Repeated mosquito net distributions, improved treatment, and trends in malaria cases in sentinel health facilities in Papua New Guinea

Criteria for selecting sentinel unit locations in a surveillance system for vector-borne disease: A decision tool

Objectives

With vector-borne diseases emerging across the globe, precipitated by climate change and other anthropogenic changes, it is critical for public health authorities to have well-designed surveillance strategies in place. Sentinel surveillance has been proposed as a cost-effective approach to surveillance in this context. However, spatial design of sentinel surveillance system has important impacts on surveillance outcomes, and careful selection of sentinel unit locations is therefore an essential component of planning.

Methods

A review of the available literature, based on the realist approach, was used to identify key decision issues for sentinel surveillance planning. Outcomes of the review were used to develop a decision tool, which was subsequently validated by experts in the field.

Results

The resulting decision tool provides a list of criteria which can be used to select sentinel unit locations. We illustrate its application using the case example of designing a national sentinel surveillance system for Lyme disease in Canada.

Conclusions

The decision tool provides researchers and public health authorities with a systematic, evidence-based approach for planning the spatial design of sentinel surveillance systems, taking into account the aims of the surveillance system and disease and/or context-specific considerations.

A review of malaria epidemiology and control in Papua New Guinea 1900 to 2021: Progress made and future directions

The research and control of malaria has a long history in Papua New Guinea, sometimes resulting in substantial changes to the distribution of infection and transmission dynamics in the country. There have been four major periods of malaria control in PNG, with the current control programme having commenced in 2004. Each previous control programme was successful in reducing malaria burden in the country, but multiple factors led to programme failures and eventual breakdown. A comprehensive review of the literature dating from 1900 to 2021 was undertaken to summarize control strategies, epidemiology, vector ecology and environmental drivers of malaria transmission in PNG. Evaluations of historical control programs reveal poor planning and communication, and difficulty in sustaining financial investment once malaria burden had decreased as common themes in the breakdown of previous programs. Success of current and future malaria control programs in PNG is contingent on adequate planning and management of control programs, effective communication and engagement with at-risk populations, and cohesive targeted approaches to sub-national and national control and elimination.

The relative impact of interventions on sympatric Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria: A systematic review

Background

In areas with both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria, interventions can reduce the burden of both species but the impact may vary due to their different biology. Knowing the expected relative impact on the two species over time for vector- and drug-based interventions, and the factors affecting this, could help plan and evaluate intervention strategies.

Methods

For three interventions (treated bed nets (ITN), mass drug administration (MDA) and indoor residual spraying (IRS)), we identified studies providing information on the proportion of clinical illness and patent infections attributed to P. vivax over time using a literature search. The change in the proportion of malaria attributed to P. vivax up to two years since implementation was estimated using logistic regression accounting for clustering with random effects. Potential factors (intervention type, coverage, relapse pattern, transmission intensity, seasonality, initial proportion of P. vivax and round of intervention) were assessed.

Results

In total there were 55 studies found that led to 72 series of time-points for clinical case data and 69 series for patent infection data. The main reason of study exclusion was insufficient information on interventions. There was considerable variation in the proportion of malaria attributed to P. vivax over time by study and location for all of the interventions. Overall, there was an increase apart from MDA in the short-term. The potential factors could not be ruled in or out. Although not consistently significant, coverage, transmission intensity and relapse pattern are possible factors that explain some of the variation found.

Conclusion

While there are reports of an increase in the proportion of malaria due to P. vivax following interventions in the long-term, there was substantial variation for the shorter time-scales considered in this study (up to 24 months for IRS and ITN, and up to six months for MDA). The large variability points to the need for the monitoring of both species after an intervention. Studies should report intervention timing and characteristics to allow inclusion in systematic reviews.

