What is the yield of malaria reactive case detection in the Greater Mekong Sub-region? A review of published data and meta-analysis

The contribution of active case detection to malaria elimination in Thailand

INTRODUCTION

Thailand's malaria surveillance system complements passive case detection with active case detection (ACD), comprising proactive ACD (PACD) methods and reactive ACD (RACD) methods that target community members near index cases. However, it is unclear if these resource-intensive surveillance strategies continue to provide useful yield. This study aimed to document the evolution of the ACD programme and to assess the potential to optimise PACD and RACD.

METHODS

This study used routine data from all 6 292 302 patients tested for malaria from fiscal year 2015 (FY15) to FY21. To assess trends over time and geography, ACD yield was defined as the proportion of cases detected among total screenings. To investigate geographical variation in yield from FY17 to FY21, we used intercept-only generalised linear regression models (binomial distribution), allowing random intercepts at different geographical levels. A costing analysis gathered the incremental financial costs for one instance of ACD per focus.

RESULTS

Test positivity for ACD was low (0.08%) and declined over time (from 0.14% to 0.03%), compared with 3.81% for passive case detection (5.62%-1.93%). Whereas PACD and RACD contributed nearly equal proportions of confirmed cases in FY15, by FY21 PACD represented just 32.37% of ACD cases, with 0.01% test positivity. Each geography showed different yields. We provide a calculator for PACD costs, which vary widely. RACD costs an expected US$226 per case investigation survey (US$1.62 per person tested) or US$461 per mass blood survey (US$1.10 per person tested).

CONCLUSION

ACD yield, particularly for PACD, is waning alongside incidence, offering an opportunity to optimise. PACD may remain useful only in specific microcontexts with sharper targeting and implementation. RACD could be narrowed by defining demographic-based screening criteria rather than geographical based. Ultimately, ACD can continue to contribute to Thailand's malaria elimination programme but with more deliberate targeting to balance operational costs.

1-3-7 surveillance and response approach in malaria elimination: China's practice and global adaptions

There has been a significant reduction in malaria morbidity and mortality worldwide from 2000 to 2019. However, the incidence and mortality increased again in 2020 due to the disruption to services during the COVID-19 pandemic. Surveillance to reduce the burden of malaria, eliminate the disease and prevent its retransmission is, therefore, crucial. The 1-3-7 approach proposed by China has played an important role in eliminating malaria, which has been internationally popularized and adopted in some countries to help eliminate malaria. This review summarizes the experience and lessons of 1-3-7 approach in China and its application in other malaria-endemic countries, so as to provide references for its role in eliminating malaria and preventing retransmission. This approach needs to be tailored and adapted according to the region condition, considering the completion, timeliness and limitation of case-based reactive surveillance and response. It is very important to popularize malaria knowledge, train staff, improve the capacity of health centres and monitor high-risk groups to improve the performance in eliminating settings. After all, remaining vigilance in detecting malaria cases and optimizing surveillance and response systems are critical to achieving and sustaining malaria elimination.

Reactive Case Detection Strategy for Malaria Control and Elimination: A 12 Year Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis from 25 Malaria-Endemic Countries

Reactive case detection (RACD) is the screening of household members and neighbors of index cases reported in passive surveillance. This strategy seeks asymptomatic infections and provides treatment to break transmission without testing or treating the entire population. This review discusses and highlights RACD as a recommended strategy for the detection and elimination of asymptomatic malaria as it pertains in different countries. Relevant studies published between January 2010 and September 2022 were identified mainly through PubMed and Google Scholar. Search terms included "malaria and reactive case detection", "contact tracing", "focal screening", "case investigation", "focal screen and treat". MedCalc Software was used for data analysis, and the findings from the pooled studies were analyzed using a fixed-effect model. Summary outcomes were then presented using forest plots and tables. Fifty-four (54) studies were systematically reviewed. Of these studies, 7 met the eligibility criteria based on risk of malaria infection in individuals living with an index case < 5 years old, 13 met the eligibility criteria based on risk of malaria infection in an index case household member compared with a neighbor of an index case, and 29 met the eligibility criteria based on risk of malaria infection in individuals living with index cases, and were included in the meta-analysis. Individuals living in index case households with an average risk of 2.576 (2.540-2.612) were more at risk of malaria infection and showed pooled results of high variation heterogeneity chi-square = 235.600, (p < 0.0001) I² = 98.88 [97.87-99.89]. The pooled results showed that neighbors of index cases were 0.352 [0.301-0.412] times more likely to have a malaria infection relative to index case household members, and this result was statistically significant (p < 0.001). The identification and treatment of infectious reservoirs is critical to successful malaria elimination. Evidence to support the clustering of infections in neighborhoods, which necessitates the inclusion of neighboring households as part of the RACD strategy, was presented in this review.

