regression models, the explained variance ranged from adjusted R² of 0.26 to 0.60, highest with NDI and lowest with pain intensity as outcome. The predictive contributions of the included predictors were similar across outcomes. Among the investigated predictors, pain patterns and the baseline measure of the corresponding outcome measure contributed the most to explained variance across all outcomes.

Conclusions

The highest correlation was found between NDI and EQ-5D and the lowest with pain intensity. The same prognostic model showed highest predictive performance with NDI as outcome and poorest with pain intensity as outcome. These results suggest that we need more knowledge on the reasons for the differences in predictive performance variation across outcomes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12891-022-05558-5.

The clinical course of neck pain: Are trajectory patterns stable over a 1-year period?

BACKGROUND

Recent studies with data-driven approaches have established common pain trajectories. It is uncertain whether these trajectory patterns are consistent over time, and if a shorter measurement period will provide accurate trajectories.

METHODS

We included 1,124 patients with non-specific neck pain in chiropractic practice. We classified patients into pre-defined trajectory patterns in each of four quarters of the follow-up year (persistent, episodic, and recovery) based on measures of pain intensity and frequency from weekly SMS. We explored the shifts between patterns and compared patients with stable and shifting patterns on baseline characteristics and clinical findings.

RESULTS

785 (70%) patients were in the same pattern in 1st and 4th quarters. Patients with episodic pattern in the 1st quarter shifted to other patterns more frequently than patients in the other patterns. A stable persistent pattern was associated with reduced function and higher scores on psychosocial factors. There was a decreased frequency of patients classified as persistent pattern (75% to 63%) and an increase of patients in recovery pattern (4% to 15%) throughout the four quarters. The frequency of patients classified as episodic remained relatively stable (21% to 24%).

CONCLUSIONS

We found an overall stability of the persistent pattern, and that episodic patterns have more potential for shifts. Shifts mostly occurred between patterns closest in pain variation. The deviation in pattern distribution compared with previous studies suggests that the duration of measurement periods has an impact on the results of the classification.

SIGNIFICANCE

Having persistent pain and having very minor pain is relatively stable over one year, while episodic pain has more potential for shifts. The duration of measurement periods appears to have an impact on the results of the classification. The given criteria resulted in a reduced frequency of episodic pattern due to shorter measurement periods. Our findings contribute to improved understanding and predicting NP using a combination of patient characteristics and trajectory patterns.

Machine learning approaches applied in spinal pain research

The purpose of this narrative review is to provide a critical reflection of how analytical machine learning approaches could provide the platform to harness variability of patient presentation to enhance clinical prediction. The review includes a summary of current knowledge on the physiological adaptations present in people with spinal pain. We discuss how contemporary evidence highlights the importance of not relying on single features when characterizing patients given the variability of physiological adaptations present in people with spinal pain. The advantages and disadvantages of current analytical strategies in contemporary basic science and epidemiological research are reviewed and we consider how analytical machine learning approaches could provide the platform to harness the variability of patient presentations to enhance clinical prediction of pain persistence or recurrence. We propose that machine learning techniques can be leveraged to translate a potentially heterogeneous set of variables into clinically useful information with the potential to enhance patient management.

Visual trajectory pattern as prognostic factors for neck pain

BACKGROUND

A novel approach capturing both temporal variation and pain intensity of neck pain is by visual trajectory patterns. Recently, both previous and expected visual trajectory patterns were identified as stronger predictors of outcome than traditional measures of pain history and psychological distress. Our aim was to examine patient characteristics within the various previous and expected patterns, relationship between the two patterns and predictive value of a variable combining the previous and expected patterns.

METHODS

Patients with neck pain (n = 932) consulting chiropractors were included. Baseline measures included pain intensity, disability, psychological variables and symptom history and expectations. Participants reported global perceived effect after 12 weeks. Analyses included descriptive statistics and logistic regression.

RESULTS

Pain intensity, disability, psychological and worse outcome expectations increased from a single pain episode to severe ongoing pain of previous and expected patterns. Having a severe pain history was associated with poor prognosis, particularly if combined with negative expectations. The variable combining previous and expected patterns had a discriminative ability similar to that of other predictors AUC = 0.64 (95% CI = 0.60-0-67) versus AUC = 0.66 (95% CI = 0.62-0.70). The model with highest discriminative ability was achieved when adding the combined patterns to other predictors AUC = 0.70 (95% CI = 0.66-0.73).

CONCLUSION

The study indicates that pain expectations are formed by pain history. The patients' expectations were similar to or more optimistic compared with their pain history. The prognostic ability of the model including a simplified combination of previous and expected patterns, together with a few other predictors, suggests that the trajectory patterns might have potential for clinical use.

SIGNIFICANCE

The dynamic nature of neck pain can be captured by visual illustrations of trajectory patterns. We report, that trajectory patterns of pain history and future expectations to some extent are related. The patterns also reflect a difference in severity assessed by higher degree of symptoms and distress. Moreover, the visual trajectory patterns predict outcome at 12-weeks. Since the patterns are easily applicable, they might have potential as a clinical tool.