The potential to expand antiretroviral therapy by improving health facility efficiency: evidence from Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia

Fiscal space for the immunisation program in Zambia- an efficiency analysis approach

OBJECTIVE

The immunisation programme in Zambia remains one of the most effective public health programmes. Its financial sustainability is, however, uncertain. Using administrative data on immunisation coverage rate, vaccine utilisation, the number of health facilities and human resources, expenditure on health promotion, and the provision of outreach services from 24 districts, we used Data Envelopment Analysis to determine the level of technical efficiency in the provision of immunisation services. Based on our calculated levels of technical efficiency, we determined the available fiscal space for immunisation.

RESULTS

Out of the 24 districts in our sample, 9 (38%) were technically inefficient in the provision of immunisation services. The average efficiency score, however, was quite high, at 0.92 (CRS technology) and 0.95 (VRS technology). Based on the calculated level of technical efficiency, we estimated that an improvement in technical efficiency can save enough vaccine doses to supply between 5 and 14 additional districts. The challenge, however, lies in identifying and correcting for the sources of technical inefficiency.

The state and significant drivers of health systems efficiency in Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Low-and-middle-income countries, especially in Africa, lack the capacity to adequately invest in health systems to attain universal health coverage (UHC). As such, countries must improve efficiency and provide more services within the available resources. This systematic review synthesised evidence on the efficiency of health systems in the African region and its drivers.

Methods

We conducted a systematic literature review guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 statement. Related studies were grouped and meta-analysed, while others were descriptively analysed. We employed a qualitative content synthesis for synthesising the drivers of efficiency.

Results

Overall, 39 studies met a predetermined inclusion criterion and were included from a possible 4 609 records retrieved through a rigorous search and selection process. Using a random effects restricted maximum likelihood method, the pooled efficiency score for the Africa region was estimated to be 0.77, implying that on the flip side, health system inefficiency across countries in the African region was approximately 23%. Across 22 studies that used data envelopment analysis to examine efficiency at the level of health facilities and sub-national entities, the efficiency level was 0.67. Facility-level studies tended to estimate low levels of efficiency compared to health system-level studies. Across the 39 studies, 21 significant drivers of inefficiency were reported, including population density of the catchment area, governance, health facility ownership, health facility staff density, national economic status, type of health facility, education index, hospital size and bed occupancy rate.

Conclusion

With approximately 23% of the inefficiency of health systems in Africa, improving efficiency alone will yield an average of 34% improvement in resource availability, assuming all countries are performing similarly to the frontier countries. However, with the low level of health expenditure per capita in Africa, the efficiency gains alone will be insufficient to meet the minimum funding requirement for UHC.

Registration

PROSPERO: CRD42022318122.

Willingness to pay for community delivery of antiretroviral treatment in urban Tanzania: a cross-sectional survey

Community health worker (CHW)-led community delivery of HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) could increase ART coverage and decongest healthcare facilities. It is unknown how much patients would be willing to pay to receive ART at home and, thus, whether ART community delivery could be self-financing. Set in Dar es Salaam, this study aimed to determine patients’ willingness to pay (WTP) for CHW-led ART community delivery. We sampled ART patients living in the neighbourhoods surrounding each of 48 public-sector healthcare facilities in Dar es Salaam. We asked participants (N = 1799) whether they (1) preferred ART community delivery over standard facility-based care, (2) would be willing to pay for ART community delivery and (3) would be willing to pay each of an incrementally increasing range of prices for the service. 45.0% (810/1799; 95% CI: 42.7—47.3) of participants preferred ART community delivery over standard facility-based care and 51.5% (417/810; 95% CI: 48.1—55.0) of these respondents were willing to pay for ART community delivery. Among those willing to pay, the mean and median amount that participants were willing to pay for one ART community delivery that provides a 2-months’ supply of antiretroviral drugs was 3.61 purchasing-power-parity-adjusted dollars (PPP$) (95% CI: 2.96–4.26) and 1.27 PPP$ (IQR: 1.27–2.12), respectively. An important limitation of this study is that participants all resided in neighbourhoods within the catchment area of the healthcare facility at which they were interviewed and, thus, may incur less costs to attend standard facility-based ART care than other ART patients in Dar es Salaam. While there appears to be a substantial WTP, patient payments would only constitute a minority of the costs of implementing ART community delivery. Thus, major co-financing from governments or donors would likely be required.

