Comparison of statistical models to estimate parasite growth rate in the induced blood stage malaria model

Pre-vaccination monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio as a biomarker for the efficacy of malaria candidate vaccines: A subgroup analysis of pooled clinical trial data

BACKGROUND

Pre-vaccination monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio was previously suggested as a marker for malaria vaccine effectiveness. We investigated the potential of this cell ratio as a marker for malaria vaccine efficacy and effectiveness. Effectiveness was investigated by using clinical malaria endpoint, and efficacy was investigated by using surrogate endpoints of Plasmodium falciparum prepatent period, parasite density, and multiplication rates in a controlled human malaria infection trial (CHMI).

METHODS

We evaluated the correlation between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and RTS,S vaccine effectiveness using Cox regression modeling with clinical malaria as the primary endpoint. Of the 1704 participants in the RTS,S field trial, data on monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio was available for 842 participants, of whom our analyses were restricted. We further used Spearman Correlations and Cox regression modeling to evaluate the correlation between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and Whole Sporozoite malaria vaccine efficacy using the surrogate endpoints. Of the 97 participants in the controlled human malaria infection vaccine trials, hematology and parasitology information were available for 82 participants, of whom our analyses were restricted.

RESULTS

The unadjusted efficacy of RTS,S malaria vaccine was 54% (95% CI: 37%-66%, p <0.001). No correlation was observed between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and RTS,S vaccine efficacy (Hazard Rate (HR):0.90, 95%CI:0.45-1.80; p = 0.77). The unadjusted efficacy of Whole Sporozoite malaria vaccine in the appended dataset was 17.6% (95%CI:10%-28.5%, p<0.001). No association between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and the Whole Sporozoite malaria vaccine was found against either the prepatent period (HR = 1.16; 95%CI:0.51-2.62, p = 0.72), parasite density (rho = 0.004, p = 0.97) or multiplication rates (rho = 0.031, p = 0.80).

CONCLUSION

Monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio alone may not be an adequate marker for malaria vaccine efficacy. Further investigations on immune correlates and underlying mechanisms of immune protection against malaria could provide a clearer explanation of the differences between those protected in comparison with those not protected against malaria by vaccination.

Haematological response in experimental human Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria

Background

Malaria-associated anaemia, arising from symptomatic, asymptomatic and submicroscopic infections, is a significant cause of morbidity worldwide. Induced blood stage malaria volunteer infection studies (IBSM-VIS) provide a unique opportunity to evaluate the haematological response to early Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection.

Methods

This study was an analysis of the haemoglobin, red cell counts, and parasitaemia data from 315 participants enrolled in IBSM-VIS between 2012 and 2019, including 269 participants inoculated with the 3D7 strain of P. falciparum (Pf3D7), 15 with an artemisinin-resistant P. falciparum strain (PfK13) and 46 with P. vivax. Factors associated with the fractional fall in haemoglobin (Hb-FF) were evaluated, and the malaria-attributable erythrocyte loss after accounting for phlebotomy-related losses was estimated. The relative contribution of parasitized erythrocytes to the malaria-attributable erythrocyte loss was also estimated.

Results

The median peak parasitaemia prior to treatment was 10,277 parasites/ml (IQR 3566–27,815), 71,427 parasites/ml [IQR 33,236–180,213], and 34,840 parasites/ml (IQR 13,302–77,064) in participants inoculated with Pf3D7, PfK13, and P. vivax, respectively. The median Hb-FF was 10.3% (IQR 7.8–13.3), 14.8% (IQR 11.8–15.9) and 11.7% (IQR 8.9–14.5) in those inoculated with Pf3D7, PfK13 and P. vivax, respectively, with the haemoglobin nadir occurring a median 12 (IQR 5–21), 15 (IQR 7–22), and 8 (IQR 7–15) days following inoculation. In participants inoculated with P. falciparum, recrudescence was associated with a greater Hb-FF, while in those with P. vivax, the Hb-FF was associated with a higher pre-treatment parasitaemia and later day of anti-malarial treatment. After accounting for phlebotomy-related blood losses, the estimated Hb-FF was 4.1% (IQR 3.1–5.3), 7.2% (IQR 5.8–7.8), and 4.9% (IQR 3.7–6.1) in participants inoculated with Pf3D7, PfK13, and P. vivax, respectively. Parasitized erythrocytes were estimated to account for 0.015% (IQR 0.006–0.06), 0.128% (IQR 0.068–0.616) and 0.022% (IQR 0.008–0.082) of the malaria-attributable erythrocyte loss in participants inoculated with Pf3D7, PfK13, and P. vivax, respectively.

Conclusion

Early experimental P. falciparum and P. vivax infection resulted in a small but significant fall in haemoglobin despite parasitaemia only just at the level of microscopic detection. Loss of parasitized erythrocytes accounted for < 0.2% of the total malaria-attributable haemoglobin loss.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-04003-7.

Seeking an optimal dosing regimen for OZ439/DSM265 combination therapy for treating uncomplicated falciparum malaria

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs), the first-line treatments for uncomplicated falciparum malaria, has been declining in malaria-endemic countries due to the emergence of malaria parasites resistant to these compounds. Novel alternative therapies are needed urgently to prevent the likely surge in morbidity and mortality due to failing ACTs.

