Analysis of serological data to investigate heterogeneity of malaria transmission: a community-based cross-sectional study in an area conducting elimination in Indonesia

Influence of environmental, geographic, socio-demographic, and epidemiological factors on presence of malaria at the community level in two continents

The interactions of environmental, geographic, socio-demographic, and epidemiological factors in shaping mosquito-borne disease transmission dynamics are complex and changeable, influencing the abundance and distribution of vectors and the pathogens they transmit. In this study, 27 years of cross-sectional malaria survey data (1990-2017) were used to examine the effects of these factors on Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria presence at the community level in Africa and Asia. Monthly long-term, open-source data for each factor were compiled and analyzed using generalized linear models and classification and regression trees. Both temperature and precipitation exhibited unimodal relationships with malaria, with a positive effect up to a point after which a negative effect was observed as temperature and precipitation increased. Overall decline in malaria from 2000 to 2012 was well captured by the models, as was the resurgence after that. The models also indicated higher malaria in regions with lower economic and development indicators. Malaria is driven by a combination of environmental, geographic, socioeconomic, and epidemiological factors, and in this study, we demonstrated two approaches to capturing this complexity of drivers within models. Identifying these key drivers, and describing their associations with malaria, provides key information to inform planning and prevention strategies and interventions to reduce malaria burden.

Pre-vaccination monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio as a biomarker for the efficacy of malaria candidate vaccines: A subgroup analysis of pooled clinical trial data

BACKGROUND

Pre-vaccination monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio was previously suggested as a marker for malaria vaccine effectiveness. We investigated the potential of this cell ratio as a marker for malaria vaccine efficacy and effectiveness. Effectiveness was investigated by using clinical malaria endpoint, and efficacy was investigated by using surrogate endpoints of Plasmodium falciparum prepatent period, parasite density, and multiplication rates in a controlled human malaria infection trial (CHMI).

METHODS

We evaluated the correlation between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and RTS,S vaccine effectiveness using Cox regression modeling with clinical malaria as the primary endpoint. Of the 1704 participants in the RTS,S field trial, data on monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio was available for 842 participants, of whom our analyses were restricted. We further used Spearman Correlations and Cox regression modeling to evaluate the correlation between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and Whole Sporozoite malaria vaccine efficacy using the surrogate endpoints. Of the 97 participants in the controlled human malaria infection vaccine trials, hematology and parasitology information were available for 82 participants, of whom our analyses were restricted.

RESULTS

The unadjusted efficacy of RTS,S malaria vaccine was 54% (95% CI: 37%-66%, p <0.001). No correlation was observed between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and RTS,S vaccine efficacy (Hazard Rate (HR):0.90, 95%CI:0.45-1.80; p = 0.77). The unadjusted efficacy of Whole Sporozoite malaria vaccine in the appended dataset was 17.6% (95%CI:10%-28.5%, p<0.001). No association between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and the Whole Sporozoite malaria vaccine was found against either the prepatent period (HR = 1.16; 95%CI:0.51-2.62, p = 0.72), parasite density (rho = 0.004, p = 0.97) or multiplication rates (rho = 0.031, p = 0.80).

CONCLUSION

Monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio alone may not be an adequate marker for malaria vaccine efficacy. Further investigations on immune correlates and underlying mechanisms of immune protection against malaria could provide a clearer explanation of the differences between those protected in comparison with those not protected against malaria by vaccination.

