Socioeconomic inequalities in hospitalizations for chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions: a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature, 1990-2018

Change in avoidable hospitalizations for low-income elders following quasi-market reform in primary care - Evidence from a natural experiment in Sweden

Quasi-market reforms have been increasingly implemented in tax-funded health care, but their effects in terms of equity, quality and socioeconomic differentials in quality remain sparsely studied. We create a natural experiment setup exploiting the differential timing of a set of quasi-market reforms - including patient choice, free establishment of providers and changes in provider remuneration -, implemented in primary care in the two largest Swedish regions (Stockholm and Västra Götaland) in 2008-2009. Using a database with individual level data from 2005 to 2009, we construct a difference-in-difference-in-differences model that compares pre to post reform changes in avoidable hospitalizations (AHs) for low-income elders and a matched comparison group, in the region exposed to, versus unexposed to, reform (total N ∼ 200 000). The results show that for low-income elders - a group dominated by older women - reform led to higher AH rates, i.e., worse primary health care quality, than what would have been the case in absence of reform. Specifically, low-income elders exposed to reform missed out on improvements in AHs seen simultaneously in the unexposed region. At the same time, the reform had on average no effect for comparable, non-low-income, peers. The fact that this pattern was specific for avoidable hospitalizations - judged as amenable to interventions in primary care -, but not present for total hospitalizations, supports that it was driven by reform implementation rather than other factors. The study contributes with high-quality empirical evidence to a policy relevant but sparsely researched area and highlights the necessity to consider differential effects of organizational changes across socioeconomic groups.

Preadmission morbidity and healthcare utilization among older adults with potentially avoidable hospitalizations: a Danish case-control study

PURPOSE

Examine preadmission diagnoses, medication use, and preadmission healthcare utilization among older adults prior to first potentially avoidable hospitalizations.

METHODS

A nationwide population-based case-control study using Danish healthcare data. All Danish adults aged ≥ 65 years who had a first potentially avoidable hospitalization from January 1995 through March 2019 (n = 725,939) were defined as cases, and 1:1 age- and sex-matched general population controls (n = 725,939). Preadmission morbidity and healthcare utilization were assessed based on a complete hospital diagnosis history within 10 years prior, and all medication use and healthcare contacts 1 year prior. Using log-binomial regression, we calculated adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Included cases and controls had a median age of 78 years and 59% were female. The burden of preadmission morbidity was higher among cases than controls. The strongest associations were observed for preadmission chronic lung disease (PR 3.8, CI 3.7-3.8), alcohol-related disease (PR 3.1, CI 3.0-3.2), chronic kidney disease (PR 2.4, CI 2.4-2.5), psychiatric disease (PR 2.2, CI 2.2-2.3), heart failure (PR 2.2, CI 2.2-2.3), and previous hospital contacts with infections (PR 2.2, CI 2.2-2.3). A high and accelerating number of healthcare contacts was observed during the months preceding the potentially avoidable hospitalization (having over 5 GP contacts 1 month prior, PR 3.0, CI 3.0-3.0).

CONCLUSION

A high number of healthcare contacts and preadmission morbidity and medication use, especially chronic lung, heart, and kidney disease, alcohol-related or psychiatric disease including dementia, and previous infections are strongly associated with potentially avoidable hospitalizations.

A novel application of interrupted time series analysis to identify the impact of a primary health care reform on intersectional inequities in avoidable hospitalizations in the adult Swedish population

Primary health care (PHC) systems are a crucial instrument for achieving equitable population health, but there is little evidence of how PHC reforms impact equities in population health. In 2010, Sweden implemented a reform that promoted marketization and privatization of PHC. The present study uses a novel integration of intersectionality-informed and evaluative epidemiological analytical frameworks to disentangle the impact of the 2010 Swedish PHC reform on intersectional inequities in avoidable hospitalizations. The study population comprised the total Swedish population aged 18-85 years across 2001-2017, in total 129 million annual observations, for whom register data on sociodemographics and hospitalizations due to ambulatory care sensitive conditions were retrieved. Multilevel Analysis of Individual Heterogeneity and Discriminatory Analyses (MAIHDA) were run for the pre-reform (2001-2009) and post-reform (2010-2017) periods to provide a mapping of inequities. In addition, random effects estimates reflecting the discriminatory accuracy of intersectional strata were extracted from a series MAIHDAs run per year 2001-2017. The estimates were re-analyzed by Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA), in order to identify the impact of the reform on measures of intersectional inequity in avoidable hospitalizations. The results point to a complex reconfiguration of social inequities following the reform. While the post-reform period showed a reduction in overall rates of avoidable hospitalizations and in age disparities, socioeconomic inequities in avoidable hospitalizations, as well as the importance of interactions between complex social positions, both increased. Socioeconomically disadvantaged groups born in the Nordic countries seem to have benefited the least from the reform. The study supports a greater attention to the potentially complex consequences that health reforms can have on inequities in health and health care, which may not be immediate apparent in conventional evaluations of either population-average outcomes, or by simple evaluations of equity impacts. Methodological approaches for evaluation of complex inequity impacts need further development.

