The Full Value of Vaccine Assessments (FVVA): a framework for assessing and communicating the value of vaccines for investment and introduction decision-making

The role of vaccines in reducing antimicrobial resistance: A review of potential impact of vaccines on AMR and insights across 16 vaccines and pathogens

In 2019, an estimated 4.95 million deaths were linked to antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Vaccines can prevent many of these deaths by averting both drug-sensitive and resistant infections, reducing antibiotic usage, and lowering the likelihood of developing resistance genes. However, their role in mitigating AMR is currently underutilized. This article builds upon previous research that utilizes Vaccine Value Profiles-tools that assess the health, socioeconomic, and societal impact of pathogens-to inform vaccine development. We analyze the effects of 16 pathogens, covered by Vaccine Value Profiles, on AMR, and explore how vaccines could reduce AMR. The article also provides insights into vaccine development and usage. Vaccines are crucial in lessening the impact of infectious diseases and curbing the development of AMR. To fully realize their potential, vaccines must be more prominently featured in the overall strategy to combat AMR. This requires ongoing investment in research and development of new vaccines and the implementation of additional prevention and control measures to address this global threat effectively.

Vaccine value profile for invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella disease

Invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease is an under-recognized high-burden disease causing major health and socioeconomic issues in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA), predominantly among immune-naïve infants and young children, including those with recognized comorbidities such as HIV infection. iNTS disease is primarily caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium sequence type (ST) 313 and 'African-restricted clades' of Salmonella Enteritidis ST11 that have emerged across the African continent as a series of epidemics associated with acquisition of new antimicrobial resistance. Due to genotypes with a high prevalence of antimicrobial resistance and scarcity of therapeutic options, these NTS serovars are designated by the World Health Organization as a priority pathogen for research and development of interventions, including vaccines, to address and reduce NTS associated bacteremia and meningitis in sSA. Novel and traditional vaccine technologies are being applied to develop vaccines against iNTS disease, and the results of the first clinical trials in the infant target population should become available in the near future. The "Vaccine Value Profile" (VVP) addresses information related predominantly to invasive disease caused by Salmonella Enteritidis and Salmonella Typhimurium prevalent in sSA. Information is included on stand-alone iNTS disease candidate vaccines and candidate vaccines targeting iNTS disease combined with another invasive serotype, Salmonella Typhi, that is also common across sSA. Out of scope for the first version of this VVP is a wider discussion on either diarrheagenic NTS disease (dNTS) also associated with Salmonella Enteritidis and Salmonella Typhimurium or the development of a multivalent Salmonella vaccines targeting key serovars for use globally. This VVP for vaccines to prevent iNTS disease is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of the information and data that are currently available to inform the potential public health, economic, and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. Future versions of this VVP will be updated to reflect ongoing activities such as vaccine development strategies and a "Full Vaccine Value Assessment" that will inform the value proposition of an iNTS disease vaccine. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, public private partnerships, and multi-lateral organizations, and in collaboration with stakeholders from the World Health Organization African Region. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the iNTS disease VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

The Value of Flexible Vaccine Manufacturing Capacity: Value Drivers, Estimation Methods, and Approaches to Value Recognition in Health Technology Assessment

Expanding flexible vaccine manufacturing capacity (FVMC) for routine vaccines could facilitate more timely access to novel vaccines during future pandemics. Vaccine manufacturing capacity is 'flexible' if it is built on a technology platform that allows rapid adaption to new infectious agents. The added value of routine vaccines produced using a flexible platform for pandemic preparedness is not currently recognised in conventional health technology assessment (HTA) methods. We start by examining the current state of play of incentives for FVMC and exploring the relation between flexible and spare capacity. We then establish the key factors for estimating FVMC and draw from established frameworks to identify relevant value drivers. The role of FVMC as a countermeasure against pandemic risks is deemed an additional value attribute that should be recognised. Next, we address the gap in the vaccine-valuation literature between the conceptual understanding of the value of additional FVMC and the availability of accurate and reliable tools for its estimation to facilitate integration into HTA. Three practical approaches for estimating the value of additional FVMC are discussed: stated and revealed preference studies, macroeconomic modelling, and benefit-cost analysis. Lastly, we review how value recognition of additional FVMC can be realised within the HTA process for routine vaccines manufactured on flexible platforms. We argue that, while the value of additional FVMC is uncertain and further research is needed to help to better estimate it, the value of increased pandemic preparedness is likely to be too large to be ignored.