Performance assessment of the county healthcare systems in Kenya: a mixed-methods analysis

INTRODUCTION

A well performing public healthcare system is necessary for Kenya to continue progress towards universal health coverage (UHC). Identifying actionable measures to improve the performance of the public healthcare system is critical to progress towards UHC. We aimed to measure and compare the performance of Kenya's public healthcare system at the county level and explore remediable drivers of poor healthcare system performance.

METHODS

Using administrative data from fiscal year 2014/2015 through fiscal year 2017/2018, we measured the technical efficiency of 47 county-level public healthcare systems in Kenya using stochastic frontier analysis. We then regressed the technical efficiency measure against a set of explanatory variables to examine drivers of efficiency. Additionally, in selected counties, we analysed surveys and focus group discussions to qualitatively understand factors affecting performance.

RESULTS

The median technical efficiency of county public healthcare systems was 84% in fiscal year 2017/2018 (with an IQR of 79% to 90%). Across the four fiscal years of data, 27 out of the 47 Kenyan counties had a declining technical efficiency score. Our regression analysis indicated that impediments to the flow of funding-measured by the budget absorption rate which is the ratio between funds spent and funds released-were significantly related to poor healthcare system performance. Our analysis of interviews and surveys yielded a similar conclusion as nearly 50% of respondents indicated issues stemming from poor budget absorption were significant drivers of poor healthcare system performance.

CONCLUSION

Public healthcare systems at the county-level in Kenya general performed well; however, addressing delays in the flow of funding is a concrete step to improve healthcare system performance. As Kenya-and other countries-provides additional funding to meet their UHC goals, establishing a strong and robust public financial management system is critical to ensure that the benefits of UHC are realised.

Efficiency, quality, and management practices in health facilities providing outpatient HIV services in Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa and Zambia

Few studies have assessed the efficiency and quality of HIV services in low-resource settings or considered the factors that determine both performance dimensions. To provide insights on the performance of outpatient HIV prevention units, we used benchmarking methods to identify best-practices in terms of technical efficiency and process quality and uncover management practices with the potential to improve efficiency and quality. We used data collected in 338 facilities in Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, and Zambia. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used to estimate technical efficiency. Process quality was estimated using data from medical vignettes. We mapped the relationship between efficiency and quality scores and studied the managerial determinants of best performance in terms of both efficiency and quality. We also explored the relationship between management factors and efficiency and quality independently. We found levels of both technical efficiency and process quality to be low, though there was substantial variation across countries. One third of facilities were mapped in the best-performing group with above-median efficiency and above-median quality. Several management practices were associated with best performance in terms of both efficiency and quality. When considering efficiency and quality independently, the patterns of associations between management practices and the two performance dimensions were not necessarily the same. One management characteristic was associated with best performance in terms of efficiency and quality and also positively associated with efficiency and quality independently: number of supervision visits to HIV units.

Assessing the Efficiency of Health-care Facilities in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review

Background:

The provision of health-care services is dependent on the effective and efficient functioning of various components of a health-care system. It is therefore important to evaluate the functioning of these various components. Hence, the aim of this study was to review studies on health-care facilities efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with respect to the methodologies used as well as outcomes and factors influencing efficiency.

Methods:

The review was conducted through a comprehensive search of electronic databases which included PubMed, Web of science, academic search complete via EBSCOhost, Science Direct, and Google scholar. A search was also conducted by looking into citations in the reference list of selected articles and through gray literature. Studies were screened by examining their titles, abstracts, and full-text based on stated inclusion and exclusion criteria. The concurrent screening and data extraction were conducted by the two authors.

Results:

A total of 40 studies were shortlisted for the review. The majority (90.0%) of the studies employed the data envelopment analysis technique for their efficiency measurements. The input and output variables utilized by most of the studies were predominantly human resources and health-related services respectively. The outcome from majority of the studies showed that less than 40% of the studied facilities were efficient. The leading influencing factors reported by the studies were catchment population, facility ownership, and location.

Conclusions:

The review showed that there was a marked degree of inefficiency across the health-care facilities. Consequently, due to severe resource constraints facing SSA, there is a need to determine how to use the available resources optimally to improve health systems performance.