Impact of insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying on self-reported malaria prevalence among women of reproductive age in Ghana: implication for malaria control and elimination

Background

The Global Fund alone contributed 56% of all international financing for malaria and has invested more than US$13.5 billion in malaria treatment, prevention, and control programmes by June 2021. These investments include interventions such as mosquito nets, indoor residual spraying, and preventive treatment for children and pregnant women. However, there is paucity of studies for assessment of such investments to a reduction in malaria prevalence. This study was aimed at quantifying the impact of household access to insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and the indoor residual spraying (IRS) on self-reported malaria prevalence among women of reproductive age in Ghana.

Methods

The study analysed the 2016 Ghana Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS) data. The MIS is a nationwide survey that included women aged 15–49 years. Poisson regression model with inverse probability to treatment weighting was used to determine average treatment effect estimate of the two malaria interventions on self-reported malaria prevalence among women of reproductive age in Ghana.

Results

A total sample of 4861 women interviewed from the 2016 Ghana MIS was used for analysis. The prevalence of self-reported malaria in 2016 was 34.4% (95% CI [32.4%, 36.4%]). Approximately 80.0% of women lived in households with access to ITNs [Percentage (Pr) = 79.9%, (95% CI [78.0%, 81.7%])], 12.4% (95% CI [7.5%, 19.8%]) of the households had access to IRS and 11.4% (95% CI [7.0%, 18.0%]) of the households had access to both ITNs and IRS. Household access to only ITN contributed to 7.1 percentage point (pt) reduction in the self-reported malaria among women (95% CI [− 12.0%, − 2.1%], p = 0.005) whilst IRS at the households contributed to 6.8pt reduction in malaria prevalence (95% CI [− 12.0%, − 2.1%], p = 0.005). Households with access to both ITNs and IRS contributed to a 27.1pt reduction in self-reported malaria prevalence among women (95% CI [− 12.0%, − 2.1%], p = 0.005).

Conclusion

Access to both ITNs and application of IRS at the household level contributed to a significant reduction in self-reported malaria prevalence among women of reproductive age in Ghana. This finding confirms the need for integration of malaria control interventions to facilitate attainment of malaria elimination in Ghana.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04136-3.

Stratification of malaria incidence in Papua New Guinea (2011-2019): Contribution towards a sub-national control policy

Malaria risk in Papua New Guinea (PNG) is highly heterogeneous, between and within geographical regions, which is operationally challenging for control. To enhance targeting of malaria interventions in PNG, we investigated risk factors and stratified malaria incidence at the level of health facility catchment areas. Catchment areas and populations of 808 health facilities were delineated using a travel-time accessibility approach and linked to reported malaria cases (2011-2019). Zonal statistics tools were used to calculate average altitude and air temperature in catchment areas before they were spatially joined with incidence rates. In addition, empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK) was employed to interpolate incidence risk strata across PNG. Malaria annual incidence rates are, on average, 186.3 per 1000 population in catchment areas up to 600 m, dropped to 98.8 at (800-1400) m, and to 24.1 cases above 1400 m altitude. In areas above the two altitudinal thresholds 600m and 1400m, the average annual temperature drops below 22°C and 17°C, respectively. EBK models show very low- to low-risk strata (<100 cases per 1000) in the Highlands, National Capital District and Bougainville. In contrast, patches of high-risk (>200 per 1000) strata are modelled mainly in Momase and Islands Regions. Besides, strata with moderate risk (100-200) predominate throughout the coastal areas. While 35.7% of the PNG population (estimated 3.33 million in 2019) lives in places at high or moderate risk of malaria, 52.2% (estimated 4.88 million) resides in very low-risk areas. In five provinces, relatively large proportions of populations (> 50%) inhabit high-risk areas: New Ireland, East and West New Britain, Sandaun and Milne Bay. Incidence maps show a contrast in malaria risk between coastal and inland areas influenced by altitude. However, the risk is highly variable in low-lying areas. Malaria interventions should be guided by sub-national risk levels in PNG.

