Where have all the mosquito nets gone? Spatial modelling reveals mosquito net distributions across Tanzania do not target optimal Anopheles mosquito habitats

Insights and challenges of insecticide resistance modelling in malaria vectors: a review

BACKGROUND

Malaria is one of the most devastating tropical diseases, resulting in loss of lives each year, especially in children under the age of 5 years. Malaria burden, related deaths and stall in the progress against malaria transmission is evident, particularly in countries that have moderate or high malaria transmission. Hence, mitigating malaria spread requires information on the distribution of vectors and the drivers of insecticide resistance (IR). However, owing to the impracticality in establishing the critical need for real-world information at every location, modelling provides an informed best guess for such information. Therefore, this review examines the various methodologies used to model spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal patterns of IR within populations of malaria vectors, incorporating pest-biology parameters, adopted ecological principles, and the associated modelling challenges.

METHODS

The review focused on the period ending March 2023 without imposing restrictions on the initial year of publication, and included articles sourced from PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus. It was also limited to publications that deal with modelling of IR distribution across spatial and temporal dimensions and excluded articles solely focusing on insecticide susceptibility tests or articles not published in English. After rigorous selection, 33 articles met the review's elibility criteria and were subjected to full-text screening.

RESULTS

Results show the popularity of Bayesian geostatistical approaches, and logistic and static models, with limited adoption of dynamic modelling approaches for spatial and temporal IR modelling. Furthermore, our review identifies the availability of surveillance data and scarcity of comprehensive information on the potential drivers of IR as major impediments to developing holistic models of IR evolution.

CONCLUSIONS

The review notes that incorporating pest-biology parameters, and ecological principles into IR models, in tandem with fundamental ecological concepts, potentially offers crucial insights into the evolution of IR. The results extend our knowledge of IR models that provide potentially accurate results, which can be translated into policy recommendations to combat the challenge of IR in malaria control.

Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.

Investigation and molecular identification of Eimeria sp. sampled from captive forest musk deer

Forest musk deer (Moschus berezovskii) is an endangered, protected species in China. Intestinal coccidiosis is a significant problem for captive forest musk deer. However, there are few reports on the prevalence and molecular characteristics of Eimeria sp. in forest musk deer. We sought to investigate the prevalence of Eimeria sp. in forest musk deer in the Sichuan and Shaanxi provinces in China. We also investigated the molecular characteristics of Eimeria sp. by analyzing the 18S rRNA gene. We collected a total of 328 fecal samples from forest musk deer on seven farms throughout the Sichuan and Shaanxi provinces. We extracted this parasite’s DNA and used this as a template for nested PCR amplification. The 18S rRNA gene fragment was associated with the plasmid vector, and these products were introduced into Escherichia coli (DH5α). The cultured bacterial solution was used as a PCR reaction template for identification purposes. We collected 328 fecal samples from forest musk deer in Lixian (n = 54), Maoxian (n = 52), Ma’erkang (n = 49), Dujiangyan (n = 55), Hanyuan (n = 41), Luding (n = 36) and Weinan (n = 41). One hundred ninety-eight (60.37%) fecal samples tested positive for Eimeria sp. . In our analysis of the 18S rRNA gene we found 34 types of Eimeria sp. with a similarity of 90.5–100%. We constructed a phylogenetic tree based on the parasite’s 18S rRNA gene sequence. Our findings indicated that the Eimeria sp. that parasitized the intestinal tract of forest musk deer was closely related to Eimeria alabamensis from Bos taurus and Eimeria ahsata from Ovis aries. To the best of our knowledge, ours was the first investigation and molecular identification of Eimeria sp. sampled from captive forest musk deer in China. Our results provide epidemiological data for the monitoring and prevention of Eimeria sp. in captive forest musk deer.

Leveraging risk maps of malaria vector abundance to guide control efforts reduces malaria incidence in Eastern Province, Zambia

Although transmission of malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases is geographically heterogeneous, in sub-Saharan Africa risk maps are rarely used to determine which communities receive vector control interventions. We compared outcomes in areas receiving different indoor residual spray (IRS) strategies in Eastern Province, Zambia: (1) concentrating IRS interventions within a geographical area, (2) prioritizing communities to receive IRS based on predicted probabilities of Anopheles funestus, and (3) prioritizing communities to receive IRS based on observed malaria incidence at nearby health centers. Here we show that the use of predicted probabilities of An. funestus to guide IRS implementation saw the largest decrease in malaria incidence at health centers, a 13% reduction (95% confidence interval = 5-21%) compared to concentrating IRS geographically and a 37% reduction (95% confidence interval = 30-44%) compared to targeting IRS based on health facility incidence. These results suggest that vector control programs could produce better outcomes by prioritizing IRS according to malaria-vector risk maps.