Health and economic impacts of Lassa vaccination campaigns in West Africa

Lassa fever is a zoonotic disease identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as having pandemic potential. This study estimates the health-economic burden of Lassa fever throughout West Africa and projects impacts of a series of vaccination campaigns. We also model the emergence of "Lassa-X" - a hypothetical pandemic Lassa virus variant - and project impacts of achieving 100 Days Mission vaccination targets. Our model predicted 2.7M (95% uncertainty interval: 2.1M-3.4M) Lassa virus infections annually, resulting over ten years in 2.0M (793.8K-3.9M) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The most effective vaccination strategy was a population-wide preventive campaign primarily targeting WHO-classified "endemic" districts. Under conservative vaccine efficacy assumptions, this campaign averted $20.1M ($8.2M-$39.0M) in lost DALY value and $128.2M ($67.2M-$231.9M) in societal costs (International dollars 2021). Reactive vaccination in response to local outbreaks averted just one-tenth the health-economic burden of preventive campaigns. In the event of Lassa-X emerging, spreading throughout West Africa and causing approximately 1.2M DALYs within two years, 100 Days Mission vaccination averted 22% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against disease, and 74% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against both infection and disease. These findings suggest how vaccination could alleviate Lassa fever's burden and assist in pandemic preparedness.

Facilitating the development of urgently required combination vaccines

The essence of a vaccine lies in its ability to elicit a set of immune responses specifically directed at a particular pathogen. Accordingly, vaccines were historically designed, developed, registered, recommended, procured, and administered as monopathogen formulations. Nonetheless, the control and elimination of an astonishing number of diseases was realised only after several once-separate vaccines were provided as combinations. Unfortunately, the current superabundance of recommended and pipeline vaccines is now at odds with the number of acceptable vaccine administrations and feasible health-care visits for vaccine recipients and health-care providers. Yet, few new combinations are in development because, in addition to the scientific and manufacturing hurdles intrinsic to coformulation, developers face a gauntlet of regulatory, policy, and commercialisation obstacles in a milieu still largely designed for monopathogen vaccines. We argue here that national policy makers and public health agencies should prospectively identify and advocate for the development of new multipathogen combination vaccines, and suggest ways to accelerate the regulatory pathways to licensure of combinations and other concrete, innovative steps to mitigate current obstacles.

Special Issue on Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) Vaccines: ETEC Infection and Vaccine-Mediated Immunity

Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) is the most prevalent bacterial pathogen causing young children to suffer acute watery diarrhea in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) [...].

Long-term healthcare utilisation, costs and quality of life after invasive group B Streptococcus disease: a cohort study in five low-income and middle-income countries

INTRODUCTION

There are no published data on the long-term impact of invasive group B Streptococcus disease (iGBS) on economic costs or health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in low-income and middle-income countries. We assessed the impact of iGBS on healthcare utilisation, costs and HRQoL in Argentina, India, Kenya, Mozambique and South Africa.

METHODS

Inpatient and outpatient visits, out-of-pocket (OOP) healthcare payments in the 12 months before study enrolment, and health-state utility of children and caregivers (using the EuroQol 5-Dimensions-3-Level) were collected from iGBS survivors and an unexposed cohort matched on site, age at recruitment and sex. We used logistic or Poisson regression for analysing healthcare utilisation and zero-inflated gamma regression models for family and health system costs. For HRQoL, we used a zero-inflated beta model of disutility pooled data.

