Multi-year optimization of malaria intervention: a mathematical model

Core principles of Malakit intervention for transferability in other contexts

To eliminate malaria, all populations must be included. For those who are not reached by the health care system, specific interventions must be tailor-made. An innovative Malakit strategy, based on the distribution of self-diagnosis and self-treatment kits, has been evaluated in the Suriname-French Guiana- Amapá (Brazil) region. The results showed effectiveness and good acceptability. The Malakit intervention is complex and has many components. Its transferability requires adaptation to other populations and regions, while retaining the main features of the intervention. This article provides the keys to adapting, implementing and evaluating it in other contexts facing residual malaria in hard-to-reach and/or mobile populations. The process of transferring this intervention includes: diagnosis of the situation (malaria epidemiology, characteristics of the population affected) to define the relevance of the strategy; determination of the stakeholders and the framework of the intervention (research project or public health intervention); adaptation modalities (adaptation of the kit, training, distribution strategy); the role of community health workers and their need for training and supervision. Finally, evaluation needs are specified in relation to prospects for geographical or temporal extension. Malaria elimination is likely to increasingly involve marginalized people due to climate change and displacement of populations. Evaluation of the transferability and effectiveness of the Malakit strategy in new contexts will be essential to increase and refine the evidence of its value, and to decide whether it could be an additional tool in the arsenal recommended in future WHO guidelines.

Agent-Based Simulation for Seasonal Guinea Worm Disease in Chad Dogs

The campaign to eradicate dracunculiasis (Guinea worm [GW] disease) and its causative pathogen Dracunculus medinensis (GW) in Chad is challenged by infections in domestic dogs, which far outnumber the dwindling number of human infections. We present an agent-based simulation that models transmission of GW between a shared water source and a large population of dogs. The simulation incorporates various potential factors driving the infections including external factors and two currently used interventions, namely, tethering and larvicide water treatments. By defining and estimating infectivity parameters and seasonality factors, we test the simulation model on scenarios where seasonal patterns of dog infections could be driven by the parasite’s life cycle alone or with environmental factors (e.g., temperature and rainfall) that could also affect human or dog behaviors (e.g., fishing versus farming seasons). We show that the best-fitting model includes external factors in addition to the pathogen’s life cycle. From the simulation, we estimate that the basic reproductive number, R₀, is approximately 2.0; our results also show that an infected dog can transmit the infection to 3.6 other dogs, on average, during the month of peak infectivity (April). The simulation results shed light on the transmission dynamics of GWs to dogs and lay the groundwork for reducing the number of infections and eventually interrupting transmission of GW.