Would changing the selection process for GP trainees stem the workforce crisis? A cohort study using multiple-imputation and simulation

New evidence on the validity of the selection methods for recruitment to general practice training: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Selection into UK-based GP training has used the Multi-Specialty Recruitment Assessment (MSRA) and a face-to-face selection centre (SC). The MSRA comprises of a situational judgement test and clinical problem-solving test. The SC was suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence is needed to guide national and international selection policy.

AIM

To evaluate the validity of GP training selection.

DESIGN & SETTING

A retrospective cohort study using data from UK-based national recruitment to GP training, from 2015-2021.

METHOD

Data were available for 32 215 GP training applicants. The ability of scores from the specialty selection process to predict subsequent performance in the Clinical Skills Assessment (CSA) of the Membership of the Royal College of General Practitioners examination was modelled using path analysis. The effect sizes for sex, professional family background, and world region of qualification were estimated.

RESULTS

All component scores of the selection process demonstrated statistically significant independent relationships with CSA performance (P<0.001), thus establishing their predictive validity. All were sensitive to demographic factors. The SC scores had the weakest relationship with future CSA performance. However, for candidates with MSRA scores below the lowest quartile, the relative contribution of the SC scores to predicting CSA performance was similar to that observed for MSRA components.

CONCLUSION

The MSRA has predictive validity in this context. Re-instituting an SC for those with relatively low MSRA scores should be considered. However, the relative costs and potential advantages and disadvantages should be carefully weighed.

The validity of the selection methods for recruitment to UK core psychiatry training: cohort study

AIMS AND METHOD

Selection into core psychiatry training in the UK uses a computer-delivered Multi-Specialty Recruitment Assessment (MSRA; a situational judgement and clinical problem-solving test) and, previously, a face-to-face Selection Centre. The Selection Centre assessments were suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to evaluate the validity of this selection process using data on 3510 psychiatry applicants. We modelled the ability of the selection scores to predict subsequent performance in the Clinical Assessment of Skills and Competencies (CASC). Sensitivity to demographic characteristics was also estimated.

RESULTS

All selection assessment scores demonstrated positive, statistically significant, independent relationships with CASC performance and were sensitive to demographic factors.

IMPLICATIONS

All selection components showed independent predictive validity. Re-instituting the Selection Centre assessments could be considered, although the costs, potential advantages and disadvantages should be weighed carefully.

Methods and Tools Used to Estimate the Shortages of Medical Staff in European Countries-Scoping Review

Healthcare workforce (HWF) shortages are the biggest challenges today in healthcare systems. Therefore, it is crucial to forecast the future needs of HWFs in order to plan accordingly. The purpose of this study was to identify, map, and synthesize the tools, methods, and procedures for measuring medical staff deficits in Europe. We used the Arksey and O'Malley scoping review methodology. Based on predefined criteria, 38 publications that were retrieved from multiple scientific databases, hand-searched on the internet, from relevant organizations, and scanned from references were considered. They were published between 2002 and 2022. There were 25 empirical studies, 6 theoretical papers, 5 reports, 1 literature review, and 1 guidebook. The majority estimated or measured shortages of physicians (14/38) and nurses (7/38) or looked at HWF generally (10/38). Various methods were used, including projections, estimations, predictions, simulation models, and surveys, which used tools such as special computer software or customized indicators, i.e., the Workload Indicators of Staffing Need method. Researchers estimated HWF shortages at both national and regional levels. Such projections and estimations were often based on demand, supply, and/or need. These methods and tools are not always suited to the needs of a country or medical facility, which is why they need to be further developed and tested.

The professional resilience of mid-career GPs in the UK: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

With a continued crisis of increasing workload and reduced workforce in general practice, supporting resilience is a key strategy for sustaining the profession into the future.

AIM

How do GPs perceive professional resilience, and what workplace factors influence it?

DESIGN AND SETTING

A UK-based qualitative study of the perspectives of GPs currently practicing in mainly urban locations across the UK with ≥5 years' experience after completion of GP training.

