What will make a difference? Assessing the impact of policy and non-policy scenarios on estimations of the future GP workforce

An assessment of the spatial distribution of bulk billing-only GP services in Australia in relation to area-based socio-economic status

BACKGROUND

The accessibility to affordable primary healthcare services contributes to population health and health equity. A key aspect to accessibility is the geographical distribution of primary healthcare services. Limited studies have assessed the nationwide spatial distribution of bulk billing-only medical practices or 'no-fee' services. The aim of this study was to provide a nationwide approximation of bulk billing-only services and evaluate the socio-demographic status and population characteristics in relation to the distribution of bulk billing-only GP services.

METHODS

The methodology in this study used Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to map the locations of all bulk bulking-only medical practices collected in mid-2020 and linked this with population data. The population data and practice locations were analysed at the level of Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) regions and used the most recent Census data.

RESULTS

The study sample included (n =2095) bulk billing-only medical practice locations. The nationwide average Population-to-Practice (PtP) ratio was 1 practice to 8529 people for regions with access to bulk billing-only practice, and 57.4% of the Australian population lives within an SA2 that has access to at least one bulk billing-only medical practices. No significant associations were identified between practice distribution and area socio-economic status.

CONCLUSION

The study identified areas with low access to affordable GP services, with many SA2 regions having no access to bulk billing-only practices. Findings also indicate that there was no association between area socio-economic status and the distribution of bulk billing-only services.

Managing uncertainty in forecasting health workforce demand using the Robust Workforce Planning Framework: the example of midwives in Belgium

BACKGROUND

In Belgium, the Planning Commission for Medical Supply is responsible for monitoring human resources for health (HRH) and ultimately proposing workforce quotas. It is supported by the Planning Unit for the Supply of the Health Professions. This Unit quantifies and forecasts the workforce in the healthcare professions on the basis of a stock and flow model, based on trends observed in the past. In 2019, the Planning Unit asked the KCE (Belgian Health Care Knowledge Centre) to develop additional forecasting scenarios for the midwifery workforce, to complement the standard historical trend approach. The aim of this paper is to present the development of such forecasting scenarios.

METHODS

The Robust Workforce Planning Framework, developed by the Centre for Workforce Intelligence in the UK was used to develop alternative midwifery workforce scenarios. The framework consists of four steps (Horizon scanning, Scenario generation, Workforce modelling, and Policy analysis), the first two of which were undertaken by KCE, using two online surveys and five workshops with stakeholders.

RESULTS

Three alternative scenarios are proposed. The first scenario (close to the current situation) envisages pregnancy and maternity care centred on gynaecologists working either in a hospital or in private practice. The second scenario describes an organisation of midwife-led care in hospitals. In the third scenario, care is primarily organised by primary care practitioners (midwives and general practitioners) in outpatient settings.

CONCLUSIONS

The Robust Workforce Planning Framework provides an opportunity to adjust the modelling of the health workforce and inform decision-makers about the impact of their future decisions on the health workforce.

General practice registrars training part-time: a cross-sectional analysis of prevalence and associations

While GPs are working fewer clinical hours and many GP trainees (registrars) do not foresee themselves working full-time in clinical practice, little is known of the epidemiology of registrars training part-time. We aimed to establish the prevalence of general practice part-time training (PTT), and part-time registrars' characteristics and practice patterns. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted of data from the Registrar Clinical Encounters in Training project, an ongoing cohort study of Australian GP registrars' clinical experiences over 60 consecutive consultations in each of three training terms. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted with the outcome 'training part-time'. 1790 registrars contributed data for 4,135 registrar-terms and 241,945 clinical encounters. Nine hundred and twenty-two registrar-terms (22%, 95%CI:21%-24%) and 52,339 clinical encounters (22%, 95%CI:21%-22%) involved PTT. Factors associated with PTT were registrar characteristics - female gender, older age, in a later training stage, performing other regular medical work; practice characteristics - working in a higher socioeconomic status area; and patient characteristics - seeing more patients new to the registrar and seeing more patients from a non-English-speaking background. No consultation or consultation action factors were significantly associated with PTT. Registrars, practices, and patient associations have GP training implications. The lack of registrar consultation or consultation action associations suggests there may be limited impact of PTT on patient care.