Investigating differences in village-level heterogeneity of malaria infection and household risk factors in Papua New Guinea

Malaria risk is highly heterogeneous. Understanding village and household-level spatial heterogeneity of malaria risk can support a transition to spatially targeted interventions for malaria elimination. This analysis uses data from cross-sectional prevalence surveys conducted in 2014 and 2016 in two villages (Megiar and Mirap) in Papua New Guinea. Generalised additive modelling was used to characterise spatial heterogeneity of malaria risk and investigate the contribution of individual, household and environmental-level risk factors. Following a period of declining malaria prevalence, the prevalence of P. falciparum increased from 11.4 to 19.1% in Megiar and 12.3 to 28.3% in Mirap between 2014 and 2016, with focal hotspots observed in these villages in 2014 and expanding in 2016. Prevalence of P. vivax was similar in both years (20.6% and 18.3% in Megiar, 22.1% and 23.4% in Mirap) and spatial risk heterogeneity was less apparent compared to P. falciparum. Within-village hotspots varied by Plasmodium species across time and between villages. In Megiar, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of infection could be partially explained by household factors that increase risk of vector exposure, such as collecting outdoor surface water as a main source of water. In Mirap, increased AOR overlapped with proximity to densely vegetated areas of the village. The identification of household and environmental factors associated with increased spatial risk may serve as useful indicators of transmission hotspots and inform the development of tailored approaches for malaria control.

Coverage, determinants of use and repurposing of long-lasting insecticidal nets two years after a mass distribution in Lihir Islands, Papua New Guinea: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Universal coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) is an essential component of malaria control programmes. Three-yearly mass distribution of LLINs in Papua New Guinea (PNG) has been successful in reducing infection transmission since 2009, but malaria prevalence ramped up from 2015 onwards. Although LLIN universal coverage is mostly achieved during these campaigns, it may not be related with net use over time. Uses given to LLINs and non-compliance of this strategy were evaluated.

METHODS

A knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) cross-sectional study was conducted in Lihir Islands, PNG, 2-2.5 years after the last LLIN mass distribution campaign. Data on bed net ownership, use and maintenance behaviour was collected using a household questionnaire administered by trained community volunteers. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with owning at least one LLIN and sleeping under a LLIN the previous night.

RESULTS

Among 2694 households surveyed, 27.4 % (95 % CI: 25.8-29.2) owned at least one LLIN and 8.7 % (95 % CI: 7.6-9.8) had an adequate LLIN coverage (at least one LLIN for every two people). Out of 13,595 individuals in the surveyed households, 13.6 % (95 % CI: 13.0--4.2) reported having slept under a LLIN the preceding night. Determinants for sleeping under LLIN included living in a household with adequate LLIN coverage [adjusted OR (aOR) = 5.82 (95 % CI: 3.23-10.49)], household heads knowledge about LLINs [aOR = 16.44 (95 % CI: 8.29-32.58)], and female gender [aOR = 1.92 (95 % CI: 1.53-2.40)] (all p-values < 0.001). LLIN use decreased with older age [aOR = 0.29 (95 % CI: 0.21-0.40) for ≥ 15 year-olds, aOR = 0.38 (95 % CI: 0.27-0.55) for 5-14 year-olds] compared to < 5 year-olds (p-value < 0.001). Knowledge on the use of LLIN was good in 37.0 % of the household heads. Repurposed nets were reported serving as fishing nets (30.4 %), fruits and seedlings protection (26.6 %), covering up food (19.0 %) and bed linen (11.5 %).

CONCLUSIONS

Two years after mass distribution, LLIN coverage and use in Lihir Islands is extremely low. Three yearly distribution campaigns may not suffice to maintain an acceptable LLIN coverage unless knowledge on maintenance and use is promoted trough educational campaigns.

