Epistasis and evolution: recent advances and an outlook for prediction

Environment-independent distribution of mutational effects emerges from microscopic epistasis

Predicting how new mutations alter phenotypes is difficult because mutational effects vary across genotypes and environments. Recently discovered global epistasis, where the fitness effects of mutations scale with the fitness of the background genotype, can improve predictions, but how the environment modulates this scaling is unknown. We measured the fitness effects of ~100 insertion mutations in 42 strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae in six laboratory environments and found that the global-epistasis scaling is nearly invariant across environments. Instead, the environment tunes one global parameter, the background fitness at which most mutations switch sign. As a consequence, the distribution of mutational effects is predictable across genotypes and environments. Our results suggest that the effective dimensionality of genotype-to-phenotype maps across environments is surprisingly low.

Global epistasis and the emergence of function in microbial consortia

The many functions of microbial communities emerge from a complex web of interactions between organisms and their environment. This poses a significant obstacle to engineering microbial consortia, hindering our ability to harness the potential of microorganisms for biotechnological applications. In this study, we demonstrate that the collective effect of ecological interactions between microbes in a community can be captured by simple statistical models that predict how adding a new species to a community will affect its function. These predictive models mirror the patterns of global epistasis reported in genetics, and they can be quantitatively interpreted in terms of pairwise interactions between community members. Our results illuminate an unexplored path to quantitatively predicting the function of microbial consortia from their composition, paving the way to optimizing desirable community properties and bringing the tasks of predicting biological function at the genetic, organismal, and ecological scales under the same quantitative formalism.

Non-Poissonian Bursts in the Arrival of Phenotypic Variation Can Strongly Affect the Dynamics of Adaptation

Modeling the rate at which adaptive phenotypes appear in a population is a key to predicting evolutionary processes. Given random mutations, should this rate be modeled by a simple Poisson process, or is a more complex dynamics needed? Here we use analytic calculations and simulations of evolving populations on explicit genotype-phenotype maps to show that the introduction of novel phenotypes can be "bursty" or overdispersed. In other words, a novel phenotype either appears multiple times in quick succession or not at all for many generations. These bursts are fundamentally caused by statistical fluctuations and other structure in the map from genotypes to phenotypes. Their strength depends on population parameters, being highest for "monomorphic" populations with low mutation rates. They can also be enhanced by additional inhomogeneities in the mapping from genotypes to phenotypes. We mainly investigate the effect of bursts using the well-studied genotype-phenotype map for RNA secondary structure, but find similar behavior in a lattice protein model and in Richard Dawkins's biomorphs model of morphological development. Bursts can profoundly affect adaptive dynamics. Most notably, they imply that fitness differences play a smaller role in determining which phenotype fixes than would be the case for a Poisson process without bursts.

Evolutionary rewiring of the dynamic network underpinning allosteric epistasis in NS1 of influenza A virus

Viral proteins frequently mutate to evade or antagonize host innate immune responses, yet the impact of these mutations on the molecular energy landscape remains unclear. Epistasis, the intramolecular communications between mutations, often renders the combined mutational effects unpredictable. Nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) is a major virulence factor of the influenza A virus (IAV) that activates host PI3K by binding to its p85β subunit. Here, we present the deep analysis for the impact of evolutionary mutations in NS1 that emerged between the 1918 pandemic IAV strain and its descendant PR8 strain. Our analysis reveal how the mutations rewired inter-residue communications which underlies long-range allosteric and epistatic networks in NS1. Our findings show that PR8 NS1 binds to p85β with approximately 10-fold greater affinity than 1918 NS1 due to allosteric mutational effects. Notably, these mutations also exhibited long-range epistatic effects. NMR chemical shift perturbation and methyl-axis order parameter analyses revealed that the mutations induced long-range structural and dynamic changes in PR8 NS1, enhancing its affinity to p85β. Complementary MD simulations and graph-based network analysis uncover how these mutations rewire dynamic residue interaction networks, which underlies the long-range epistasis and allosteric effects on p85β-binding affinity. Significantly, we find that conformational dynamics of residues with high betweenness centrality play a crucial role in communications between network communities and are highly conserved across influenza A virus evolution. These findings advance our mechanistic understanding of the allosteric and epistatic communications between distant residues and provides insight into their role in the molecular evolution of NS1.