Socioeconomic differences in older adults' unplanned hospital admissions: the role of health status and social network

BACKGROUND

the socioeconomic distribution of unplanned hospital admissions in older adults is poorly understood. We compared associations of two life-course measures of socioeconomic status (SES) with unplanned hospital admissions while comprehensively accounting for health, and examined the role of social network in this association.

METHODS

in 2,862 community-dwelling adults aged 60+ in Sweden, we derived (i) an aggregate life-course SES measure grouping individuals into Low, Middle or High SES based on a summative score, and (ii) a latent class measure that additionally identified a Mixed SES group, characterised by financial difficulties in childhood and old age. The health assessment combined measures of morbidity and functioning. The social network measure included social connections and support components. Negative binomial models estimated the change in hospital admissions over 4 years in relation to SES. Stratification and statistical interaction assessed effect modification by social network.

RESULTS

adjusting for health and social network, unplanned hospitalisation rates were higher for the latent Low SES and Mixed SES group (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12-1.69, P = 0.002; IRR = 2.06, 95% CI: 1.44-2.94, P < 0.001; respectively; ref: High SES). Mixed SES was at a substantially greater risk of unplanned hospital admissions among those with poor (and not rich) social network (IRR: 2.43, 95% CI: 1.44-4.07; ref: High SES), but the statistical interaction test was non-significant (P = 0.493).

CONCLUSION

socioeconomic distributions of older adults' unplanned hospitalisations were largely driven by health, although considering SES dynamics across life can reveal at-risk sub-populations. Financially disadvantaged older adults might benefit from interventions aimed at improving their social network.

The concentration of complexity: case mix in New Zealand general practice and the sustainability of primary care

Introduction New Zealand general practice and primary care is currently facing significant challenges and opportunities following the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the introduction of health sector reform. For future sustainability, it is important to understand the workload associated with differing levels of patient case mix seen in general practice. Aim To assess levels of morbidity and concomitant levels of socio-economic deprivation among primary care practices within a large primary health organisation (PHO) and associated Māori provider network. Methods Routinely collected practice data from a PHO of 57 practices and a Māori provider (PHO) of five medical practices in the same geographical area were used to compare a number of population health indicators between practices that had a high proportion of high needs patients (HPHN) and practices with a low proportion of high needs patients (Non-HPHN). Results When practices in these PHOs are grouped in terms of ethnicity distribution and deprivation scores between the HPHN and Non-HPHN groups, there is significantly increased clustering of both long-term conditions and health outcome risk factors in the HPHN practices. Discussion In this study, population adverse health determinants and established co-morbidities are concentrated into the defined health provider grouping of HPHN practices. This 'concentration of complexity' raises questions about models of care and adequate resourcing for quality primary care in these settings. The findings also highlight the need to develop equitable and appropriate resourcing for all patients in primary care.

Do children evaluated for maltreatment have higher subsequent emergency department and inpatient care utilization compared to a general pediatric sample?

BACKGROUND

Child maltreatment leads to substantial adverse health outcomes, but little is known about acute health care utilization patterns after children are evaluated for a concern of maltreatment at a child abuse and neglect medical evaluation clinic.

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the association of having a child maltreatment evaluation with subsequent acute health care utilization among children from birth to age three.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

Children who received a maltreatment evaluation (N = 367) at a child abuse and neglect subspecialty clinic in an academic health system in the United States and the general pediatric population (N = 21,231).

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study that compared acute health care utilization over 18 months between the two samples using data from electronic health records. Outcomes were time to first emergency department (ED) visit or inpatient hospitalization, maltreatment-related ED use or inpatient hospitalization, and ED use or inpatient hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs). Multilevel survival analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Children who received a maltreatment evaluation had an increased hazard for a subsequent ED visit or inpatient hospitalization (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.3, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.1, 1.5) and a maltreatment-related visit (HR: 4.4, 95 % CI: 2.3, 8.2) relative to the general pediatric population. A maltreatment evaluation was not associated with a higher hazard of health care use for ACSCs (HR: 1.0, 95 % CI: 0.7, 1.3).