OBJECTIVES

This study investigates the efficacy of the combination of two novel drugs, OZ439 and DSM265, using a biologically informed within-host mathematical model.

METHODS

A within-host model was developed, which accounts for the differential killing of these compounds against different stages of the parasite's life cycle and accommodates the pharmacodynamic interaction between the drugs. Data of healthy volunteers infected with falciparum malaria collected from four trials (three that administered OZ439 and DSM265 alone, and the fourth a combination of OZ439 and DSM265) were analysed. Model parameters were estimated in a hierarchical Bayesian framework.

RESULTS

The posterior predictive simulations of our model predicted that 800 mg of OZ439 combined with 450 mg of DSM265, which are within the safe and tolerable dose range, can provide above 90% cure rates 42 days after drug administration.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that the combination of OZ439 and DSM265 can be a promising alternative to replace ACTs. Our model can be used to inform future Phase 2 and 3 clinical trials of OZ439/DSM265, fast-tracking the deployment of this combination therapy in the regions where ACTs are failing. The dosing regimens that are shown to be efficacious and within safe and tolerable limits are suggested for future investigations.

Deconstructing the parasite multiplication rate of Plasmodium falciparum

Epidemiological indicators describing population-level malaria transmission dynamics are widely used to guide policy recommendations. However, the determinants of malaria outcomes within individuals are still poorly understood. This conceptual gap partly reflects the fact that there are few indicators that robustly predict the trajectory of individual infections or clinical outcomes. The parasite multiplication rate (PMR) is a widely used indicator for the Plasmodium intraerythrocytic development cycle (IDC), for example, but its relationship to clinical outcomes is complex. Here, we review its calculation and use in P. falciparum malaria research, as well as the parasite and host factors that impact it. We also provide examples of metrics that can help to link within-host dynamics to malaria clinical outcomes when used alongside the PMR.

Retrospective Analysis Using Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Modeling and Simulation Offers Improvements in Efficiency of the Design of Volunteer Infection Studies for Antimalarial Drug Development

Volunteer infection studies using the induced blood stage malaria (IBSM) model have been shown to facilitate antimalarial drug development. Such studies have traditionally been undertaken in single-dose cohorts, as many as necessary to obtain the dose-response relationship. To enhance ethical and logistic aspects of such studies, and to reduce the number of cohorts needed to establish the dose-response relationship, we undertook a retrospective in silico analysis of previously accrued data to improve study design. A pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) model was developed from initial fictive-cohort data for OZ439 (mixing the data of the three single-dose cohorts as: n = 2 on 100 mg, 2 on 200 mg, and 4 on 500 mg). A three-compartment model described OZ439 PKs. Net growth of parasites was modeled using a Gompertz function and drug-induced parasite death using a Hill function. Parameter estimates for the PK and PD models were comparable for the multidose single-cohort vs. the pooled analysis of all cohorts. Simulations based on the multidose single-cohort design described the complete data from the original IBSM study. The novel design allows for the ascertainment of the PK/PD relationship early in the study, providing a basis for rational dose selection for subsequent cohorts and studies.

Growth Rate of Plasmodium falciparum: Analysis of Parasite Growth Data From Malaria Volunteer Infection Studies

Background

Growth rate of malaria parasites in the blood of infected subjects is an important measure of efficacy of drugs and vaccines.

Methods

We used log-linear and sine-wave models to estimate the parasite growth rate of the 3D7 strain of Plasmodium falciparum using data from 177 subjects from 14 induced blood stage malaria (IBSM) studies conducted at QIMR Berghofer. We estimated parasite multiplication rate per 48 hour (PMR₄₈), PMR per life-cycle (PMR_LC), and parasite life-cycle duration. We compared these parameters to those from studies conducted elsewhere with infections induced by IBSM (n=66), sporozoites via mosquito bite (n=336) or injection (n=51).

Results

The parasite growth rate of 3D7 in QIMR Berghofer studies was 0.75/day (95% CI: 0.73–0.77/day), PMR₄₈ was 31.9 (95% CI: 28.7–35.4), PMR_LC was 16.4 (95% CI: 15.1–17.8) and parasite life-cycle was 38.8 hour (95% CI: 38.3–39.2 hour). These parameters were similar to estimates from IBSM studies elsewhere (0.71/day, 95% CI: 0.67–0.75/day; PMR₄₈ 26.6, 95% CI: 22.2–31.8), but significantly higher (P < 0.001) than in sporozoite studies (0.47/day, 95% CI: 0.43–0.50/day; PMR₄₈ 8.6, 95% CI: 7.3–10.1).

Conclusions

Parasite growth rates were similar across different IBSM studies and higher than infections induced by sporozoite.

