Detecting change in comparison to peers in NHS prescribing data: a novel application of cumulative sum methodology

Relevance of physicochemical properties and functional pharmacology data to predict the clinical safety profile of direct oral anticoagulants

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have rapidly become the drug class of choice for anticoagulation therapy in secondary care. It is known that gastrointestinal hemorrhage are potential side effects of the DOAC drug class. In this study we have investigated the relevance of molecular structure and on/off-target pharmacology as a predictor of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) for the DOAC drug class. Use of the Reaxys MedChem module allowed for data mining of all possible reported off-target effects of the DOAC class members. For the first time, the MHRA Yellow card database in combination with prescribing rates in the United Kingdom (data for n = 30 566 936 DOAC Rx (up to 2017) and ADR data n = 22 275 (up to 2018)) were used for our data comparison of DOACs. From the underlying reported data, we were able to rank the DOACs in terms of the likely adverse events we would expect to observe. We identified potential risks of ADRs based on the DOACs pharmacology including the expected GI hemorrhage, but also the unexpected risk of stroke, pulmonary embolism and kidney injury. Statistically significant (P < .001) differences were found between all DOACs and their total number of ADRs. Although the risks are small, strong statistical correlation between observed pharmacology and national ADR data is observed in three out of the five areas of concern.

Measuring the Impact of an Open Web-Based Prescribing Data Analysis Service on Clinical Practice: Cohort Study on NHS England Data

Background

OpenPrescribing is a freely accessible service that enables any user to view and analyze the National Health Service (NHS) primary care prescribing data at the level of individual practices. This tool is intended to improve the quality, safety, and cost-effectiveness of prescribing.

Objective

We aimed to measure the impact of OpenPrescribing being viewed on subsequent prescribing.

Methods

Having preregistered our protocol and code, we measured three different metrics of prescribing quality (mean percentile across 34 existing OpenPrescribing quality measures, available “price-per-unit” savings, and total “low-priority prescribing” spend) to see whether they changed after the viewing of Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) and practice pages. We also measured whether practices whose data were viewed on OpenPrescribing differed in prescribing, prior to viewing, compared with those who were not. We used fixed-effects and between-effects linear panel regression to isolate change over time and differences between practices, respectively. We adjusted for the month of prescribing in the fixed-effects model to remove underlying trends in outcome measures.

Results

We found a reduction in available price-per-unit savings for both practices and CCGs after their pages were viewed. The saving was greater at practice level (−£40.42 per thousand patients per month; 95% CI −54.04 to −26.81) than at CCG level (−£14.70 per thousand patients per month; 95% CI −25.56 to −3.84). We estimate a total saving since launch of £243 thosand at practice level and £1.47 million at CCG level between the feature launch and end of follow-up (August to November 2017) among practices viewed. If the observed savings from practices viewed were extrapolated to all practices, this would generate £26.8 million in annual savings for the NHS, approximately 20% of the total possible savings from this method. The other two measures were not different after CCGs or practices were viewed. Practices that were viewed had worse prescribing quality scores overall prior to viewing.

Conclusions

We found a positive impact from the use of OpenPrescribing, specifically for the class of savings opportunities that can only be identified by using this tool. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to conduct a robust analysis of the impact of such a Web-based service on clinical practice.