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Vervoort D, Hirode G, Lindsay TF, Tam DY, Kapila V, de Mestral C. One-time screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm in Ontario, Canada: a model-based cost-utility analysis. CMAJ 2024; 196:E112-E120. [PMID: 38316457 PMCID: PMC10843437 DOI: 10.1503/cmaj.230913] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/29/2023] [Indexed: 02/07/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Screening programs for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) are not available in Canada. We sought to determine the effectiveness and costutility of AAA screening in Ontario. METHODS We compared one-time ultrasonography-based AAA screening for people aged 65 years to no screening using a fully probabilistic Markov model with a lifetime horizon. We estimated life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), AAA-related deaths, number needed to screen to prevent 1 AAA-related death and costs (in Canadian dollars) from the perspective of the Ontario Ministry of Health. We retrieved model inputs from literature, Statistics Canada, and the Ontario Case Costing Initiative. RESULTS Screening reduced AAA-related deaths by 84.9% among males and 81.0% among females. Compared with no screening, screening resulted in 0.04 (18.96 v. 18.92) additional life-years and 0.04 (14.95 v. 14.91) additional QALYs at an incremental cost of $80 per person among males. Among females, screening resulted in 0.02 (21.25 v. 21.23) additional life-years and 0.01 (16.20 v. 16.19) additional QALYs at an incremental cost of $11 per person. At a willingness-to-pay of $50 000 per year, screening was cost-effective in 84% (males) and 90% (females) of model iterations. Screening was increasingly cost-effective with higher AAA prevalence. INTERPRETATION Screening for AAA among people aged 65 years in Ontario was associated with fewer AAA-related deaths and favourable cost-effectiveness. To maximize QALY gains per dollar spent and AAA-related deaths prevented, AAA screening programs should be designed to ensure that populations with high prevalence of AAA participate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominique Vervoort
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Vervoort, Tam, de Mestral), Division of Cardiac Surgery (Vervoort, Tam) and Institute of Medical Science (Hirode), University of Toronto; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Hirode), Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network; Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery (Lindsay), Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Vascular Surgery (Kapila), William Osler Health System, Brampton, Ont.; Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery (de Mestral), St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Grishma Hirode
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Vervoort, Tam, de Mestral), Division of Cardiac Surgery (Vervoort, Tam) and Institute of Medical Science (Hirode), University of Toronto; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Hirode), Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network; Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery (Lindsay), Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Vascular Surgery (Kapila), William Osler Health System, Brampton, Ont.; Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery (de Mestral), St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Thomas F Lindsay
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Vervoort, Tam, de Mestral), Division of Cardiac Surgery (Vervoort, Tam) and Institute of Medical Science (Hirode), University of Toronto; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Hirode), Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network; Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery (Lindsay), Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Vascular Surgery (Kapila), William Osler Health System, Brampton, Ont.; Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery (de Mestral), St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Derrick Y Tam
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Vervoort, Tam, de Mestral), Division of Cardiac Surgery (Vervoort, Tam) and Institute of Medical Science (Hirode), University of Toronto; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Hirode), Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network; Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery (Lindsay), Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Vascular Surgery (Kapila), William Osler Health System, Brampton, Ont.; Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery (de Mestral), St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Varun Kapila
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Vervoort, Tam, de Mestral), Division of Cardiac Surgery (Vervoort, Tam) and Institute of Medical Science (Hirode), University of Toronto; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Hirode), Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network; Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery (Lindsay), Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Vascular Surgery (Kapila), William Osler Health System, Brampton, Ont.; Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery (de Mestral), St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Charles de Mestral
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Vervoort, Tam, de Mestral), Division of Cardiac Surgery (Vervoort, Tam) and Institute of Medical Science (Hirode), University of Toronto; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Hirode), Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network; Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery (Lindsay), Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Vascular Surgery (Kapila), William Osler Health System, Brampton, Ont.; Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery (de Mestral), St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
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