Projecting health labor market dynamics for a health system in transition: planning for a resilient health workforce in Saudi Arabia

Background

Health workforce planning is critical for health systems to safeguard the ability to afford, train, recruit, and retain the appropriate number and mix of health workers. This balance is especially important when macroeconomic structures are also reforming. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is moving toward greater diversification, privatization, and resiliency; health sectorreform is a key pillar of this transition.

Methods

We used the Ministry of Health Yearbook data on the number of workers and health expenditures from 2007 to 2018 and projected health labor market supply and demand of workers through 2030, evaluated the potential shortages and surpluses, and simulated different policy scenarios to identify relevant interventions. We further focused on projections for health workers who are Saudi nationals and health worker demand within the public sector (versus the private sector) to inform national objectives of reducing dependency on foreign workers and better deploying public sector resources.

Results

We projected the overall health labor market to demand 9.07 physicians and nurses per 1,000 population (356,514) in 2030; the public sector will account for approximately 67% of this overall demand. Compared to a projected supply of 10.16 physicians and nurses per 1,000 population (399,354), we estimated an overall modest surplus of about 42,840 physicians and nurses in 2030. However, only about 17% of these workers are estimated to be Saudi nationals, for whom there will be a demand shortage of 287,895 workers. Among policy scenarios considered, increasing work hours had the largest effect on reducing shortages of Saudi workers, followed by bridge programs for training more nurses. Government resources can also be redirected to supporting more Saudi nurses while still ensuring adequate numbers of physicians to meet service delivery goals in 2030.

Conclusion

Despite projected overall balance in the labor market for health workers in 2030, without policy interventions, severe gaps in the Saudi workforce will persist and limit progress toward health system resiliency in Saudi Arabia. Both supply- and demand-side policy interventions should be considered, prioritizing those that increase productivity among Saudi health workers, enhance training for nurses, and strategically redeploy financial resources toward employing these workers.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12992-021-00747-8.

The health workforce demand: a systematic literature review

Understanding imbalances between the supply and demand of the human resour- ces for health (HRH) is essential for enhancing health outcomes. Addressing the HRH demand is particularly challenging, especially given the deficit of accurate data and surplus of unresolved methodological flaws. This study presents a systematic review of the literature surrounding HRH demand and answers the following key questions: How has HRH demand been addressed? What are the harms and barriers that accompany HRH demand modeling? This systematic review was performed following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses) statement. Relevant keywords were used in a thorough search of the PubMed/MEDLINE, SCOPUS, and Web of Science databases. A total of 2,599 papers were retrieved and evaluated according to their title and abstract. Of these, the full-text of 400 papers was analyzed, 53 of which successfully met the inclusion criteria in our study. While the topic's relevance is widespread, it still lacks a validated approach to model HRH demand adequately. The main characteristics of the applied methods are presented, such as their application complexity by health policymakers. Opportunities and orientations for further research are also highlighted.

Adequacy of Australia's GP workforce: estimating supply and demand, 2005-06 to 2015-16

