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Modethed W, Singhla T, Boonsri K, Pringproa K, Sthitmatee N, Vinitchaikul P, Sansamur C, Kreausukon K, Punyapornwithaya V. Identifying the patterns and sizes of the first lumpy skin disease outbreak clusters in Northern Thailand with a high degree of dairy farm aggregation using spatio-temporal models. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0291692. [PMID: 37967138 PMCID: PMC10651038 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0291692] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2023] [Accepted: 09/01/2023] [Indexed: 11/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is one of the most important notifiable transboundary diseases affecting cattle in many parts of the world. In Thailand, LSD outbreaks in cattle farming areas have been reported in 69 out of 77 provinces, indicating a serious nationwide situation. Understanding the dynamics of spatial and temporal LSD epidemic patterns can provide important information on disease transmission and control. This study aims to identify spatial and temporal clusters in the first LSD outbreaks in dairy farming areas with a high degree of aggregation in Northern Thailand using spatio-temporal models. The data were obtained from an official LSD outbreak investigation conducted between June and August 2021 on dairy farms (n = 202). The outbreak of LSD was confirmed by employing clinical observations and laboratory analysis. The spatio-temporal models including space-time permutation (STP), Poisson, and Bernoulli were applied to the outbreak data with the settings of 10%, 25%, and 50%, respectively, for the maximum reported cluster size (MRCS). Overall, the number of most likely and secondary clusters varied depending on the model and MRCS settings. All MRCS settings in the STP model detected the most likely clusters in the same area and the Poisson models in different areas, with the largest being defined by a 50% MRCS. Although the sizes of the most likely clusters identified by the Bernoulli models were different, they all had the same cluster period. Based on the sizes of the detected clusters, strict LSD insect-vector control should be undertaken within one kilometer of the outbreak farm in areas where no LSD vaccination has been administered. This study determines the sizes and patterns of LSD outbreak clusters in the dairy farming area with a high degree of farm aggregation. The spatio-temporal study models used in this study, along with multiple adjusted MRCS, provide critical epidemiological information. These models also expand the options for assisting livestock authorities in facilitating effective LSD prevention and control programs. By prioritizing areas for resource allocation, these models can help improve the efficiency of such programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wittawat Modethed
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Tawatchai Singhla
- Ruminant Clinic, Department of Food Animal Clinics, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
- Research Center of Veterinary Biosciences and Veterinary Public Health, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Kittikorn Boonsri
- Center of Veterinary Diagnosis and Technology Transfer, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Kidsadagon Pringproa
- Research Center of Veterinary Biosciences and Veterinary Public Health, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
- Department of Veterinary Biosciences and Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Nattawooti Sthitmatee
- Research Center of Veterinary Biosciences and Veterinary Public Health, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
- Department of Veterinary Biosciences and Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
- Laboratory of Veterinary Vaccine and Biological Products, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Paramintra Vinitchaikul
- Ruminant Clinic, Department of Food Animal Clinics, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
- Research Center of Veterinary Biosciences and Veterinary Public Health, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Chalutwan Sansamur
- Akkhararatchakumari Veterinary College, Walailak University, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand
| | - Khwanchai Kreausukon
- Ruminant Clinic, Department of Food Animal Clinics, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
- Research Center of Veterinary Biosciences and Veterinary Public Health, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Veerasak Punyapornwithaya
- Research Center of Veterinary Biosciences and Veterinary Public Health, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
- Department of Veterinary Biosciences and Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
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Moon J, Kim M, Jung I. Optimizing the maximum reported cluster size for the multinomial-based spatial scan statistic. Int J Health Geogr 2023; 22:30. [PMID: 37940917 PMCID: PMC10631089 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-023-00353-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2023] [Accepted: 11/01/2023] [Indexed: 11/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Correctly identifying spatial disease cluster is a fundamental concern in public health and epidemiology. The spatial scan statistic is widely used for detecting spatial disease clusters in spatial epidemiology and disease surveillance. Many studies default to a maximum reported cluster size (MRCS) set at 50% of the total population when searching for spatial clusters. However, this default setting can sometimes report clusters larger than true clusters, which include less relevant regions. For the Poisson, Bernoulli, ordinal, normal, and exponential models, a Gini coefficient has been developed to optimize the MRCS. Yet, no measure is available for the multinomial model. RESULTS We propose two versions of a spatial cluster information criterion (SCIC) for selecting the optimal MRCS value for the multinomial-based spatial scan statistic. Our simulation study suggests that SCIC improves the accuracy of reporting true clusters. Analysis of the Korea Community Health Survey (KCHS) data further demonstrates that our method identifies more meaningful small clusters compared to the default setting. CONCLUSIONS Our method focuses on improving the performance of the spatial scan statistic by optimizing the MRCS value when using the multinomial model. In public health and disease surveillance, the proposed method can be used to provide more accurate and meaningful spatial cluster detection for multinomial data, such as disease subtypes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jisu Moon
- Division of Biostatistics, Department of Biomedical Systems Informatics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, 50-1 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, 03722, Korea
| | - Minseok Kim
- Division of Biostatistics, Department of Biomedical Systems Informatics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, 50-1 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, 03722, Korea
| | - Inkyung Jung
- Division of Biostatistics, Department of Biomedical Systems Informatics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, 50-1 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, 03722, Korea.
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Wang Z, Dong W, Yang K. Spatiotemporal Analysis and Risk Assessment Model Research of Diabetes among People over 45 Years Old in China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:9861. [PMID: 36011493 PMCID: PMC9407905 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19169861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2022] [Revised: 08/06/2022] [Accepted: 08/08/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Diabetes, which is a chronic disease with a high prevalence in people over 45 years old in China, is a public health issue of global concern. In order to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of diabetes among people over 45 years old in China, to find out diabetes risk factors, and to assess its risk, we used spatial autocorrelation, spatiotemporal cluster analysis, binary logistic regression, and a random forest model in this study. The results of the spatial autocorrelation analysis and the spatiotemporal clustering analysis showed that diabetes patients are mainly clustered near the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei region, and that the prevalence of diabetes clusters is waning. Age, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and smoking history were all diabetes risk factors (p < 0.05), but the spatial heterogeneity of these factors was weak. Compared with the binary logistic regression model, the random forest model showed better accuracy in assessing diabetes risk. According to the assessment risk map generated by the random forest model, the northeast region and the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei region are high-risk areas for diabetes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhenyi Wang
- Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
- GIS Technology Engineering Research Centre of West-China Resources and Environment of Educational Ministry, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
| | - Wen Dong
- Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
- GIS Technology Engineering Research Centre of West-China Resources and Environment of Educational Ministry, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
| | - Kun Yang
- Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
- GIS Technology Engineering Research Centre of West-China Resources and Environment of Educational Ministry, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
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