The efficiency of routine infant immunization services in six countries: a comparison of methods

BACKGROUND

Few studies have systematically examined the efficiency of routine infant immunization services. Using a representative sample of infant immunization sites in Benin, Ghana, Honduras, Moldova, Uganda and Zambia (316 total), we estimated average efficiency levels and variation in efficiency within each country, and investigated the properties of published efficiency estimation techniques.

METHODS

Using a dataset describing 316 immunization sites we estimated site-level efficiency using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA), and a published ensemble method combining these two approaches. For these three methods we operationalized efficiency using the Sheppard input efficiency measure, which is bounded in (0, 1), with higher values indicating greater efficiency. We also compared these methods to a simple regression approach, which used residuals from a conventional production function as a simplified efficiency index. Inputs were site-level service delivery costs (excluding vaccines) and outputs were total clients receiving DTP3. We analyzed each country separately, and conducted sensitivity analysis for different input/output combinations.

RESULTS

Using DEA, average input efficiency ranged from 0.40 in Ghana and Moldova to 0.58 in Benin. Using SFA, average input efficiency ranged from 0.43 in Ghana to 0.69 in Moldova. Within each country scores varied widely, with standard deviation of 0.18-0.23 for DEA and 0.10-0.20 for SFA. Input efficiency estimates generated using SFA were systematically higher than for DEA, and the rank correlation between scores ranged between 0.56-0.79. Average input efficiency from the ensemble estimator ranged between 0.41-0.61 across countries, and was highly correlated with the simplified efficiency index (rank correlation 0.81-0.92) as well as the DEA and SFA estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Results imply costs could be 30-60% lower for fully efficient sites. Such efficiency gains are unlikely to be achievable in practice - some of the apparent inefficiency may reflect measurement errors, or unmodifiable differences in the operating environment. However, adapted to work with routine reporting data and simplified methods, efficiency analysis could triage low performing sites for greater management attention, or identify more efficient sites as models for other facilities.

Leveraging existing program data for routine efficiency measurement in Zambia

Rationale: As donor contributions for HIV/AIDS stagnate globally, national governments must seek ways to improve use of existing resources through interventions to drive efficiency at the facility level.  But program managers lack routine information on unit expenditures at points of care, and higher-level planners are unable to assess resource use in the health system.  Thus, managers cannot measure current levels of technical efficiency, and are unable to evaluate effectiveness of interventions to increase technical efficiency.

Phased Implementation of REMS: FHI 360 developed the Routine Efficiency Monitoring System (REMS)-a relational database leveraging existing budget, expenditure and output data to produce quarterly site-level estimates of unit expenditure per service.  Along with the Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ) and implementation partner Avencion, we configured REMS to measure technical efficiency of Ministry of Health resources used to deliver HIV/AIDS services in 326 facilities in 17 high-priority districts in Copperbelt and Central Provinces.  REMS allocation algorithms were developed through facility assessments, and key informant interviews with MoH staff.  Existing IFMIS and DHIS-2 data streams provide recurring flows of expenditure and output data needed to estimate service-specific unit expenditures.  Trained users access REMS output through user-friendly dashboards delivered through a web-based application. 

REMS as a Solution: District health managers use REMS to identify “outlier” facilities to test performance improvement interventions.  Provincial and national planners are using REMS to seek savings and ensure that resources are directed to geographic and programmatic areas with highest need.  REMS can support reimbursement for social health insurance and provide time-series data on facility-level costs for modeling.

Conclusions and Next Steps:  REMS gives managers and planners substantially-improved data on how programs transform resources into services.  The GRZ is seeking funding to expand REMS nationally, covering all major disease areas.  Improved technical efficiency supports the goal of a sustainable HIV/AIDS response.

Comparative assessment of five trials of universal HIV testing and treatment in sub-Saharan Africa

Design

Universal voluntary HIV counselling and testing followed by prompt initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all those diagnosed HIV‐infected (universal test and treat, UTT) is now a global health standard. However, its population‐level impact, feasibility and cost remain unknown. Five community‐based trials have been implemented in sub‐Saharan Africa to measure the effects of various UTT strategies at population level: BCPP/YaTsie in Botswana, MaxART in Swaziland, HPTN 071 (PopART) in South Africa and Zambia, SEARCH in Uganda and Kenya and ANRS 12249 TasP in South Africa. This report describes and contrasts the contexts, research methodologies, intervention packages, themes explored, evolution of study designs and interventions related to each of these five UTT trials.