Objective A 2011 Australian study calculated average annual general practitioner (GP) utilisation and predicted numbers required to meet demand to 2020. The objective of the present study is to calculate average annual GP utilisation in 2015-16 compared with clinical demand predicted in 2005-06. Methods Demand was calculated from Medicare Benefits Schedule, Department of Veterans' Affairs and Australian Bureau of Statistics data. Length of consultation and average clinical hours worked per week (from 2002-03 to 2015-16) was drawn from GP self-reported data collected through the Bettering the Evaluation And Care of Health (BEACH) program. GP workforce numbers were sourced from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 'Medical practitioners workforce 2015' report. Results Predicted demand from 2005-06 to 2009-10 approximated GP supply. Beyond 2011, approximately 2674 additional GPs were required in 2015-16 to maintain the average annual 2005-06 GP workload. An additional 5941 GPs were required to meet the increase in clinical demand (for GP services to patients) from 2005-06 to 2015-16. Conclusions The number of GP clinical hours worked decreased, and clinical demand increased. Ongoing efforts are required to ensure the supply of GPs to meet the clinical demand of Australia's aging population. What is known about this topic? For the past three decades there has been concern about the supply of GPs in Australia. In recent years the Australian Government has taken several steps to improve access to GP services by increasing the overall supply of GPs and encouraging a more even distribution of GPs across Australia. A 2011 Australian study calculated average annual GP service utilisation and predicted the number of GPs required to meet clinical demand to 2020. There are current concerns that the GP workforce has reached a state of oversupply. What does this paper add? This study concludes that the GP workforce is not in a state of oversupply, confirming that patient clinical demand increased through both population growth and the aging of the population. Although the number of GPs increased, the number of clinical hours worked by (male) GPs decreased. Therefore, the rise in the number of GPs did not result in a proportional rise in GP workforce capacity. Clearly standardised definitions and inclusions for counting the GP workforce would improve accuracy in measuring this section of the health workforce. What are the implications for practitioners? GP workforce supply will require ongoing monitoring over coming years considering the increasing population, the aging of the population, declining clinical GP working hours and the approaching mass retirement of older GPs.

The promise of complementarity: Using the methods of foresight for health workforce planning

Health workforce planning aims to meet a health system's needs with a sustainable and fit-for-purpose workforce, although its efficacy is reduced in conditions of uncertainty. This PhD breakthrough article offers foresight as a means of addressing this uncertainty and models its complementarity in the context of the health workforce planning problem. The article summarises the findings of a two-case multi-phase mixed method study that incorporates actor analysis, scenario development and policy Delphi. This reveals a few dominant actors of considerable influence who are in conflict over a few critical workforce issues. Using these to augment normative scenarios, developed from existing clinically developed model of care visions, a number of exploratory alternative descriptions of future workforce situations are produced for each case. Their analysis reveals that these scenarios are a reasonable facsimile of plausible futures, though some are favoured over others. Policy directions to support these favoured aspects can also be identified. This novel approach offers workforce planners and policy makers some guidance on the use of complimentary data, methods to overcome the limitations of conventional workforce forecasting and a framework for exploring the complexities and ambiguities of a health workforce's evolution.

The never ending road: improving, adapting and refining a needs-based model to estimate future general practitioner requirements in two Australian states

BACKGROUND

Health workforce planning models have been developed to estimate the future health workforce requirements for a population whom they serve and have been used to inform policy decisions.

OBJECTIVES

To adapt and further develop a need-based GP workforce simulation model to incorporate current and estimated geographic distribution of patients and GPs.

METHODS

A need-based simulation model that estimates the supply of GPs and levels of services required in South Australia (SA) was adapted and applied to the Western Australian (WA) workforce. The main outcome measure was the differences in the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) GPs supplied and required from 2013 to 2033.

RESULTS

The base scenario estimated a shortage of GPs in WA from 2019 onwards with a shortage of 493 FTE GPs in 2033, while for SA, estimates showed an oversupply over the projection period. The WA urban and rural models estimated an urban shortage of GPs over this period. A reduced international medical graduate recruitment scenario resulted in estimated shortfalls of GPs by 2033 for WA and SA. The WA-specific scenarios of lower population projections and registrar work value resulted in a reduced shortage of FTE GPs in 2033, while unfilled training places increased the shortfall of FTE GPs in 2033.

CONCLUSIONS

The simulation model incorporates contextual differences to its structure that allows within and cross jurisdictional comparisons of workforce estimations. It also provides greater insights into the drivers of supply and demand and the impact of changes in workforce policy, promoting more informed decision-making.