METHOD

Participants were recruited using convenience sampling, which included social media forums, and underwent semi-structured interviews undertaken in May and June 2020 (n = 27). Data were analysed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Participants offered definitions of and influences on resilience that largely fit with existing research, but in addition, may result in the perception that GPs are obstructive, or that resilience may be a 'surface act'. GPs agree that the current focus on methods of improving resilience does support them, but there is significantly more to be done in this field. Social media activity aiming at GP support may be counterproductive. Reduction of clinical working hours is a common strategy to improve resilience.

CONCLUSION

That GPs feel to improve resilience they need to work fewer clinical hours may have huge implications for a workforce already in crisis, and ultimately, for the health care of the UK population. Urgent research is needed to formulate a bespoke assessment for measuring GP resilience to assess potential interventions, and to identify GPs at risk of mental ill-health or leaving the profession.

Exploring UK medical school differences: the MedDifs study of selection, teaching, student and F1 perceptions, postgraduate outcomes and fitness to practise

BACKGROUND

Medical schools differ, particularly in their teaching, but it is unclear whether such differences matter, although influential claims are often made. The Medical School Differences (MedDifs) study brings together a wide range of measures of UK medical schools, including postgraduate performance, fitness to practise issues, specialty choice, preparedness, satisfaction, teaching styles, entry criteria and institutional factors.

METHOD

Aggregated data were collected for 50 measures across 29 UK medical schools. Data include institutional history (e.g. rate of production of hospital and GP specialists in the past), curricular influences (e.g. PBL schools, spend per student, staff-student ratio), selection measures (e.g. entry grades), teaching and assessment (e.g. traditional vs PBL, specialty teaching, self-regulated learning), student satisfaction, Foundation selection scores, Foundation satisfaction, postgraduate examination performance and fitness to practise (postgraduate progression, GMC sanctions). Six specialties (General Practice, Psychiatry, Anaesthetics, Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Internal Medicine, Surgery) were examined in more detail.

RESULTS

Medical school differences are stable across time (median alpha = 0.835). The 50 measures were highly correlated, 395 (32.2%) of 1225 correlations being significant with p < 0.05, and 201 (16.4%) reached a Tukey-adjusted criterion of p < 0.0025. Problem-based learning (PBL) schools differ on many measures, including lower performance on postgraduate assessments. While these are in part explained by lower entry grades, a surprising finding is that schools such as PBL schools which reported greater student satisfaction with feedback also showed lower performance at postgraduate examinations. More medical school teaching of psychiatry, surgery and anaesthetics did not result in more specialist trainees. Schools that taught more general practice did have more graduates entering GP training, but those graduates performed less well in MRCGP examinations, the negative correlation resulting from numbers of GP trainees and exam outcomes being affected both by non-traditional teaching and by greater historical production of GPs. Postgraduate exam outcomes were also higher in schools with more self-regulated learning, but lower in larger medical schools. A path model for 29 measures found a complex causal nexus, most measures causing or being caused by other measures. Postgraduate exam performance was influenced by earlier attainment, at entry to Foundation and entry to medical school (the so-called academic backbone), and by self-regulated learning. Foundation measures of satisfaction, including preparedness, had no subsequent influence on outcomes. Fitness to practise issues were more frequent in schools producing more male graduates and more GPs.

CONCLUSIONS

Medical schools differ in large numbers of ways that are causally interconnected. Differences between schools in postgraduate examination performance, training problems and GMC sanctions have important implications for the quality of patient care and patient safety.

Using recruitment and selection to build a primary care workforce for the future

Recruitment and selection are critical components of human resource management. They influence both the quantity and quality of the healthcare workforce. In this article, we use two different examples of primary care workers, General Practitioners in the UK and Community Health Workers in low- and middle- income countries, to illustrate how recruitment and selection are, and could be, used to enhance the primary care workforce in each setting. Both recruitment and selection can be costly, so when funding is limited, decisions on how to spend the human resources budget must be made. It could be argued that human resource management should focus on recruitment in a seller's market (an insufficient supply of applicants) and on selection in a buyer's market (sufficient applicants but concerns about their quality). We use this article to examine recruitment and selection in each type of market and highlight the interactions between these two human resource management decisions. Recruitment and selection, we argue, must be considered in both types of market; particularly in sectors where workers' labour impacts upon population health. We note the paucity of high-quality research in recruitment and selection for primary care and the need for rigorous study designs such as randomised trials.