Malaria and large dams in sub-Saharan Africa: future impacts in a changing climate

Projected impact of climate change on human health in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) contribute relatively little to global carbon emissions but are recognised to be among the most vulnerable parts of the world to health-related consequences of climate change. To help inform resilient health systems and health policy strategies, we sought to systematically analyse published projections of the impact of rising global temperatures and other weather-related events on human health in LMICs. A systematic search involving multiple databases was conducted in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines to identify studies with modelled projections of the future impact of climate change on human health. Qualitative studies, reviews and meta-analyses were excluded. The search yielded more than 2500 articles, of which 70 studies involving 37 countries met criteria for inclusion. China, Brazil and India were the most studied countries while the sub-Saharan African region was represented in only 9% of studies. Forty specific health outcomes were grouped into eight categories. Non-disease-specific temperature-related mortality was the most studied health outcome, followed by neglected tropical infections (predominantly dengue), malaria and cardiovascular diseases. Nearly all health outcomes studied were projected to increase in burden and/or experience a geographic shift in prevalence over the next century due to climate change. Progressively severe climate change scenarios were associated with worse health outcomes. Knowledge gaps identified in this analysis included insufficient studies of various high burden diseases, asymmetric distribution of studies across LMICs and limited use of some climate parameters as independent variables. Findings from this review could be the basis for future research to help inform climate mitigation and adaptation programmes aimed at safeguarding population health in LMICs.

Microbiome profile of South Korean vector mosquitoes

This research offers a comprehensive exploration of the microbial communities associated with vector mosquitoes from South Korea. Aedes albopictus, Anopheles sinensis, and Culex molestus are vectors of pathogens, and understanding the intricacies of their microbiome profile is paramount for unraveling their roles in disease transmission dynamics. In this study, we characterized the microbiome of the midguts of adult female vector mosquitoes collected from different locations in South Korea. After DNA extraction from dissected mosquito midguts, we used the Illumina MiSeq next-generation sequencing to obtain sequences spanning the V4 hypervariable region of the bacteria 16S rRNA. Morphological and molecular characterization using 506-bp mitochondrial 16S rRNA was used to identify the mosquito species before amplicon sequencing. Across the three vector mosquitoes surveyed, 21 bacteria genera belonging to 20 families and 5 phyla were discovered. Proteobacteria and Bacteriodota were the major phyla of bacteria associated with the three mosquito species. There were significant differences in the gut microbiome genera composition between the species and little variation in the gut microbiome between individuals of the same mosquito species. Wolbachia is the most dominant genus in Aedes while Aeromonas, Acinetobacter, and unassigned taxa are the most common in An. sinensis. In addition to that, Chromobacterium, Chryseobacterium, and Aeromonas are dominant in Cx. molestus. This study sheds light on the complex interactions between mosquitoes and their microbiome, revealing potential implications for vector competence, disease transmission, and vector control strategies.

Abstruse Side of Climate Change, Impact on Malaria: A Systematic Evidence Review Comparing Iran versus Globally

Background

Infectious outbreaks due to disrupted social and environmental conditions after climate change-induced events complicate disasters. This research aimed to determine the contentions of bioclimatic variables and extreme events on the prevalence of the most common Climate-Sensitive Infectious Disease (CSID); Malaria in Iran.

Methods

The present narrative systematic review study was conducted on the bioclimatic variable impact on the prevalence of malaria, as a common CSID. The search was conducted in 3 sections: global climate change-related studies, disaster related, and studies that were conducted in Iran. The literature search was focused on papers published in English and Persian from Mar 2000 to Dec 2021, using electronic databases; Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, Google Scholar, SID, Magiran, and IranDoc.

Results

Overall, 41 studies met the inclusion criteria. The various types of climatic variables including; Temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and hydrological events including; flood, drought, and cyclones has been reported as a predictor of malaria. The results of studies, inappropriately and often were inconsistent in both Iran and other parts of the world.

Conclusion

Identifying malaria outbreak risks is essential to assess vulnerability, and a starting point to identify where the health system is required to reduce the vulnerability and exposure of the population. The finding of most related studies is not congruent to achieve reliable information, more extensive studies in all climates and regions of the country, by climatic models and high accuracy risk map, using the long period of bioclimatic variables and malaria trend is recommended.