Unpredictability of the Fitness Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance Mutations Across Environments in Escherichia coli

The evolution of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in bacteria is a major public health concern, and antibiotic restriction is often implemented to reduce the spread of resistance. These measures rely on the existence of deleterious fitness effects (i.e. costs) imposed by AMR mutations during growth in the absence of antibiotics. According to this assumption, resistant strains will be outcompeted by susceptible strains that do not pay the cost during the period of restriction. The fitness effects of AMR mutations are generally studied in laboratory reference strains grown in standard growth environments; however, the genetic and environmental context can influence the magnitude and direction of a mutation's fitness effects. In this study, we measure how three sources of variation impact the fitness effects of Escherichia coli AMR mutations: the type of resistance mutation, the genetic background of the host, and the growth environment. We demonstrate that while AMR mutations are generally costly in antibiotic-free environments, their fitness effects vary widely and depend on complex interactions between the mutation, genetic background, and environment. We test the ability of the Rough Mount Fuji fitness landscape model to reproduce the empirical data in simulation. We identify model parameters that reasonably capture the variation in fitness effects due to genetic variation. However, the model fails to accommodate the observed variation when considering multiple growth environments. Overall, this study reveals a wealth of variation in the fitness effects of resistance mutations owing to genetic background and environmental conditions, which will ultimately impact their persistence in natural populations.

Responses to commentaries on "The gene: An appraisal"

The central conclusions of "The Gene: An Appraisal" are that genetic variance does not underpin biological evolution, and, therefore, that genes are not Mendel's units of inheritance. In this response, I will address the criticisms I have received via commentaries on that paper by defending the following statements: 1. Epistasis does not explain the power-law fitness profile of the Long-Term Evolution Experiment (LTEE). The data from the evolution of natural systems displays the power-law form ubiquitously. Epistasis plays no role in evolution. 2. The common characteristics of living things (natural systems) are described by the principle of least action in de Maupertuis's original form, which is synonymous with the 2nd law of thermodynamics and Newton's 2nd law of motion in its complete form, i.e., F = dp/dt. Organisms strive to achieve free energy balance with their environments. 3. Based on an appraisal of the scientific environment between 1880 and 1911, I conclude that Johannsen's genotype conception was perhaps, the only option available to him. 4. The power-law fitness profile of the LTEE falsifies Fisher's Genetical Theory of Natural Selection, Johannsen's genotype conception, and the idea that 'Darwinian evolution' is an exception to the generic thermodynamic process of evolution in natural systems. 5. The use of the technique of genome-wide association to identify the causes and the likelihoods of inherited common diseases and behavioural traits is a 'wild goose chase' because genes are not the units of inheritance.

Convergent genetic adaptation of Escherichia coli in minimal media leads to pleiotropic divergence

Adaptation in an environment can either be beneficial, neutral or disadvantageous in another. To test the genetic basis of pleiotropic behaviour, we evolved six lines of E. coli independently in environments where glucose and galactose were the sole carbon sources, for 300 generations. All six lines in each environment exhibit convergent adaptation in the environment in which they were evolved. However, pleiotropic behaviour was observed in several environmental contexts, including other carbon environments. Genome sequencing reveals that mutations in global regulators rpoB and rpoC cause this pleiotropy. We report three new alleles of the rpoB gene, and one new allele of the rpoC gene. The novel rpoB alleles confer resistance to Rifampicin, and alter motility. Our results show how single nucleotide changes in the process of adaptation in minimal media can lead to wide-scale pleiotropy, resulting in changes in traits that are not under direct selection.

