The impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and liver fibrosis on adverse clinical outcomes and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease: a prospective cohort study using the UK Biobank

Accurate prediction of all-cause mortality in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease using electronic health records

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Despite the huge clinical burden of MASLD, validated tools for early risk stratification are lacking, and heterogeneous disease expression and a highly variable rate of progression to clinical outcomes result in prognostic uncertainty. We aimed to investigate longitudinal electronic health record-based outcome prediction in MASLD using a state-of-the-art machine learning model.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

n = 940 patients with histologically-defined MASLD were used to develop a deep-learning model for all-cause mortality prediction. Patient timelines, spanning 12 years, were fully-annotated with demographic/clinical characteristics, ICD-9 and -10 codes, blood test results, prescribing data, and secondary care activity. A Transformer neural network (TNN) was trained to output concomitant probabilities of 12-, 24-, and 36-month all-cause mortality. In-sample performance was assessed using 5-fold cross-validation. Out-of-sample performance was assessed in an independent set of n = 528 MASLD patients.

RESULTS

In-sample model performance achieved AUROC curve 0.74-0.90 (95 % CI: 0.72-0.94), sensitivity 64 %-82 %, specificity 75 %-92 % and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) 94 %-98 %. Out-of-sample model validation had AUROC 0.70-0.86 (95 % CI: 0.67-0.90), sensitivity 69 %-70 %, specificity 96 %-97 % and PPV 75 %-77 %. Key predictive factors, identified using coefficients of determination, were age, presence of type 2 diabetes, and history of hospital admissions with length of stay >14 days.

CONCLUSIONS

A TNN, applied to routinely-collected longitudinal electronic health records, achieved good performance in prediction of 12-, 24-, and 36-month all-cause mortality in patients with MASLD. Extrapolation of our technique to population-level data will enable scalable and accurate risk stratification to identify people most likely to benefit from anticipatory health care and personalized interventions.

Epicardial and liver fat implications in albuminuria: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Albuminuria is considered an early and sensitive marker of kidney dysfunction, but also an independent cardiovascular risk factor. Considering the possible relationship among metabolic liver disease, cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease, we aimed to evaluate the risk of developing albuminuria regarding the presence of epicardial adipose tissue and the steatotic liver disease status.

METHODS

A retrospective long-term longitudinal study including 181 patients was carried out. Epicardial adipose tissue and steatotic liver disease were assessed by computed tomography. The presence of albuminuria at follow-up was defined as the outcome.

RESULTS

After a median follow up of 11.2 years, steatotic liver disease (HR 3.15; 95% CI, 1.20-8.26; p = 0.02) and excess amount of epicardial adipose tissue (HR 6.12; 95% CI, 1.69-22.19; p = 0.006) were associated with an increased risk of albuminuria after adjustment for visceral adipose tissue, sex, age, weight status, type 2 diabetes, prediabetes, hypertriglyceridemia, hypercholesterolemia, arterial hypertension, and cardiovascular prevention treatment at baseline. The presence of both conditions was associated with a higher risk of developing albuminuria compared to having steatotic liver disease alone (HR 5.91; 95% CI 1.15-30.41, p = 0.033). Compared with the first tertile of visceral adipose tissue, the proportion of subjects with liver steatosis and abnormal epicardial adipose tissue was significantly higher in the second and third tertile. We found a significant correlation between epicardial fat and steatotic liver disease (rho = 0.43 [p < 0.001]).

CONCLUSIONS

Identification and management/decrease of excess adiposity must be a target in the primary and secondary prevention of chronic kidney disease development and progression. Visceral adiposity assessment may be an adequate target in the daily clinical setting. Moreover, epicardial adipose tissue and steatotic liver disease assessment may aid in the primary prevention of renal dysfunction.

Association of serum calcium, vitamin D, and C-reactive protein with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in an osteoarthritis population in the UK: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Osteoarthritis is a prevalent musculoskeletal condition, but the role of specific serum biomarkers, such as calcium, vitamin D, and C-reactive protein (CRP), in predicting mortality among individuals with osteoarthritis remains unclear.

METHODS

This observational study analyzed longitudinal data from over 500,000 participants in the UK Biobank, identifying those with osteoarthritis using ICD-9/10 codes or self-reported history. We performed multivariable cox-regression and flexible parametric survival model (FPSM) for survival analysis, with adjustments made through the inverse probability of treatment weight (IPTW) for baseline covariates identified by directed acyclic graphs (DAGs).