The use of environmental scenarios to project future health effects: a scoping review

Environmental risks are a substantial factor in the current burden of disease, and their role is likely to increase in the future. Model-based scenario analysis is used extensively in environmental sciences to explore the potential effects of human activities on the environment. In this Review, we examine the literature on scenarios modelling environmental effects on health to identify the most relevant findings, common methods used, and important research gaps. Health outcomes and measures related to climate change (n=106) and air pollution (n=30) were most frequently studied. Studies examining future disease burden due to changes or policies related to dietary risks were much less common (n=10). Only a few studies assessed more than two environmental risks (n=3), even though risks can accumulate and interact with each other. Studies predominantly covered high-income countries and Asia. Sociodemographic, vulnerability, and health-system changes were rarely accounted for; thus, assessing the full effect of future environmental changes in an integrative way is not yet possible. We recommend that future models incorporate a broader set of determinants of health to more adequately capture their effect, as well as the effect of mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Increased malaria incidence following irrigation practices in the Endorheic Rift Valley Basin of Sidama Region, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Water resource development practice such as irrigation is key to ensuring economic growth and food security in developing countries. However, unintended public health problems such as malaria linked to such development projects have been a concern. This study aimed to determine the impact of irrigation on malaria incidence and vector mosquito abundance in southern Ethiopia.

METHODS

Eight years' malaria morbidity data were extracted from the medical registers of health facilities in both irrigated and non-irrigated settings. Additionally, adult and larval malaria vector surveys were carried out in both irrigated and non-irrigated villages. The trend of malaria incidence, case distribution across age and sex, seasonality, parasite species proportion, and mosquito density were analyzed and compared between irrigated and non-irrigated villages.

RESULTS

The result showed that annual mean malaria incidence was 6.3 higher in the irrigated (95% CI: 0.7-33.6) than in the non-irrigated villages (95% CI: 1.2-20.6). Although a remarkable declining trend in malaria incidence was observed for four successive years (2013-2017), a significant resurgence between 2018 and 2020 was noted following the introduction of irrigation schemes. The densities of adult Anopheles mosquitoes were 15-fold higher in the irrigated compared to non-irrigated villages. Of the total potential mosquito-breeding habitats surveyed, the majority (93%) were from irrigated villages.

CONCLUSION

Higher malaria incidence, adult Anopheles density, and mosquito-breeding habitat were recorded in the irrigated villages compared to non-irrigated villages. These observations have important implications for the effectiveness of existing malaria interventions. Environmental management could help reduce the breeding of malaria vector mosquitoes around irrigation schemes.

Analysis of bluetongue disease epizootics in sheep of Andhra Pradesh, India using spatial and temporal autocorrelation

Bluetongue (BT) disease poses a constant risk to the livestock population around the world. A better understanding of the risk factors will enable a more accurate prediction of the place and time of high-risk events. Mapping the disease epizootics over a period in a particular geographic area will identify the spatial distribution of disease occurrence. A Geographical Information System (GIS) based methodology to analyze the relationship between bluetongue epizootics and spatial-temporal patterns was used for the years 2000 to 2015 in sheep of Andhra Pradesh, India. Autocorrelation (ACF), partial autocorrelation (PACF), and cross-correlation (CCF) analyses were carried out to find the self-dependency between BT epizootics and their dependencies on environmental factors and livestock population. The association with climatic or remote sensing variables at different months lag, including wind speed, temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference water index (NDWI), land surface temperature (LST), was also examined. The ACF & PACF of BT epizootics with its lag showed a significant positive autocorrelation with a month's lag (r = 0.41). Cross-correlations between the environmental variables and BT epizootics indicated the significant positive correlations at 0, 1, and 2 month's lag of rainfall, relative humidity, normalized difference water index (NDWI), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Spatial autocorrelation analysis estimated the univariate global Moran's I value of 0.21. Meanwhile, the local Moran's I value for the year 2000 (r = 0.32) showed a high degree of spatial autocorrelation. The spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that the BT epizootics in sheep are having considerable spatial association among the outbreaks in nearby districts, and have to be taken care of while making any forecasting or disease prediction with other risk factors.