Methods

We conducted a comparative assessment of the five trials using data extracted from study protocols and collected during baseline studies, with additional input from study investigators. We organized differences and commonalities across the trials in five categories: trial contexts, research designs, intervention packages, trial themes and adaptations.

Results

All performed in the context of generalized HIV epidemics, the trials highly differ in their social, demographic, economic, political and health systems settings. They share the common aim of assessing the impact of UTT on the HIV epidemic but differ in methodological aspects such as study design and eligibility criteria for trial populations. In addition to universal ART initiation, the trials deliver a wide range of biomedical, behavioural and structural interventions as part of their UTT strategies. The five studies explore common issues, including the uptake rates of the trial services and individual health outcomes. All trials have adapted since their initiation to the evolving political, economic and public health contexts, including adopting the successive national recommendations for ART initiation.

Conclusions

We found substantial commonalities but also differences between the five UTT trials in their design, conduct and multidisciplinary outputs. As empirical literature on how UTT may improve efficiency and quality of HIV care at population level is still scarce, this article provides a foundation for more collaborative research on UTT and supports evidence‐based decision making for HIV care in country and internationally.

Potential for additional government spending on HIV/AIDS in 137 low-income and middle-income countries: an economic modelling study

Background

Between 2012 and 2016, development assistance for HIV/AIDS decreased by 20·0%; domestic financing is therefore critical to sustaining the response to HIV/AIDS. To understand whether domestic resources could fill the financing gaps created by declines in development assistance, we aimed to track spending on HIV/AIDS and estimated the potential for governments to devote additional domestic funds to HIV/AIDS.

Methods

We extracted 8589 datapoints reporting spending on HIV/AIDS. We used spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate a complete time series of spending by domestic sources (government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket) and spending category (prevention, and care and treatment) from 2000 to 2016 for 137 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Development assistance data for HIV/AIDS were from Financing Global Health 2018, and HIV/AIDS prevalence, incidence, and mortality were from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017. We used stochastic frontier analysis to estimate potential additional government spending on HIV/AIDS, which was conditional on the current government health budget and other finance, economic, and contextual factors associated with HIV/AIDS spending. All spending estimates were reported in 2018 US$.

Findings

Between 2000 and 2016, total spending on HIV/AIDS in LMICs increased from $4·0 billion (95% uncertainty interval 2·9–6·0) to $19·9 billion (15·8–26·3), spending on HIV/AIDS prevention increased from $596 million (258 million to 1·3 billion) to $3·0 billion (1·5–5·8), and spending on HIV/AIDS care and treatment increased from $1·1 billion (458·1 million to 2·2 billion) to $7·2 billion (4·3–11·8). Over this time period, the share of resources sourced from development assistance increased from 33·2% (21·3–45·0) to 46·0% (34·2–57·0). Care and treatment spending per year on antiretroviral therapy varied across countries, with an IQR of $284–2915. An additional $12·1 billion (8·4–17·5) globally could be mobilised by governments of LMICs to finance the response to HIV/AIDS. Most of these potential resources are concentrated in ten middle-income countries (Argentina, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, South Africa, and Vietnam).

Interpretation

Some governments could mobilise more domestic resources to fight HIV/AIDS, which could free up additional development assistance for many countries without this ability, including many low-income, high-prevalence countries. However, a large gap exists between available financing and the funding needed to achieve global HIV/AIDS goals, and sustained and coordinated effort across international and domestic development partners is required to end AIDS by 2030.

Funding

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A mixed method multi-country assessment of barriers to implementing pediatric inpatient care guidelines

Introduction

Accelerating progress in reducing child deaths is needed in order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal child mortality target. This will require a focus on vulnerable children–including young children, those who are undernourished or with acute illnesses requiring hospitalization. Improving adherence to inpatient guidelines may be an important strategy to reduce child mortality, including among the most vulnerable. The aim of our assessment of nine sub-Saharan African and South Asian hospitals was to determine adherence to pediatric inpatient care recommendations, in addition to capacity for and barriers to implementation of guideline-adherent care prior to commencing the Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) Cohort study. The CHAIN Cohort study aims to identify modifiable risk factors for poor inpatient and post discharge outcomes above and beyond implementation of guidelines.