CONCLUSION

This work can inform targeted anticipatory guidance to aid high-risk families in preventing future harm or minimizing complications from previous maltreatment.

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Abnormal Glucose Metabolism and New-Onset Diabetes Mellitus after Kidney Transplantation: A Single-Center Retrospective Observational Cohort Study

Background and objectives: New-onset diabetes after transplantation (NODAT) represents a primary cause of morbidity and allograft loss. We assessed prevalence and risk factors for NODAT in a population of Italian kidney transplant (KT) recipients. Methods: Data from 522 KT performed between January 2004 and December 2014 were analyzed. Participants underwent clinical examination; blood and urine laboratory tests were obtained at baseline, one, six, and 12-month of follow-up to detect glucose homeostasis abnormalities and associated metabolic disorders. An oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed at six months in 303 subjects. Results: Most patients were Caucasian (82.4%) with a mean age of 48 ± 12 years. The prevalence of abnormal glucose metabolism (AGM) and NODAT was 12.6% and 10.7%, respectively. Comparing characteristics of patients with normal glucose metabolism (NGM) to those with NODAT, we found a significant difference in living donation (16.6% vs. 6.1%; p = 0.03) and age at transplant (46 ± 12 vs. 56 ± 9 years; p = 0.0001). Also, we observed that patients developing NODAT had received higher cumulative steroid doses (1-month: 1165 ± 593 mg vs. 904 ± 427 mg; p = 0.002; 6-month:2194 ± 1159 mg vs. 1940 ± 744 mg; p = 0.002). The NODAT group showed inferior allograft function compared to patients with NGM (1-year eGFR: 50.1 ± 16.5 vs. 57 ± 20 mL/min/1.73 m²; p = 0.02). NODAT patients were more likely to exhibit elevated systolic blood pressure and higher total cholesterol and triglyceride levels than controls. Conclusions: The prevalence of NODAT in our cohort was relatively high. Patient age and early post-transplant events such as steroid abuse are associated with NODAT development.

Factors associated with mortality of the elderly due to ambulatory care sensitive conditions, between 2008 and 2018, in the Federal District, Brazil

Introduction

In Brazil, the Unified Health System (Sistema Único de Saúde, or SUS) provides health care, and an aging population overwhelms the system due to the greater vulnerability of the elderly. In the Federal District, two models of primary care coexist–the traditional primary care and the family health strategy. The present study aimed to analyze the factors associated with mortality of the elderly due to conditions sensitive to ambulatory care in the Federal District, Brazil.

Materials and methods

This cross-sectional study investigated all deaths that occurred in people over 60 years old between 2008 and 2018. The variables studied were age at death, sex, marital status, education, race/color, death by condition sensitive to ambulatory care, and population coverage of primary care services. The Urban Well-Being Index (UWBI) was used, which includes the dimensions: mobility, environmental and housing conditions, infrastructure, and collective services, to analyze issues related to the place where the senior citizen resides.

Results

The deaths 70,503 senior citizens were recorded during the study period. The factors associated with mortality in the elderly due to ambulatory care sensitive conditions were male, lower income, and less education. Residing in a place with poor UWBI presented a response gradient with higher mortality. Increased ambulatory care coverage was also associated with lower mortality.

Conclusions

The study evidenced an association between male gender, age, income, and education, and UWBI with lower mortality due to ambulatory care sensitive conditions, and these associations presented a response gradient. The study also found that increased coverage of the elderly population was associated with lower mortality from sensitive conditions.

Interventions to Prevent Potentially Avoidable Hospitalizations: A Mixed Methods Systematic Review

Background

The demand for healthcare is increasing due to an aging population, more people living with chronic diseases and medical comorbidities. To manage this demand, political institutions call for action to reduce the potentially avoidable hospitalizations. Quantitative and qualitative aspects should be considered to understand how and why interventions work, and for whom. The aim of this mixed methods systematic review was to identify and synthesize evidence on interventions targeting avoidable hospitalizations from the perspectives of the citizens and the healthcare professionals to improve the preventive healthcare services.