Emerging and Re-emerging Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases and the Challenges for Control: A Review

Vector-borne emerging and re-emerging diseases pose considerable public health problem worldwide. Some of these diseases are emerging and/or re-emerging at increasing rates and appeared in new regions in the past two decades. Studies emphasized that the interactions among pathogens, hosts, and the environment play a key role for the emergence or re-emergence of these diseases. Furthermore, social and demographic factors such as human population growth, urbanization, globalization, trade exchange and travel and close interactions with livestock have significantly been linked with the emergence and/or re-emergence of vector-borne diseases. Other studies emphasize the ongoing evolution of pathogens, proliferation of reservoir populations, and antimicrobial drug use to be the principal exacerbating forces for emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne infectious diseases. Still other studies equivocally claim that climate change has been associated with appearance and resurgence of vector-borne infectious diseases. Despite the fact that many important emerging and re-emerging vector-borne infectious diseases are becoming better controlled, our success in stopping the many new appearing and resurging vector-borne infectious diseases that may happen in the future seems to be uncertain. Hence, this paper reviews and synthesizes the existing literature to explore global patterns of emerging and re-emerging vector-borne infections and the challenges for their control. It also attempts to give insights to the epidemiological profile of major vector-borne diseases including Zika fever, dengue, West Nile fever, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Chikungunya, Yellow fever, and Rift Valley fever.

The application of drones for mosquito larval habitat identification in rural environments: a practical approach for malaria control?

BACKGROUND

Spatio-temporal trends in mosquito-borne diseases are driven by the locations and seasonality of larval habitat. One method of disease control is to decrease the mosquito population by modifying larval habitat, known as larval source management (LSM). In malaria control, LSM is currently considered impractical in rural areas due to perceived difficulties in identifying target areas. High resolution drone mapping is being considered as a practical solution to address this barrier. In this paper, the authors' experiences of drone-led larval habitat identification in Malawi were used to assess the feasibility of this approach.

METHODS

Drone mapping and larval surveys were conducted in Kasungu district, Malawi between 2018 and 2020. Water bodies and aquatic vegetation were identified in the imagery using manual methods and geographical object-based image analysis (GeoOBIA) and the performances of the classifications were compared. Further, observations were documented on the practical aspects of capturing drone imagery for informing malaria control including cost, time, computing, and skills requirements. Larval sampling sites were characterized by biotic factors visible in drone imagery and generalized linear mixed models were used to determine their association with larval presence.

RESULTS

Imagery covering an area of 8.9 km² across eight sites was captured. Larval habitat characteristics were successfully identified using GeoOBIA on images captured by a standard camera (median accuracy = 98%) with no notable improvement observed after incorporating data from a near-infrared sensor. This approach however required greater processing time and technical skills compared to manual identification. Larval samples captured from 326 sites confirmed that drone-captured characteristics, including aquatic vegetation presence and type, were significantly associated with larval presence.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the potential for drone-acquired imagery to support mosquito larval habitat identification in rural, malaria-endemic areas, although technical challenges were identified which may hinder the scale up of this approach. Potential solutions have however been identified, including strengthening linkages with the flourishing drone industry in countries such as Malawi. Further consultations are therefore needed between experts in the fields of drones, image analysis and vector control are needed to develop more detailed guidance on how this technology can be most effectively exploited in malaria control.

Survivorship of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato in irrigated sugarcane plantation scheme in Ethiopia

Background

To ensure food security, sub-Saharan Africa has initiated massive water resource development projects, such as irrigated agriculture, in recent years. However, such environmental modifications affect the survivorship and development of mosquitoes, which are vectors of different diseases. This study aimed at determining the effects of irrigation practices on development and survivorship of Anopheles gambiae s.l. in Ethiopia.

Methods

A life table experiment was conducted to examine the effect of environmental modification on survivorship of both immature and adult An. gambiae s.l. in irrigated and non-irrigated areas. The pupation rate and development time of the immatures and adult longevity and fecundity were compared between the two settings.