Serological evaluation of risk factors for exposure to malaria in a pre-elimination setting in Malaysian Borneo

Malaysia has reported no indigenous cases of P. falciparum and P. vivax for over 3 years. When transmission reaches such low levels, it is important to understand the individuals and locations where exposure risks are high, as they may be at greater risk in the case of a resurgence of transmission. Serology is a useful tool in low transmission settings, providing insight into exposure over longer durations than PCR or RDT. We ran blood samples from a 2015 population-based survey in northern Sabah, Malaysian Borneo on a multiplex bead assay. Using supervised machine learning methods, we characterised recent and historic exposure to Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax and found recent exposure to P. falciparum to be very low, with exposure to both species increasing with age. We performed a risk-factor assessment on environmental, behavioural, demographic and household factors, and identified forest activity and longer travel times to healthcare as common risk-factors for exposure to P. falciparum and P. vivax. In addition, we used remote-sensing derived data and geostatistical models to assess environmental and spatial associations with exposure. We created predictive maps of exposure to recent P. falciparum in the study area and showed 3 clear foci of exposure. This study provides useful insight into the environmental, spatial and demographic risk factors for P. falciparum and P. vivax at a period of low transmission in Malaysian Borneo. The findings would be valuable in the case of resurgence of human malarias in the region.

Using Serological Markers for the Surveillance of Plasmodium vivax Malaria: A Scoping Review

The utilisation of serological surveillance methods for malaria has the potential to identify individuals exposed to Plasmodium vivax, including asymptomatic carriers. However, the application of serosurveillance varies globally, including variations in methodology and transmission context. No systematic review exists describing the advantages and disadvantages of utilising serosurveillance in various settings. Collation and comparison of these results is a necessary first step to standardise and validate the use of serology for the surveillance of P. vivax in specific transmission contexts. A scoping review was performed of P. vivax serosurveillance applications globally. Ninety-four studies were found that met predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. These studies were examined to determine the advantages and disadvantages of serosurveillance experienced in each study. If studies reported seroprevalence results, this information was also captured. Measurement of antibodies serves as a proxy by which individuals exposed to P. vivax may be indirectly identified, including those with asymptomatic infections, which may be missed by other technologies. Other thematic advantages identified included the ease and simplicity of serological assays compared to both microscopy and molecular diagnostics. Seroprevalence rates varied widely from 0-93%. Methodologies must be validated across various transmission contexts to ensure the applicability and comparability of results. Other thematic disadvantages identified included challenges with species cross-reactivity and determining changes in transmission patterns in both the short- and long-term. Serosurveillance requires further refinement to be fully realised as an actionable tool. Some work has begun in this area, but more is required.

The spatial signature of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infections: quantifying the clustering of infections in cross-sectional surveys and cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Over the last decades, enormous successes have been achieved in reducing malaria burden globally. In Latin America, South East Asia, and the Western Pacific, many countries now pursue the goal of malaria elimination by 2030. It is widely acknowledged that Plasmodium spp. infections cluster spatially so that interventions need to be spatially informed, e.g. spatially targeted reactive case detection strategies. Here, the spatial signature method is introduced as a tool to quantify the distance around an index infection within which other infections significantly cluster.

METHODS

Data were considered from cross-sectional surveys from Brazil, Thailand, Cambodia, and Solomon Islands, conducted between 2012 and 2018. Household locations were recorded by GPS and finger-prick blood samples from participants were tested for Plasmodium infection by PCR. Cohort studies from Brazil and Thailand with monthly sampling over a year from 2013 until 2014 were also included. The prevalence of PCR-confirmed infections was calculated at increasing distance around index infections (and growing time intervals in the cohort studies). Statistical significance was defined as prevalence outside of a 95%-quantile interval of a bootstrap null distribution after random re-allocation of locations of infections.

RESULTS

Prevalence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infections was elevated in close proximity around index infections and decreased with distance in most study sites, e.g. from 21.3% at 0 km to the global study prevalence of 6.4% for P. vivax in the Cambodian survey. In the cohort studies, the clustering decreased with longer time windows. The distance from index infections to a 50% reduction of prevalence ranged from 25 m to 3175 m, tending to shorter distances at lower global study prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

The spatial signatures of P. vivax and P. falciparum infections demonstrate spatial clustering across a diverse set of study sites, quantifying the distance within which the clustering occurs. The method offers a novel tool in malaria epidemiology, potentially informing reactive intervention strategies regarding radius choices of operations around detected infections and thus strengthening malaria elimination endeavours.