Metagenomic Sequencing for the Diagnosis of Plasmodium spp. with Different Levels of Parasitemia in EDTA Blood of Malaria Patients—A Proof-of-Principle Assessment

Molecular diagnostic approaches are increasingly included in the diagnostic workup and even in the primary diagnosis of malaria in non-endemic settings, where it is difficult to maintain skillful microscopic malaria detection due to the rarity of the disease. Pathogen-specific nucleic acid amplification, however, bears the risk of overlooking other pathogens associated with febrile illness in returnees from the tropics. Here, we assessed the discriminatory potential of metagenomic sequencing for the identification of different Plasmodium species with various parasitemia in EDTA blood of malaria patients. Overall, the proportion of Plasmodium spp.-specific sequence reads in the assessed samples showed a robust positive correlation with parasitemia (Spearman r = 0.7307, p = 0.0001) and a robust negative correlation with cycle threshold (Ct) values of genus-specific real-time PCR (Spearman r = −0.8626, p ≤ 0.0001). Depending on the applied bioinformatic algorithm, discrimination on species level was successful in 50% (11/22) to 63.6% (14/22) instances. Limiting factors for the discrimination on species level were very low parasitemia, species-depending lacking availability of reliable reference genomes, and mixed infections with high variance of the proportion of the infecting species. In summary, metagenomic sequencing as performed in this study is suitable for the detection of malaria in human blood samples, but the diagnostic detection limit for a reliable discrimination on species level remains higher than for competing diagnostic approaches like microscopy and PCR.

Limited Reliability of the Molecular Detection of Plasmodium spp. from Incubated Blood Culture Samples for Forensic Purposes

The suitability of incubated blood culture material for forensic molecular malaria diagnosis was assessed for non-endemic settings for cases in which the differential diagnosis malaria was initially overlooked. For the proof-of-principle assessment, residual blood culture materials from febrile patients from tropical Ghana were investigated by real-time PCR and compared with available historic microscopic results. In 2114 samples, for which microscopical results and real-time PCR results were available, microscopical results comprised 711 P. falciparum detections, 7 P. malariae detections, 1 microscopically not-further-discriminable Plasmodium spp. detection as well as 13 detections of mixed infections comprising 12 cases of P. falciparum/P. malariae co-infections and 1 case of a P. falciparum/P. ovale complex co-infection, while real-PCR indicated 558 P. falciparum detections, 95 P. malariae detections, 10 P. ovale complex detections, 1 P. vivax detection and 4 detected P. falciparum/P. malariae co-infections. Concordance of routine microscopy and real-time PCR was imperfect. Using routine microscopy as reference was associated with a seemingly low agreement of positive real-time PCR results of 90.9%. However, if positive samples, either by routine microscopy or real-time PCR or both, were applied as a combined reference, the agreement of positive results obtained with real-time PCR was increased from 74.0% to 77.9%, while the agreement of positive results obtained with routine microscopy was decreased from 100% to 85.3%. The predictive value of routine microscopy for negative results in the reference was slightly better with 90.9% compared to real-time PCR with 86.9%; the concordance between routine microscopy and real-time PCR was imperfect. In conclusion, even suboptimal sample materials such as incubated blood culture materials can be applied for forensic malaria diagnosis, if more suitable sample materials are not available, but the molecular detection rate of positive results in routine microscopy is much lower than previously reported for non-incubated blood.

Clustering of malaria in households in the Greater Mekong Subregion: operational implications for reactive case detection

Background

Malaria reactive case detection is the testing and, if positive, treatment of close contacts of index cases. It is included in national malaria control programmes of countries in the Greater Mekong Subregion to accelerate malaria elimination. Yet the value of reactive case detection in the control and elimination of malaria remains controversial because of the low yield, limited evidence for impact, and high demands on resources.

Methods

Data from the epidemiological assessments of large mass drug administration (MDA) studies in Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos were analysed to explore malaria infection clustering in households. The proportion of malaria positive cases among contacts screened in a hypothetical reactive case detection programme was then determined. The parasite density thresholds for rapid diagnostic test (RDT) detection was assumed to be > 50/µL (50,000/mL), for dried-blood-spot (DBS) based PCR > 5/µL (5000/mL), and for ultrasensitive PCR (uPCR) with a validated limit of detection at 0.0022/µL (22/mL).

Results

At baseline, before MDA, 1223 Plasmodium infections were detected by uPCR in 693 households. There was clustering of Plasmodium infections. In 637 households with asymptomatic infections 44% (278/637) had more than one member with Plasmodium infections. In the 132 households with symptomatic infections, 65% (86/132) had more than one member with Plasmodium infections. At baseline 4% of households had more than one Plasmodium falciparum infection, but three months after MDA no household had more than one P. falciparum infected member. Reactive case detection using DBS PCR would have detected ten additional cases in six households, and an RDT screen would have detected five additional cases in three households among the 169 households with at least one RDT positive case. This translates to 19 and 9 additional cases identified per 1000 people screened, respectively. Overall, assuming all febrile RDT positive patients would seek treatment and provoke reactive case detection using RDTs, then 1047 of 1052 (99.5%) Plasmodium infections in these communities would have remained undetected.

Conclusion

Reactive case detection in the Greater Mekong subregion is predicted to have a negligible impact on the malaria burden, but it has substantial costs in terms of human and financial resources.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-03879-9.