A Scoping Review of Spatial Analysis Approaches Using Health Survey Data in Sub-Saharan Africa

Spatial analysis has become an increasingly used analytic approach to describe and analyze spatial characteristics of disease burden, but the depth and coverage of its usage for health surveys data in Sub-Saharan Africa are not well known. The objective of this scoping review was to conduct an evaluation of studies using spatial statistics approaches for national health survey data in the SSA region. An organized literature search for studies related to spatial statistics and national health surveys was conducted through PMC, PubMed/Medline, Scopus, NLM Catalog, and Science Direct electronic databases. Of the 4,193 unique articles identified, 153 were included in the final review. Spatial smoothing and prediction methods were predominant (n = 108), followed by spatial description aggregation (n = 25), and spatial autocorrelation and clustering (n = 19). Bayesian statistics methods and lattice data modelling were predominant (n = 108). Most studies focused on malaria and fever (n = 47) followed by health services coverage (n = 38). Only fifteen studies employed nonstandard spatial analyses (e.g., spatial model assessment, joint spatial modelling, accounting for survey design). We recommend that for future spatial analysis using health survey data in the SSA region, there must be an improve recognition and awareness of the potential dangers of a naïve application of spatial statistical methods. We also recommend a wide range of applications using big health data and the future of data science for health systems to monitor and evaluate impacts that are not well understood at local levels.

First database of the spatial distribution of Eimeria species of cattle, sheep and goats in Mexico

Ruminant coccidiosis is a gastrointestinal disease caused by parasites of the genus Eimeria. Environmental and climatic factors are relevant for the development, survival, and transmission of coccidiosis because Eimeria oocysts are able to survive in the environment for several weeks or months in favorable conditions of moderate heat and moisture. The aim of the present study was to georeference, for the first time, the locations of Eimeria occurrences in Mexico from 1961 to 2018. A dataset was created for 3414 reports of Eimeria occurrences in cattle, sheep, and goats in Mexico. Twelve species of Eimeria that infect cattle were recorded, 11 Eimeria species of sheep are present in Mexico, and eight species of goats are geographically distributed in the country. In the current findings, it has been observed that Eimeria colonizes mainly the temperate semihumid, temperate humid, warm humid, and warm semihumid areas during spring and summer in animals younger than 1 year of age. Macroenvironmental variables like temperature and rainfall influence the prevalence of Eimeria in cattle, sheep, and goats, and for some species, the rearing system, facility type, farm size, and altitude affect the occurrence of this parasite. Results may support future studies aimed at reducing the disease prevalence of the parasite in endemic regions of Mexico. The use of recorded cases and climate variables yields a more comprehensive perspective of the epidemiology of eimeriosis, which would be difficult to infer from laboratory studies alone.

Nets versus spraying: A spatial modelling approach reveals indoor residual spraying targets Anopheles mosquito habitats better than mosquito nets in Tanzania

