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Yang F, Windsor JA, Fu DL. Optimizing prediction models for pancreatic fistula after pancreatectomy: Current status and future perspectives. World J Gastroenterol 2024; 30:1329-1345. [PMID: 38596504 PMCID: PMC11000089 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v30.i10.1329] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2023] [Revised: 01/15/2024] [Accepted: 02/25/2024] [Indexed: 03/14/2024] Open
Abstract
Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a frequent complication after pancreatectomy, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Optimizing prediction models for POPF has emerged as a critical focus in surgical research. Although over sixty models following pancreaticoduodenectomy, predominantly reliant on a variety of clinical, surgical, and radiological parameters, have been documented, their predictive accuracy remains suboptimal in external validation and across diverse populations. As models after distal pancreatectomy continue to be progressively reported, their external validation is eagerly anticipated. Conversely, POPF prediction after central pancreatectomy is in its nascent stage, warranting urgent need for further development and validation. The potential of machine learning and big data analytics offers promising prospects for enhancing the accuracy of prediction models by incorporating an extensive array of variables and optimizing algorithm performance. Moreover, there is potential for the development of personalized prediction models based on patient- or pancreas-specific factors and postoperative serum or drain fluid biomarkers to improve accuracy in identifying individuals at risk of POPF. In the future, prospective multicenter studies and the integration of novel imaging technologies, such as artificial intelligence-based radiomics, may further refine predictive models. Addressing these issues is anticipated to revolutionize risk stratification, clinical decision-making, and postoperative management in patients undergoing pancreatectomy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Feng Yang
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200040, China
| | - John A Windsor
- Surgical and Translational Research Centre, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland 1142, New Zealand
| | - De-Liang Fu
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200040, China
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Song Y, Zhang S. Serum Creatinine and Amylase in Drain to Predict Pancreatic Fistula Risk after Pancreatoduodenectomy. Dig Surg 2023; 40:205-215. [PMID: 37866358 PMCID: PMC10716868 DOI: 10.1159/000533869] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2023] [Accepted: 08/26/2023] [Indexed: 10/24/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The identification of patients with low risk of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) and postoperative hemorrhage (PPH) can guide drain removal after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). However, drain fluid amylase (DFA) ≤5,000 U/L on postoperative day (POD) 1 does not robustly predict the absence of CR-POPF. METHODS Consecutive patients undergoing PD at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between July 2018 and October 2021 were analyzed. Recursive partitioning analysis was used to classify patients into groups with different risks of CR-POPF and PPH. RESULTS Among 288 consecutive patients included, 99 patients (34.38%) developed CR-POPF (86 grade B and 13 grade C). Patients with CR-POPF had increased levels of preoperative creatinine (CRE) and POD1 CRE. The combination of POD1 CRE (>104 μmol/L or not) and POD1 DFA (>5,000 U/L or not) stratified patients into subgroups with the maximum difference in CR-POPF risk. The CR-POPF rates were 17.82% (36/202) in group A (POD1 CRE ≤104 μmol/L and POD1 DFA ≤5,000 U/L), 53.33% (8/15) in group B (POD1 CRE >104 μmol/L and POD1 DFA ≤5,000 U/L), and 77.46% (55/71) in group C (POD1 DFA >5,000 U/L). The PPH rates were 1.98% (4/202), 20.00% (3/15), and 19.72% (14/71) in groups A, B, and C, respectively. CONCLUSION Patients with POD1 DFA ≤5,000 U/L and POD1 CRE >104 μmol/L have a high risk of CR-POPF and may not benefit from early drain removal. Patients with POD1 DFA ≤5,000 U/L and POD1 CRE ≤104 μmol/L have low risk of CR-POPF and PPH.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunda Song
- State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou, China
- Department of Pancreatobiliary Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, China
| | - Subo Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou, China
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Alhulaili ZM, Linnemann RJ, Dascau L, Pleijhuis RG, Klaase JM. A Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis analysis to evaluate the quality of reporting of postoperative pancreatic fistula prediction models after pancreatoduodenectomy: A systematic review. Surgery 2023; 174:684-691. [PMID: 37296054 DOI: 10.1016/j.surg.2023.04.058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2022] [Revised: 03/06/2023] [Accepted: 04/27/2023] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Postoperative pancreatic fistula is a frequent and potentially lethal complication after pancreatoduodenectomy. Several models have been developed to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula risk. This study was performed to evaluate the quality of reporting of postoperative pancreatic fistula prediction models after pancreatoduodenectomy using the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) checklist that provides guidelines on reporting prediction models to enhance transparency and to help in the decision-making regarding the implementation of the appropriate risk models into clinical practice. METHODS Studies that described prediction models to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy were searched according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The TRIPOD checklist was used to evaluate the adherence rate. The area under the curve and other performance measures were extracted if reported. A quadrant matrix chart is created to plot the area under the curve against TRIPOD adherence rate to find models with a combination of above-average TRIPOD adherence and area under the curve. RESULTS In total, 52 predictive models were included (23 development, 15 external validation, 4 incremental value, and 10 development and external validation). No risk model achieved 100% adherence to the TRIPOD. The mean adherence rate was 65%. Most authors failed to report on missing data and actions to blind assessment of predictors. Thirteen models had an above-average performance for TRIPOD checklist adherence and area under the curve. CONCLUSION Although the average TRIPOD adherence rate for postoperative pancreatic fistula models after pancreatoduodenectomy was 65%, higher compared to other published models, it does not meet TRIPOD standards for transparency. This study identified 13 models that performed above average in TRIPOD adherence and area under the curve, which could be the appropriate models to be used in clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zahraa M Alhulaili
- Department of Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Surgery and Liver Transplantation, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Ralph J Linnemann
- Department of Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Surgery and Liver Transplantation, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Larisa Dascau
- Department of Surgery, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Rick G Pleijhuis
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Joost M Klaase
- Department of Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Surgery and Liver Transplantation, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, the Netherlands.
