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Wang Y, Li C, Zhao S, Wei Y, Li K, Jiang X, Ho J, Ran J, Han L, Zee BCY, Chong KC. Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2024; 18:e0012158. [PMID: 38683870 PMCID: PMC11081495 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0012158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2023] [Revised: 05/09/2024] [Accepted: 04/19/2024] [Indexed: 05/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Vector-borne infectious disease such as dengue fever (DF) has spread rapidly due to more suitable living environments. Considering the limited studies investigating the disease spread under climate change in South and Southeast Asia, this study aimed to project the DF transmission potential in 30 locations across four South and Southeast Asian countries. In this study, weekly DF incidence data, daily mean temperature, and rainfall data in 30 locations in Singapore, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Thailand from 2012 to 2020 were collected. The effects of temperature and rainfall on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of DF transmission were examined using generalized additive models. Projections of location-specific Rt from 2030s to 2090s were determined using projected temperature and rainfall under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), and the peak DF transmissibility and epidemic duration in the future were estimated. According to the results, the projected changes in the peak Rt and epidemic duration varied across locations, and the most significant change was observed under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Under SSP585, the country-specific peak Rt was projected to decrease from 1.63 (95% confidence interval: 1.39-1.91), 2.60 (1.89-3.57), and 1.41 (1.22-1.64) in 2030s to 1.22 (0.98-1.51), 2.09 (1.26-3.47), and 1.37 (0.83-2.27) in 2090s in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, respectively. Yet, the peak Rt in Sri Lanka changed slightly from 2030s to 2090s under SSP585. The epidemic duration in Singapore and Malaysia was projected to decline under SSP585. In conclusion, the change of peak DF transmission potential and disease outbreak duration would vary across locations, particularly under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Interventions should be considered to slow down global warming as well as the potential increase in DF transmissibility in some locations of South and Southeast Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yawen Wang
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Conglu Li
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Shi Zhao
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
- School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
| | - Yuchen Wei
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Kehang Li
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Xiaoting Jiang
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Janice Ho
- Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Jinjun Ran
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Lefei Han
- School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Benny Chung-ying Zee
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
| | - Ka Chun Chong
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
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Colston JM. Elucidating the Impacts of Climate on Dengue Transmission Through Mathematical Models: New Evidence From a Recent Outbreak on the Island of Réunion. J Infect Dis 2024; 229:1-3. [PMID: 37988607 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiad473] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Josh M Colston
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, 345 Crispell Drive, Building MR-6, Charlottesville, Virginia
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3
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Delrieu M, Martinet JP, O’Connor O, Viennet E, Menkes C, Burtet-Sarramegna V, Frentiu FD, Dupont-Rouzeyrol M. Temperature and transmission of chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses: A systematic review of experimental studies on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. CURRENT RESEARCH IN PARASITOLOGY & VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES 2023; 4:100139. [PMID: 37719233 PMCID: PMC10500480 DOI: 10.1016/j.crpvbd.2023.100139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2023] [Revised: 08/11/2023] [Accepted: 08/16/2023] [Indexed: 09/19/2023]
Abstract
Mosquito-borne viruses are leading causes of morbidity and mortality in many parts of the world. In recent years, modelling studies have shown that climate change strongly influences vector-borne disease transmission, particularly rising temperatures. As a result, the risk of epidemics has increased, posing a significant public health risk. This review aims to summarize all published laboratory experimental studies carried out over the years to determine the impact of temperature on the transmission of arboviruses by the mosquito vector. Given their high public health importance, we focus on dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, which are transmitted by the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Following PRISMA guidelines, 34 papers were included in this systematic review. Most studies found that increasing temperatures result in higher rates of infection, dissemination, and transmission of these viruses in mosquitoes, although several studies had differing findings. Overall, the studies reviewed here suggest that rising temperatures due to climate change would alter the vector competence of mosquitoes to increase epidemic risk, but that some critical research gaps remain.
