Is pathology necessary to predict mortality among men with prostate-cancer?

Models predicting survival to guide treatment decision-making in newly diagnosed primary non-metastatic prostate cancer: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Men diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer require standardised and robust long-term prognostic information to help them decide on management. Most currently-used tools use short-term and surrogate outcomes. We explored the evidence base in the literature on available pre-treatment, prognostic models built around long-term survival and assess the accuracy, generalisability and clinical availability of these models.

DESIGN

Systematic literature review, pre-specified and registered on PROSPERO (CRD42018086394).

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, Embase and The Cochrane Library were searched from January 2000 through February 2018, using previously-tested search terms.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Inclusion required a multivariable model prognostic model for non-metastatic prostate cancer, using long-term survival data (defined as ≥5 years), which was not treatment-specific and usable at the point of diagnosis.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Title, abstract and full-text screening were sequentially performed by three reviewers. Data extraction was performed for items in the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies checklist. Individual studies were assessed using the new Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool.

RESULTS

Database searches yielded 6581 studies after deduplication. Twelve studies were included in the final review. Nine were model development studies using data from over 231 888 men. However, only six of the nine studies included any conservatively managed cases and only three of the nine included treatment as a predictor variable. Every included study had at least one parameter for which there was high risk of bias, with failure to report accuracy, and inadequate reporting of missing data common failings. Three external validation studies were included, reporting two available models: The University of California San Francisco (UCSF) Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score and the Cambridge Prognostic Groups. Neither included treatment effect, and both had potential flaws in design, but represent the most robust and usable prognostic models currently available.

CONCLUSION

Few long-term prognostic models exist to inform decision-making at diagnosis of non-metastatic prostate cancer. Improved models are required to inform management and avoid undertreatment and overtreatment of non-metastatic prostate cancer.

Medical Emergencies in Farmers

BACKGROUND

Agricultural work involves hazards that may harm long-term well-being. We evaluated the risk of long-term disability and death for agricultural workers compared to construction workers with similar demographics. We hypothesized that delays to emergency care and subsequent long-term disability following injury might be worse for agricultural workers compared to those injured in construction.

METHODS

We evaluated all adults severely injured on farms or on construction sites in Ontario, Canada, between April 1, 2009, and March 31, 2012, according to the Ontario Trauma Registry. We excluded individuals living outside of the province, those missing a valid health card number, or youth less than 17 years old. Our primary outcome was death or the subsequent application for disability support.

RESULTS

In total, 353 patients were injured on a farm or construction site during the study period. Delays to emergency care exceeding 12 hours were more frequent for agricultural workers compared to construction workers (43% vs 23%, P <.001). After a 5-year follow-up, agricultural workers had a death or disability rate marginally higher than construction workers (23% vs 14%, P = .068), equivalent to a hazard ratio of 1.62 that was marginally statistically significant (95% confidence interval 0.96-2.75, P = .072). The risk of death and disability was greatest for patients who had the longest delays to emergency care.

INTERPRETATION

Agricultural workers experience a substantial delay in receiving emergency care and a marginally higher risk of death or disability in the years following injury compared to construction workers.