RESULTS

161 iGBS-exposed and 439 unexposed children and young adults (age 1-20) were included in the analysis. Compared with unexposed participants, iGBS was associated with increased odds of any healthcare utilisation in India (adjusted OR 11.2, 95% CI 2.9 to 43.1) and Mozambique (6.8, 95% CI 2.2 to 21.1) and more frequent healthcare visits (adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) for India 1.7 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.2) and for Mozambique 6.0 (95% CI 3.2 to 11.2)). iGBS was also associated with more frequent days in inpatient care in India (adjusted IRR 4.0 (95% CI 2.3 to 6.8) and Kenya 6.4 (95% CI 2.9 to 14.3)). OOP payments were higher in the iGBS cohort in India (adjusted mean: Int$682.22 (95% CI Int$364.28 to Int$1000.16) vs Int$133.95 (95% CI Int$72.83 to Int$195.06)) and Argentina (Int$244.86 (95% CI Int$47.38 to Int$442.33) vs Int$52.38 (95% CI Int$-1.39 to Int$106.1)). For all remaining sites, differences were in the same direction but not statistically significant for almost all outcomes. Health-state disutility was higher in iGBS survivors (0.08, 0.04-0.13 vs 0.06, 0.02-0.10).

CONCLUSION

The iGBS health and economic burden may persist for years after acute disease. Larger studies are needed for more robust estimates to inform the cost-effectiveness of iGBS prevention.

An mRNA technology transfer programme and economic sustainability in health care

The World Health Organization (WHO) set up the messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology transfer programme in June 2021 with a development hub in South Africa and 15 partner vaccine producers in middle-income countries. The goal was to support the sustainable development of and access to life-saving vaccines for people in these countries as a means to enhance epidemic preparedness and global public health. This initiative aims to build resilience and strengthen local vaccine research, and development and manufacturing capacity in different regions of the world, especially those areas that could not access coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines in a timely way. This paper outlines the current global vaccine market and summarizes the findings of a case study on the mRNA technology transfer programme conducted from November 2022 to May 2023. The study was guided by the vision of the WHO Council on the Economics of Health for All to build an economy for health using its four work streams of value, finance, innovation and capacity. Based on the findings of the study, we offer a mission-oriented policy framework to support the mRNA technology transfer programme as a pilot for transformative change towards an ecosystem for health innovation for the common good. Parts of this vision have already been incorporated into the governance of the mRNA technology transfer programme, while other aspects, especially the common good approach, still need to be applied to achieve the goals of the programme.

The Full Value of Vaccine Assessments Concept-Current Opportunities and Recommendations

For vaccine development and adoption decisions, the 'Full Value of Vaccine Assessment' (FVVA) framework has been proposed by the WHO to expand the range of evidence available to support the prioritization of candidate vaccines for investment and eventual uptake by low- and middle-income countries. Recent applications of the FVVA framework have already shown benefits. Building on the success of these applications, we see important new opportunities to maximize the future utility of FVVAs to country and global stakeholders and provide a proof-of-concept for analyses in other areas of disease control and prevention. These opportunities include the following: (1) FVVA producers should aim to create evidence that explicitly meets the needs of multiple key FVVA consumers, (2) the WHO and other key stakeholders should develop standardized methodologies for FVVAs, as well as guidance for how different stakeholders can explicitly reflect their values within the FVVA framework, and (3) the WHO should convene experts to further develop and prioritize the research agenda for outcomes and benefits relevant to the FVVA and elucidate methodological approaches and opportunities for standardization not only for less well-established benefits, but also for any relevant research gaps. We encourage FVVA stakeholders to engage with these opportunities.

National Immunization Program Decision Making Using the CAPACITI Decision-Support Tool: User Feedback from Indonesia and Ethiopia

To ensure that limited domestic resources are invested in the most effective interventions, immunization programs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) must prioritize a growing number of new vaccines while considering opportunities to optimize the vaccine portfolio, as well as other components of the health system. There is a strong impetus for immunization decision-making to engage and coordinate various stakeholders across the health system in prioritization. To address this, national immunization program decision-makers in LMICs collaborated with WHO to structure deliberation among stakeholders and document an evidence-based, context-specific, and transparent process for prioritization or selection among multiple vaccination products, services, or strategies. The output of this effort is the Country-led Assessment for Prioritization on Immunization (CAPACITI) decision-support tool, which supports using multiple criteria and stakeholder perspectives to evaluate trade-offs affecting health interventions, taking into account variable data quality. Here, we describe the user feedback from Indonesia and Ethiopia, two initial countries that piloted the CAPACITI decision-support tool, highlighting enabling and constraining factors. Potential immunization program benefits and lessons learned are also summarized for consideration in other settings.