Results

The estimated mean survival time of female An. gambiae s.l. in the irrigated and non-irrigated areas was 37.9 and 31.3 days, respectively. A survival analysis showed that adult females of An. gambiae s.l. placed in an irrigated area lived significantly longer than those in a non-irrigated area (χ2 = 18.3, df = 1, P <0.001), and An. gambiae s.l. females lived significantly longer than males in both areas (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Adult An. gambiae s.l. survivorship was found to be enhanced in the irrigated area compared to non-irrigated area. Longer survival of adult mosquitoes in irrigated areas could have important implications for vectorial capacity and hence malaria transmission.

Prevalence, characteristics and risk factors of imported and local malaria cases in North-Western Province, Zambia: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Imported malaria is a major challenge for countries that are in malaria elimination stage such as Zambia. Legitimate cross-border activities add to the risk of transmission, necessitating determination of prevalence, characteristics and risk factors of imported and local malaria.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted in 103 consented child and adult patients with clinical malaria symptoms, from selected health facilities in north-western Zambia. Patient demographic data and blood samples for malaria microscopy and full blood count were obtained. Chi-square and penalized logistic regression were performed to describe the characteristics and assess the risk factors of imported and local malaria in North-Western Province.

RESULTS

Overall, malaria prevalence was 78.6% with 93.8% Plasmodium falciparum and 6.2% other species. The local cases were 72 (88.9%) while the imported were 9 (11.1%) out of the 81 positive participants. About 98.6% of the local cases were P. falciparum compared to 55.6% (χ2 = 52.4; p < 0.01) P. falciparum among the imported cases. Among the imported cases, 44% were species other than P. falciparum (χ2 = 48; p < 0.01) while among the local cases only 1.4% were. Gametocytes were present in 44% of the imported malaria cases and only in 2.8% of the local cases (χ2 = 48; p < 0.01). About 48.6% of local participants had severe anaemia compared to 33.3% of participants from the two neighbouring countries who had (χ2 = 4.9; p = 0.03). In the final model, only country of residence related positively to presence of species other than P. falciparum (OR = 39.0, CI [5.9, 445.9]; p < 0.01) and presence of gametocytes (OR = 23.1, CI [4.2, 161.6]; p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Malaria prevalence in North-Western Province is high, with P. falciparum as the predominant species although importation of Plasmodium ovale and Plasmodium malariae is happening as well. Country of residence of patients is a major risk factor for malaria species and gametocyte presence. The need for enhanced malaria control with specific focus on border controls to detect and treat, for specific diagnosis and treatment according to species obtaining, for further research in the role of species and gametocytaemia in imported malaria, cannot be overemphasized.

Impact of an Irrigation Dam on the Transmission and Diversity of Plasmodium falciparum in a Seasonal Malaria Transmission Area of Northern Ghana

Water bodies such as dams are known to alter the local transmission patterns of a number of infectious diseases, especially those transmitted by insects and other arthropod vectors. The impact of an irrigation dam on submicroscopic asexual parasite carriage in individuals living in a seasonal malaria transmission area of northern Ghana was investigated. A total of 288 archived DNA samples from two cross-sectional surveys in two communities in the Bongo District of Northern Ghana were analysed. Parasite density was determined by light microscopy and PCR, and parasite diversity was assessed by genotyping of the polymorphic Plasmodium falciparum msp2 block-3 region. Submicroscopic parasitaemia was estimated as the proportional difference between positive samples identified by PCR and microscopy. Dry season submicroscopic parasite prevalence was significantly higher (71.0%, p=0.013) at the dam site compared with the nondam site (49.2%). Similarly, wet season submicroscopic parasite prevalence was significantly higher at the dam site (54.5%, p=0.008) compared with the nondam site (33.0%). There was no difference in parasite density between sites in the dry season (p=0.90) and in the wet season (p=0.85). Multiplicity of infection (MOI) based on PCR data was significantly higher at the dam site compared with the nondam site during the dry season (p < 0.0001) but similar between sites during the wet season. MOI at the nondam site was significantly higher in the wet season than in the dry season (2.49, 1.26, p < 0.0001) but similar between seasons at the dam site. Multivariate analysis showed higher odds of carrying submicroscopic parasites at the dam site in both dry season (OR = 7.46, 95% CI = 3.07–18.15) and in wet season (OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.04–2.86). The study findings suggest that large water bodies impact year-round carriage of submicroscopic parasites and sustain Plasmodium transmission.