RESULTS

Of the 49,082 osteoarthritis population, the average age was 60.69 years, with 58.7% being female. During the follow-up period exceeding 15 years, a total of 5,522 people with osteoarthritis died. High serum calcium levels, compared to normal serum calcium levels, were significantly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11, 1.59), cardiovascular diseases (CVD)-related deaths (HR 1.55, 95% CI 1.05, 2.29), and other deaths (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.20, 2.11). Low serum calcium levels, compared to normal serum calcium levels, was linked with CVD-related deaths (HR 2.06, 95% CI 1.02, 4.14). Vitamin D insufficiency, compared to sufficient vitamin D levels, was correlated with all-cause mortality (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.13, 1.33), CVD-related deaths (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.20, 1.72), and other deaths (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.09, 1.45) but not with cancer-related deaths. High serum CRP levels, compared to normal CRP levels, were associated with all outcomes (all-cause mortality: HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.12, 1.33; CVD-related death: HR 1.24, 95%CI 1.03, 1.49; cancer-related death: HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.09, 1.40; other deaths: HR 1.19, 95%CI 1.03, 1.38).

CONCLUSIONS

Both high and low serum calcium levels, elevated CRP, and vitamin D insufficiency are potential predictors of increased mortality risk in the osteoarthritis population. These findings emphasize the importance of monitoring and possibly addressing these serum biomarkers in osteoarthritis populations to improve long-term outcomes. Further studies are needed to understand the underlying mechanisms and to propose therapeutic interventions.

Association between liver fibrosis scores and short-term clinical outcomes in hospitalized chronic kidney disease patients: a prospective observational study

Introduction

In resource-constrained countries, inadequate access to healthcare and prognostic tools can be the Achilles' heel in effectively managing chronic kidney disease (CKD). There is a significant similarity in the pathogenesis of CKD and liver fibrosis. The role of liver fibrosis (LF) scores in predicting short-term clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients with CKD is unknown. Our study aimed at calculating LF scores and studying the association of liver fibrosis with short-term mortality and morbidity in CKD patients.

Methods

Patients aged above 15 years diagnosed with CKD as per the KDIGO criteria were enrolled. LF scores, namely, NFS, GPRI, and FIB-4 scores were calculated. Patients were followed up for a period of 28 days for good and poor composite outcomes, namely, the requirement of hemodialysis, non-invasive ventilation, prolonged hospital stay, and neurological and cardiovascular outcomes including death.

Results

Among 163 patients, 70.5% were below 60 years of age, 82.2% were male and 35% were diabetic. At 28-day follow up, 52.1% had poor composite outcome. The AUROC for GPRI and FIB-4 in predicting poor outcomes was 0.783 (95% CI: 0.71-0.855) (p < 0.001) and 0.62 (95% CI: 0.534-0.706) (p = 0.008), respectively. The AUROC for GPRI and NFS in predicting all-cause mortality was 0.735 (95% CI: 0.627-0.843) (p = 0.001) and 0.876 (95% CI, 0.8-0.952) (p < 0.001), respectively.

Conclusion

We found a positive association between LF scores and CKD outcomes in hospitalized patients. The LF scores significantly predicted poor outcomes in patients with CKD. Among the scores, GPRI was found to be a stronger predictor in predicting outcomes in both diabetic and non-diabetic patients with CKD. A high GPRI score was also associated with poor outcomes and increased mortality in both diabetics and non-diabetics.

Gucy1α1 specifically marks kidney, heart, lung and liver fibroblasts

Fibrosis is a common outcome of numerous pathologies, including chronic kidney disease (CKD), a progressive renal function deterioration. Current approaches to target activated fibroblasts, key effector contributors to fibrotic tissue remodeling, lack specificity. Here, we report Gucy1α1 as a specific kidney fibroblast marker. Gucy1α1 levels significantly increased over the course of two clinically relevant murine CKD models and directly correlated with established fibrosis markers. Immunofluorescent (IF) imaging showed that Gucy1α1 comprehensively labelled cortical and medullary quiescent and activated fibroblasts in the control kidney and throughout injury progression, respectively. Unlike traditionally used markers platelet derived growth factor receptor beta (Pdgfrβ) and vimentin (Vim), Gucy1α1 did not overlap with off-target populations such as podocytes. Notably, Gucy1α1 labelled kidney fibroblasts in both male and female mice. Furthermore, we observed elevated Gucy1α1 expression in the human fibrotic kidney and lung. Studies in the murine models of cardiac and liver fibrosis revealed Gucy1α1 elevation in activated Pdgfrβ-, Vim- and alpha smooth muscle actin (αSma)-expressing fibroblasts paralleling injury progression and resolution. Overall, we demonstrate Gucy1α1 as an exclusive fibroblast marker in both sexes. Due to its multiorgan translational potential, Gucy1α1 might provide a novel promising strategy to specifically target and mechanistically examine fibroblasts.

Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores predict chronic kidney disease development in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Despite the development of transient elastography (TE)-based Agile scores for diagnosing fibrotic burden in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), their applicability in predicting kidney outcomes remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the association between liver fibrotic burden, as assessed by Agile scores, and the risk of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) in patients with MASLD.