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Affiliation(s)
- Méryl Delrieu
- Institut Pasteur de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Institut Pasteur International
Network, URE Dengue et Arborises, Nouméa 98845, New Caledonia
| | - Jean-Philippe Martinet
- Institut Pasteur de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Institut Pasteur International
Network, URE Dengue et Arborises, Nouméa 98845, New Caledonia
| | - Olivia O’Connor
- Institut Pasteur de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Institut Pasteur International
Network, URE Dengue et Arborises, Nouméa 98845, New Caledonia
| | - Elvina Viennet
- School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology,
Kelvin Grove, QLD 4059, Australia
| | - Christophe Menkes
- ENTROPIE, IRD, University of New Caledonia, University of La Réunion,
CNRS, Ifremer, Nouméa, New Caledonia
| | - Valérie Burtet-Sarramegna
- Institute of Exact and Applied Sciences (ISEA), University of New
Caledonia, 45 Avenue James Cook - BP R4 98 851 - Nouméa Cedex, New
Caledonia
| | - Francesca D. Frentiu
- School of Biomedical Sciences, And Centre for Immunology and Infection
Control, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4000,
Australia
| | - Myrielle Dupont-Rouzeyrol
- Institut Pasteur de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Institut Pasteur International
Network, URE Dengue et Arborises, Nouméa 98845, New Caledonia
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4
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Cuervo PF, Artigas P, Lorenzo-Morales J, Bargues MD, Mas-Coma S. Ecological Niche Modelling Approaches: Challenges and Applications in Vector-Borne Diseases. Trop Med Infect Dis 2023; 8:tropicalmed8040187. [PMID: 37104313 PMCID: PMC10141209 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed8040187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2023] [Revised: 03/17/2023] [Accepted: 03/21/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose a major threat to human and animal health, with more than 80% of the global population being at risk of acquiring at least one major VBD. Being profoundly affected by the ongoing climate change and anthropogenic disturbances, modelling approaches become an essential tool to assess and compare multiple scenarios (past, present and future), and further the geographic risk of transmission of VBDs. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) is rapidly becoming the gold-standard method for this task. The purpose of this overview is to provide an insight of the use of ENM to assess the geographic risk of transmission of VBDs. We have summarised some fundamental concepts and common approaches to ENM of VBDS, and then focused with a critical view on a number of crucial issues which are often disregarded when modelling the niches of VBDs. Furthermore, we have briefly presented what we consider the most relevant uses of ENM when dealing with VBDs. Niche modelling of VBDs is far from being simple, and there is still a long way to improve. Therefore, this overview is expected to be a useful benchmark for niche modelling of VBDs in future research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pablo Fernando Cuervo
- Departamento de Parasitologia, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Valencia, Av. Vicent Andres Estelles s/n, 46100 Burjassot, Valencia, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, C/Monforte de Lemos 3-5. Pabellón 11, Planta 0, 28029 Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Correspondence:
| | - Patricio Artigas
- Departamento de Parasitologia, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Valencia, Av. Vicent Andres Estelles s/n, 46100 Burjassot, Valencia, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, C/Monforte de Lemos 3-5. Pabellón 11, Planta 0, 28029 Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Jacob Lorenzo-Morales
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, C/Monforte de Lemos 3-5. Pabellón 11, Planta 0, 28029 Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Instituto Universitario de Enfermedades Tropicales y Salud Pública de Canarias, Universidad de La Laguna, Av. Astrofísico Fco. Sánchez s/n, 38203 La Laguna, Canary Islands, Spain
| | - María Dolores Bargues
- Departamento de Parasitologia, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Valencia, Av. Vicent Andres Estelles s/n, 46100 Burjassot, Valencia, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, C/Monforte de Lemos 3-5. Pabellón 11, Planta 0, 28029 Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Santiago Mas-Coma
- Departamento de Parasitologia, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Valencia, Av. Vicent Andres Estelles s/n, 46100 Burjassot, Valencia, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, C/Monforte de Lemos 3-5. Pabellón 11, Planta 0, 28029 Madrid, Madrid, Spain