Spatial prediction of malaria prevalence in Papua New Guinea: a comparison of Bayesian decision network and multivariate regression modelling approaches for improved accuracy in prevalence prediction

Background

Considerable progress towards controlling malaria has been made in Papua New Guinea through the national malaria control programme’s free distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets, improved diagnosis with rapid diagnostic tests and improved access to artemisinin combination therapy. Predictive prevalence maps can help to inform targeted interventions and monitor changes in malaria epidemiology over time as control efforts continue. This study aims to compare the predictive performance of prevalence maps generated using Bayesian decision network (BDN) models and multilevel logistic regression models (a type of generalized linear model, GLM) in terms of malaria spatial risk prediction accuracy.

Methods

Multilevel logistic regression models and BDN models were developed using 2010/2011 malaria prevalence survey data collected from 77 randomly selected villages to determine associations of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax prevalence with precipitation, temperature, elevation, slope (terrain aspect), enhanced vegetation index and distance to the coast. Predictive performance of multilevel logistic regression and BDN models were compared by cross-validation methods.

Results

Prevalence of P. falciparum, based on results obtained from GLMs was significantly associated with precipitation during the 3 driest months of the year, June to August (β = 0.015; 95% CI = 0.01–0.03), whereas P. vivax infection was associated with elevation (β = − 0.26; 95% CI = − 0.38 to − 3.04), precipitation during the 3 driest months of the year (β = 0.01; 95% CI = − 0.01–0.02) and slope (β = 0.12; 95% CI = 0.05–0.19). Compared with GLM model performance, BDNs showed improved accuracy in prediction of the prevalence of P. falciparum (AUC = 0.49 versus 0.75, respectively) and P. vivax (AUC = 0.56 versus 0.74, respectively) on cross-validation.

Conclusions

BDNs provide a more flexible modelling framework than GLMs and may have a better predictive performance when developing malaria prevalence maps due to the multiple interacting factors that drive malaria prevalence in different geographical areas. When developing malaria prevalence maps, BDNs may be particularly useful in predicting prevalence where spatial variation in climate and environmental drivers of malaria transmission exists, as is the case in Papua New Guinea.

Residual Malaria Transmission in Select Countries of Asia-Pacific Region: Old Wine in a New Barrel

Background

Despite substantial reductions in malaria burden and improvement in case management, malaria remains a major public health challenge in the Asia-Pacific region. Residual malaria transmission (RMT) is the fraction of total transmission that persists after achievement of full operational coverage with effective insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs)/long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and/or indoor residual spray interventions. There is a critical need to standardize and share best practices for entomological, anthropological, and product development investigative protocols to meet the challenges of RMT and elimination goals.

Methods

A systematic review was conducted to describe when and where RMT is occurring, while specifically targeting ownership and usage of ITN/LLINs, indoor residual spray application, insecticide susceptibility of vectors, and human and vector biting behavior, with a focus on nighttime activities.

Results

Sixty-six publications from 1995 to present met the inclusion criteria for closer review. Associations between local vector control coverage and use with behaviors of human and mosquito vectors varied by locality and circumstance. Consequently, the magnitude of RMT is insufficiently studied and analyzed with sparse estimates of individual exposure in communities, insufficient or incomplete observations of ITN/LLIN use, and the local human population movement into and from high-risk areas.

Conclusions

This review identified significant gaps or deficiencies that require urgent attention, namely, developing standardized procedures and methods to estimate risk exposure beyond the peridomestic setting, analytical approaches to measure key human-vector interactions, and seasonal location-specific agricultural or forest use calendars, and establishing the collection of longitudinal human and vector data close in time and location.

Human Behavior, Livelihood, and Malaria Transmission in Two Sites of Papua New Guinea

Background

Malaria transmission is currently resurging in Papua New Guinea (PNG). In addition to intervention coverage, social and cultural factors influence changes in epidemiology of malaria in PNG. This study aimed to better understand the role of human behavior in relation to current malaria control efforts.

Methods

A mixed-method design was used in 2 sites in PNG. In-depth interviews, focus group discussions, cross-sectional malaria indicator survey, and population census were implemented.