Climate and poverty in Africa South of the Sahara

To estimate the effects of weather conditions on welfare globally, cross-country comparisons need to rely on international poverty lines and comparable data sources at the micro-level. To this end, nationally representative household surveys can offer a useful instrument, also at the sub-national level. This study seeks to expand the existing knowledge on the determinants of poverty in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA), examining how long-term climatic conditions and year-specific weather shocks affect expenditure per capita. We take advantage of a novel and unique dataset combining consumption-based household surveys for 24 SSA countries -representative of more than half of the African population and two thirds of SSA- and geospatial information on agro-climatic conditions, market access and other spatial covariates of poverty. To our knowledge, it is the first time that a welfare-based, multidisciplinary, micro-level dataset with such wide spatial coverage has been assembled and examined. Our analysis relies on a linear and spatial model at the household- and district-level, respectively, both controlling for socio-economic, demographic, and geographic confounding factors. Results are consistent across econometric approaches, showing that living in more humid areas is positively associated with welfare, while the opposite occurs living in hotter areas, as existing literature shows. Flood shocks -defined as annual rainfall higher than one standard deviation from the 50-year average- are associated to a 35% decrease in total and food per-capita consumption and 17 percentage point increase in extreme poverty. On the other hand, extreme shortages of rain and heat shocks show an uncertain effect, even when estimates control for spatial correlation between welfare and weather conditions using the spatial error correction model. Given the heterogeneous effects of climatic events across SSA macro-regions, local-specific adaptation and mitigation strategies are suggested to help bringing households on a sustainable path.

Malaria around large dams in Africa: effect of environmental and transmission endemicity factors

Background

The impact of large dams on malaria has received widespread attention. However, understanding how dam topography and transmission endemicity influence malaria incidences is limited.

Methods

Data from the European Commission’s Joint Research Center and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission were used to determine reservoir perimeters and shoreline slope of African dams. Georeferenced data from the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) were used to estimate malaria incidence rates in communities near reservoir shorelines. Population data from the WorldPop database were used to estimate the population at risk of malaria around dams in stable and unstable areas.

Results

The data showed that people living near (< 5 km) large dams in sub-Saharan Africa grew from 14.4 million in 2000 to 18.7 million in 2015. Overall, across sub-Saharan Africa between 0.7 and 1.6 million malaria cases per year are attributable to large dams. Whilst annual malaria incidence declined markedly in both stable and unstable areas between 2000 and 2015, the malaria impact of dams appeared to increase in unstable areas, but decreased in stable areas. Shoreline slope was found to be the most important malaria risk factor in dam-affected geographies, explaining 41–82% (P < 0.001) of the variation in malaria incidence around reservoirs.

Conclusion

Gentler, more gradual shoreline slopes were associated with much greater malaria risk. Dam-related environmental variables such as dam topography and shoreline slopes are an important factor that should be considered in efforts to predict and control malaria around dams.

The effect of global change on mosquito-borne disease

More than 80% of the global population is at risk of a vector-borne disease, with mosquito-borne diseases being the largest contributor to human vector-borne disease burden. Although many global processes, such as land-use and socioeconomic change, are thought to affect mosquito-borne disease dynamics, research to date has strongly focused on the role of climate change. Here, we show, through a review of contemporary modelling studies, that no consensus on how future changes in climatic conditions will impact mosquito-borne diseases exists, possibly due to interacting effects of other global change processes, which are often excluded from analyses. We conclude that research should not focus solely on the role of climate change but instead consider growing evidence for additional factors that modulate disease risk. Furthermore, future research should adopt new technologies, including developments in remote sensing and system dynamics modelling techniques, to enable a better understanding and mitigation of mosquito-borne diseases in a changing world.