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Islam MA, Hasan MN, Tiwari A, Raju MAW, Jannat F, Sangkham S, Shammas MI, Sharma P, Bhattacharya P, Kumar M. Correlation of Dengue and Meteorological Factors in Bangladesh: A Public Health Concern. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:5152. [PMID: 36982061 PMCID: PMC10049245 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20065152] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2023] [Revised: 02/20/2023] [Accepted: 02/24/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Dengue virus (DENV) is an enveloped, single-stranded RNA virus, a member of the Flaviviridae family (which causes Dengue fever), and an arthropod-transmitted human viral infection. Bangladesh is well known for having some of Asia's most vulnerable Dengue outbreaks, with climate change, its location, and it's dense population serving as the main contributors. For speculation about DENV outbreak characteristics, it is crucial to determine how meteorological factors correlate with the number of cases. This study used five time series models to observe the trend and forecast Dengue cases. Current data-based research has also applied four statistical models to test the relationship between Dengue-positive cases and meteorological parameters. Datasets were used from NASA for meteorological parameters, and daily DENV cases were obtained from the Directorate General of Health Service (DGHS) open-access websites. During the study period, the mean of DENV cases was 882.26 ± 3993.18, ranging between a minimum of 0 to a maximum of 52,636 daily confirmed cases. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient between climatic variables and Dengue incidence indicated that no substantial relationship exists between daily Dengue cases and wind speed, temperature, and surface pressure (Spearman's rho; r = -0.007, p > 0.05; r = 0.085, p > 0.05; and r = -0.086, p > 0.05, respectively). Still, a significant relationship exists between daily Dengue cases and dew point, relative humidity, and rainfall (r = 0.158, p < 0.05; r = 0.175, p < 0.05; and r = 0.138, p < 0.05, respectively). Using the ARIMAX and GA models, the relationship for Dengue cases with wind speed is -666.50 [95% CI: -1711.86 to 378.86] and -953.05 [-2403.46 to 497.36], respectively. A similar negative relation between Dengue cases and wind speed was also determined in the GLM model (IRR = 0.98). Dew point and surface pressure also represented a negative correlation in both ARIMAX and GA models, respectively, but the GLM model showed a positive association. Additionally, temperature and relative humidity showed a positive correlation with Dengue cases (105.71 and 57.39, respectively, in the ARIMAX, 633.86, and 200.03 in the GA model). In contrast, both temperature and relative humidity showed negative relation with Dengue cases in the GLM model. In the Poisson regression model, windspeed has a substantial significant negative connection with Dengue cases in all seasons. Temperature and rainfall are significantly and positively associated with Dengue cases in all seasons. The association between meteorological factors and recent outbreak data is the first study where we are aware of the use of maximum time series models in Bangladesh. Taking comprehensive measures against DENV outbreaks in the future can be possible through these findings, which can help fellow researchers and policymakers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Md. Aminul Islam
- COVID-19 Diagnostic Lab, Department of Microbiology, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali 3814, Bangladesh
- Advanced Molecular Lab, Department of Microbiology, President Abdul Hamid Medical College, Karimganj 2310, Bangladesh
| | - Mohammad Nayeem Hasan
- Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
| | - Ananda Tiwari
- Department of Health Security, Expert Microbiology Research Unit, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, 70701 Kuopio, Finland
| | - Md. Abdul Wahid Raju
- Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
| | - Fateha Jannat
- Department of Public Health, North East University, Sylhet 3100, Bangladesh
| | - Sarawut Sangkham
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of Phayao, Muang District, Phayao 56000, Thailand
| | - Mahaad Issa Shammas
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Dhofar University, P.O. Box 2509, Salalah PC 211, Oman
| | - Prabhakar Sharma
- School of Ecology and Environment Studies, Nalanda University, Rajgir 803116, India
| | - Prosun Bhattacharya
- COVID-19 Research, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Teknikringen 10B, SE 10044 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Manish Kumar
- Sustainability Cluster, University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun 248007, India
- Escuela de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Tecnologico de Monterrey, Campus Monterey, Eugenio Garza Sada 2501 Sur, Monterrey 64849, Mexico
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Yu CX, Tan JW, Rullah K, Imran S, Tham CL. Insight parameter drug design for human β-tryptase inhibition integrated molecular docking, QSAR, molecular dynamics simulation, and pharmacophore modelling studies of α-keto-[1,2,4]-oxadiazoles. J Biomol Struct Dyn 2023; 41:12978-12996. [PMID: 36709457 DOI: 10.1080/07391102.2023.2171131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2022] [Accepted: 01/11/2023] [Indexed: 01/30/2023]
Abstract
Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is severe dengue with a hallmark of vascular leakage. β-tryptase has been found to promote vascular leakage in DHF patients, which could be a potential target for DHF treatment. This study aims to develop a theoretical background for designing and selecting human β-tryptase inhibitors through computational studies. Thirty-four α-keto-[1,2,3]-oxadiazoles scaffold-based compounds were used to generate 2D-QSAR models and for molecular docking studies with β-tryptase (PDB Code 4A6L). In addition, molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and molecular mechanics generalised born surface area (MM-GBSA) analysis on the binding of the reported most active compound, compound 11e, towards β-tryptase were performed. Finally, a structure-based pharmacophore model was generated. The selected 2D-QSAR models have statistically proven good models by internal and external validation as well as the y-randomization test. The docking results of compound 11e showed lower CDOCKER energy than the 4A6L co-crystallised ligand and a similar binding pattern as the 4A6L co-crystallised ligand. From molecular dynamics simulation, 4A6L in compound 11e bound state has RMSD below 2 Å throughout the 500 ns simulation, indicating the docked complex is stable. Besides, MM-GBSA analysis suggested the 4A6L-compound 11e docked complex (-66.04 Kcal/mol) is structurally as stable as the 4A6L-native ligand co-crystallized structure (-66.84 Kcal/mol). The best pharmacophore model identified features included hydrogen bond acceptor, ionic interaction, hydrophobic interaction, and aromatic ring, which contribute to the inhibitory potency of a compound. This study supplied insight and knowledge for developing novel chemical compounds with improved inhibition of β-tryptase.Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chai Xin Yu
- Department of Biomedical Science, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Jian Wei Tan
- Department of Biomedical Science, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Kamal Rullah
- Drug Discovery and Synthetic Chemistry Research Group, Department of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Kulliyyah of Pharmacy, International Islamic University Malaysia, Kuantan, Pahang, Malaysia
| | - Syahrul Imran
- Atta-ur-Rahman Institute for Natural Product Discovery (AuRIns), Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Selangor Kampus Puncak Alam, Puncak Alam, Selangor, Malaysia
- Faculty of Applied Science, Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Chau Ling Tham
- Department of Biomedical Science, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
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Seok S, Raz CD, Miller JH, Malcolm AN, Eason MD, Romero-Weaver AL, Giordano BV, Jacobsen CM, Wang X, Akbari OS, Raban R, Mathias DK, Caragata EP, Vorsino AE, Chiu JC, Lee Y. Arboviral disease outbreaks, Aedes mosquitoes, and vector control efforts in the Pacific. FRONTIERS IN TROPICAL DISEASES 2023. [DOI: 10.3389/fitd.2023.1035273] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Recurring outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases, like dengue, in the Pacific region represent a major biosecurity risk to neighboring continents through potential introductions of disease-causing pathogens. Aedes mosquitoes, highly prevalent in this region, are extremely invasive and the predominant vectors of multiple viruses including causing dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. Due to the absence of vaccines for most of these diseases, Aedes control remains a high priority for public health. Currently, international organizations put their efforts into improving mosquito surveillance programs in the Pacific region. Also, a novel biocontrol method using Wolbachia has been tried in the Pacific region to control Aedes mosquito populations. A comprehensive understanding of mosquito biology is needed to assess the risk that mosquitoes might be introduced to neighboring islands in the region and how this might impact arboviral virus transmission. As such, we present a comprehensive review of arboviral disease outbreak records as well as Aedes mosquito biology research findings relevant to the Pacific region collected from both non-scientific and scientific sources.
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Optimal Validated Multi-Factorial Climate Change Risk Assessment for Adaptation Planning and Evaluation of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Indonesia. Trop Med Infect Dis 2022; 7:tropicalmed7080172. [PMID: 36006264 PMCID: PMC9415645 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed7080172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2022] [Revised: 07/28/2022] [Accepted: 07/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
(1) Background: This paper will present an elaboration of the risk assessment methodology by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GIZ), Eurac Research and United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) for the assessment of dengue. (2) Methods: We validate the risk assessment model by best-fitting it with the number of dengue cases per province using the least-square fitting method. Seven out of thirty-four provinces in Indonesia were chosen (North Sumatra, Jakarta Capital, West Java, Central Java, East Java, Bali and East Kalimantan). (3) Results: A risk assessment based on the number of dengue cases showed an increased risk in 2010, 2015 and 2016 in which the effects of El Nino and La Nina extreme climates occurred. North Sumatra, Bali, and West Java were more influenced by the vulnerability component, in line with their risk analysis that tends to be lower than the other provinces in 2010, 2015 and 2016 when El Nino and La Nina occurred. (4) Conclusion: Based on data from the last ten years, in Jakarta Capital, Central Java, East Java and East Kalimantan, dengue risks were mainly influenced by the climatic hazard component while North Sumatra, Bali and West Java were more influenced by the vulnerability component.
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