The global implementation of malaria interventions has averted hundreds of millions of clinical malaria cases in the last decade. This study assesses predicted Anopheles mosquito distributions across the United Republic of Tanzania before large-scale insecticide-treated net (ITN) rollouts and indoor residual spraying (IRS) initiatives to determine whether mosquito net usage by children under the age of five and IRS are targeted to areas where historical evidence indicates mosquitoes thrive. Demographic and Health Surveys data from 2011–2012 and 2015–2016 include detailed measurements of mosquito net and IRS use across Tanzania. Anopheline data are far less intensively collected, but we constructed a Maxent-built baseline mosquito habitat suitability (MHS) map (AUC = 0.872) with Tanzanian Anopheles occurrence records from 1999–2003. This MHS model was tested against independently-observed georeferenced Plasmodium falciparum cases from the Malaria Atlas Project, with ~87% of cases from 1999–2003 (n = 107) and ~84% of cases from 1985–2012 (n = 919) occurring in areas of high predicted suitability for mosquitoes. We compared the validated MHS with subsequent malaria interventions using mixed effects logistic regression. Specifically, we assessed whether Anopheles habitat suitability related to the frequency that ≥1 child in a household reportedly slept under a mosquito net when that intervention later became widely available, and whether IRS was reportedly applied to dwellings over a one-year period. There was no evidence that mosquito net use the night before the survey related to MHS from 2011–2012 and marginally significant evidence (p<0.05) from 2015–2016 (β = 1.466, 95% C.I. = 0.848–2.103, marginal R² = 0.020, respectively). However, the likelihood of IRS treatments rose relatively strongly in the 12 months prior to both surveys (β = 13.466, 95% C.I. = 10.488–16.456, marginal R² = 0.144, and β = 6.817, 95% C.I. = 5.439–8.303, marginal R² = 0.136, respectively). IRS treatments have therefore been targeted more effectively than mosquito nets toward areas where anopheline habitat suitability was previously found to be high.

Trends of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in two communities of Muheza district North-eastern Tanzania: correlation between parasite prevalence, malaria interventions and rainfall in the context of re-emergence of malaria after two decades of progressively declining transmission

Background

Although the recent decline of malaria burden in some African countries has been attributed to a scale-up of interventions, such as bed nets (insecticide-treated bed nets, ITNs/long-lasting insecticidal nets, LLINs), the contribution of other factors to these changes has not been rigorously assessed. This study assessed the trends of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in Magoda (1992–2017) and Mpapayu (1998–2017) villages of Muheza district, North-eastern Tanzania, in relation to changes in the levels of different interventions and rainfall patterns.

Methods

Individuals aged 0–19 years were recruited in cross-sectional surveys to determine the prevalence of P. falciparum infections in relation to different malaria interventions deployed, particularly bed nets and anti-malarial drugs. Trends and patterns of rainfall in Muheza for 35 years (from 1981 to 2016) were assessed to determine changes in the amount and pattern of rainfall and their possible impacts on P. falciparum prevalence besides of those ascribed to interventions.

Results

High prevalence (84–54%) was reported between 1992 and 2000 in Magoda, and 1998 and 2000 in Mpapayu, but it declined sharply from 2001 to 2004 (from 52.0 to 25.0%), followed by a progressive decline between 2008 and 2012 (to ≤ 7% in both villages). However, the prevalence increased significantly from 2013 to 2016 reaching ≥ 20.0% in 2016 (both villages), but declined in the two villages to ≤ 13% in 2017. Overall and age specific P. falciparum prevalence decreased in both villages over the years but with a peak prevalence shifting from children aged 5–9 years to those aged 10–19 years from 2008 onwards. Bed net coverage increased from < 4% in 1998 to > 98% in 2001 and was ≥ 85.0% in 2004 in both villages; followed by fluctuations with coverage ranging from 35.0 to ≤ 98% between 2008 and 2017. The 12-month weighted anomaly standardized precipitation index showed a marked rainfall deficit in 1990–1996 and 1999–2010 coinciding with declining prevalence and despite relatively high bed net coverage from 2000. From 1992, the risk of infection decreased steadily up to 2013 when the lowest risk was observed (RR = 0.07; 95% CI 0.06–0.08, P < 0.001), but it was significantly higher during periods with positive rainfall anomalies (RR = 2.79; 95% CI 2.23–3.50, P < 0.001). The risk was lower among individuals not owning bed nets compared to those with nets (RR = 1.35; 95% CI 1.22–1.49, P < 0.001).

Conclusions

A decline in prevalence up to 2012 and resurgence thereafter was likely associated with changes in monthly rainfall, offset against changing malaria interventions. A sustained surveillance covering multiple factors needs to be undertaken and climate must be taken into consideration when relating control interventions to malaria prevalence.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2395-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

An online survey of personal mosquito-repellent strategies

Background

Mosquito repellents can be an effective method for personal protection against mosquito bites that are a nuisance and carry the risk of transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens like plasmodia, dengue virus, chikungunya virus, and Zika virus. A multitude of commercially available products are currently on the market, some of them highly effective while others have low or no efficacy. Many home remedies of unknown efficacy are also widely used.