METHODS

A total of 3240 participants with MASLD but without pre-existing CKD who underwent TE between July 2006 and October 2018 were selected. The primary outcome was incident CKD, defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or proteinuria (≥1+ on dipstick) on two consecutive measurements. The secondary outcome was a 25% decline in eGFR measured on two consecutive visits.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 3.6 years, 187 participants (5.8%) developed incident CKD. When stratified into three groups according to Agile 3+ scores, multivariable Cox models revealed that risk of incident CKD was 2.77-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.89-4.07; p < 0.001) higher in the high-risk group (Agile 3+ >0.68), compared to the low-risk group (Agile 3+ <0.45). During a median follow-up of 3.4 years, the high-risk group had a 2.41-fold higher risk (95% CI, 1.86-3.12; p < 0.001) of experiencing the secondary outcome, compared to the low-risk group. Similar findings were observed for Agile 4 scores. Prediction testing revealed that Agile scores were better predictors of kidney outcomes, compared to liver stiffness measured by TE.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with MASLD, but without CKD, advanced liver fibrosis measured by Agile scores was significantly associated with a higher risk of incident CKD.

Gucy1α1 specifically marks kidney, heart, lung and liver fibroblasts

Fibrosis is a common outcome of numerous pathologies, including chronic kidney disease (CKD), a progressive renal function deterioration. Current approaches to target activated fibroblasts, key effector contributors to fibrotic tissue remodeling, lack specificity. Here, we report Gucy1α1 as a specific kidney fibroblast marker. Gucy1α1 levels significantly increased over the course of two clinically relevant murine CKD models and directly correlated with established fibrosis markers. Immunofluorescent (IF) imaging showed that Gucy1α1 comprehensively labelled cortical and medullary quiescent and activated fibroblasts in the control kidney and throughout injury progression, respectively. Unlike traditionally used markers platelet derived growth factor receptor beta (Pdgfrβ) and vimentin (Vim), Gucy1α1 did not overlap with off-target populations such as podocytes. Notably, Gucy1α1 labelled kidney fibroblasts in both male and female mice. Furthermore, we observed elevated GUCY1α1 expression in the human fibrotic kidney and lung. Studies in the murine models of cardiac and liver fibrosis revealed Gucy1α1 elevation in activated Pdgfrβ-, Vim- and alpha smooth muscle actin (αSma)-expressing fibroblasts paralleling injury progression and resolution. Overall, we demonstrate Gucy1α1 as an exclusive fibroblast marker in both sexes. Due to its multiorgan translational potential, GUCY1α1 might provide a novel promising strategy to specifically target and mechanistically examine fibroblasts.

Increased risk of chronic kidney disease and mortality in a cohort of people diagnosed with metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease with hepatic fibrosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) increases the risk of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the relative risk of CKD associated with increasing hepatic fibrosis, and consequent mortality risk, remains underexplored in real-world cohorts. In this study, we sought to establish whether hepatic fibrosis is associated with increased CKD risk and explore differences in mortality risk in a cohort of people living with MASLD, contingent on liver fibrosis and CKD status.

METHODS

This was an observational study of people who underwent routine liver function testing in Tayside, Scotland. MASLD was defined as: elevated ALT (>30 U/L) or GGT (>73 U/L); presence of diabetes, and/or hypertension, and/or obesity; weekly alcohol consumption <14 units (112g (+/-8g) alcohol); and negative screen for other aetiologies. Data was collected from digital health records. We used log-binomial models to quantify the risk of CKD among those with and without fibrosis, and Cox regression models to estimate differences in mortality risk dependent on fibrosis and CKD.

RESULTS

In our cohort (n = 2,046), 1,448 (70.8%) people had MASLD without fibrosis and 598 (29.2%) with fibrosis; 161 (11.1%) and 117 (19.6%) respectively also had CKD. After excluding individuals with structural, autoimmune, or malignant CKD (n = 22), liver fibrosis (n = 593; 18.9% with CKD) was associated with increased CKD risk (aRR = 1.31, 1.04-1.64, p = 0.021). Increased mortality risk was observed for those with liver fibrosis (aHR = 2.30, 1.49-3.56, p = <0.001) and was higher again among people with both fibrosis and CKD (aHR = 5.07, 3.07-8.39, p = <0.014).

CONCLUSIONS

Liver fibrosis was an independent risk factor for CKD in this cohort of people living with MASLD. Furthermore, those with MASLD with liver fibrosis had higher risk for mortality and this risk was further elevated among those with co-morbid CKD. Given the increased risk of CKD, and consequent mortality risk, among people living with MASLD fibrosis, renal function screening should be considered within liver health surveillance programmes and guidelines.