Methods

Hospital infrastructure, staffing, durable equipment, and consumable supplies such as medicines and laboratory reagents, were evaluated through observation and key informant interviews. Inpatient medical records of 2–23 month old children were assessed for adherence to national and international guidelines. The records of children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) were oversampled to reflect the CHAIN study population. Seven core adherence indicators were examined: oximetry and oxygen therapy, fluids, anemia diagnosis and transfusion, antibiotics, malaria testing and antimalarials, nutritional assessment and management, and HIV testing.

Results

All sites had facilities and equipment necessary to implement care consistent with World Health Organization and national guidelines. However, stockouts of essential medicines and laboratory reagents were reported to be common at some sites, even though they were mostly present during the assessment visits. Doctor and nurse to patient ratios varied widely. We reviewed the notes of 261 children with admission diagnoses of sepsis (17), malaria (47), pneumonia (70), diarrhea (106), and SAM (119); 115 had multiple diagnoses. Adherence to oxygen therapy, antimalarial, and malnutrition refeeding guidelines was >75%. Appropriate antimicrobials were prescribed for 75% of antibiotic-indicative conditions. However, 20/23 (87%) diarrhea and 20/27 (74%) malaria cases without a documented indication were prescribed antibiotics. Only 23/122 (19%) with hemoglobin levels meeting anemia criteria had recorded anemia diagnoses. HIV test results were infrequently documented even at hospitals with universal screening policies (66/173, 38%). Informants at all sites attributed inconsistent guideline implementation to inadequate staffing.

Conclusion

Assessed hospitals had the infrastructure and equipment to implement guideline-consistent care. While fluids, appropriate antimalarials and antibiotics, and malnutrition refeeding adherence was comparable to published estimates from low- and high-resource settings, there were inconsistencies in implementation of some other recommendations. Stockouts of essential therapeutics and laboratory reagents were a noted barrier, but facility staff perceived inadequate human resources as the primary constraint to consistent guideline implementation.

Funding and services needed to achieve universal health coverage: applications of global, regional, and national estimates of utilisation of outpatient visits and inpatient admissions from 1990 to 2016, and unit costs from 1995 to 2016

BACKGROUND

To inform plans to achieve universal health coverage (UHC), we estimated utilisation and unit cost of outpatient visits and inpatient admissions, did a decomposition analysis of utilisation, and estimated additional services and funds needed to meet a UHC standard for utilisation.

METHODS

We collated 1175 country-years of outpatient data on utilisation from 130 countries and 2068 country-years of inpatient data from 128 countries. We did meta-regression analyses of annual visits and admissions per capita by sex, age, location, and year with DisMod-MR, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We decomposed changes in total number of services from 1990 to 2016. We used data from 795 National Health Accounts to estimate shares of outpatient and inpatient services in total health expenditure by location and year and estimated unit costs as expenditure divided by utilisation. We identified standards of utilisation per disability-adjusted life-year and estimated additional services and funds needed.

FINDINGS

In 2016, the global age-standardised outpatient utilisation rate was 5·42 visits (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 4·88-5·99) per capita and the inpatient utilisation rate was 0·10 admissions (0·09-0·11) per capita. Globally, 39·35 billion (95% UI 35·38-43·58) visits and 0·71 billion (0·65-0·77) admissions were provided in 2016. Of the 58·65% increase in visits since 1990, population growth accounted for 42·95%, population ageing for 8·09%, and higher utilisation rates for 7·63%; results for the 67·96% increase in admissions were 44·33% from population growth, 9·99% from population ageing, and 13·55% from increases in utilisation rates. 2016 unit cost estimates (in 2017 international dollars [I$]) ranged from I$2 to I$478 for visits and from I$87 to I$22 543 for admissions. The annual cost of 8·20 billion (6·24-9·95) additional visits and 0·28 billion (0·25-0·30) admissions in low-income and lower-middle income countries in 2016 was I$503·12 billion (404·35-605·98) or US$158·10 billion (126·58-189·67).

INTERPRETATION

UHC plans can be based on utilisation and unit costs of current health systems and guided by standards of utilisation of outpatient visits and inpatient admissions that achieve the highest coverage of personal health services at the lowest cost.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Decreasing cost of public sector first-line ART services in India from 2007-2008 to 2015-2016

Introduction

India has scaled-up antiretroviral treatment (ART) in public sector facilities, but data to understand time trends of average cost of ART are limited.