Methods and Results

A mixed methods systematic review was conducted following the JBI methodology using a convergent integrated approach to synthesis. The review protocol was registered in PROSPERO, reg. no. CRD42020134652. A systematic search was undertaken in six databases. In total, 45 articles matched the eligibility criteria, and 25 of these (five qualitative studies and 20 quantitative studies) were found to be of acceptable methodological quality. From the 25 articles, 99 meaning units were extracted. The combined evidence revealed four categories, which were synthesized into two integrated findings: (1) Addressing individual needs through care continuity and coordination prevent avoidable hospitalizations and (2) Recognizing preventive care as an integrated part of the healthcare work to prevent avoidable hospitalizations.

Conclusions

The syntheses highlight the importance of addressing individual needs through continuous and coordinated care practices to prevent avoidable hospitalizations. Engaging healthcare professionals in preventive care work and considering implications for patient safety may be given higher priority. Healthcare administers and policy-makers could support the delivery of preventive care through targeted educational material aimed at healthcare professionals and simple web-based IT platforms for information-sharing across healthcare settings. The findings are an important resource in the development and implementation of interventions to prevent avoidable hospitalizations, and may serve to improve patient safety and quality in preventive healthcare services.

Systematic Review Registration:https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=134652, identifier: CRD42020134652.

Person-centred care to prevent hospitalisations - a focus group study addressing the views of healthcare providers

Background

The primary healthcare sector comprises various health services, including disease prevention at local level. Research shows that targeted primary healthcare services can prevent the development of acute complications and ultimately reduce the risk of hospitalisations. While interdisciplinary collaboration has been suggested as a means to improve the quality and responsiveness of personal care needs in preventive services, effective implementation remains a challenge. To improve the quality and responsiveness of primary healthcare and to develop initiatives to support the interdisciplinary collaboration in preventive services, there is a need to investigate the views of primary healthcare providers. The aim of this study was to investigate perceptions of preventive care among primary healthcare providers by examining their views on what constitutes a need for hospitalisation, and which strategies are found useful to prevent hospitalisation. Further, to explain how interdisciplinary collaboration can be supported with a view to providing person-centred care.

Methods

Five focus group interviews were conducted with 27 healthcare providers, including general practitioners, social and healthcare assistants, occupational therapists, physiotherapists, home care nurses, specialist nurses and acute care nurses. Interviews were transcribed, and analysed with qualitative content analysis.

Results

Three categories emerged from the analysis: 1) Mental and social conditions influence physical functioning and hospitalisation need, 2) Well-established primary healthcare services are important to provide person-centred care through interdisciplinary collaboration and 3) Interdisciplinary collaboration in primary healthcare services is predominantly focussed on handling acute physical conditions. These describe that the healthcare providers are attentive towards the influence of mental, social and physical conditions on the risk of hospitalisation, entailing a focus on person-centred care. Nevertheless, in the preventive services, interdisciplinary collaboration focusses primarily on handling acute physical conditions, which constitutes a barrier for interdisciplinary collaboration.

Conclusions

By focusing on the whole person, it could be possible to provide more person-centred care through interdisciplinary collaboration and ultimately to prevent some hospitalisations. Stakeholders at all levels should be informed about the relevance of considering mental, social and physical conditions to improve the quality and responsiveness of primary healthcare services and to develop initiatives to support interdisciplinary collaboration.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-022-08198-6.

Avoidable hospitalizations and access to primary care: comparisons among Italians, resident immigrants and undocumented immigrants in administrative hospital discharge records

BACKGROUND

Immigrants face multiple barriers in accessing healthcare; however, empirical assessment of access presents serious methodological issues, and evidence on undocumented immigrants is scant and based mainly on non-representative samples. We examine avoidable hospitalization (AH) as an indicator of poor access to primary care (PC) in Italy, where a universal healthcare system guarantees access but fails to assign general practitioners to undocumented immigrants.

METHODS

Using anonymized national hospital discharge records in 2019, undocumented immigrants were identified through an administrative financing code. Potential effects of poor access to PC were measured by focusing on the incidence of AH, differentiated among chronic, acute and vaccine-preventable conditions, comparing Italian citizens, documented (foreign nationals with residence permits) and undocumented immigrants. We estimated odd ratios (ORs) through logistic regression models, controlling for individual and contextual confounders.