Impact of past and on-going changes on climate and weather on vector-borne diseases transmission: a look at the evidence

Background

The climate variables that directly influence vector-borne diseases’ ecosystems are mainly temperature and rainfall. This is not only because the vectors bionomics are strongly dependent upon these variables, but also because most of the elements of the systems are impacted, such as the host behavior and development and the pathogen amplification. The impact of the climate changes on the transmission patterns of these diseases is not easily understood, since many confounding factors are acting together. Consequently, knowledge of these impacts is often based on hypothesis derived from mathematical models. Nevertheless, some direct evidences can be found for several vector-borne diseases.

Main body

Evidences of the impact of climate change are available for malaria, arbovirus diseases such as dengue, and many other parasitic and viral diseases such as Rift Valley Fever, Japanese encephalitis, human African trypanosomiasis and leishmaniasis. The effect of temperature and rainfall change as well as extreme events, were found to be the main cause for outbreaks and are alarming the global community. Among the main driving factors, climate strongly influences the geographical distribution of insect vectors, which is rapidly changing due to climate change. Further, in both models and direct evidences, climate change is seen to be affecting vector-borne diseases more strikingly in fringe of different climatic areas often in the border of transmission zones, which were once free of these diseases with human populations less immune and more receptive. The impact of climate change is also more devastating because of the unpreparedness of Public Health systems to provide adequate response to the events, even when climatic warning is available. Although evidences are strong at the regional and local levels, the studies on impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases and health are producing contradictory results at the global level.

Conclusions

In this paper we discuss the current state of the results and draw on evidences from malaria, dengue and other vector-borne diseases to illustrate the state of current thinking and outline the need for further research to inform our predictions and response.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-019-0565-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Malaria Transmission around the Memve'ele Hydroelectric Dam in South Cameroon: A Combined Retrospective and Prospective Study, 2000⁻2016

Dam constructions are considered a great concern for public health. The current study aimed to investigate malaria transmission in the Nyabessan village around the Memve'ele dam in South Cameroon. Adult mosquitoes were captured by human landing catches in Nyabessan before and during dam construction in 2000-2006 and 2014-2016 respectively, as well as in the Olama village, which was selected as a control. Malaria vectors were morphologically identified and analyzed for Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein detection and molecular identification of Anopheles (A.) gambiae species. Overall, ten malaria vector species were identified among 12,189 Anopheles specimens from Nyabessan (N = 6127) and Olama (N = 6062), including A. gambiae Giles (1902), A. coluzzii Coetzee (2013), A. moucheti Evans (1925), A. ovengensis Awono (2004), A. nili Theobald (1903), A. paludis Theobald (1900), A. zieanni, A. marshallii Theobald (1903), A. coustani Laveran (1900), and A. obscurus Grünberg (1905). In Nyabessan, A. moucheti and A. ovengensis were the main vector species before dam construction (16-50 bites/person/night-b/p/n, 0.26-0.71 infective bites/person/night-ib/p/n) that experienced a reduction of their role in disease transmission in 2016 (3-35 b/p/n, 0-0.5 ib/p/n) (p < 0.005). By contrast, the role of A. gambiae s.l. and A. paludis increased (11-38 b/p/n, 0.75-1.2 ib/p/n) (p < 0.01). In Olama, A. moucheti remained the main malaria vector species throughout the study period (p = 0.5). These findings highlight the need for a strong vector-borne disease surveillance and control system around the Memve'ele dam.

Environmental Determinants of Malaria Transmission Around the Koka Reservoir in Ethiopia

New dam construction is known to exacerbate malaria transmission in Africa as the vectors of malaria-Anopheles mosquitoes-use bodies of water as breeding sites. Precise environmental mechanisms of how reservoirs exacerbate malaria transmission are yet to be identified. Understanding of these mechanisms should lead to a better assessment of the impacts of dam construction and to new prevention strategies. Combining extensive multiyear field surveys around the Koka Reservoir in Ethiopia and rigorous model development and simulation studies, environmental mechanisms of malaria transmission around the reservoir were examined. Most comprehensive and detailed malaria transmission model, Hydrology, Entomology, and Malaria Transmission Simulator, was applied to a village adjacent to the reservoir. Significant contributions to the dynamics of malaria transmission are shaped by wind profile, marginal pools, temperature, and shoreline locations. Wind speed and wind direction influence Anopheles populations and malaria transmission during the major and secondary mosquito seasons. During the secondary mosquito season, a noticeable influence was also attributed to marginal pools. Temperature was found to play an important role, not so much in Anopheles population dynamics, but in malaria transmission dynamics. Change in shoreline locations drives malaria transmission dynamics, with closer shoreline locations to the village making malaria transmission more likely. Identified environmental mechanisms help in predicting malaria transmission seasons and in developing village relocation strategies upon dam construction to minimize the risk of malaria.