A Practical Guide to Full Value of Vaccine Assessments

Articulating the wide range of health, social and economic benefits that vaccines offer may help to overcome obstacles in the vaccine development pipeline. A framework to guide the assessment and communication of the value of a vaccine-the Full Value of Vaccine Assessment (FVVA)-has been developed by the WHO. The FVVA framework offers a holistic assessment of the value of vaccines, providing a synthesis of evidence to inform the public health need of a vaccine, describing the supply and demand aspects, its market and its impact from a health, financial and economic perspective. This paper provides a practical guide to how FVVAs are developed and used to support investment in vaccines, ultimately leading to sustained implementation in countries. The FVVA includes a range of elements that can be broadly categorised as synthesis, vaccine development narrative and defining vaccine impact and value. Depending on the features of the disease/vaccine in question, different elements may be emphasised; however, a standardised set of elements is recommended for each FVVA. The FVVA should be developed by an expert group who represent a range of stakeholders, perspectives and geographies and ensure a fair, coherent and evidence-based assessment of vaccine value.

MV130 in the Prevention of Recurrent Respiratory Tract Infections: A Retrospective Real-World Study in Children and Adults

Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are among the most common and important problems in clinical medicine, making antibiotics the gold standard therapeutic option regardless of their frequent viral etiology. Their excessive and inappropriate use contributes to the rapid rise of antibiotic resistance and underscores the need for alternative strategies, especially when dealing with recurrent RTIs. Prevention is the ideal alternative, but specific vaccines targeting a wide range of respiratory pathogens are scarce. MV130 is a sublingual bacterial vaccine that induces trained immunity and provides non-specific protection against respiratory pathogens in various clinical settings according to the concept of TIbV (Trained Immunity-based Vaccine). A retrospective real-world study (RWS) was conducted to evaluate the annual incidence of RTIs and the consumption of antibiotics before and after the administration of MV130, using data sourced from the medical records of 599 patients (186 children and 413 adults) who suffered from recurrent RTIs. The median number of infectious episodes in children was significantly reduced by more than 70% from 5 episodes (interquartile range (IQR) 4.0-6.0) to 1 (IQR, 0.0-2.0) (p < 0.001) after MV130. Similarly, in adults, the median number of episodes before MV130 immunization was 5 (IQR, 4.0-6.0), which dropped by more than 80% to 1 (IQR, 0.0-1.0) during the year following MV130 immunization (p < 0.001). The median number of antibiotic courses also significantly decreased for both children and adults by over 80% (p < 0.001). This RWS showed that MV130 is an effective strategy for the prevention of respiratory infections and the reduction of associated antibiotic consumption.

Reassessing potential economic value and health impact of effective Shigella vaccines

The gram-negative bacterium Shigella is a leading cause of diarrheal morbidity and mortality in children in low- and middle-income countries. Several promising vaccine candidates are in late stages of clinical development against this increasingly antibiotic-resistant pathogen. However, considering the increasingly crowded and costly paediatric immunization schedule, and likely advent of other important new vaccines, it is unclear whether introduction of a Shigella vaccine would represent a high priority for international agencies or health ministries in low- and middle-income countries. To determine whether there is a compelling public health value proposition for a Shigella vaccine, we used the World Health Organization's Full Value of Vaccine Assessment analytic framework and formulated five broad scientific, policy, economic and commercial-related propositions regarding the development of a Shigella vaccine. We also explored the current regulatory, clinical, policy and commercial challenges to a Shigella-containing combination vaccine development and adoption. Through a series of literature reviews, expert consultations, social science field studies and model-based analyses, we addressed each of these propositions. As described in a series of separate publications that are synthesized here, we concluded that the economic and public health value of a Shigella vaccine may be greater than previously recognized, particularly if it is found to also be effective against less severe forms of diarrheal disease and childhood stunting. The decision by pharmaceutical companies to develop a standalone vaccine or a multipathogen combination will be a key factor in determining its relative prioritization by various stakeholders in low- and middle-income countries.