Naturally acquired antibody response to Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax among indigenous Orang Asli communities in Peninsular Malaysia

Malaria remains a public health problem in many parts of the world. In Malaysia, the significant progress towards the national elimination programme and effective disease notification on malaria has resulted in zero indigenous human malaria cases since 2018. However, the country still needs to determine the extent of malaria exposure and transmission patterns, particularly in high-risk populations. In this study, a serological method was used to measure transmission levels of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax among indigenous Orang Asli communities in Kelantan, Peninsular Malaysia. A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in three Orang Asli communities (i.e., Pos Bihai, Pos Gob, and Pos Kuala Betis) in Kelantan from June to July 2019. Antibody responses to malaria were assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) using two P. falciparum (PfAMA-1 and PfMSP-1₁₉) and two P. vivax (PvAMA-1 and PvMSP-1₁₉) antigens. Age-adjusted antibody responses were analysed using a reversible catalytic model to calculate seroconversion rates (SCRs). Multiple logistic regression was used to investigate factors associated with malaria exposure. The overall malaria seroprevalence was 38.8% for PfAMA-1, 36.4% for PfMSP-1₁₉, 2.2% for PvAMA-1, and 9.3% for PvMSP-1₁₉. Between study areas, the proportion of seropositivity for any P. falciparum and P. vivax antigens was significantly highest in Pos Kuala Betis with 34.7% (p < 0.001) and 13.6% (p < 0.001), respectively. For all parasite antigens except for PvAMA-1, the proportion of seropositive individuals significantly increased with age (all p < 0.001). Based on the SCR, there was a higher level of P. falciparum transmission than P. vivax in the study area. Multivariate regression analyses showed that living in Pos Kuala Betis was associated with both P. falciparum (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.6, p < 0.001) and P. vivax (aOR 2.1, p < 0.001) seropositivities. Significant associations were also found between age and seropositivity to P. falciparum and P. vivax antigens. Analysis of community-based serological data helps describe the level of transmission, heterogeneity, and factors associated with malaria exposure among indigenous communities in Peninsular Malaysia. This approach could be an important adjunct tool for malaria monitoring and surveillance in low malaria transmission settings in the country.

Seroepidemiological surveillance, community perceptions and associated risk factors of malaria exposure among forest-goers in Northeastern Thailand

Malaria remains a major public health challenge in Thailand. Continuous assessment and understanding of the behavior and perceptions related to malaria exposure in the high-risk group are necessary to achieve the elimination goal. This study aimed to investigate the parasite prevalence, seroprevalence rate, knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP), and malaria risk factors in rural communities living close to a forested area in the northeastern part of Thailand. A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in three forest-goer communities (i.e., Ban Khok, Ban Koh, and Dong Yang) located in Khamcha-i district, Mukdahan Province, Thailand, from July to August 2019. Demographic, socioeconomic information and KAP data were collected using a structured questionnaire. Parasite prevalence was determined by microscopy. Seroprevalence was determined via ELISA using two Plasmodium falciparum (PfAMA-1 and PfMSP-1₁₉) and two Plasmodium vivax (PvAMA-1 and PvMSP-1₁₉) antigens. Age-adjusted antibody responses were analyzed using a reversible catalytic model to calculate seroconversion rate (SCR). Malaria parasite was not detected in any of the 345 participants. The overall malaria seroprevalence was 72.2% for PfAMA-1, 18.8% for PfMSP-1₁₉, 32.5% for PvAMA-1, and 4.4% for PvMSP-1₁₉. The proportion of seroprevalence for P. falciparum and P. vivax antigens was significantly highest in Ban Koh (35.1%, P < 0.001) and Don Yang (18.8%, P < 0.001), respectively. For all parasite antigens except PvMSP-1₁₉, the proportion of seropositive individuals significantly increased with age (P < 0.001). Based on the SCRs, there was a higher level of P. falciparum transmission than P. vivax. Regarding KAP, almost all respondents showed adequate knowledge and awareness about malaria. Nevertheless, significant effort is needed to improve positive attitudes and practices concerning malaria prevention measures. Multivariate regression analyses showed that living in Ban Koh was associated with both P. falciparum (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 12.87, P < 0.001) and P. vivax (aOR 9.78, P < 0.001) seropositivities. We also found significant associations between age and seropositivity against P. falciparum and P. vivax antigens. The data suggest that seroepidemiological surveillance using AMA-1 and MSP-1₁₉ antigens may provide further evidence to reconstruct malaria exposure history. The absence of weak evidence of recent malaria transmission in Mukdahan Province is promising in the context of the disease elimination program.

