Potential gains in health expectancy by improving lifestyle: an application for European regions

Identifying best modelling practices for tobacco control policy simulations: a systematic review and a novel quality assessment framework

BACKGROUND

Policy simulation models (PSMs) have been used extensively to shape health policies before real-world implementation and evaluate post-implementation impact. This systematic review aimed to examine best practices, identify common pitfalls in tobacco control PSMs and propose a modelling quality assessment framework.

METHODS

We searched five databases to identify eligible publications from July 2013 to August 2019. We additionally included papers from Feirman et al for studies before July 2013. Tobacco control PSMs that project tobacco use and tobacco-related outcomes from smoking policies were included. We extracted model inputs, structure and outputs data for models used in two or more included papers. Using our proposed quality assessment framework, we scored these models on population representativeness, policy effectiveness evidence, simulated smoking histories, included smoking-related diseases, exposure-outcome lag time, transparency, sensitivity analysis, validation and equity.

FINDINGS

We found 146 eligible papers and 25 distinct models. Most models used population data from public or administrative registries, and all performed sensitivity analysis. However, smoking behaviour was commonly modelled into crude categories of smoking status. Eight models only presented overall changes in mortality rather than explicitly considering smoking-related diseases. Only four models reported impacts on health inequalities, and none offered the source code. Overall, the higher scored models achieved higher citation rates.

CONCLUSIONS

While fragments of good practices were widespread across the reviewed PSMs, only a few included a 'critical mass' of the good practices specified in our quality assessment framework. This framework might, therefore, potentially serve as a benchmark and support sharing of good modelling practices.

On the Use of Aggregate Survey Data for Estimating Regional Major Depressive Disorder Prevalence

Major depression is a severe mental disorder that is associated with strongly increased mortality. The quantification of its prevalence on regional levels represents an important indicator for public health reporting. In addition to that, it marks a crucial basis for further explorative studies regarding environmental determinants of the condition. However, assessing the distribution of major depression in the population is challenging. The topic is highly sensitive, and national statistical institutions rarely have administrative records on this matter. Published prevalence figures as well as available auxiliary data are typically derived from survey estimates. These are often subject to high uncertainty due to large sampling variances and do not allow for sound regional analysis. We propose a new area-level Poisson mixed model that accounts for measurement errors in auxiliary data to close this gap. We derive the empirical best predictor under the model and present a parametric bootstrap estimator for the mean squared error. A method of moments algorithm for consistent model parameter estimation is developed. Simulation experiments are conducted to show the effectiveness of the approach. The methodology is applied to estimate the major depression prevalence in Germany on regional levels crossed by sex and age groups.

Development of biodegradable zein-based bilayer coatings for drug-eluting stents

Drug-eluting stents (DES) have been widely used for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. Nevertheless, chronic inflammation and delayed re-endothelialization still represent challenges for their clinical use. In the present work, we developed novel bilayer coatings for stent applications that could overcome these limitations, exclusively using biodegradable plant-based drugs and polymers. In particular, stainless steel surfaces were coated with rutin-loaded zein (the active layer) and cross-linked alginate (the sacrificial layer) via facile dip and spray coating methods. Various mechanical tests and analysis tools, such as infrared spectroscopy, water contact angle measurements, and scanning electron microscopy were used to characterize the coated surfaces. Degradation and release studies of the films were extensively carried out and compared. The release rate of rutin from the bilayer coating reached 66.1 ± 3.2% within 24 hours of incubation (initial burst period), while the rest of the drug was released over 21 days in a sustained manner. Antioxidant assays confirmed that rutin retained its free radical scavenging ability after being eluted in phosphate buffer at 37 °C. In vitro results with human fibroblasts and endothelial cells suggested that the coating materials and their degradation products are highly biocompatible. In conclusion, our novel drug-eluting coatings, fabricated with natural biodegradable polymers, are promising materials for DES applications, allowing a sustained drug delivery and improving the biocompatibility of cardiovascular implanted devices.

l2-Penalized temporal logit-mixed models for the estimation of regional obesity prevalence over time

Obesity is considered to be one of the primary health risks in modern industrialized societies. Estimating the evolution of its prevalence over time is an essential element of public health reporting. This requires the application of suitable statistical methods on epidemiologic data with substantial local detail. Generalized linear-mixed models with medical treatment records as covariates mark a powerful combination for this purpose. However, the task is methodologically challenging. Disease frequencies are subject to both regional and temporal heterogeneity. Medical treatment records often show strong internal correlation due to diagnosis-related grouping. This frequently causes excessive variance in model parameter estimation due to rank-deficiency problems. Further, generalized linear-mixed models are often estimated via approximate inference methods as their likelihood functions do not have closed forms. These problems combined lead to unacceptable uncertainty in prevalence estimates over time. We propose an l₂-penalized temporal logit-mixed model to solve these issues. We derive empirical best predictors and present a parametric bootstrap to estimate their mean-squared errors. A novel penalized maximum approximate likelihood algorithm for model parameter estimation is stated. With this new methodology, the regional obesity prevalence in Germany from 2009 to 2012 is estimated. We find that the national prevalence ranges between 15 and 16%, with significant regional clustering in eastern Germany.