Targeting metabolic-associated fatty liver disease in diabetic kidney disease: A call to action

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease or metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a common condicion with increasing prevalence and incidence, specially in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Both cardiovascular and renal disease are clearly increased in these patients, particularly in those with diabetic nephropathy. In the liver-heart-kidney-metabolic axis, the common pathophysiological basis of MAFLD, cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and T2DM is the same. The clinical relationship between all of them is clear and is multidirectional: MAFLD may precede the development of cardiovascular and renal disease, and may also worsen the prognosis of these complications once developed. In this review we emphasize the importance of targeting MAFLD in Diabetic kidney disease, with the goal of detecting high-risk patients in order to improve their prognosis.

Steatotic liver disease, MASLD and risk of chronic kidney disease

With the rising tide of fatty liver disease related to metabolic dysfunction worldwide, the association of this common liver disease with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has become increasingly evident. In 2020, the more inclusive term metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) was proposed to replace the old term non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). In 2023, a modified Delphi process was led by three large pan-national liver associations. There was consensus to change the fatty liver disease nomenclature and definition to include the presence of at least one of five common cardiometabolic risk factors as diagnostic criteria. The name chosen to replace NAFLD was metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). The change of nomenclature from NAFLD to MAFLD and then MASLD has resulted in a reappraisal of the epidemiological trends and associations with the risk of developing CKD. The observed association between MAFLD/MASLD and CKD and our understanding that CKD can be an epiphenomenon linked to underlying metabolic dysfunction support the notion that individuals with MASLD are at substantially higher risk of incident CKD than those without MASLD. This narrative review provides an overview of the literature on (a) the evolution of criteria for diagnosing this highly prevalent metabolic liver disease, (b) the epidemiological evidence linking MASLD to the risk of CKD, (c) the underlying mechanisms by which MASLD (and factors strongly linked with MASLD) may increase the risk of developing CKD, and (d) the potential drug treatments that may benefit both MASLD and CKD.

Cross-talk between gut microbiota and liver steatosis: Complications and therapeutic target

Liver steatosis is the most widespread chronic liver condition. Its global incidence is rising swiftly and is currently estimated to be 24%. Liver steatosis is strongly related with numerous metabolic syndrome characteristics, like obesity, insulin resistance, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension. The gastrointestinal tract contains about 100 trillion commensal organisms and more than 7,000 distinct bacterial strains. Fat deposition in the liver without secondary causes is known as liver steatosis. Dysregulation of the gut flora is one of the factors connected to the onset of fatty liver disease. Dietary choices may alter constitution of the microbiome and cause gut microbiome dysbiosis, particularly due to the intake of food high in fructose sugars, animal products, and saturated fats. Various gut bacteria cause nutrient metabolism in multiple ways, setting off different inflammatory cascades that encourage liver disease and pathways that help fat build up in the liver. Due to their relatively stable nature, genetic factors may not be responsible for the constant increase in liver steatosis incidence. Genetic factors set the stage for liver steatosis pathogenesis. This review will offer an overview of our present knowledge of the roles played by gut microbiota in regulating the development of liver steatosis, potential side effects, and potential treatment targets.

The Association between Personality Factors and Metabolic Parameters among Patients with Non-Alcoholic-Fatty Liver Disease and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus-A Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

The increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) states a serious problem for public health. The introduction of effective methods of treatment and prevention is crucial to avoid complications of these diseases. Among them, we can specify psychological factors that affect everyday life and determine the patient's attitude towards therapy, and what follows, their compliance in treatment. The literature indicates these connections in various ways; in our study, we extend this view to include a broader perspective of human personality.

OBJECTIVE

We decided to investigate the associations between personality factors and metabolic parameters in patients with NAFLD and T2DM in order to better understand the patient's approach to the treatment of a chronic disease, such as those mentioned, and to establish the basis for further research implementing psychological interventions in the treatment of NAFLD and T2DM.

METHODS

One hundred participants with NAFLD and T2DM underwent blood tests and anthropometric measures. Each of them was asked to complete five questionnaires evaluating their personality properties.

RESULTS

We revealed that a rise in body mass index is related to a fall in the emotional intelligence factor of utilizing emotions, and a rise in emotional perception. The decrease in task-oriented coping style and a rise in emotion-oriented coping style are associated with a waist-hip ratio increase. The increase in fasting plasma glucose is predicted by a decrease in task-oriented coping style score. A fall in social diversion coping style score is associated with a high-density lipoprotein increase; in turn, a triglycerides increase is connected with a decline in rhythmicity score.

CONCLUSIONS

The personality factors are in relationship in the management of NAFLD and T2DM. They affect a patient's approach to treatment, which is very important, because we know lifestyle and dietary interventions are an important part of the treatment of these diseases. The compliance manifests by lifestyle modifications, taking medications regularly, measuring blood glucose, and inspection visits in outpatients' clinics are a large part of a diabetic's life. Future studies introducing psychological intervention to improve, e.g., coping styles or rhythmicity are needed to implement new methods of patient management.