FINDINGS

Compared with Italians, undocumented and documented immigrants adjusted odd ratios (OR) for the risk of AH were 1·422 (95% CI 1·322-1·528) and 1·243 (95% CI 1·201-1·287), respectively. Documented immigrants showed ORs not significantly greater than 1 for AH due to chronic diseases compared with Italians, while undocumented immigrants registered higher adjusted OR for all AH categories - chronic (OR 1·187; 95% CI 1·064-1·325), acute (OR 1·645; 95% CI 1·500-1·803) and vaccine-preventable (OR 2·170; 95% CI 1·285-3·664).

INTERPRETATION

Documented and undocumented immigrants face considerably higher risk of AH compared to Italians. Considering the burden of AHs, access to PC (including preventive and ambulatory care) should be provided to undocumented immigrants, and additional barriers to care for all immigrants should be further explored.

FUNDING

None.

Avoidable Hospitalization Trends From Ambulatory Care-Sensitive Conditions in the Public Health System in México

OBJECTIVES

To estimate and identify the variations in rates of Avoidable Hospitalization for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions (AH-ACSC) in public institutions of the Mexican health system during the period 2010-2017.

METHODS

Secondary analysis of the hospital discharge database of the Ministry of Health (MoH) from 2010 to 2017. AH for ACSC was calculated by age group and sex per 100,000. Variations per year between institutions were calculated with the extreme quotient (EQ), coefficient of variation (CV) and systematic component of variance (SCV). Adjusted AH rates were calculated by group of causes (acute, chronic and preventable by vaccination). Adjusted AH trend rates were analyzed by Join Point Regression.

RESULTS

For the period 2010-2017, the number of AH for ACSC decreased from 676,705 to 612,897, going from almost 13% to 10.7% of hospital discharges. There is consistency in terms of relative variance magnitude. But, with regards to SCV, the change remained constant, and in a second period of 2015-2017, high variation was observed by SCV ≥ 3. All-cause AH is diminishing in all institutions. AH rates for diabetes are the highest, but like other chronic diseases, there was a decline in the period from 2010 to 2017. The relative reduction varied from 15% for heart failure to 38% for complications from diabetes or hypertension, to 75% for angina.

CONCLUSIONS

AH for ACSC is an indirect indicator of quality and access to first-level care. Variations by institutions are observed. This variation in CV and SCV across subsystems and states may be due to inequities in the provision of services. The factors that contribute to the burden of AH for ACSC in the Mexican Health System require detailed analysis.

Applicability of Pharmacogenomically Guided Medication Treatment during Hospitalization of At-Risk Minority Patients

Known disparities exist in the availability of pharmacogenomic information for minority populations, amplifying uncertainty around clinical utility for these groups. We conducted a multi-site inpatient pharmacogenomic implementation program among self-identified African-Americans (AA; n = 135) with numerous rehospitalizations (n = 341) from 2017 to 2020 (NIH-funded ACCOuNT project/clinicaltrials.gov#NCT03225820). We evaluated the point-of-care availability of patient pharmacogenomic results to healthcare providers via an electronic clinical decision support tool. Among newly added medications during hospitalizations and at discharge, we examined the most frequently utilized medications with associated pharmacogenomic results. The population was predominantly female (61%) with a mean age of 53 years (range 19-86). On average, six medications were newly prescribed during each individual hospital admission. For 48% of all hospitalizations, clinical pharmacogenomic information was applicable to at least one newly prescribed medication. Most results indicated genomic favorability, although nearly 29% of newly prescribed medications indicated increased genomic caution (increase in toxicity risk/suboptimal response). More than one of every five medications prescribed to AA patients at hospital discharge were associated with cautionary pharmacogenomic results (most commonly pantoprazole/suboptimal antacid effect). Notably, high-risk pharmacogenomic results (genomic contraindication) were exceedingly rare. We conclude that the applicability of pharmacogenomic information during hospitalizations for vulnerable populations at-risk for experiencing health disparities is substantial and warrants continued prospective investigation.

Opportunity to inform social needs within a hospital setting using data-driven patient engagement

Background

High-risk patients account for a disproportionate amount of healthcare use, necessitating the development of care delivery solutions aimed specifically at reducing this use. These interventions have largely been unsuccessful, perhaps due to a lack of attention to patients’ social needs and engagement of patients in developing solutions.