Intrinsic multiplication rate variation and plasticity of human blood stage malaria parasites

Pathogen multiplication rate is theoretically an important determinant of virulence, although often poorly understood and difficult to measure accurately. We show intrinsic asexual blood stage multiplication rate variation of the major human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum to be associated with blood-stage infection intensity in patients. A panel of clinical isolates from a highly endemic West African population was analysed repeatedly during five months of continuous laboratory culture, showing a range of exponential multiplication rates at all timepoints tested, mean rates increasing over time. All isolates had different genome sequences, many containing within-isolate diversity that decreased over time in culture, but increases in multiplication rates were not primarily attributable to genomic selection. New mutants, including premature stop codons emerging in a few isolates, did not attain sufficiently high frequencies to substantially affect overall multiplication rates. Significantly, multiplication rate variation among the isolates at each of the assayed culture timepoints robustly correlated with parasite levels seen in patients at clinical presentation, indicating innate parasite control of multiplication rate that contributes to virulence.

Lindsay Stewart et al. analyze clinical isolates of the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum from a highly endemic West African population and show that intrinsic multiplication rate variation is associated with blood-stage infection intensity. Their results indicate that parasite control of multiplication contributes to virulence.

Modeling the dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes in humans during malaria infection

Renewed efforts to eliminate malaria have highlighted the potential to interrupt human-to-mosquito transmission — a process mediated by gametocyte kinetics in human hosts. Here we study the in vivo dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes by establishing a framework which incorporates improved measurements of parasitemia, a novel gametocyte dynamics model and model fitting using Bayesian hierarchical inference. We found that the model provides an excellent fit to the clinical data from 17 volunteers infected with P. falciparum (3D7 strain) and reliably predicts observed gametocytemia. We estimated the sexual commitment rate and gametocyte sequestration time to be 0.54% (95% credible interval: 0.30–1.00%) per asexual replication cycle and 8.39 (6.54–10.59) days respectively. We used the data-calibrated model to investigate human-to-mosquito transmissibility, providing a method to link within-human host infection kinetics to epidemiological-scale infection and transmission patterns.

Deciphering host immunity to malaria using systems immunology

A century of conceptual and technological advances in infectious disease research has changed the face of medicine. However, there remains a lack of effective interventions and a poor understanding of host immunity to the most significant and complex pathogens, including malaria. The development of successful interventions against such intractable diseases requires a comprehensive understanding of host-pathogen immune responses. A major advance of the past decade has been a paradigm switch in thinking from the contemporary reductionist (gene-by-gene or protein-by-protein) view to a more holistic (whole organism) view. Also, a recognition that host-pathogen immunity is composed of complex, dynamic interactions of cellular and molecular components and networks that cannot be represented by any individual component in isolation. Systems immunology integrates the field of immunology with omics technologies and computational sciences to comprehensively interrogate the immune response at a systems level. Herein, we describe the system immunology toolkit and report recent studies deploying systems-level approaches in the context of natural exposure to malaria or controlled human malaria infection. We contribute our perspective on the potential of systems immunity for the rational design and development of effective interventions to improve global public health.

Early Changes in CD4+ T-Cell Activation During Blood-Stage Plasmodium falciparum Infection

We examined transcriptional changes in CD4+ T cells during blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum infection in individuals without a history of previous parasite exposure. Transcription of CXCL8 (encoding interleukin 8) in CD4+ T cells was identified as an early biomarker of submicroscopic P. falciparum infection, with predictive power for parasite growth. Following antiparasitic drug treatment, a CD4+ T-cell regulatory phenotype developed. PD1 expression on CD49b+CD4+ T (putative type I regulatory T) cells after drug treatment negatively correlated with earlier parasite growth. Blockade of PD1 but no other immune checkpoint molecules tested increased interferon γ and interleukin 10 production in an ex vivo antigen-specific cellular assay at the peak of infection. These results demonstrate the early development of an immunoregulatory CD4+ T-cell phenotype in blood-stage P. falciparum infection and show that a selective immune checkpoint blockade may be used to modulate early developing antiparasitic immunoregulatory pathways as part of malaria vaccine and/or drug treatment protocols.

Human challenge models: tools to accelerate the development of malaria vaccines

INTRODUCTION

Malaria challenge models, where healthy human volunteers are intentionally infected with Plasmodium species parasites under controlled conditions, can be undertaken in several well-defined ways. These challenge models enable evaluation of the kinetics of parasite growth and clearance, host-pathogen interactions and the host immune response. They can facilitate discovery of candidate diagnostic biomarkers and novel vaccine targets. As translational tools they can facilitate testing of candidate vaccines and drugs and evaluation of diagnostic tests.

AREAS COVERED

Until recently, malaria human challenge models have been limited to only a few Plasmodium falciparum strains and used exclusively in malaria-naïve volunteers in non-endemic regions. Several recent advances include the use of alternate P. falciparum strains and other species of Plasmodia, as well as strains attenuated by chemical, radiation or genetic modification, and the conduct of studies in pre-exposed individuals. Herein, we discuss how this diversification is enabling more thorough vaccine efficacy testing and informing rational vaccine development.

EXPERT OPINION

The ability to comprehensively evaluate vaccine efficacy in controlled settings will continue to accelerate the translation of candidate malaria vaccines to the clinic, and inform the development and optimisation of potential vaccines that would be effective against multiple strains in geographically and demographically diverse settings.