Bioclimatic zonation and potential distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in South Kivu Province, DR Congo

Habitat Suitability in High Andean Butterflies: The Role of Land Cover in the Occurrence and Conservation of Species

High Andean butterflies in northern South America are subject to landscape change processes. Our study used models to assess the habitat suitability of three Satyrinae species in the Upper Bogotá River Basin, Colombia. These three species include Pedaliodes polla (Thieme), Pedaliodes phaea (Hewitson), and Pedaliodes phaeina (Staudinger), the last two are endemic to Colombia. We used MaxEnt software to assess the habitat quality of these species, analyze the bioclimatic requirements that most influence them, and propose priority conservation areas. Our results indicated that, in most cases, the contribution of cover is more significant than 60%, so this variable determines the habitat capacity to support the species under study. We identified that the areas with suitable habitats are reduced with values less than or equal to 25% and are located in areas with a medium degree of intervention, which allows the species to occur. On the other hand, the climatic variables with the most significant contribution to the models were Temperature Seasonality and Precipitation of Driest Quarter (May-July). Conservation efforts must be focused on the most suitable areas, given the reduction in habitat for these species. Our research emphasizes the need to safeguard well-connected remnants of the high Andean forest and natural cover in agricultural matrices to counter the impact of agricultural expansion.

The distribution of covert microbial natural enemies of a globally invasive crop pest, fall armyworm, in Africa: Enemy release and spillover events

Invasive species pose a significant threat to biodiversity and agriculture world‐wide. Natural enemies play an important part in controlling pest populations, yet we understand very little about the presence and prevalence of natural enemies during the early invasion stages.

Microbial natural enemies of fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda are known in its native region, however, they have not yet been identified in Africa where fall armyworm has been an invasive crop pest since 2016. Larval samples were screened from Malawi, Rwanda, Kenya, Zambia, Sudan and Ghana for the presence of four different microbial natural enemies; two nucleopolyhedroviruses, Spodoptera frugiperda NPV (SfMNPV) and Spodoptera exempta NPV (SpexNPV); the fungal pathogen Metarhizium rileyi; and the bacterium Wolbachia. This study aimed to identify which microbial pathogens are present in invasive fall armyworm, and determine the geographical, meteorological and temporal variables that influence prevalence.

Within 3 years of arrival, fall armyworm was exposed to all four microbial natural enemies. SfMNPV probably arrived with fall armyworm from the Americas, but this is the first putative evidence of host spillover from Spodoptera exempta (African armyworm) to fall armyworm for the endemic pathogen SpexNPV and for Wolbachia. It is also the first confirmed incidence of M. rileyi infecting fall armyworm in Africa.

Natural enemies were localised, with variation being observed both nationally and temporally. The prevalence of SfMNPV (the most common natural enemy) was predominantly explained by variables associated with the weather; declining with increasing rainfall and increasing with temperature. However, virus prevalence also increased as the growing season progressed.

The infection of an invasive species with a natural enemy from its native range and novel pathogens specific to its new range has important consequences for understanding the population ecology of invasive species and insect–pathogen interactions. Additionally, while it is widely known that temporal and geographic factors affect insect populations, this study reveals that these are important in understanding the distribution of microbial natural enemies associated with invasive pests during the early stages of invasion, and provide baseline data for future studies.

Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (FAW), first invaded Africa in 2016 and has since become established in many areas across the continent where it poses a serious threat to food and nutrition security. We re-parameterized the existing CLIMEX model to assess the FAW global invasion threat, emphasizing the risk of transient and permanent population establishment in Africa under current and projected future climates, considering irrigation patterns. FAW can establish itself in almost all countries in eastern and central Africa and a large part of western Africa under the current climate. Climatic barriers, such as heat and dry stresses, may limit the spread of FAW to North and South Africa. Future projections suggest that FAW invasive range will retract from both northern and southern regions towards the equator. However, a large area in eastern and central Africa is projected to have an optimal climate for FAW persistence. These areas will serve as FAW 'hotspots' from where it may migrate to the north and south during favorable seasons and then pose an economic threat. Our projections can be used to identify countries at risk for permanent and transient FAW-population establishment and inform timely integrated pest management interventions under present and future climate in Africa.