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Kenzie ES, Seater M, Wakeland W, Coronado GD, Davis MM. System dynamics modeling for cancer prevention and control: A systematic review. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0294912. [PMID: 38039316 PMCID: PMC10691687 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0294912] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2023] [Accepted: 11/13/2023] [Indexed: 12/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Cancer prevention and control requires consideration of complex interactions between multilevel factors. System dynamics modeling, which consists of diagramming and simulation approaches for understanding and managing such complexity, is being increasingly applied to cancer prevention and control, but the breadth, characteristics, and quality of these studies is not known. We searched PubMed, Scopus, APA PsycInfo, and eight peer-reviewed journals to identify cancer-related studies that used system dynamics modeling. A dual review process was used to determine eligibility. Included studies were assessed using quality criteria adapted from prior literature and mapped onto the cancer control continuum. Characteristics of studies and models were abstracted and qualitatively synthesized. 32 studies met our inclusion criteria. A mix of simulation and diagramming approaches were used to address diverse topics, including chemotherapy treatments (16%), interventions to reduce tobacco or e-cigarettes use (16%), and cancer risk from environmental contamination (13%). Models spanned all focus areas of the cancer control continuum, with treatment (44%), prevention (34%), and detection (31%) being the most common. The quality assessment of studies was low, particularly for simulation approaches. Diagramming-only studies more often used participatory approaches. Involvement of participants, description of model development processes, and proper calibration and validation of models showed the greatest room for improvement. System dynamics modeling can illustrate complex interactions and help identify potential interventions across the cancer control continuum. Prior efforts have been hampered by a lack of rigor and transparency regarding model development and testing. Supportive infrastructure for increasing awareness, accessibility, and further development of best practices of system dynamics for multidisciplinary cancer research is needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erin S. Kenzie
- OHSU-PSU School of Public Health, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, Oregon, United States of America
- Systems Science Program, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, United States of America
- Oregon Rural Practice-Based Research Network, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, Oregon, United States of America
| | - Mellodie Seater
- Oregon Rural Practice-Based Research Network, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, Oregon, United States of America
| | - Wayne Wakeland
- Systems Science Program, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, United States of America
| | - Gloria D. Coronado
- Kaiser Permanente Center for Health Research, Portland, Oregon, United States of America
| | - Melinda M. Davis
- OHSU-PSU School of Public Health, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, Oregon, United States of America
- Department of Family Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, Oregon, United States of America
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Vu GT, Stjepanović D, Sun T, Leung J, Chung J, Connor J, Thai PK, Gartner CE, Tran BX, Hall WD, Chan G. Predicting the long-term effects of electronic cigarette use on population health: a systematic review of modelling studies. Tob Control 2023:tc-2022-057748. [PMID: 37295941 DOI: 10.1136/tc-2022-057748] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2022] [Accepted: 05/29/2023] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To systematically review and synthesise the findings of modelling studies on the population impacts of e-cigarette use and to identify potential gaps requiring future investigation. DATA SOURCE AND STUDY SELECTION Four databases were searched for modelling studies of e-cigarette use on population health published between 2010 and 2023. A total of 32 studies were included. DATA EXTRACTION Data on study characteristics, model attributes and estimates of population impacts including health outcomes and smoking prevalence were extracted from each article. The findings were synthesised narratively. DATA SYNTHESIS The introduction of e-cigarettes was predicted to lead to decreased smoking-related mortality, increased quality-adjusted life-years and reduced health system costs in 29 studies. Seventeen studies predicted a lower prevalence of cigarette smoking. Models that predicted negative population impacts assumed very high e-cigarette initiation rates among non-smokers and that e-cigarette use would discourage smoking cessation by a large margin. The majority of the studies were based on US population data and few studies included factors other than smoking status, such as jurisdictional tobacco control policies or social influence. CONCLUSIONS A population increase in e-cigarette use may result in lower smoking prevalence and reduced burden of disease in the long run, especially if their use can be restricted to assisting smoking cessation. Given the assumption-dependent nature of modelling outcomes, future modelling studies should consider incorporating different policy options in their projection exercises, using shorter time horizons and expanding their modelling to low-income and middle-income countries where smoking rates remain relatively high.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giang T Vu
- National Centre for Youth Substance Use Research, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Psychology, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Daniel Stjepanović
- National Centre for Youth Substance Use Research, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Tianze Sun
- National Centre for Youth Substance Use Research, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Psychology, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Janni Leung
- National Centre for Youth Substance Use Research, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Psychology, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Jack Chung
- National Centre for Youth Substance Use Research, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Psychology, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Jason Connor
- National Centre for Youth Substance Use Research, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Psychology, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Discipline of Psychiatry, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Phong K Thai
- Queensland Alliance for Environmental Health Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Coral E Gartner
- NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence on Achieving the Tobacco Endgame, School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Bach Xuan Tran
- Institute for Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Viet Nam
- Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Wayne D Hall