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Zhang B, Yuan Q, Li S, Xu Z, Chen X, Li L, Shang D. Risk factors of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Medicine (Baltimore) 2022; 101:e29757. [PMID: 35776984 PMCID: PMC9239615 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000029757] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) is a common and troublesome complication after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify the risk factors of CR-POPF after PD. METHODS We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases for studies related to risk factors of CR-POPF after PD. Odds ratios (ORs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were extracted from the included studies, then a meta-analysis was conducted. If necessary, sensitivity analysis would be performed by changing the effect model or excluding 1 study at a time. Publication bias was assessed by funnel plot and Begg test and Egger test. RESULTS A total of 27 studies with 24,740 patients were included, and CR-POPF occurred in 3843 patients (incidence = 17%, 95% CI: 16%-19%). Male (OR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.42-1.70), body mass index >25 kg/m2 (OR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.23-3.18), pancreatic duct diameter <3 mm (OR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.66-2.12), soft pancreatic texture (OR = 3.49, 95% CI: 2.61-4.67), and blood transfusion (OR = 3.10, 95% CI: 2.01-4.77) can significantly increase the risk of CR-POPF. Pancreatic adenocarcinoma (OR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.47-0.61), vascular resection (OR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.39-0.83), and preoperative chemoradiotherapy (OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.57-0.81) can significantly decrease the factor of CR-POPF. Diabetes mellitus was not statistically associated with CR-POPF (OR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.40-1.08). However, the analysis of body mass index, pancreatic texture, and diabetes mellitus had a high heterogeneity, then sensitivity analysis was performed, and the result after sensitivity analysis showed diabetes mellitus can significantly decrease the risk of CR-POPF. There was no significant publication bias in this meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS The current review assessed the effects of different factors on CR-POPF. This can provide a basis for the prevention and management of CR-POPF. Effective interventions targeting the above risk factors should be investigated in future studies for decreasing the occurrence of CR-POPF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Biao Zhang
- Department of General Surgery, Clinical Laboratory of Integrative Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
- Institute of Integrative Medicine, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
| | - Qihang Yuan
- Department of General Surgery, Clinical Laboratory of Integrative Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
- Institute of Integrative Medicine, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
| | - Shuang Li
- Department of General Surgery, Clinical Laboratory of Integrative Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
- Institute of Integrative Medicine, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
| | - Zhaohui Xu
- Department of Hernia and Colorectal Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
| | - Xu Chen
- Department of General Surgery, Clinical Laboratory of Integrative Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
- Institute of Integrative Medicine, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
| | - Lunxu Li
- Department of General Surgery, Clinical Laboratory of Integrative Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
- Institute of Integrative Medicine, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
| | - Dong Shang
- Department of General Surgery, Clinical Laboratory of Integrative Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
- Institute of Integrative Medicine, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
- *Correspondence: Dong Shang, Department of General Surgery, Clinical Laboratory of Integrative Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, 222 Zhongshan Road, Xigang District, Dalian 116011, Liaoning, China ()
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Zhao D, Chen S, Liu Y, Xu Z, Shen H, Zhang S, Li Y, Zhang H, Zou C, Ma X. Blood Urea Nitrogen-to-Albumin Ratio in Predicting Long-Term Mortality in Patients Following Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: An Analysis of the MIMIC-III Database. Front Surg 2022; 9:801708. [PMID: 35252328 PMCID: PMC8894887 DOI: 10.3389/fsurg.2022.801708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2021] [Accepted: 01/18/2022] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Background This study examined the role of blood urea nitrogen-to-albumin ratio (BAR) in predicting long-term mortality in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Methods In this retrospective cohort study, patients undergoing CABG were enrolled from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC III) database. Patients were divided into the three groups according to the optimal cutoff values of BAR determined by X-tile software. The survival curve was constructed by the Kaplan–Meier method and multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to explore the independent prognostic factors of 1- and 4-year mortality after CABG. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were calculated to estimate the accuracy of BAR in predicting the outcomes. Subgroup analyses were also carried out. Results A total of 1,462 patients at 4-year follow-up were included, of which 933, 293, and 236 patients were categorized into the group 1 (≤ 6.45 mg/g), group 2 (>6.45 and ≤ 10.23 mg/g), and group 3 (>10.23 mg/g), respectively. Non-survivors showed an increased level of BAR at both 1- (p < 0.001) and 4-year (p < 0.001) follow-up compared with the survivors. The patients with a higher BAR had a higher risk of 1- and 4-year mortality following CABG (33.05 vs. 14.33 vs. 5.14%, p < 0.001 and 52.97 vs. 30.72 vs. 13.08%, p < 0.001, respectively). Cox proportional hazards regression model suggested a higher BAR as an independent risk factor of 1-year mortality (HR 3.904; 95% CI 2.559–5.956; P < 0.001) and 4-year mortality (HR 2.895; 95% CI 2.138–3.921; P < 0.001) after adjusting for confounders. Besides, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed the better predictive ability of BAR compared to other grading scores at both 1- (0.7383, 95% CI: 0.6966–0.7800) and 4-year mortality (0.7189, 95% CI: 0.6872–0.7506). Subgroup analysis demonstrated no heterogeneous results of BAR in 4-year mortality in particular groups of patient. Conclusion This report provided evidence of an independent association between 1- and 4-year mortality after CABG and BAR. A higher BAR was associated with a higher risk of long-term mortality and could serve as a prognostic predictor in patients following CABG.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diming Zhao
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Shanghao Chen
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Yilin Liu
- Department of Ophthalmology, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Zhenqiang Xu
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, China
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Hechen Shen
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Shijie Zhang
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Yi Li
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Haizhou Zhang
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, China
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Chengwei Zou
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, China
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Xiaochun Ma
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, China
- *Correspondence: Xiaochun Ma
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Zhang Z, Chen L, Xu P, Hong Y. Predictive analytics with ensemble modeling in laparoscopic surgery: A technical note. LAPAROSCOPIC, ENDOSCOPIC AND ROBOTIC SURGERY 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.lers.2021.12.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
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Li B, Pu N, Chen Q, Mei Y, Wang D, Jin D, Wu W, Zhang L, Lou W. Comprehensive Diagnostic Nomogram for Predicting Clinically Relevant Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreatoduodenectomy. Front Oncol 2021; 11:717087. [PMID: 34277458 PMCID: PMC8281206 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2021.717087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2021] [Accepted: 06/17/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) remains a severe and challenging complication of pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). This study aimed to establish a novel postoperative nomogram-based diagnostic model for the early detection of CR-POPF in patients subjected to PD. METHODS Consecutive patients who underwent PD in Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University from December 2018 to October 2020 were retrospectively enrolled. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for CR-POPF. Then, a novel predictive nomogram was established accordingly. RESULTS Among the consecutive 176 patients who underwent PD, 37 (21.1%) patients developed CR-POPF. Through univariate and multivariate analyses, the drain amylase (P = 0.002), serum creatinine (P = 0.009), and serum C reactive protein (P = 0.045) at postoperative day 1 (POD1) as well as the neutrophil count (P = 0.025) and temperature (P = 0.025) at POD3 were identified as independent risk factors for CR-POPF. Based on this, a novel predictive nomogram containing these factors was constructed to predict the probability of CR-POPF after PD. The formulated nomogram showed better performance to detect CR-POPF after PD with a sensitivity of 0.784, specificity of 0.770, positive predictive value of 0.475, and negative predictive value of 0.930 when compared to other predictors. In addition, the predictive value of the nomogram was assessed by a concordance index of 0.814 (95% CI, 0.736-0.892), which was significantly higher than indicators alone. This was further validated and depicted by decision curve analysis and clinical impact curve. CONCLUSION This study established a diagnostic nomogram of postoperative objective parameters that can predict the development of CR-POPF after PD with a good discriminative ability and predictive accuracy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bo Li
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Department of General Surgery, Shangluo Central Hospital, Shaanxi, China
| | - Ning Pu
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Qiangda Chen
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yong Mei
- Department of General Surgery, Shangluo Central Hospital, Shaanxi, China
| | - Dansong Wang
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Dayong Jin
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Wenchuan Wu
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Lei Zhang
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Wenhui Lou
- Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
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