Characterizing the spatial distribution of multiple malaria diagnostic endpoints in a low-transmission setting in Lao PDR

The epidemiology of malaria changes as prevalence falls in low-transmission settings, with remaining infections becoming more difficult to detect and diagnose. At this stage active surveillance is critical to detect residual hotspots of transmission. However, diagnostic tools used in active surveillance generally only detect concurrent infections, and surveys may benefit from sensitive tools such as serological assays. Serology can be used to interrogate and characterize individuals' previous exposure to malaria over longer durations, providing information essential to the detection of remaining foci of infection. We ran blood samples collected from a 2016 population-based survey in the low-transmission setting of northern Lao PDR on a multiplexed bead assay to characterize historic and recent exposures to Plasmodium falciparum and vivax. Using geostatistical methods and remote-sensing data we assessed the environmental and spatial associations with exposure, and created predictive maps of exposure within the study sites. We additionally linked the active surveillance PCR and serology data with passively collected surveillance data from health facility records. We aimed to highlight the added information which can be gained from serology as a tool in active surveillance surveys in low-transmission settings, and to identify priority areas for national surveillance programmes where malaria risk is higher. We also discuss the issues faced when linking malaria data from multiple sources using multiple diagnostic endpoints.

Antibodies Against the Plasmodium vivax Apical Membrane Antigen 1 From the Belem Strain Share Common Epitopes Among Other Worldwide Variants

Malaria is a human parasitic disease distributed in many tropical countries and caused by various Plasmodium species. Plasmodium vivax has the largest geographical distribution of the Plasmodium species and is predominant in the Americas, including Brazil. Only a small number of P. vivax vaccine formulations have successfully reached clinical trials relative to their P. falciparum counterparts. One of the candidate antigens for a blood-stage P. vivax vaccine is apical membrane antigen 1 (PvAMA-1). Due to the worldwide distribution of Plasmodium parasites, a high degree of variability has been detected in this antigen sequence, representing a considerable challenge to the development of a universal vaccine against malaria. In this study, we evaluated how PvAMA-1 polymorphisms influence vaccine-derived immune responses in P. vivax malaria. To this end, we expressed 9 recombinant protein representatives of different PvAMA-1 allelic variants in the yeast Pichia pastoris: Belem, Chesson I, Sal-1, Indonesia XIX, SK0814, TC103, PNG_05_ESP, PNG_62_MU, and PNG_68_MAS. After protein expression and purification, we evaluated the breadth of the immune responses derived from malaria-exposed individuals from the Amazon region. From 611 serum samples of malaria-exposed individuals, 53.68% of them reacted against the PvAMA-1 Belem through ELISA. Positive samples were further tested against recombinant proteins representing the other PvAMA-1 allelic variants. Whereas Sal-1, Chesson I and SK0814 variants were highly recognized by tested serum samples, Indonesia XIX, TC103, PNG_05_ESP, PNG_62_MU, and PNG_68_MAS were only slightly recognized. Moreover, polyclonal sera derived from C57BL/6 mice immunized with the PvAMA-1 Belem protein predominantly recognized Belem, Sal-1, Chesson I, SK0814, and Indonesia XIX through ELISA. Last, ELISA-based competition assays demonstrated that a previous interaction between anti-Belem polyclonal serum and Sal-1, Chesson I, SK0814, or Indonesia XIX proteins could further inhibit antibody binding to the Belem variant. Our human and mouse data suggest the presence of common epitopes or cross-reactivity between Belem, Sal-1, Chesson I, and SK0814 variants. Although the PvAMA-1 Belem variant induces strain-transcendent antibodies, PvAMA-1 variants from Thailand and Papua New Guinea may need to be included in a universal vaccine formulation to achieve protection against P. vivax malaria.