Methods

We conducted a survey study to determine what kind of mosquito repellents and other mosquito control strategies people use. Our online survey was focused on unconventional methods and was answered by 5,209 participants.

Results

The majority of participants resided in the United States, were female (67%), had higher education (81% had a university degree), and were 18 to 37 years old (50%). The most commonly used repellent was DEET spray (48%), followed closely by citronella candles (43%) and ‘natural’ repellent sprays (36%). We collected a plethora of home remedies and other strategies people use that warrant further research into their effectiveness.

Discussion

Our study lays the foundation for future research in alternative, unconventional methods to repel mosquitoes that may be culturally acceptable and accessible for people.

Evaluation of active ingredients and larvicidal activity of clove and cinnamon essential oils against Anopheles gambiae (sensu lato)

BACKGROUND

Mosquitoes are well-known vectors of many diseases including malaria and lymphatic filariasis. Uses of synthetic insecticides are associated with high toxicity, resistance, environmental pollution and limited alternative, effective synthetic insecticides. This study was undertaken to evaluate the larvicidal efficacy of clove and cinnamon essential oils against laboratory Anopheles gambiae (sensu stricto) and wild An. arabiensis larvae.

METHODS

The standard WHO guideline for larvicides evaluation was used, and the GC-MS machine was used for active compounds percentage composition analysis and structures identification. Probit regression analysis was used for LC50 and LC95 calculations while a t-test was used to test for significant differences between laboratory-reared and wild larvae populations in each concentration of plant extract.

RESULTS

Mortality effect of clove and cinnamon essential oils against wild and laboratory-reared larvae had variations indicated by their LC50 and LC95 values. The mortality at different concentrations of cinnamon and clove post-exposure for wild and laboratory-reared larvae were dosage-dependent and were higher for cinnamon than for clove essential oils. The mortality effect following exposure to a blend of the two essential oils was higher for blends containing a greater proportion of cinnamon oil. In the chemical analysis of the active ingredients of cinnamon essential oil, the main chemical content was Eugenol, and the rarest was β-Linalool while for clove essential oil, the main chemical content was Eugenol and the rarest was Bicyclo.

CONCLUSION

The essential oils showed a larvicidal effect which was concentration-dependent for both laboratory and wild collected larvae. The active ingredient compositions triggered different responses in mortality. Further research in small-scale should be conducted with concentrated extracted compounds.

10 Years of Environmental Change on the Slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro and Its Associated Shift in Malaria Vector Distributions

Introduction

Malaria prevalence has declined in the Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania over the past 10 years, particularly at lower altitudes. While this decline has been related to the scale-up of long-lasting insecticidal nets to achieve universal coverage targets, it has also been attributed to changes in environmental factors that are important for enabling and sustaining malaria transmission.

Objectives

Herein, we apply spatial analytical approaches to investigate the impact of environmental and demographic changes, including changes in temperature, precipitation, land cover, and population density, on the range of the major malaria vector species Anopheles arabiensis in two districts of Tanzania, situated on the southern slope of Mount Kilimanjaro. These models are used to identify environmental changes that have occurred over a 10-year period and highlight the implications for malaria transmission in this highland region.

Methods

Entomological data were collected from the Hai and Lower Moshi districts of Tanzania in 2001–2004 and 2014–2015. Vector occurrence data were applied alongside satellite remote sensing indices of climate and land cover, and gridded population data, to develop species distribution models for An. arabiensis for the 2004 and 2014 periods using maximum entropy. Models were compared to assess the relative contribution of different environmental and demographic factors to observed trends in vector species distribution in lowland and highland areas.

Results

Changes in land cover were observed in addition to increased population densities, increased warm season temperature, and decreased wetness at low altitudes. The predicted area and extent of suitable habitat for An. arabiensis declined across the study area over the 10-year period, with notable contraction at lower altitudes, while species range in higher altitude zones expanded. Importantly, deforestation and warmer temperatures at higher altitudes may have created stable areas of suitable vector habitat in the highlands capable of sustaining malaria transmission.

Conclusion

We show that environmental changes have had an important influence on the distribution of malaria vector species in a highland area of northern Tanzania. Highland areas may be at continued risk for sporadic malaria outbreaks despite the overall range contraction of principal vector species at lower altitudes, where malaria transmission remains at low intensity.