Longitudinal effect of CD4 by cotrimoxazole use on malaria incidence among HIV-infected Ugandan adults on antiretroviral therapy: a randomized controlled study

Initiation of anti-retroviral/Trimethoprim-Sulfamethoxazole therapy in a longitudinal cohort of HIV-1 positive individuals in Western Kenya rapidly decreases asymptomatic malarial parasitemia

Interactions between malaria and HIV-1 have important public health implications. Our previous cross-sectional studies showed significant associations between HIV-1 positivity and malarial parasitemia with an increased risk of gametocytemia. In this follow-up longitudinal study, we evaluated these associations to determine the magnitude of asymptomatic parasitemia over time, and to examine the effects of initiating Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) together with the broad-spectrum antibiotic Trimethoprim Sulfamethoxazole (TS) on asymptomatic parasitemia. 300 adult volunteers in a malaria holoendemic region in Western Kenya were enrolled and followed for six months. The study groups were composed of 102 HIV-1 negatives, 106 newly diagnosed HIV-1 positives and 92 HIV-1 positives who were already stable on ART/TS. Blood samples were collected monthly and asymptomatic malarial parasitemia determined using sensitive 18S qPCR. Results showed significantly higher malaria prevalence in the HIV-1 negative group (61.4%) (p=0.0001) compared to HIV-1 positives newly diagnosed (36.5%) and those stable on treatment (31.45%). Further, treatment with ART/TS had an impact on incidence of asymptomatic parasitemia. In volunteers who were malaria PCR-negative at enrollment, the median time to detectable asymptomatic infection was shorter for HIV-1 negatives (149 days) compared to the HIV-1 positives on treatment (171 days) (p=0.00136). Initiation of HIV treatment among the newly diagnosed led to a reduction in malarial parasitemia (expressed as 18S copy numbers/μl) by over 85.8% within one week of treatment and a further reduction by 96% after 2 weeks. We observed that while the impact of ART/TS on parasitemia was long term, treatment with antimalarial Artemether/Lumefantrine (AL) among the malaria RDT positives had a transient effect with individuals getting re-infected after short periods. As was expected, HIV-1 negative individuals had normal CD4+ levels throughout the study. However, CD4+ levels among HIV-1 positives who started treatment were low at enrollment but increased significantly within the first month of treatment. From our association analysis, the decline in parasitemia among the HIV-1 positives on treatment was attributed to TS treatment and not increased CD4+ levels per se. Overall, this study highlights important interactions between HIV-1 and malaria that may inform future use of TS among HIV-infected patients in malaria endemic regions.

Joint modelling of time-to-clinical malaria and parasite count in a cohort in an endemic area

Background

In malaria endemic areas such as sub-Saharan Africa, repeated exposure to malaria results in acquired immunity to clinical disease but not infection. In prospective studies, time-to-clinical malaria and longitudinal parasite count trajectory are often analysed separately which may result in inefficient estimates since these two processes can be associated. Including parasite count as a time-dependent covariate in a model of time-to-clinical malaria episode may also be inaccurate because while clinical malaria disease frequently leads to treatment which may instantly affect the level of parasite count, standard time-to-event models require that time-dependent covariates be external to the event process. We investigated whether jointly modelling time-to-clinical malaria disease and longitudinal parasite count improves precision in risk factor estimates and assessed the strength of association between the hazard of clinical malaria and parasite count.

Methods

Using a cohort data of participants enrolled with uncomplicated malaria in Malawi, a conventional Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) model of time-to-first clinical malaria episode with time-dependent parasite count was compared with three competing joint models. The joint models had different association structures linking a quasi-Poisson mixed-effects of parasite count and event-time Cox PH sub-models.

Results

There were 120 participants of whom 115 (95.8%) had >1 follow-up visit and 100 (87.5%) experienced the episode. Adults >15 years being reference, log hazard ratio for children <5 years was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.17, 1.26) in the joint model with best fit vs. 0.62 (95% CI: 0.04, 1.18) from the conventional Cox PH model. The log hazard ratio for the 5-15 years was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.22, 1.22) in the joint model vs.0.63 (95% CI: 0.11, 1.17) in the Cox PH model. The area under parasite count trajectory was strongly associated with the risk of clinical malaria, with a unit increase corresponding to-0.0012 (95% CI: -0.0021, -0.0004) decrease in log hazard ratio.

Conclusion

Jointly modelling longitudinal parasite count and time-to-clinical malaria disease improves precision in log hazard ratio estimates compared to conventional time-dependent Cox PH model. The improved precision of joint modelling may improve study efficiency and allow for design of clinical trials with relatively lower sample sizes with increased power.