Materials and methods

Cost and output data were collected at all public sector ART centres in undivided Andhra Pradesh (high-HIV burden state) and Rajasthan (low-HIV burden state) in India from fiscal year 2007–2008 to 2012–2013. Average cost per patient for first-line ART, and its relation with scale of services, were assessed. Using data on scale of services, the average cost was estimated up to 2015–2016. Break-even point was estimated from average and marginal cost functions. Costs were adjusted to 2015 constant price.

Results

The average cost per patient alive and on ART in 2015–2016 was US$162 in undivided Andhra Pradesh and US$186 in Rajasthan, which was 51.4% and 35.8% lower than in 2007–2008, respectively. Average ART drug cost declined by 27.2% during this period, and was 70.9% and 61.5% of the total ART cost in the two states in 2015–2016. The average cost other than ART drugs declined by 73.1% and 45.7%, with the number of patients served increasing 7 and 14.2 times, respectively. Average cost other than ART drugs had a significant negative relation with scale (R² = 86.4%-82.8%, p<0.001). Break-even analysis suggested that 47.5% and 58.8% of the ART centres in undivided Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan, respectively, were functioning below optimal scale in 2015–2016. The estimated total economic cost of first-line ART services provided in the public sector in India in fiscal year 2015–2016 was US$ 151 million; it would be US$ 216.1 million to provide this to all eligible persons in India.

Conclusion

The average cost of providing first-line ART has declined in India, and further reduction is possible if the optimal scale of services is achieved. These findings can inform resource requirement for the ART programme in India.

Leveraging existing program data for routine efficiency measurement in Zambia

Background: As donor contributions for HIV/AIDS stagnate globally, national governments must seek ways to improve use of existing resources through interventions to drive efficiency at the facility level.  But program managers lack routinely available information on unit expenditures at points of care, and higher-level planners are unable to assess how resources are used throughout the health system.  Thus, managers cannot measure current levels of technical efficiency, and are unable to evaluate effectiveness of interventions to increase technical efficiency. Methods: FHI 360 developed the Routine Efficiency Monitoring System (REMS), a relational database that leverages existing budget, expenditure and output data to produce quarterly site-level estimates of unit expenditure per service.  Along with the Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ) and implementation partner Avencion, we configured REMS to measure technical efficiency of Ministry of Health resources used to deliver HIV/AIDS services in 326 facilities in 17 high-priority districts in Copperbelt and Central Provinces.  REMS allocation algorithms were developed through facility assessments and key informant interviews with MoH staff.  Existing IFMIS and DHIS-2 data streams provide recurring flows of expenditure and output data needed to estimate service-specific unit expenditures.  Trained users access REMS output through user-friendly dashboards delivered through a web-based application.  Results: District health management teams are using REMS to identify “outlier” facilities to test performance improvement interventions.  Provincial and national planners are using REMS to seek savings and ensure that resources are directed to geographic and programmatic areas with highest need.  REMS can support reimbursement for social health insurance and provide time-series data on facility-level costs for modeling purposes. Conclusions:  REMS gives managers and planners substantially-improved data on how programs transform resources into services.  The GRZ is seeking funding to expand REMS nationally, covering all major disease areas.  Improved technical efficiency supports the goal of a sustainable HIV/AIDS response.

Spending on health and HIV/AIDS: domestic health spending and development assistance in 188 countries, 1995-2015

BACKGROUND

Comparable estimates of health spending are crucial for the assessment of health systems and to optimally deploy health resources. The methods used to track health spending continue to evolve, but little is known about the distribution of spending across diseases. We developed improved estimates of health spending by source, including development assistance for health, and, for the first time, estimated HIV/AIDS spending on prevention and treatment and by source of funding, for 188 countries.

METHODS

We collected published data on domestic health spending, from 1995 to 2015, from a diverse set of international agencies. We tracked development assistance for health from 1990 to 2017. We also extracted 5385 datapoints about HIV/AIDS spending, between 2000 and 2015, from online databases, country reports, and proposals submitted to multilateral organisations. We used spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to generate complete and comparable estimates for health and HIV/AIDS spending. We report most estimates in 2017 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars and adjust all estimates for the effect of inflation.