Results

We identified 7 population groups based on demographics and behavioral patterns with potential relevance to Anopheles exposure. People spend a substantial amount of time outdoors or in semiopen structures. Between 4 pm and 8 am, all types of activities across all groups in both study sites may be exposing individuals to mosquito bites; sleeping under a long-lasting insecticidal net was the exception. The later in the night, the more outdoor presence was concentrated in adult men.

Conclusions

Our findings highlight the potential of outdoor exposure to hamper malaria control as people spend a remarkable amount of time outdoors without protection from mosquitoes. To prevent ongoing transmission, targeting of groups, places, and activities with complementary interventions should consider setting-specific human behaviors in addition to epidemiological and entomological data.

Emergence of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum with kelch13 C580Y mutations on the island of New Guinea

The rapid and aggressive spread of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum carrying the C580Y mutation in the kelch13 gene is a growing threat to malaria elimination in Southeast Asia, but there is no evidence of their spread to other regions. We conducted cross-sectional surveys in 2016 and 2017 at two clinics in Wewak, Papua New Guinea (PNG) where we identified three infections caused by C580Y mutants among 239 genotyped clinical samples. One of these mutants exhibited the highest survival rate (6.8%) among all parasites surveyed in ring-stage survival assays (RSA) for artemisinin. Analyses of kelch13 flanking regions, and comparisons of deep sequencing data from 389 clinical samples from PNG, Indonesian Papua and Western Cambodia, suggested an independent origin of the Wewak C580Y mutation, showing that the mutants possess several distinctive genetic features. Identity by descent (IBD) showed that multiple portions of the mutants' genomes share a common origin with parasites found in Indonesian Papua, comprising several mutations within genes previously associated with drug resistance, such as mdr1, ferredoxin, atg18 and pnp. These findings suggest that a P. falciparum lineage circulating on the island of New Guinea has gradually acquired a complex ensemble of variants, including kelch13 C580Y, which have affected the parasites' drug sensitivity. This worrying development reinforces the need for increased surveillance of the evolving parasite populations on the island, to contain the spread of resistance.

The epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in East Sepik Province, Papua New Guinea, pre- and post-implementation of national malaria control efforts

Background

In the past decade, national malaria control efforts in Papua New Guinea (PNG) have received renewed support, facilitating nationwide distribution of free long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), as well as improvements in access to parasite-confirmed diagnosis and effective artemisinin-combination therapy in 2011–2012.

Methods

To study the effects of these intensified control efforts on the epidemiology and transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections and investigate risk factors at the individual and household level, two cross-sectional surveys were conducted in the East Sepik Province of PNG; one in 2005, before the scale-up of national campaigns and one in late 2012-early 2013, after 2 rounds of LLIN distribution (2008 and 2011–2012). Differences between studies were investigated using Chi square (χ²), Fischer’s exact tests and Student’s t-test. Multivariable logistic regression models were built to investigate factors associated with infection at the individual and household level.

Results

The prevalence of P. falciparum and P. vivax in surveyed communities decreased from 55% (2005) to 9% (2013) and 36% to 6%, respectively. The mean multiplicity of infection (MOI) decreased from 1.8 to 1.6 for P. falciparum (p = 0.08) and from 2.2 to 1.4 for P. vivax (p < 0.001). Alongside these reductions, a shift towards a more uniform distribution of infections and illness across age groups was observed but there was greater heterogeneity across the study area and within the study villages. Microscopy positive infections and clinical cases in the household were associated with high rate infection households (> 50% of household members with Plasmodium infection).

Conclusion

After the scale-up of malaria control interventions in PNG between 2008 and 2012, there was a substantial reduction in P. falciparum and P. vivax infection rates in the studies villages in East Sepik Province. Understanding the extent of local heterogeneity in malaria transmission and the driving factors is critical to identify and implement targeted control strategies to ensure the ongoing success of malaria control in PNG and inform the development of tools required to achieve elimination. In household-based interventions, diagnostics with a sensitivity similar to (expert) microscopy could be used to identify and target high rate households.