Development and validation of a risk prediction score for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Cross-site prognosis prediction for nasopharyngeal carcinoma from incomplete multi-modal data

Accurate prognosis prediction for nasopharyngeal carcinoma based on magnetic resonance (MR) images assists in the guidance of treatment intensity, thus reducing the risk of recurrence and death. To reduce repeated labor and sufficiently explore domain knowledge, aggregating labeled/annotated data from external sites enables us to train an intelligent model for a clinical site with unlabeled data. However, this task suffers from the challenges of incomplete multi-modal examination data fusion and image data heterogeneity among sites. This paper proposes a cross-site survival analysis method for prognosis prediction of nasopharyngeal carcinoma from domain adaptation viewpoint. Utilizing a Cox model as the basic framework, our method equips it with a cross-attention based multi-modal fusion regularization. This regularization model effectively fuses the multi-modal information from multi-parametric MR images and clinical features onto a domain-adaptive space, despite the absence of some modalities. To enhance the feature discrimination, we also extend the contrastive learning technique to censored data cases. Compared with the conventional approaches which directly deploy a trained survival model in a new site, our method achieves superior prognosis prediction performance in cross-site validation experiments. These results highlight the key role of cross-site adaptability of our method and support its value in clinical practice.

Using machine learning algorithms to predict the prognosis of advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma after intensity-modulated radiotherapy

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients after intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) has not been well studied. We aimed to construct prognostic models for advanced NPC patients with stage III-IV after their first treatment with IMRT by using machine learning algorithms and to identify the most important predictors.

METHODS

A total of 427 patients treated in Meizhou People's Hospital in Guangdong province, China from January 1, 2013 to December 12, 2018 were enrolled in this study, with an average follow-up period of 7.16 years from July 2020 to March 2021. Candidate predictors were selected from demographics, clinical features, medical examinations and test results. Three machine learning algorithms were applied to construct advanced NPC prognostic models: logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the model performance. The important predictors of the optimal model for unfavourable prognosis were identified and ranked.

RESULTS

There were 50 (11.7%) NPC-related deaths observed in this study. The mean age of all participants was 49.39±11.29 years, of whom 299 (70.0%) were males. In general, RF showed the best predictive performance with the highest AUC (0.753, 95% CI: 0.609, 0.896), compared to LR (0.736, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.590, 0.881), and DT (0.720, 95% CI: 0.520, 0.921). The six most important predictors identified by RF were Epstein-Barr virus deoxyribonucleic acid, aspartate aminotransferase, body mass index, age, blood glucose level, and alanine aminotransferase.

CONCLUSIONS

We proposed RF as a simple and accurate tool for the evaluation of the prognosis of advanced NPC patients after the treatment with IMRT in clinical settings.

In silico analysis and experimental validation to exhibit anti-nasopharyngeal carcinoma effects of plumbagin, an anti-cancer compound

BACKGROUND

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is publicly known as a malignant tumor. Our previous study reported that plumbagin exhibits potent anti-cancer actions. Nevertheless, more mechanical details of plumbagin against NPC remain unknown. The present study aimed to unmask the core targets/genes and anti-NPC mechanisms involved in the signaling pathways of plumbagin prior to biochemical validation.

METHODS

A network pharmacology approach was employed to respective identification of mutual and core targets/genes in plumbagin and/treating NPC. Molecular docking determination was used to identify core target proteins for biochemical validation using human and cell line samples.

RESULTS

In total, 60 anti-NPC genes of plumbagin were screened out, and then nine core target genes of plumbagin against NPC were identified accordingly. The enrichment findings revealed detailed biological functions and pharmacological pathways of plumbagin against NPC. Moreover, in silico analysis using molecular docking had determined the core targets for further experimental validation, comprising protein kinase B (AKT1) and sarcoma gene (SRC). In human sample validation, clinical NPC sections showed increased positive expression of AKT1 and SRC. Additionally, plumbagin-treated NPC cells resulted in inactivated protein expression of AKT1 and SRC.

CONCLUSION

The re-identified core targets/genes in the molecular docking report may function as plumbagin-related pharmacological targets for treating NPC via experimental validation. Furthermore, additional anti-NPC molecular mechanisms of plumbagin action were disclosed on the basis of enrichment findings. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

MRI-based random survival Forest model improves prediction of progression-free survival to induction chemotherapy plus concurrent Chemoradiotherapy in Locoregionally Advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Background

The present study aimed to explore the application value of random survival forest (RSF) model and Cox model in predicting the progression-free survival (PFS) among patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LANPC) after induction chemotherapy plus concurrent chemoradiotherapy (IC + CCRT).

Methods

Eligible LANPC patients underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan before treatment were subjected to radiomics feature extraction. Radiomics and clinical features of patients in the training cohort were subjected to RSF analysis to predict PFS and were tested in the testing cohort. The performance of an RSF model with clinical and radiologic predictors was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and Delong test and compared with Cox models based on clinical and radiologic parameters. Further, the Kaplan-Meier method was used for risk stratification of patients.

Results

A total of 294 LANPC patients (206 in the training cohort; 88 in the testing cohort) were enrolled and underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans before treatment. The AUC value of the clinical Cox model, radiomics Cox model, clinical + radiomics Cox model, and clinical + radiomics RSF model in predicting 3- and 5-year PFS for LANPC patients was [0.545 vs 0.648 vs 0.648 vs 0.899 (training cohort), and 0.566 vs 0.736 vs 0.730 vs 0.861 (testing cohort); 0.556 vs 0.604 vs 0.611 vs 0.897 (training cohort), and 0.591 vs 0.661 vs 0.676 vs 0.847 (testing cohort), respectively]. Delong test showed that the RSF model and the other three Cox models were statistically significant, and the RSF model markedly improved prediction performance (P < 0.001). Additionally, the PFS of the high-risk group was lower than that of the low-risk group in the RSF model (P < 0.001), while comparable in the Cox model (P > 0.05).

Conclusion

The RSF model may be a potential tool for prognostic prediction and risk stratification of LANPC patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-09832-6.