- National Centre for Youth Substance Use Research, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Queensland Alliance for Environmental Health Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Gary Chan
- National Centre for Youth Substance Use Research, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
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Guo Z, Shen J, Li L. Identifying the implementation effect of technology transfer policy using system dynamics: a case study in Liaoning, China. JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER 2022:1-29. [PMID: 36597438 PMCID: PMC9798955 DOI: 10.1007/s10961-022-09989-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/17/2022] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
Given that technology transfer provides an important boost for promoting national economic development, technology transfer policy (TTP) has attracted more and more attention from academia and industry. The government issued many policies. However, the implementation effect of TTP still needs to be clarified. This study is carried out from the progressive level of "text content-influence path-implementation effect.'' It aims to adopt a systematic analysis method to analyze policy tools and policy implementation stages, then builds a conceptual framework of the influence path of TTP. Then the relationship between variables in the qualitative model was clarified, and the system dynamics (SD) model was used to build a quantitative model with four feedback loops. Finally, taking Liaoning, China as an example, the system simulation and sensitivity analysis of the main parameters are implemented in Vensim PLE. Different policy tools have different roles in the TTP impact stages of research, transfer, and industrialization. Based on the data of 2013-1019, the SD model constructed in this paper can be used to predict the implementation effect of TTP during 2020-2015. Simulation and sensitivity analysis results provide practical enlightenment for government departments to improve the implementation effect of the existing TTP. This study also provides other researchers with a systematic understanding for improving the implementation effect of TTP with a "text content-influence path-implementation effect" conduction chain and provides new insights for further research on TTP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhenxu Guo
- School of Civil Engineering, Central South University, 22 Shaoshan South Road, Tianxin District, Changsha, 410083 People’s Republic of China
| | - Jiarui Shen
- School of Management, Shenyang Jianzhu University, 25 Hunnan Road, Hunnan District, Shenyang, 110168 People’s Republic of China
| | - Lihong Li
- School of Management, Shenyang Jianzhu University, 25 Hunnan Road, Hunnan District, Shenyang, 110168 People’s Republic of China
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Safiri S, Nejadghaderi SA, Abdollahi M, Carson‐Chahhoud K, Kaufman JS, Bragazzi NL, Moradi‐Lakeh M, Mansournia MA, Sullman MJM, Almasi‐Hashiani A, Taghizadieh A, Collins GS, Kolahi A. Global, regional, and national burden of cancers attributable to tobacco smoking in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019. Cancer Med 2022; 11:2662-2678. [PMID: 35621231 PMCID: PMC9249976 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.4647] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2021] [Revised: 01/17/2022] [Accepted: 02/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cancers are leading causes of mortality and morbidity, with smoking being recognized as a significant risk factor for many types of cancer. We aimed to report the cancer burden attributable to tobacco smoking by sex, age, socio-demographic index (SDI), and cancer type in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. METHODS The burden of cancers attributable to smoking was reported between 1990 and 2019, based upon the Comparative Risk Assessment approach used in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. RESULTS Globally, in 2019 there were an estimated 2.5 million cancer-related deaths (95% UI: 2.3 to 2.7) and 56.4 million DALYs (51.3 to 61.7) attributable to smoking. The global age-standardized death and DALY rates of cancers attributable to smoking per 100,000 decreased by 23.0% (-29.5 to -15.8) and 28.6% (-35.1 to -21.5), respectively, over the period 1990-2019. Central Europe (50.4 [44.4 to 57.6]) and Western Sub-Saharan Africa (6.7 [5.7 to 8.0]) had the highest and lowest age-standardized death rates, respectively, for cancers attributable to smoking. In 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate of cancers attributable to smoking was highest in Greenland (2224.0 [1804.5 to 2678.8]) and lowest in Ethiopia (72.2 [51.2 to 98.0]). Also in 2019, the global number of DALYs was highest in the 65-69 age group and there was a positive association between SDI and the age-standardized DALY rate. CONCLUSIONS The results of this study clearly illustrate that renewed efforts are required to increase utilization of evidence-based smoking cessation support in order to reduce the burden of smoking-related diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saeid Safiri
- Aging Research InstituteTabriz University of Medical SciencesTabrizIran
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of MedicineTabriz University of Medical SciencesTabrizIran
| | - Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi
- Aging Research InstituteTabriz University of Medical SciencesTabrizIran
- Systematic Review and Meta‐analysis Expert Group (SRMEG)Universal Scientific Education and Research Network (USERN)TehranIran
| | - Morteza Abdollahi
- Social Determinants of Health Research CenterShahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesTehranIran
| | - Kristin Carson‐Chahhoud
- Australian Centre for Precision HealthUniversity of South AustraliaAdelaideSouth AustraliaAustralia
- School of MedicineUniversity of AdelaideAdelaideSouth AustraliaAustralia
| | - Jay S. Kaufman
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, Faculty of MedicineMcGill UniversityQuebecCanada
| | | | - Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research CenterIran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran
| | - Mohammad Ali Mansournia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public HealthTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran
| | - Mark J. M. Sullman
- Department of Life and Health SciencesUniversity of NicosiaNicosiaCyprus
- Department of Social SciencesUniversity of NicosiaNicosiaCyprus
| | - Amir Almasi‐Hashiani
- Department of Epidemiology, School of HealthArak University of Medical SciencesArakIran
| | - Ali Taghizadieh
- Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases Research CenterTabriz University of Medical SciencesTabrizIran
| | - Gary S. Collins
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, NDORMS, Botnar Research CentreUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
- NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research CentreOxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation TrustOxfordUK
| | - Ali‐Asghar Kolahi
- Social Determinants of Health Research CenterShahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesTehranIran
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