Improving Middle-Income Countries Access to Vaccines. A Blueprint to Overcome Current Challenges

The Global Health Consortium at Florida International University developed an end-to-end solution framework based on the input of a diverse panel of experts from middle-income country (MIC) government agencies, public health think tanks, academia, and nonprofit organizations to identify mechanisms to help MIC governments and stakeholders increase access to novel vaccines for infectious diseases. The resultant layout can be deployed to improve vaccine discovery and development, strengthen regulatory processes, and boost vaccine production, access, and implementation. Mechanisms include policies and incentives MIC governments can use to stimulate vaccine investment and activity, as well as actions government agencies can take together with other stakeholders to coordinate efforts or build capabilities. Through a series of individual virtual interviews, we engaged diverse experts from MIC government agencies, public health think tanks, academia, and nonprofit organizations who understand the vaccine ecosystem, immunization policies, and population health financing at global, regional, and country levels. Responses were mapped, and in-depth questions were prepared for a group virtual discussion. This paper is the result of such a group discussion. The panel identified clear opportunities for MICs to improve locally-driven innovations and future access to novel vaccines. It proposes a solution framework for countries considering investing in vaccine research and development and innovation to use as a guide to evaluate the steps they could take to improve such an environment and incentivize innovation in vaccine development. It is hoped that this end-to-end solution framework will become a key resource to help MICs strengthen policies and take more actions to make such improvements.

Economic evaluations of immunization programs as an indispensable tool for policymakers

Introducing new vaccines within national immunization programs requires careful consideration of disease- and vaccine-related issues as well as of the strength of the program and the affected health system. Economic evaluations play an essential role in this process. In this editorial, we set the context and invite contributions for a BMC Health Services Research Collection of articles titled 'Economic Evaluations of Vaccine Programs'.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of measles vaccination through microarray patches in 70 low-income and middle-income countries: mathematical modelling and early-stage economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Microarray patches (MAPs) are a promising technology being developed to reduce barriers to vaccine delivery based on needles and syringes (N&S). To address the evidence gap on the public health value of applying this potential technology to immunisation programmes, we evaluated the health impact on measles burden and cost-effectiveness of introducing measles-rubella MAPs (MR-MAPs) in 70 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

We used an age-structured dynamic model of measles transmission and vaccination to project measles cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life-years during 2030-2040. Compared with the baseline scenarios with continuing current N&S-based practice, we evaluated the introduction of MR-MAPs under different measles vaccine coverage projections and MR-MAP introduction strategies. Costs were calculated based on the ingredients approach, including direct cost of measles treatment, vaccine procurement and vaccine delivery. Model-based burden and cost estimates were derived for individual countries and country income groups. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of introducing MR-MAPs to health opportunity costs.

RESULTS

MR-MAP introduction could prevent 27%-37% of measles burden between 2030 and 2040 in 70 LMICs, compared with the N&S-only immunisation strategy. The largest health impact could be achieved under lower coverage projection and accelerated introduction strategy, with 39 million measles cases averted. Measles treatment cost is a key driver of the net cost of introduction. In countries with a relatively higher income, introducing MR-MAPs could be a cost-saving intervention due to reduced treatment costs. Compared with country-specific health opportunity costs, introducing MR-MAPs would be cost-effective in 16%-81% of LMICs, depending on the MR-MAPs procurement prices and vaccine coverage projections.

CONCLUSIONS

Introducing MR-MAPs in LMICs can be a cost-effective strategy to revitalise measles immunisation programmes with stagnant uptake and reach undervaccinated children. Sustainable introduction and uptake of MR-MAPs has the potential to improve vaccine equity within and between countries and accelerate progress towards measles elimination.

Correspondence to: Estimating the full health and economic benefits of current and future influenza vaccines

We recently published an article in BMC Medicine looking at the potential health and economic impact of paediatric vaccination using next-generation influenza vaccines in Kenya: a modelling study. In their commentary on our article, Lafond et al. highlight the potential importance of the wider benefits of vaccination on cost-effectiveness. Whilst we agree with many points raised in the commentary, we think it raises further interesting discussion points, specifically around model complexity, model assumptions and data availability. These points are both relevant to this manuscript but have wider implications for vaccine cost-effectiveness studies.