Seroprevalence and Parasite Rates of Plasmodium malariae in a High Malaria Transmission Setting of Southern Nigeria

Although Plasmodium falciparum continues to be the main target for malaria elimination, other Plasmodium species persist in Africa. Their clinical diagnosis is uncommon, whereas rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), the most widely used malaria diagnostic tools, are only able to distinguish between P. falciparum and non-falciparum species, the latter as “pan-species.” Blood samples from health facilities were collected in southern Nigeria (Lagos and Calabar) in 2017 (October–December) and Calabar only in 2018 (October–November), and analyzed by several methods, namely, microscopy, quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR), and peptide serology targeting candidate antigens (Plasmodium malariae apical membrane antigen, P. malariae lactose dehydrogenase, and P. malariae circumsporozoite surface protein). Both microscopy and qPCR diagnostic approaches detected comparable proportions (∼80%) of all RDT-positive samples infected with the dominant P. falciparum malaria parasite. However, higher proportions of non-falciparum species were detected by qPCR than microscopy, 10% against 3% infections for P. malariae and 3% against 0% for Plasmodium ovale, respectively. No Plasmodium vivax infection was detected. Infection rates for P. malariae varied between age-groups, with the highest rates in individuals aged > 5 years. Plasmodium malariae–specific seroprevalence rates fluctuated in those aged < 10 years but generally reached the peak around 20 years of age for all peptides. The heterogeneity and rates of these non-falciparum species call for increased specific diagnosis and targeting by elimination strategies.

Using health facility-based serological surveillance to predict receptive areas at risk of malaria outbreaks in elimination areas

BACKGROUND

In order to improve malaria burden estimates in low transmission settings, more sensitive tools and efficient sampling strategies are required. This study evaluated the use of serological measures from repeated health facility-based cross-sectional surveys to investigate Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission dynamics in an area nearing elimination in Indonesia.

METHODS

Quarterly surveys were conducted in eight public health facilities in Kulon Progo District, Indonesia, from May 2017 to April 2018. Demographic data were collected from all clinic patients and their companions, with household coordinates collected using participatory mapping methods. In addition to standard microscopy tests, bead-based serological assays were performed on finger-prick bloodspot samples from 9453 people. Seroconversion rates (SCR, i.e. the proportion of people in the population who are expected to seroconvert per year) were estimated by fitting a simple reversible catalytic model to seroprevalence data. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with malaria exposure, and spatial analysis was performed to identify areas with clustering of high antibody responses.

RESULTS

Parasite prevalence by microscopy was extremely low (0.06% (95% confidence interval 0.03-0.14, n = 6) and 0 for P. vivax and P. falciparum, respectively). However, spatial analysis of P. vivax antibody responses identified high-risk areas that were subsequently the site of a P. vivax outbreak in August 2017 (62 cases detected through passive and reactive detection systems). These areas overlapped with P. falciparum high-risk areas and were detected in each survey. General low transmission was confirmed by the SCR estimated from a pool of the four surveys in people aged 15 years old and under (0.020 (95% confidence interval 0.017-0.024) and 0.005 (95% confidence interval 0.003-0.008) for P. vivax and P. falciparum, respectively). The SCR estimates in those over 15 years old were 0.066 (95% confidence interval 0.041-0.105) and 0.032 (95% confidence interval 0.015-0.069) for P. vivax and P. falciparum, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings demonstrate the potential use of health facility-based serological surveillance to better identify and target areas still receptive to malaria in an elimination setting. Further implementation research is needed to enable integration of these methods with existing surveillance systems.