FINDINGS

Between 1995 and 2015, global health spending per capita grew at an annualised rate of 3·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1 to 3·2), with growth being largest in upper-middle-income countries (5·4% per capita [UI 5·3-5·5]) and lower-middle-income countries (4·2% per capita [4·2-4·3]). In 2015, $9·7 trillion (9·7 trillion to 9·8 trillion) was spent on health worldwide. High-income countries spent $6·5 trillion (6·4 trillion to 6·5 trillion) or 66·3% (66·0 to 66·5) of the total in 2015, whereas low-income countries spent $70·3 billion (69·3 billion to 71·3 billion) or 0·7% (0·7 to 0·7). Between 1990 and 2017, development assistance for health increased by 394·7% ($29·9 billion), with an estimated $37·4 billion of development assistance being disbursed for health in 2017, of which $9·1 billion (24·2%) targeted HIV/AIDS. Between 2000 and 2015, $562·6 billion (531·1 billion to 621·9 billion) was spent on HIV/AIDS worldwide. Governments financed 57·6% (52·0 to 60·8) of that total. Global HIV/AIDS spending peaked at 49·7 billion (46·2-54·7) in 2013, decreasing to $48·9 billion (45·2 billion to 54·2 billion) in 2015. That year, low-income and lower-middle-income countries represented 74·6% of all HIV/AIDS disability-adjusted life-years, but just 36·6% (34·4 to 38·7) of total HIV/AIDS spending. In 2015, $9·3 billion (8·5 billion to 10·4 billion) or 19·0% (17·6 to 20·6) of HIV/AIDS financing was spent on prevention, and $27·3 billion (24·5 billion to 31·1 billion) or 55·8% (53·3 to 57·9) was dedicated to care and treatment.

INTERPRETATION

From 1995 to 2015, total health spending increased worldwide, with the fastest per capita growth in middle-income countries. While these national disparities are relatively well known, low-income countries spent less per person on health and HIV/AIDS than did high-income and middle-income countries. Furthermore, declines in development assistance for health continue, including for HIV/AIDS. Additional cuts to development assistance could hasten this decline, and risk slowing progress towards global and national goals.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Use of expenditure analysis to enhance returns on investments in HIV services

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Globally, the response to the HIV epidemic is at a crisis point. International investments in the HIV response have been essentially flat for 8 years and domestic budgets in low and middle-income countries - still recovering from the global recession - have not been able to fill the resource gap to drive a full-fledged HIV response. Still, efficiencies and prioritization of evidence-based interventions enable a significant scale-up of treatment, but millions more people remain without treatment. This review looks at recent data and research to evaluate interventions that may help close gaps in service provision that undermine testing and treatment programs.

RECENT FINDINGS

The President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief recently began publicly releasing vast programmatic and expenditure data. These data reveal potential efficiency gaps in testing and treatment programs, particularly in the area of linkage and retention. Interventions such as HIV self-testing have been proposed to help, but whether they can deliver better results remains unclear. Same-day initiation on treatment improves initiation, retention, and viral suppression rates.

SUMMARY

Near real-time analysis of data and active response is critical in improving efficiencies in programs. More investment in implementation research is necessary to improve linkage to care and treatment to reach 90-90-90 goals.

Can differentiated care models solve the crisis in HIV treatment financing? Analysis of prospects for 38 countries in sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction: Rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the context of financial and health system constraints has resulted in calls to maximize efficiency in ART service delivery. Adopting differentiated care models (DCMs) for ART could potentially be more cost-efficient and improve outcomes. However, no study comprehensively projects the cost savings across countries. We model the potential reduction in facility-level costs and number of health workers needed when implementing two types of DCMs while attempting to reach 90-90-90 targets in 38 sub-Saharan African countries from 2016 to 2020.

Methods: We estimated the costs of three service delivery models: (1) undifferentiated care, (2) differentiated care by patient age and stability, and (3) differentiated care by patient age, stability, key vs. general population status, and urban vs. rural location. Frequency of facility visits, type and frequency of laboratory testing, and coverage of community ART support vary by patient subgroup. For each model, we estimated the total costs of antiretroviral drugs, laboratory commodities, and facility-level personnel and overhead. Certain groups under four-criteria differentiation require more intensive inputs. Community-based ART costs were included in the DCMs. We take into account underlying uncertainty in the projected numbers on ART and unit costs.