Dynamics of freshwater snails and Schistosoma infection prevalence in schoolchildren during the construction and operation of a multipurpose dam in central Côte d'Ivoire

Background

The construction and operation of small multipurpose dams in Africa have a history of altering the transmission of water-based diseases, including schistosomiasis. The current study was designed to investigate the abundance and dynamics of schistosomiasis intermediate host snails and Schistosoma infections in humans during the construction and the first years of operation of a small multipurpose dam in Côte d’Ivoire.

Methods

The study was carried out in Raffierkro and four neighbouring villages in central Côte d’Ivoire between 2007 and 2012. Snails were collected by two experienced investigators using scoops and forceps for 15 min at each site. Snails were identified at genera and, whenever possible, species level, and subjected to testing for cercarial shedding. Schoolchildren aged 6–15 years were examined once every year for Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni infection, using urine filtration and duplication Kato-Katz thick smears, respectively. Additionally, 551 adults were examined for Schistosoma infection before (June 2007) and 359 individuals 2 years after dam construction (June 2009).

Results

Overall, 1 700 snails belonging to nine different genera were collected from 19 sampling sites. Bulinus (potential intermediate host snails of S. haematobium) and Pila were the most common genera, whereas Biomphalaria (potential intermediate host snail of S. mansoni), Lymnaea, Physa and Melanoides were found in two villages. During the first-year sampling period, 65 snails were collected, of which 13 (20%) were schistosomiasis intermediate hosts. In subsequent years, out of 1 635 snails collected, 1 079 (66%) were identified as potential intermediate host for schistosomiasis, but none were shedding cercariae. The prevalence of S. mansoni among adults in the study area was low (0.4% in 2007 and 0.3% in 2009), whereas the prevalence of S. haematobium declined from 13.9% to 2.9% in this two-year period.

Conclusions

The low prevalence of schistosomiasis in humans and the absence of infected intermediate host snails during the construction and early phase of operation of a small multipurpose dam suggest that there was no or only very little local transmission. However, the considerable increase in the number of intermediate host snails and their dispersion in irrigation canals call for rigorous surveillance, so that adequate public health measures can be taken in case of early signs of an outbreak.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40249-017-0305-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Assessing the Risk Factors Associated with Malaria in the Highlands of Ethiopia: What Do We Need to Know?

Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. Following the catastrophic malaria outbreak in 2003⁻2004, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) took drastic public health actions to lower the burden of malaria. The FMoH achieved significant declines in malaria mortality and incidence, and recently declared its objective to achieve malaria elimination in low malaria transmission areas of Ethiopia by 2020. However, while the overall malaria prevalence has decreased, unpredictable outbreaks increasingly occur irregularly in regions previously considered "malaria-free". Such outbreaks have disastrous consequences on populations of these regions as they have no immunity against malaria. The Amhara Region accounts for 31% of Ethiopia's malaria burden and is targeted for malaria elimination by the FMoH. Amhara's epidemiological surveillance system faces many challenges to detect in a timely manner the unpredictable and irregular malaria outbreaks that occur in areas of otherwise low transmission. Despite the evidence of a shift in malaria transmission patterns, Amhara's malaria control interventions remain constrained to areas that are historically known to have stable malaria transmission. This paper discusses the influence of temperature and precipitation variability, entomological parameters, and human population mobility on malaria transmission patterns across the Amhara Region, and in particular, in areas of unstable transmission. We argue that malaria epidemiological surveillance systems can be improved by accounting for population movements in addition to environmental and entomological factors. However, to date, no study has statistically analyzed the interplay of population dynamics on environmental and entomological drivers of malaria transmission.