Methods

The project team used a combination of administrative data, information culled from charts and interviews with high-risk patients to understand social needs, the current experience of addressing social needs in the hospital, and patient preferences and identified opportunities for improvement. Interviews were conducted in March and April 2020, and patients were asked to reflect on their experiences both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Results

A total of 4579 patients with 26 168 visits to the emergency department and 2904 inpatient admissions in the previous year were identified. Qualitative analysis resulted in three themes: (1) the interaction between social needs, demographics, and health; (2) the hospital’s role in addressing social needs; and (3) the impact of social needs on experiences of care. Themes related to experiences before and during COVID-19 did not differ. Three opportunities were identified: (1) training for staff related to stigma and trauma, (2) improved documentation of social needs and (3) creation of navigation programmes.

Discussion

Certain demographic factors were clearly associated with an increased need for social support. Unfortunately, many factors identified by patients as mediating their need for such support were not consistently captured. Going forward, high-risk patients should be included in the development of quality improvement initiatives and programmes to address social needs.

Association of Race and Ethnicity with COVID-19 Test Positivity and Hospitalization Is Mediated by Socioeconomic Factors

Rationale: Black race and Hispanic ethnicity are associated with increased risks for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infection and severity. It is purported that socioeconomic factors may drive this association, but data supporting this assertion are sparse. Objectives: To evaluate whether socioeconomic factors mediate the association of race/ethnicity with COVID-19 incidence and outcomes. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults tested for (cohort 1) or hospitalized with (cohort 2) COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and July 23, 2020, at the University of Miami Hospital and Clinics. Our primary exposure was race/ethnicity. We considered socioeconomic factors as potential mediators of our exposure's association with outcomes. We used standard statistics to describe our cohorts and multivariable regression modeling to identify associations of race/ethnicity with our primary outcomes, one for each cohort, of test positivity (cohort 1) and hospital mortality (cohort 2). We performed a mediation analysis to see whether household income, population density, and household size mediated the association of race/ethnicity with outcomes. Results: Our cohorts included 15,473 patients tested (29.0% non-Hispanic White, 48.1% Hispanic White, 15.0% non-Hispanic Black, 1.7% Hispanic Black, and 1.6% other) and 295 patients hospitalized (9.2% non-Hispanic White, 56.9% Hispanic White, 21.4% non-Hispanic Black, 2.4% Hispanic Black, and 10.2% other). Among those tested, 1,256 patients (8.1%) tested positive, and, of the hospitalized patients, 47 (15.9%) died. After adjustment for demographics, race/ethnicity was associated with test positivity-odds-ratio (95% confidence interval [CI]) versus non-Hispanic White for Non-Hispanic Black: 3.21 (2.60-3.96), Hispanic White: 2.72 (2.28-3.26), and Hispanic Black: 3.55 (2.33-5.28). Population density mediated this association (percentage mediated, 17%; 95% CI, 11-31%), as did median income (27%; 95% CI, 18-52%) and household size (20%; 95% CI, 12-45%). There was no association between race/ethnicity and mortality, although this analysis was underpowered. Conclusions: Black race and Hispanic ethnicity are associated with an increased odds of COVID-19 positivity. This association is substantially mediated by socioeconomic factors.

Predicting asthma-related crisis events using routine electronic healthcare data

BACKGROUND

There is no published algorithm predicting asthma crisis events (Accident and Emergency (A&E) attendance, hospitalisation or death) using routinely available electronic health record (EHR) data.

AIM

To develop an algorithm to identify individuals at high risk of an asthma crisis event.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Database analysis from primary care EHRs.

METHOD

Multivariable logistic regression was applied to a dataset of 61,861 people with asthma from England and Scotland using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. External validation was performed using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank of 174,240 patients from Wales. Outcomes were one or more hospitalisation (development dataset) and asthma-related hospitalisation, A&E attendance or death (validation dataset) within a 12-month period.

RESULTS

Risk factors for asthma-related crisis events included previous hospitalisation, older age, underweight, smoking and blood eosinophilia. The prediction algorithm had acceptable predictive ability with a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) of 0.71 (0.70, 0.72) in the validation dataset. Using a cut-point based on the 7% of the population at greatest risk results in a positive predictive value of 5.7% (95% CI 5.3 - 6.1) and a negative predictive value of 98.9% (98.9 - 99.0), with sensitivity of 28.5% (26.7 - 30.3) and specificity of 93.3% (93.2 - 93.4); they had an event risk of 6.0% compared 1.1% for the remaining population. Eighteen people would be "needed to follow" to identify one admission.

CONCLUSIONS

This externally validated algorithm has acceptable predictive ability for identifying patients at high risk of asthma-related crisis events and excluding individuals not at high risk.