Soluble guanylate cyclase stimulation in late gestation does not mitigate asymmetric intrauterine growth restriction or cardiovascular risk induced by placental ischemia in the rat

Stimulation of soluble guanylate cyclase (sGC) improves fetal growth at gestational day 20 in the reduced uterine perfusion pressure (RUPP) rat model of placental ischemia suggesting a role for sGC in the etiology of intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR). This study tested the hypothesis that stimulation of sGC until birth attenuates asymmetric IUGR mitigating increased cardiovascular risk in offspring. Sham or RUPP surgery was performed at gestational day 14 (G14); vehicle or the sGC stimulator Riociguat (10 mg/kg/day sc) was administered G14 until birth. Birth weight was reduced in offspring from RUPP [intrauterine growth restricted (IUGR)], sGC RUPP (sGC IUGR), and sGC Sham (sGC Control) compared with Sham (Control). Crown circumference was maintained, but abdominal circumference was reduced in IUGR and sGC IUGR compared with Control indicative of asymmetrical growth. Gestational length was prolonged in sGC RUPP, and survival at birth was reduced in sGC IUGR. Probability of survival to postnatal day 2 was also significantly reduced in IUGR and sGC IUGR versus Control and in sGC IUGR versus IUGR. At 4 mo of age, blood pressure was increased in male IUGR and sGC IUGR but not male sGC Control born with symmetrical IUGR. Global longitudinal strain was increased and stroke volume was decreased in male IUGR and sGC IUGR compared with Control. Thus late gestational stimulation of sGC does not mitigate asymmetric IUGR or increased cardiovascular risk in male sGC IUGR. Furthermore, late gestational stimulation of sGC is associated with symmetrical growth restriction in sGC Control implicating contraindications in normal pregnancy.NEW & NOTEWORTHY The importance of the soluble guanylate cyclase-cGMP pathway in a rat model of placental ischemia differs during critical windows of development, implicating other factors may be critical mediators of impaired fetal growth in the final stages of gestation. Moreover, increased blood pressure at 4 mo of age in male intrauterine growth restriction offspring is associated with impaired cardiac function including an increase in global longitudinal strain in conjunction with a decrease in stroke volume, ejection fraction, and cardiac output.

Improving the Care of Older Patients by Decreasing Potentially Inappropriate Medications, Potential Medication Omissions, and Serious Drug Events Using Pharmacogenomic Data about Variability in Metabolizing Many Medications by Seniors

Polypharmacy, potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) identified by the American Geriatrics Society and Screening Tool of Older People's Prescriptions (STOPP), potential prescribing omissions (PPOs) identified by Screening Tool to Alert to Right Treatment (START) and serious drug events (SDEs), are major problems for seniors. They correlate with increased risks of rehospitalization and death within six months of hospital discharge. About 75% of commonly prescribed medications are metabolized by P450 cytochrome enzymes. Electronic medical records (EMRs) providing integrated comprehensive pharmacogenomic advice are available only in very large health organizations. The study design of this article is a cross-sectional analysis of the American Geriatrics Society (AGS) and STOPP PIM and START PPO databases integrated with three P450 cytochrome enzyme databases (Flockhart Tables, DrugBank, and Rx Files) and the data are reported using the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) Statement: guidelines for reporting observational studies. To enable optimally prudent prescribing this article presents for primary care physicians and physicians in remote or rural areas without access to such services a comprehensive integration of the data on PIM and PPO medications with the data on the P450 cytochrome isoforms that metabolize these medications. Additionally presented are the medications metabolized by multiple isoforms and medications that inhibit or induce individual or multiple isoforms. The most extensive metabolic activities involve the central nervous system, anxiolytic, antidepressive, antipsychotic, musculoskeletal, and cardiovascular drugs. The P450 cytochrome isoforms that metabolize the most medications are 3A457, 2C9, 2D6, and 2C19 and nearly all central nervous systems medications compete to be metabolized by 3A457. Medications with the largest inducer or inhibitor activity are highlighted and also a list of commonly prescribed medications that are neither PIMs nor PPOs but compete for metabolism by the same isoforms.

Simulating future public health benefits of tobacco control interventions: a systematic review of models

BACKGROUND

To prioritise tobacco control interventions, simulating their health impacts is valuable. We undertook a systematic review of tobacco intervention simulation models to assess model structure and input variations that may render model outputs non-comparable.

METHODS

We applied a Medline search with keywords intersecting modelling and tobacco. Papers were limited to those modelling health outputs (eg, mortality, health-adjusted life years), and at least two of cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Data were extracted for each simulation model with ≥3 arising papers, including: model type, untimed or with time steps and trends in business-as-usual (BAU) tobacco prevalence and epidemiology.

RESULTS

Of 1911 papers, 186 met the inclusion criteria, including 13 eligible simulation models. The SimSmoke model had the largest number of publications (n=46), followed by Benefits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes (n=12) and Tobacco Policy Model (n=10). Two of 13 models only estimated deaths averted, 1 had no time steps, 5 had no future trends in BAU tobacco prevalence, 9 had no future trends in BAU disease epidemiology and 7 had no time lags from quitting tobacco to reversal of health harm.

CONCLUSIONS

Considerable heterogeneity exists in simulation models, making outputs substantively non-comparable between models. Ranking of interventions by one model may be valid. However, this may not be true if, for example, interventions that differentially affect age groups (eg, a tobacco-free generation policy vs increased cessation among adults) do not account for plausible future trends. Greater standardisation of model structures and outputs will allow comparison across models and countries, and for comparisons of the impact of tobacco control interventions with other preventive interventions.