Correlated Allele Frequency Changes Reveal Clonal Structure and Selection in Temporal Genetic Data

In evolving populations where the rate of beneficial mutations is large, subpopulations of individuals with competing beneficial mutations can be maintained over long times. Evolution with this kind of clonal structure is commonly observed in a wide range of microbial and viral populations. However, it can be difficult to completely resolve clonal dynamics in data. This is due to limited read lengths in high-throughput sequencing methods, which are often insufficient to directly measure linkage disequilibrium or determine clonal structure. Here, we develop a method to infer clonal structure using correlated allele frequency changes in time-series sequence data. Simulations show that our method recovers true, underlying clonal structures when they are known and accurately estimate linkage disequilibrium. This information can then be combined with other inference methods to improve estimates of the fitness effects of individual mutations. Applications to data suggest novel clonal structures in an E. coli long-term evolution experiment, and yield improved predictions of the effects of mutations on bacterial fitness and antibiotic resistance. Moreover, our method is computationally efficient, requiring orders of magnitude less run time for large data sets than existing methods. Overall, our method provides a powerful tool to infer clonal structures from data sets where only allele frequencies are available, which can also improve downstream analyses.

Global epistasis in plasmid-mediated antimicrobial resistance

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in bacteria is a major public health threat and conjugative plasmids play a key role in the dissemination of AMR genes among bacterial pathogens. Interestingly, the association between AMR plasmids and pathogens is not random and certain associations spread successfully at a global scale. The burst of genome sequencing has increased the resolution of epidemiological programs, broadening our understanding of plasmid distribution in bacterial populations. Despite the immense value of these studies, our ability to predict future plasmid-bacteria associations remains limited. Numerous empirical studies have recently reported systematic patterns in genetic interactions that enable predictability, in a phenomenon known as global epistasis. In this perspective, we argue that global epistasis patterns hold the potential to predict interactions between plasmids and bacterial genomes, thereby facilitating the prediction of future successful associations. To assess the validity of this idea, we use previously published data to identify global epistasis patterns in clinically relevant plasmid-bacteria associations. Furthermore, using simple mechanistic models of antibiotic resistance, we illustrate how global epistasis patterns may allow us to generate new hypotheses on the mechanisms associated with successful plasmid-bacteria associations. Collectively, we aim at illustrating the relevance of exploring global epistasis in the context of plasmid biology.

Reducing Epistasis and Pleiotropy Can Avoid the Survival of the Flattest Tragedy

This study investigates whether reducing epistasis and pleiotropy enhances mutational robustness in evolutionary adaptation, utilizing an indirect encoded model within the "survival of the flattest" (SoF) fitness landscape. By simulating genetic variations and their phenotypic consequences, we explore organisms' adaptive mechanisms to maintain positions on higher, narrower evolutionary peaks amidst environmental and genetic pressures. Our results reveal that organisms can indeed sustain their advantageous positions by minimizing the complexity of genetic interactions-specifically, by reducing the levels of epistasis and pleiotropy. This finding suggests a counterintuitive strategy for evolutionary stability: simpler genetic architectures, characterized by fewer gene interactions and multifunctional genes, confer a survival advantage by enhancing mutational robustness. This study contributes to our understanding of the genetic underpinnings of adaptability and robustness, challenging traditional views that equate complexity with fitness in dynamic environments.