Results: Total five-year facility-based ART costs for undifferentiated care are estimated to be US$23.33 billion (95% confidence interval [CI]: $23.3–$23.5 billion). An estimated 17.5% (95% CI: 17.4%–17.7%) and 16.8% (95% CI: 16.7%–17.0%) could be saved from 2016 to 2020 from implementing the age and stability DCM and four-criteria DCM, respectively, with annual cost savings increasing over time. DCMs decrease the full-time equivalent (FTE) health workforce requirements for ART. An estimated 46.4% (95% CI: 46.1%–46.7%) fewer FTE health workers are needed in 2020 for the age and stability DCM compared with undifferentiated care.

Conclusions: Adopting DCMs can result in significant efficiency gains in terms of reduced costs and health workforce needs, even with the costs of scaling up community-based ART support under DCMs. Efficiency gains remained flat with increased differentiation. More evidence is needed on how to translate analyzed efficiency gains into implemented cost reductions at the facility level.

The effect of facility-based antiretroviral therapy programs on outpatient services in Kenya and Uganda

Background

Considerable debate exists concerning the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) service scale-up on non-HIV services and overall health system performance in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we examined whether ART services affected trends in non-ART outpatient department (OPD) visits in Kenya and Uganda.

Methods

Using a nationally representative sample of health facilities in Kenya and Uganda, we estimated the effect of ART programs on OPD visits from 2007 to 2012. We modeled the annual percent change in non-ART OPD visits using hierarchical mixed-effects linear regressions, controlling for a range of facility characteristics. We used four different constructs of ART services to capture the different ways in which the presence, growth, overall, and relative size of ART programs may affect non-ART OPD services.

Results

Our final sample included 321 health facilities (140 in Kenya and 181 in Uganda). On average, OPD and ART visits increased steadily in Kenya and Uganda between 2007 and 2012. For facilities where ART services were not offered, the average annual increase in OPD visits was 4·2% in Kenya and 13·5% in Uganda. Among facilities that provided ART services, we found average annual OPD volume increases of 7·2% in Kenya and 5·6% in Uganda, with simultaneous annual increases of 13·7% and 12·5% in ART volumes. We did not find a statistically significant relationship between annual changes in OPD services and the presence, growth, overall, or relative size of ART services. However, in a subgroup analysis, we found that Ugandan hospitals that offered ART services had statistically significantly less growth in OPD visits than Ugandan hospitals that did not provide ART services.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that ART services in Kenya and Uganda did not have a statistically significant deleterious effects on OPD services between 2007 and 2012, although subgroup analyses indicate variation by facility type. Our findings are encouraging, particularly given recent recommendations for universal access to ART, demonstrating that expanding ART services is not inherently linked to declines in other health services in sub-Saharan Africa.

Human Resources for Treating HIV/AIDS: Are the Preventive Effects of Antiretroviral Treatment a Game Changer?

Shortages of human resources for treating HIV/AIDS (HRHA) are a fundamental barrier to reaching universal antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage in developing countries. Previous studies suggest that recruiting HRHA to attain universal ART coverage poses an insurmountable challenge as ART significantly increases survival among HIV-infected individuals. While new evidence about ART's prevention benefits suggests fewer infections may mitigate the challenge, new policies such as treatment-as-prevention (TasP) will exacerbate it. We develop a mathematical model to analytically study the net effects of these countervailing factors. Using South Africa as a case study, we find that contrary to previous results, universal ART coverage is achievable even with current HRHA numbers. However, larger health gains are possible through a surge-capacity policy that aggressively recruits HRHA to reach universal ART coverage quickly. Without such a policy, TasP roll-out can increase health losses by crowding out sicker patients from treatment, unless a surge capacity exclusively for TasP is also created.

The efficiency of chronic disease care in sub-Saharan Africa

The number of people needing chronic disease care is projected to increase in sub-Saharan Africa as a result of expanding human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment coverage, rising life expectancies, and lifestyle changes. Using nationally representative data of healthcare facilities, Di Giorgio et al. found that many HIV clinics in Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia appear to have considerable untapped capacity to provide care for additional patients. These findings highlight the potential for increasing the efficiency of clinical processes for chronic disease care at the facility level. Important questions for future research are how estimates of comparative technical efficiency across facilities change, when they are adjusted for quality of care and the composition of patients by care complexity. Looking ahead, substantial research investment will be needed to ensure that we do not forgo the opportunity to learn how efficiency changes, as chronic care is becoming increasingly differentiated by patient type and integrated across diseases and health systems functions.Please see related article: http://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-016-0653-z.