The simplicity of protein sequence-function relationships

How complicated is the genetic architecture of proteins - the set of causal effects by which sequence determines function? High-order epistatic interactions among residues are thought to be pervasive, making a protein's function difficult to predict or understand from its sequence. Most studies, however, used methods that overestimate epistasis, because they analyze genetic architecture relative to a designated reference sequence - causing measurement noise and small local idiosyncrasies to propagate into pervasive high-order interactions - or have not effectively accounted for global nonlinearity in the sequence-function relationship. Here we present a new reference-free method that jointly estimates global nonlinearity and specific epistatic interactions across a protein's entire genotype-phenotype map. This method yields a maximally efficient explanation of a protein's genetic architecture and is more robust than existing methods to measurement noise, partial sampling, and model misspecification. We reanalyze 20 combinatorial mutagenesis experiments from a diverse set of proteins and find that additive and pairwise effects, along with a simple nonlinearity to account for limited dynamic range, explain a median of 96% of total variance in measured phenotypes (and >92% in every case). Only a tiny fraction of genotypes are strongly affected by third- or higher-order epistasis. Genetic architecture is also sparse: the number of terms required to explain the vast majority of variance is smaller than the number of genotypes by many orders of magnitude. The sequence-function relationship in most proteins is therefore far simpler than previously thought, opening the way for new and tractable approaches to characterize it.

Higher-order epistasis within Pol II trigger loop haplotypes

RNA polymerase II (Pol II) has a highly conserved domain, the trigger loop (TL), that controls transcription fidelity and speed. We previously probed pairwise genetic interactions between residues within and surrounding the TL and identified widespread incompatibility between TLs of different species when placed in the Saccharomyces cerevisiae Pol II context, indicating epistasis between the TL and its surrounding context. We sought to understand the nature of this incompatibility and probe higher order epistasis internal to the TL. We have employed deep mutational scanning with selected natural TL variants ("haplotypes"), and all possible intermediate substitution combinations between them and the yeast Pol II TL. We identified both positive and negative higher-order residue interactions within example TL haplotypes. Intricate higher-order epistasis formed by TL residues was sometimes only apparent from analysis of intermediate genotypes, emphasizing complexity of epistatic interactions. Furthermore, we distinguished TL substitutions with distinct classes of epistatic patterns, suggesting specific TL residues that potentially influence TL evolution. Our examples of complex residue interactions suggest possible pathways for epistasis to facilitate Pol II evolution.

Environmental modulation of global epistasis in a drug resistance fitness landscape

Interactions between mutations (epistasis) can add substantial complexity to genotype-phenotype maps, hampering our ability to predict evolution. Yet, recent studies have shown that the fitness effect of a mutation can often be predicted from the fitness of its genetic background using simple, linear relationships. This phenomenon, termed global epistasis, has been leveraged to reconstruct fitness landscapes and infer adaptive trajectories in a wide variety of contexts. However, little attention has been paid to how patterns of global epistasis may be affected by environmental variation, despite this variation frequently being a major driver of evolution. This is particularly relevant for the evolution of drug resistance, where antimicrobial drugs may change the environment faced by pathogens and shape their adaptive trajectories in ways that can be difficult to predict. By analyzing a fitness landscape of four mutations in a gene encoding an essential enzyme of P. falciparum (a parasite cause of malaria), here we show that patterns of global epistasis can be strongly modulated by the concentration of a drug in the environment. Expanding on previous theoretical results, we demonstrate that this modulation can be quantitatively explained by how specific gene-by-gene interactions are modified by drug dose. Importantly, our results highlight the need to incorporate potential environmental variation into the global epistasis framework in order to predict adaptation in dynamic environments.

A pleiotropic-epistatic entangelement model of drug response

Because drug response is multifactorial, graph models are uniquely powerful for comprehending its genetic architecture. We deconstruct drug response into many different and interdependent sub-traits, with each sub-trait controlled by multiple genes that act and interact in a complicated manner. The outcome of drug response is the consequence of multileveled intertwined interactions between pleiotropic effects and epistatic effects. Here, we propose a general statistical physics framework to chart the 3D geometric network that codes how epistasis pleiotropically influences a complete set of sub-traits to shape body-drug interactions. This model can dissect the topological architecture of epistatically induced pleiotropic networks (EiPN) and pleiotropically influenced epistatic networks (PiEN). We analyze and interpret the practical implications of the pleiotropic-epistatic entanglement model for pharmacogenomic studies.